Cheffelo AB (CHEF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr1.27B
• Dividend Yield: 4.05%
• Average Volume (3M): 56.74K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.42
• Revenue Growth: 12.49%
• EPS Growth: 116.06%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 267
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Food Distribution
• EPS (TTM): 2.28
• Shares Outstanding: 13,020,424
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 64,614
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 56,744
• PEG Ratio: 0.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.33
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.86
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.32
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 5.64
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr1.30B

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: kr107.00 ▲(26.78% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/23/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/23/26

The score is primarily driven by solid financial performance—especially strong recent free cash flow and manageable leverage—tempered by historical volatility in margins and cash flow. Technicals are neutral-to-mixed with no strong momentum signal, and valuation appears moderate with a supportive but not standout dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strong free cash flow

Robust free cash flow in 2025 demonstrates the business converts earnings to cash efficiently, supporting reinvestment, debt servicing and dividend capacity. Durable cash generation reduces reliance on external financing and increases resilience across economic cycles over the next 2–6 months.

Improving leverage and returns

Moderate and falling leverage with improving ROE signals healthier capital structure and operational profitability. This structural improvement increases financial flexibility and lowers bankruptcy risk, enabling sustained investment in growth initiatives and margin preservation.

Recurring subscription business model

A subscription-based model delivers predictable recurring revenue and higher customer lifetime value when retention holds. This durable demand structure supports planning, better procurement terms, and steady cash flow, underpinning structural resilience in core markets.

Negative Factors

Margin and cash-flow volatility

Historic swings in margins and a past negative cash year indicate sensitivity to input costs, pricing, or operational execution. Such volatility risks earnings durability and makes forecasting and capital allocation harder, potentially eroding investor confidence if repeated.

Uneven revenue growth trajectory

Inconsistent top-line performance suggests demand or execution variability in core markets. For a subscription retailer, uneven subscriber growth or retention can limit scale economies and margin expansion, constraining sustainable revenue momentum over the medium term.

Limited asset and equity growth

Stagnant asset and equity growth restricts the firm's ability to scale operations and absorb adverse shocks. Limited balance-sheet expansion can constrain investments in fulfillment or marketing, making it harder to capture market share and smooth cyclical dips in demand.

Cheffelo AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cheffelo AB (publ) engages in the supply and delivery of meal kits to the customer's front door in Sweden, Norway, and Denmark. It operates under the Linas Matkasse, Godtlevert, Adams Matkasse, and RetNemt brand names. The company was formerly known as LMK Group AB (publ) and changed its name to Cheffelo AB (publ) in October 2023. The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Sundbyberg, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Cheffelo AB generates revenue through multiple channels, primarily by selling its smart kitchen appliances and subscription-based software services. The company offers a range of products at various price points, targeting both consumers and professional kitchens. A significant revenue stream comes from subscription fees for its recipe management and cooking guidance app, which provides users with personalized meal plans, grocery lists, and instructional videos. Additionally, Cheffelo has established partnerships with food brands and culinary schools, allowing it to expand its customer base and enhance its service offerings. These collaborations often involve co-branded products and promotional campaigns, further driving sales and brand visibility.

Cheffelo AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong recent cash generation (2025 operating cash flow ~SEK 126m; free cash flow ~SEK 123m) supports earnings quality, and leverage is moderate/improving (debt-to-equity ~0.31) with better ROE (~13% in 2025). Offsets include uneven revenue history and notable margin/cash-flow volatility (loss/negative cash flow in 2022 and unusual gross-margin swings), which reduces confidence in durability.

Income Statement

Profitability has improved meaningfully since the 2022 loss year, with 2025 showing solid earnings (about 4.8% net margin) and stronger operating profitability than 2023–2024. Revenue growth is positive in 2024–2025 (2025 up ~2.3% vs. 2024), but the top-line trajectory has been uneven across the period (including declines in 2022 and 2023). A key watch item is margin volatility: gross margin in 2025 is reported far below prior years, even though earnings are higher—suggesting potential one-offs or classification/price-cost swings that make sustainability less clear.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears manageable and improving versus earlier periods: debt-to-equity is ~0.31 in 2025 (well below 2020’s high leverage), and equity remains stable around SEK 440m+ in recent years. Returns on equity have strengthened (about 13% in 2025 vs. ~7% in 2024), reflecting better profitability. The main weakness is that assets and equity have not grown much recently, and the business has a history of profitability shocks (notably 2022), which can pressure balance-sheet resilience if repeated.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: 2025 operating cash flow (~SEK 126m) and free cash flow (~SEK 123m) are strong, with free cash flow up sharply (about +18% in 2025). Free cash flow closely tracks reported earnings (free cash flow is ~98% of net income in 2025), supporting earnings quality. The key risk is volatility—cash flow was negative in 2022—so while current conversion is strong, it has not been consistently stable across the full period.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.19B	1.06B	999.72M	1.08B	1.39B
Gross Profit	72.26M	457.10M	433.19M	-33.70M	38.67M
EBITDA	115.48M	93.20M	82.42M	-97.50M	93.93M
Net Income	57.46M	32.42M	19.30M	-154.56M	17.36M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	722.08M	746.12M	760.92M	776.07M	960.86M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	157.07M	114.21M	91.92M	56.00M	160.73M
Total Debt	134.66M	110.80M	132.75M	152.20M	117.28M
Total Liabilities	281.76M	304.01M	322.37M	328.48M	352.81M
Stockholders Equity	440.32M	442.11M	438.55M	447.59M	608.04M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	123.23M	74.10M	70.77M	-62.42M	28.25M
Operating Cash Flow	126.18M	85.10M	82.20M	-40.48M	58.19M
Investing Cash Flow	-13.78M	-10.99M	-11.44M	-24.33M	-88.09M
Financing Cash Flow	-62.71M	-49.97M	-29.35M	-43.57M	102.56M

Cheffelo AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 84.40
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:CHEF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 84.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 100.48, below the 50-day MA of 92.61, and above the 200-day MA of 69.73, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:CHEF.

Cheffelo AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CHEF	70 Outperform	kr1.27B	21.92	―	4.05%	12.49%	116.06%
NNH	64 Neutral	kr102.84M	13.15	―	―	5.91%	―
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
SNX	56 Neutral	kr503.26M	20.03	―	0.51%	22.02%	127.51%