Assa Abloy (ASSA.B) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr419.54B
• Dividend Yield: 1.66%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.25M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.03
• Revenue Growth: 4.15%
• EPS Growth: -4.20%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 64,460
• Sector: General
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Security & Protection Services
• EPS (TTM): 3.85
• Shares Outstanding: 1,055,050,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,320,533
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,250,286
• PEG Ratio: -4.49
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.92
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.62
• P/FCF Ratio: 21.19
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: kr417.20
• Price Target Upside: 11.49% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 15.82
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr154.14B

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: kr426.00 ▲(13.84% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/07/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/07/26

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying profitability and dependable cash generation, but is held back by the latest reported revenue contraction and increased leverage. Technicals remain trend-positive but appear overbought, while valuation is relatively expensive (high P/E and modest yield), tempering the overall attractiveness.

Positive Factors

Improving margins and stable operating profitability

Assa Abloy has shown multi-year gross margin expansion and consistent EBIT margins, which indicate sustained pricing power and cost control. Durable margin improvement supports reinvestment, resilience through cycles and long-term earnings power even if revenue growth moderates.

Strong cash generation quality

Free cash flow tracking closely to net income signals high cash quality and efficient cash conversion under normal conditions. This durable cash generation supports capex, maintenance of service networks, shareholder returns and the ability to fund transformation or selective M&A.

Market leadership with diversified recurring revenue

Assa Abloy's leadership across mechanical and electronic access, broad sector exposure and recurring maintenance/service contracts create diversified, sticky revenue. Strategic partnerships with construction and tech providers strengthen distribution and product adoption over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Recent sharp revenue decline

A material recent revenue contraction erodes top-line momentum and risks undermining scale benefits and R&D or service investment. If the decline persists, it could compress operating leverage, reduce reinvestment capacity and pressure long-term growth trajectories.

Material increase in leverage

Rising leverage meaningfully reduces financial flexibility and raises interest and refinancing sensitivity. Higher debt levels make the company more vulnerable to operating softness, constrain strategic optionality like bolt-on M&A or buybacks, and increase downside risk in downturns.

Weakness in recent cash growth and conversion

A drop in free cash flow growth and only moderate cash conversion point to working-capital or timing volatility. This weakens the reliability of cash returns and may limit the firm's ability to reduce leverage, sustain capex or fund growth without tapping external financing.

Assa Abloy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) provides door opening products, solutions, and services for the institutional, commercial, and residential markets in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North and South America, Asia, and Oceania. The company offers mechanical and electromechanical locks, digital door locks, cylinders, door fittings, security doors, door frames, access control devices, and fire doors, as well as hardware products. It also provides identity solutions, including identity and access management, biometrics, authenticity and brand protection products, contactless RFID tags and transponders, and government IDs to companies, and government and state institutions, as well as healthcare, education, and financial industries; and secure access solutions for hotels, cruise ships, student accommodations, and elderly care facilities. In addition, the company offers entrance automation products, services, and components, such as automatic swing, sliding, and revolving doors; industrial doors; garage doors; high-performance doors; docking solutions; hangar doors; gate automation products; components for overhead sectional doors and sensors; and high security fencings and gates. The company provides its products primarily under the ASSA ABLOY, Yale, and HID brands. It sells its products through distributors, wholesalers, and home improvement stores. ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) was incorporated in 1954 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Assa Abloy generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diverse range of locking and access solutions, which include mechanical locks, electronic locks, and mobile access systems. Key revenue streams come from both product sales and service contracts, with a significant portion of revenue derived from the commercial sector, including hospitality, education, and healthcare industries. The company also benefits from recurring revenue through maintenance services and upgrades for its electronic systems. Strategic partnerships with construction firms and technology providers further enhance its market reach and product offerings, contributing to its overall earnings.

Assa Abloy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and improving gross margin over time with consistently healthy EBIT margins, plus solid free cash flow relative to earnings. Offsetting this, the latest period shows a sharp reported revenue decline, weaker net margin versus 2024, and meaningfully higher leverage (debt-to-equity up to ~0.69), which raises near-term risk.

Income Statement

Assa Abloy shows solid, durable profitability with gross margin improving over time (about 39% in 2020 to ~43% in 2025) and consistently strong operating profitability (EBIT margin ~14%–16%). Revenue expanded meaningfully from 2020 to 2024, but the latest year shows a sharp reported revenue decline and a step-down in net margin versus 2024, which raises near-term growth quality concerns despite still-healthy earnings levels.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is generally sound with steady returns on equity in the mid-teens, indicating good underlying profitability. However, leverage has increased materially since 2022: debt-to-equity moved from ~0.39 (2022) to ~0.69 (2024–2025), reducing financial flexibility and making results more sensitive to operating softness.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is consistently strong, with free cash flow tracking closely to earnings (free cash flow at ~86%–90% of net income across years), supporting reinvestment and shareholder returns. That said, free cash flow growth turned negative in the latest period after modest growth in 2024, and cash conversion remains only moderate based on the provided operating cash flow coverage figures, suggesting some working-capital or cash timing volatility.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	152.41B	150.16B	140.72B	120.79B	95.01B
Gross Profit	64.97B	62.73B	56.50B	47.93B	37.78B
EBITDA	29.20B	29.85B	26.95B	22.66B	18.02B
Net Income	14.70B	15.64B	13.63B	13.29B	10.90B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	208.37B	223.60B	196.35B	154.56B	129.97B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.40B	4.50B	1.70B	3.42B	4.33B
Total Debt	70.25B	73.50B	65.19B	33.73B	28.75B
Total Liabilities	106.65B	116.52B	104.71B	68.54B	60.38B
Stockholders Equity	101.60B	107.07B	91.63B	86.01B	69.58B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	18.81B	19.33B	18.88B	12.36B	10.74B
Operating Cash Flow	21.41B	21.39B	21.29B	14.36B	12.46B
Investing Cash Flow	-13.16B	-13.93B	-47.90B	-10.56B	-3.09B
Financing Cash Flow	-11.18B	-4.45B	24.73B	-4.70B	-7.81B

Assa Abloy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 374.20
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:ASSA.B, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 374.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 383.18, above the 50-day MA of 369.93, and above the 200-day MA of 337.91, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 3.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SE:ASSA.B.

Assa Abloy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LOOMIS	71 Outperform	kr28.92B	16.76	14.28%	3.63%	2.58%	19.07%
SECU.B	69 Neutral	kr88.72B	12.34	13.13%	3.10%	-0.74%	6.55%
ASSA.B	66 Neutral	kr419.54B	27.12	14.58%	1.66%	4.15%	-4.20%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%