Upsales Technology AB (UPSALE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr387.28M
• Dividend Yield: 4.69%
• Average Volume (3M): 15.77K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.28
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: SE
• Employees: 75
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 0.34
• Shares Outstanding: 16,838,375
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 10,817
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 15,768
• PEG Ratio: 1.20
• Price to Book (P/B): 30.68
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.70
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.23
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.57
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr166.10M

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: kr26.00 ▼(-22.16% Downside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/19/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/19/26

The score is driven primarily by strong cash-flow performance and continued profitability, partially offset by the significant 2025 gross-margin collapse that adds uncertainty to earnings quality. Technicals are a notable drag due to a clear downtrend, while valuation is supported by a moderate P/E and high dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Cash generation

Consistent positive operating and free cash flow, with a step-up in 2025 and FCF/net income ~0.93, shows durable cash-generation. This supports reinvestment, shareholder returns and reduces reliance on external financing, improving operational flexibility over the next several months.

Modest leverage

Modest leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.30 and limited prior debt) lowers financial risk and interest burden. That balance-sheet flexibility makes it easier to fund product development, customer success or selective M&A without stressing operations, supporting medium-term strategic options.

Consistent profitability

Sustained positive earnings and improving net margin (to ~14.8% in 2025), alongside notable EPS growth, indicate operational scalability of the SaaS model. Continued profitability underpins reinvestment capacity and supports durable cash flows and dividend potential over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Gross margin collapse

A sharp structural decline in gross margin (to ~18.5% in 2025 from ~61–65% historically) materially weakens unit economics. If persistent, this alters SaaS profitability dynamics, reduces margin sustainability and raises questions about cost structure, pricing or revenue mix that affect long-term earnings quality.

Revenue volatility

An extreme revenue swing (−4.8% in 2024 to +265.6% in 2025) suggests one-off items, recognition shifts or acquisitions. This non-linear pattern complicates forecasting, weakens visibility into recurring subscription growth and makes stable margin planning and capacity investments riskier.

Eroding equity buffer

A declining equity base amid stable or rising assets reduces balance-sheet cushioning. Even with modest debt, lower equity shrinks shock absorption capacity, could limit future capital returns or investment flexibility, and raises the chance of needing external financing if headwinds persist.

Upsales Technology AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Upsales Technology AB (publ) operates as a software-as-a-service company that develops and sells web-based business systems with a focus on sales, marketing, and analytics in Sweden and internationally. It offers Upsales platform, which provides database; analyzes sales history and gives suggestions on actions to win more deals; offers AI-based lead recommendations; helps discover untapped companies in customers' corporate networks; sets data-driven targets with AI-based accuracy, as well as provides automated forecasts and alerts for tracking pipeline activity; identifies customers on multiple boards for new sales opportunities; analyzes complex sales targets, including revenue recognition, subscription ARR/MRR, and profit margin; offers upsell and cross-sell alerts; and extracts sales data. The company also integrates for third party apps. Upsales Technology AB (publ) was founded in 2003 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Upsales Technology AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and consistent operating/free cash flow with solid profitability, but 2025 results show a major risk: gross margin collapsed to ~18.5% from ~61–65% historically and revenue jumped unusually (+265.6%), reducing comparability and raising durability concerns. Balance sheet leverage is modest (debt-to-equity ~0.30), though equity has trended down.

Income Statement

Profitability is solid for a software business, with net margin improving to ~14.8% in 2025 (annual) from ~12.8% in 2024, and earnings remaining positive across the period. Revenue growth, however, is volatile: strong expansion in 2021–2023, a decline in 2024 (-4.8%), then a sharp rebound in 2025 (+265.6%) that looks unusually high and suggests a non-linear jump versus the prior year. A key concern is the 2025 (annual) gross margin collapsing to ~18.5% versus ~61–65% historically, which materially changes the earnings quality and raises questions about cost structure or mix.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains modest, with 2025 (annual) debt-to-equity at ~0.30 (and no debt reported in prior years), which reduces financial risk relative to many peers. That said, equity has trended down from 2021–2025 while total assets are broadly stable to higher, implying weaker balance-sheet buffering over time. Returns on equity are very high in 2025 (annual) versus prior years, but given the unusual margin shift in 2025, the sustainability and quality of that profitability signal is less clear.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow is consistently positive and free cash flow is strong across all years, with a major step-up in 2025 (annual) and free cash flow growth of ~55.9%. Free cash flow tracks reported earnings well (free cash flow to net income ~0.93 in 2025, ~0.69 in 2024, ~0.91 in 2023), supporting earnings quality. A watch item is that operating cash flow relative to revenue stays around ~0.38–0.52, indicating good conversion but not a meaningfully improving trend despite the large 2025 revenue jump.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	152.03M	144.77M	152.14M	129.58M	93.14M
Gross Profit	28.18M	88.52M	94.77M	84.06M	51.56M
EBITDA	38.56M	32.35M	43.21M	35.71M	19.83M
Net Income	22.45M	18.48M	27.55M	22.50M	9.72M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	109.96M	103.35M	115.91M	124.50M	115.79M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	36.97M	47.44M	52.61M	64.44M	66.36M
Total Debt	5.56M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	91.63M	81.43M	85.64M	87.82M	77.12M
Stockholders Equity	18.33M	21.91M	30.27M	36.67M	38.68M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	32.64M	21.30M	29.42M	22.94M	29.06M
Operating Cash Flow	35.21M	30.73M	32.36M	33.69M	40.37M
Investing Cash Flow	-19.26M	-9.06M	-10.24M	-11.12M	-11.22M
Financing Cash Flow	-26.34M	-26.84M	-33.95M	-24.45M	1.81M

Upsales Technology AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GENI	75 Outperform	kr462.79M	14.91	―	3.48%	―	―
UPSALE	68 Neutral	kr387.28M	17.25	―	4.69%	―	―
CDMIL	62 Neutral	kr200.24M	-4,741.94	―	3.25%	-18.05%	-71.19%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%