Genova Property Group AB (GPG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr1.79B
• Dividend Yield: 1.67%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.68K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.41
• Revenue Growth: 0.71%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: SE
• Employees: 48
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Real Estate - Services
• EPS (TTM): 2.80
• Shares Outstanding: 45,613,330
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,004
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,682
• PEG Ratio: 0.09
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.62
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.56
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.79
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: kr56.00
• Price Target Upside: 42.49% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.68
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr555.92M

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: kr40.00 ▲(1.78% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/01/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/01/26

The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance: strong revenue momentum and improving cash generation are tempered by high and rising leverage alongside a thinner equity base. Valuation is a clear positive due to the low P/E and a modest dividend yield, while technicals detract as the stock trades below key moving averages with weak momentum signals.

Positive Factors

Integrated real estate business model

GPG's integrated model—from acquisition and project development to long-term leasing and property management—supports steady recurring income and operational control. Emphasis on commercial and community service properties tends to produce stable demand and lower churn, aiding long-term cash flow durability and asset utilization.

Sustained revenue growth

Consistent revenue expansion, including a marked acceleration in 2025, indicates growing rental income and successful project rollouts. Durable top-line growth supports scale economies, improves margin potential over time, and strengthens the company’s ability to fund maintenance, development and service existing debt obligations.

Consistent and improving free cash flow

Positive FCF across the period and a material improvement in 2025 show genuine cash-generating capacity. Strong cash conversion versus net income enhances resilience to earnings volatility, supports reinvestment in projects and servicing of interest, and provides a structural source for dividend or deleveraging initiatives.

Negative Factors

Elevated and rising leverage

A debt-to-equity ratio near 2.6 signals high financial leverage for a property developer/operator. This raises refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity, reduces flexibility for new projects, and increases downside risk if rental cash flows or asset values soften, making capital structure management a persistent constraint.

Thinning equity base

A declining equity base reduces the company’s loss-absorbing capacity and amplifies leverage metrics. For a leveraged property business, thinner equity increases vulnerability to valuation declines, covenant pressures, and limits strategic options—constraining long-term resilience versus peers with stronger capitalization.

High profitability volatility

Wide swings in earnings, including a sharp 2023 loss, undermine predictability of cash available for debt service and reinvestment. Such volatility complicates planning for maintenance, project pipelines and dividend policy, and raises the likelihood lenders or investors demand higher risk premia or tighter covenants over the medium term.

Genova Property Group AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Genova Property Group AB (publ) operates as a property company in Sweden. It develops, owns, and manages various commercial, community service, and residential properties in Greater Stockholm and the Uppsala Region. Genova Property Group AB (publ) was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Genova Property Group AB generates revenue primarily through the leasing and management of its property portfolio, which includes residential units and commercial spaces. The company earns rental income from tenants occupying its properties, which constitutes a significant portion of its revenue. Additionally, GPG engages in property development projects, allowing them to sell newly constructed properties or increase the value of existing ones through renovations and upgrades. Strategic partnerships with local governments and other organizations can also facilitate investment opportunities and access to financing, further contributing to the company's profitability. Overall, GPG's diversified approach to real estate investments, combined with its focus on sustainable development, positions it to capitalize on market trends and generate consistent income.

Genova Property Group AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue growth and a clear earnings rebound in 2024–2025 support the score, and free cash flow is consistently positive with improved 2025 generation. Offsetting this, profitability has been highly volatile (notably the 2023 loss), and the balance sheet is the main risk with elevated/rising leverage (~2.6 debt-to-equity in 2025) and declining equity, leaving less cushion if earnings soften.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily from 2020 to 2025, with a strong acceleration in 2025 versus 2024. Profitability is highly volatile: results swung from very strong profits (2020–2022), to a sharp loss in 2023, then recovered to solid profitability in 2024–2025. Current margins look strong, but the size of the 2023 downturn reduces confidence in the durability of earnings.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated and rising, with debt increasing and debt-to-equity moving up to ~2.6 in 2025. Equity has also trended down from 2022 to 2025, which weakens the balance sheet cushion. Returns on equity recovered in 2024–2025 after turning negative in 2023, but the combination of higher leverage and a thinner equity base increases financial risk.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow is positive across all years and improved materially in 2025, indicating better cash generation. Cash conversion versus reported profit is consistently strong (free cash flow is close to net income in most periods). However, operating cash flow remains small relative to the company’s debt load (coverage stays low across the period), which limits financial flexibility despite positive free cash flow.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	514.00M	507.80M	503.00M	394.70M	319.90M
Gross Profit	356.00M	368.90M	367.50M	277.80M	235.30M
EBITDA	613.00M	495.20M	-218.90M	465.20M	903.20M
Net Income	233.00M	124.40M	-450.80M	223.50M	608.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.90B	11.65B	11.57B	11.98B	9.66B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	185.00M	151.90M	284.50M	257.70M	316.00M
Total Debt	7.59B	6.59B	6.38B	6.42B	5.26B
Total Liabilities	9.17B	7.51B	7.26B	7.38B	5.99B
Stockholders Equity	2.96B	3.33B	3.51B	3.85B	3.56B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	88.00M	80.40M	112.10M	71.60M	70.00M
Operating Cash Flow	95.00M	83.00M	112.60M	73.00M	72.10M
Investing Cash Flow	-774.00M	-606.00M	-119.20M	-767.50M	-2.25B
Financing Cash Flow	712.00M	390.30M	70.70M	636.10M	1.92B

Genova Property Group AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 39.30
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:GPG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 39.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.89, below the 50-day MA of 40.29, and below the 200-day MA of 40.47, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.32 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:GPG.

Genova Property Group AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SOLNA	71 Outperform	kr428.64M	9.83	―	5.79%	4.30%	―
SFAST	70 Neutral	kr4.45B	12.39	6.08%	1.80%	-2.06%	―
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
GPG	56 Neutral	kr1.79B	7.69	―	1.67%	0.71%	―
BRIN.B	51 Neutral	kr3.47B	37.86	2.27%	―	51.80%	―

Genova Property Group AB Corporate Events

Genova Increases Share Capital Through Set-Off Issue to Landia

Genova Property Group AB has increased its total number of shares and votes to 46,975,629 following a set-off issue of 1,362,300 ordinary shares to Landia AB. The transaction, previously announced in December 2025, slightly dilutes existing shareholders but strengthens Genova’s capital structure and underpins its ongoing strategy in the Swedish real estate market.

The expanded share base may improve trading liquidity in Genova’s stock while supporting the company’s capacity to pursue property management, development and transactions. This development reinforces Genova’s position as an actively managed, growth-oriented property company focused on long-term value creation in Sweden’s real estate sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:GPG) stock is a Buy with a SEK56.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genova Property Group AB stock, see the SE:GPG Stock Forecast page.

Genova Property Group Lifts Net Income and NAV on Growing Property Portfolio

Genova Property Group reported modest growth in its core property operations in 2025, with rental income rising to SEK 514 million and net operating income up 2 percent. The property portfolio increased in value to SEK 10.7 billion, while the long-term net asset value attributable to shareholders climbed 9 percent to SEK 3.57 billion, or SEK 75.95 per share, supported by an expanding building rights portfolio and continued investment activity.

Despite higher other financial expenses weighing on income from property management, net income for the year surged 75 percent to SEK 274 million, helped by lower interest payments on hybrid bonds. The board is proposing a slightly higher dividend of SEK 0.92 per share, and key balance sheet metrics, including a loan-to-value ratio of 55.4 percent and stable interest coverage, indicate a maintained financial position as the company continues to develop its projects and leverage its building rights surplus.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:GPG) stock is a Hold with a SEK40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genova Property Group AB stock, see the SE:GPG Stock Forecast page.

Genova Property Group to Fully Redeem SEK 195m Green Capital Securities

Genova Property Group AB has decided to redeem in full its subordinated perpetual green capital securities (ISIN SE0015245519) not already held by the company, corresponding to a nominal outstanding amount of SEK 195 million. The securities will be repaid early at 100% of nominal value plus accrued interest, with a record date of 26 February 2026 and a redemption date of 5 March 2026, after which they will be delisted from Nasdaq Stockholm, signaling a move to simplify the company’s capital structure and potentially reduce financing costs for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:GPG) stock is a Hold with a SEK40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genova Property Group AB stock, see the SE:GPG Stock Forecast page.

Genova Property Group Launches Share Buy-Back to Boost Per-Share Growth

Genova Property Group has launched a share buy-back programme for its ordinary shares, authorised by its 2025 Annual General Meeting, with repurchases to be conducted on Nasdaq Stockholm from 13 January 2026 until the 2026 AGM at the latest. The programme, capped at SEK 29.76 million and limited to a maximum of 10 percent of the company’s 46,975,629 outstanding shares, is designed to optimise Genova’s capital structure, enhance growth per share through a reduced share count, and potentially provide a stock-based currency for future acquisitions, underscoring the company’s strategic shift toward per-share value creation over new construction starts.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:GPG) stock is a Hold with a SEK40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genova Property Group AB stock, see the SE:GPG Stock Forecast page.

Genova Retires Entire SEK 200 Million Convertible Bond Issue

Genova Property Group AB has repurchased all of its outstanding convertible bonds with ISIN SE0021630308, totaling SEK 200 million, at 104.5 percent of their nominal value, after which no convertible bonds remain in circulation. The move simplifies the company’s capital structure by removing this class of debt, which may have implications for its future financing flexibility and equity dilution profile, and signals an active approach to balance sheet and liability management in a volatile real estate funding environment.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:GPG) stock is a Hold with a SEK42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genova Property Group AB stock, see the SE:GPG Stock Forecast page.

Genova issues SEK 200m green bond tap and buys back convertibles to curb dilution

Genova Property Group has issued SEK 200 million in additional green senior unsecured bonds maturing in September 2029 under its SEK 750 million green bond framework, bringing the total outstanding to SEK 620 million, and intends to list the new bonds on Nasdaq Stockholm’s sustainable bond list. The company will use the proceeds in line with its green finance framework and has simultaneously repurchased SEK 195 million of outstanding convertible bonds, with plans to redeem the small remaining amount, a move that management says is largely debt- and interest-neutral but removes a potential future equity dilution of about 8% and is aimed at enhancing shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:GPG) stock is a Hold with a SEK42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genova Property Group AB stock, see the SE:GPG Stock Forecast page.