AcadeMedia AB (ACAD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr9.38B
• Dividend Yield: 2.31%
• Average Volume (3M): 139.03K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.29
• Revenue Growth: 9.02%
• EPS Growth: 29.93%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 16,604
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Education & Training Services
• EPS (TTM): 2.10
• Shares Outstanding: 95,866,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 176,646
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 139,029
• PEG Ratio: 0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.25
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.44
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.29
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 9.95
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr20.15B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: kr108.00 ▲(11.11% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/04/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/04/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance supported by strong free cash flow, tempered by elevated and rising leverage that increases risk. Valuation is favorable (low P/E with a decent dividend), while technical indicators point to a weaker near-term trend.

Positive Factors

Strong free cash flow

Consistent, high free cash flow and near-parity with reported earnings indicate durable cash generation. This supports reinvestment, dividend capacity and operational resilience over 2–6 months, and signals high earnings quality even as the firm manages growth and capital needs.

Solid revenue growth & stable margins

Sustained top-line expansion and steady operating margins demonstrate scalable operations and disciplined cost control. Reliable revenue growth plus consistent EBITDA margins imply the business can expand enrollment and services while maintaining operating profitability over the medium term.

Public-funded, diversified education model

A business model based on public per‑student funding and government contracts provides predictable cash flows and lower cyclicality. Diversification across preschool, compulsory, upper secondary and adult education reduces single-segment risk and supports steady demand structurally.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

A sharp rise in leverage materially reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity. With equity roughly flat, high debt amplifies earnings volatility risk and limits the company's ability to pursue strategic investments or absorb shocks over the medium term.

Operating cash flow < debt needs

Although free cash flow is strong, operating cash flow covers only a portion of debt obligations. That persistent gap increases reliance on external financing or asset actions, making the company more vulnerable to tighter credit conditions or rate increases in the coming months.

Modest net margins; gross margin pressure

Thin net margins limit the firm's ability to convert revenue growth into durable bottom-line gains. A decline in TTM gross margin suggests cost or mix pressures that could persist, constraining cash flow upside and making deleveraging more difficult while costs rise.

AcadeMedia AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AcadeMedia AB (publ) operates as an independent education provider in northern Europe. It operates through four segments: Preschool, Compulsory School, Upper Secondary School, and Adult Education. The company operates approximately 650 preschools, primary schools, upper secondary schools, and adult education units. AcadeMedia AB (publ) was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

AcadeMedia makes money mainly by operating education providers that are funded largely through public education financing. Its core revenue stream is per-student funding (school vouchers/municipal compensation) paid by municipalities and other public-sector payers for students enrolled in its preschools, compulsory schools, and upper secondary schools. A second major revenue stream comes from adult education and vocational training, where revenue is earned through contracts and procurements with municipalities, government agencies, and other public entities to deliver adult learning programs, labor-market training, and reskilling services. Where applicable, the company may also earn revenue from ancillary school-related services (e.g., meals, after-school care, or other add-on services tied to its school operations), but specific materiality details are null. Profitability is driven by managing enrollment volumes, staffing and facility costs, utilization of school capacity, and compliance with education quality and regulatory requirements that influence demand and contract eligibility.

AcadeMedia AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating performance and cash generation are solid (strong revenue growth, steady EBIT/EBITDA margins, and strong free-cash-flow conversion), but the balance sheet is a major drag due to sharply higher leverage (debt-to-equity rising to 3.42x in TTM), which increases financial risk despite healthy cash flow.

Income Statement

Top-line performance is solid, with revenue rising from 12.97B (2021) to 18.68B (2025 annual) and further to 19.00B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), supported by strong TTM revenue growth (69.9%). Profitability is steady at the operating level, with EBIT margin around ~8.6–9.4% and EBITDA margin consistently ~21–22% across recent periods. The main weakness is that net margins remain modest (~3.6–4.6%), limiting bottom-line leverage despite scale, and the TTM gross margin (18.4%) is notably below recent annual levels, indicating some cost/mix pressure.

Balance Sheet

Returns to shareholders are decent and improving, with return on equity moving from ~9–11% historically to ~12–13% in 2025/TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). However, leverage is the clear overhang: debt-to-equity is elevated across the cycle (~1.8–2.1x) and spikes to 3.42x in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) as total debt rises sharply (22.71B TTM vs. 12.10B in 2025 annual) while equity stays roughly flat (~6.6B). This higher leverage reduces balance-sheet flexibility and increases sensitivity to earnings volatility and financing conditions.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a key strength. Free cash flow is consistently strong and close to reported earnings (free cash flow to net income ~0.89–0.96 historically; 0.92 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), supporting earnings quality. Both operating cash flow and free cash flow are trending up over time, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow growth of 59.1%. The main watch-out is that cash flow does not fully cover debt (operating cash flow coverage ratio ~0.60–0.83), which matters more given the higher TTM leverage.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021	Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	19.00B	18.68B	17.33B	15.54B	13.88B	12.97B
Gross Profit	3.50B	5.58B	5.40B	4.81B	3.96B	3.74B
EBITDA	4.12B	4.11B	3.66B	3.22B	2.98B	2.75B
Net Income	843.00M	821.00M	632.00M	578.00M	605.00M	599.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	22.76B	22.02B	22.73B	19.92B	18.86B	17.41B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	661.00M	745.00M	1.32B	967.00M	1.14B	966.00M
Total Debt	12.75B	12.10B	13.09B	11.10B	10.60B	9.62B
Total Liabilities	16.12B	15.39B	16.46B	13.78B	13.11B	12.10B
Stockholders Equity	6.64B	6.63B	6.26B	6.13B	5.76B	5.32B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.57B	3.60B	3.21B	2.58B	2.68B	2.74B
Operating Cash Flow	3.88B	3.74B	3.50B	2.90B	2.83B	2.87B
Investing Cash Flow	-637.00M	-678.00M	-871.00M	-481.00M	-536.00M	-437.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-3.74B	-3.58B	-2.27B	-2.59B	-2.14B	-2.00B

AcadeMedia AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 97.20
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:ACAD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 97.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 99.70, above the 50-day MA of 95.65, and above the 200-day MA of 93.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:ACAD.

AcadeMedia AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CEDER	65 Neutral	kr458.33M	29.95	18.97%	9.52%	45.29%	151.67%
ACAD	64 Neutral	kr9.38B	12.30	12.65%	2.31%	9.02%	29.93%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
TELLUS	54 Neutral	kr106.58M	-4.07	128.49%	―	8.31%	―

AcadeMedia AB Corporate Events

AcadeMedia accelerates Dutch expansion with acquisition of MAM’s Kinderopvang

AcadeMedia, Northern Europe’s largest private education provider, is expanding its footprint in the Netherlands by acquiring MAM’s Kinderopvang, a preschool group founded in 2010 that operates 13 preschools with 860 childcare seats in the Apeldoorn region. The deal strengthens AcadeMedia’s local preschool organisation and complements its existing Dutch network of 33 preschools and 11 primary and secondary schools.

The acquisition advances AcadeMedia’s international growth strategy, which aims to derive 50 percent of its long-term revenue from markets outside Sweden’s schooling voucher system. Following the transaction, AcadeMedia will operate 46 preschools and 11 schools in the Netherlands, contributing to an international business that already accounts for more than 30 percent of group turnover and reinforcing the group’s platform in a prioritised market.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ACAD) stock is a Hold with a SEK105.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AcadeMedia AB stock, see the SE:ACAD Stock Forecast page.

AcadeMedia Returns SEK 380 Million to Shareholders in Near-Fully Subscribed Redemption Program

AcadeMedia has completed its voluntary share redemption program with a high participation rate, underscoring strong shareholder engagement in the company’s capital return initiative. The education provider will distribute roughly SEK 380 million in cash to investors, equivalent to SEK 117 per redeemed share, reinforcing its ability to generate and return capital while maintaining a sizable equity base.

Following the transaction, AcadeMedia’s outstanding share count will fall to 96,059,263, comprised mainly of ordinary shares alongside a smaller tranche of series C shares, slightly reshaping its ownership structure. Trading in the redemption shares is scheduled to run between March 9 and March 16, 2026, offering a short window of liquidity for holders and marking the final step in the program’s execution.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ACAD) stock is a Hold with a SEK110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AcadeMedia AB stock, see the SE:ACAD Stock Forecast page.

AcadeMedia Buys Norwegian Adult Educator K2 Kompetanse to Boost Nordic Growth

AcadeMedia has strengthened its position in the Norwegian education market by acquiring 100 percent of K2 Kompetanse, a private provider of upper secondary education for adults that runs eight campuses in major cities and generated about NOK 80 million in net revenue in 2025. The deal broadens AcadeMedia’s adult education offering outside Sweden, complements its existing Norwegian operations under the Espira brand, and supports its strategy to grow internationally, with management highlighting rising demand for upskilling and reskilling as a key driver for continued expansion in Norway’s adult education sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ACAD) stock is a Hold with a SEK108.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AcadeMedia AB stock, see the SE:ACAD Stock Forecast page.

AcadeMedia Expands Share Capital After Warrant Exercise

AcadeMedia AB has increased its share capital during February 2026 following the exercise of warrants from a program approved at the November 2025 annual general meeting. The issue added 98,187 ordinary shares, raising the total number of shares to 99,302,973 and total votes to 99,129,221.7, marginally diluting existing shareholders but strengthening the company’s equity base.

Of the total shares now outstanding, 99,109,916 are ordinary shares carrying one vote each, while 193,057 are C shares carrying one tenth of a vote per share. The updated capital and voting structure reflects ongoing use of equity-based incentive schemes, aligning management and employee interests with shareholders while modestly impacting ownership dispersion in the listed education group.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ACAD) stock is a Hold with a SEK101.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AcadeMedia AB stock, see the SE:ACAD Stock Forecast page.

AcadeMedia Sets Terms for SEK 399 Million Voluntary Share Redemption

AcadeMedia’s board has set the detailed terms for a previously approved voluntary redemption program, which will see up to 3,414,197 ordinary shares redeemed at SEK 117 per share, for a maximum cash payout of about SEK 399.5 million to shareholders. The share capital will be formally reduced and then restored through a bonus issue, ensuring that the company’s capital structure remains intact while returning funds to investors.

Shareholders registered on 17 February 2026 will receive one redemption right per ordinary share, with 29 rights required to redeem one share, and trading in both redemption rights and redemption shares will be arranged on Nasdaq Stockholm during set periods through March. The timetable, culminating in expected payment around 23 March 2026, gives investors a clear window to participate, signaling a shareholder-friendly capital allocation move that may enhance returns without altering AcadeMedia’s operational footprint in the education sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ACAD) stock is a Hold with a SEK101.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AcadeMedia AB stock, see the SE:ACAD Stock Forecast page.

AcadeMedia Lifts Sales and Profit on Higher Volumes and International Expansion

AcadeMedia reported solid results for the second quarter of 2025/26, with net sales up 4.1% to SEK 5.23 billion, driven mainly by 4.5% organic growth, and operating profit rising nearly 12% to SEK 450 million as student numbers increased by 2.2%. For the first half-year, sales grew 5.2% to SEK 9.33 billion and adjusted EBITA improved 16.1%, supported by higher volumes across its school segments, strong free cash flow, and continued international expansion including two acquisitions completed after the period, underscoring the group’s strategy to gain market share in higher education and strengthen profitability for shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ACAD) stock is a Buy with a SEK117.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AcadeMedia AB stock, see the SE:ACAD Stock Forecast page.

AcadeMedia Sets 2 February Date for Q2 2025/26 Report and Investor Webcast

AcadeMedia has scheduled the release of its quarterly report for the period July–December 2025/26 for 2 February, with the report to be published at 09:30 CEST. Ahead of the publication, the company will host an English‑language telephone conference and webcast at 08:00 CEST the same day, where CEO Marcus Strömberg and CFO Petter Sylvan will present the financial results and take questions from analysts and investors; presentation materials and a replay of the webcast will be made available on the company’s website, underscoring AcadeMedia’s ongoing investor‑relations efforts and transparency with stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ACAD) stock is a Buy with a SEK117.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AcadeMedia AB stock, see the SE:ACAD Stock Forecast page.

AcadeMedia Buys German School Group Docemus to Cement Brandenburg Lead

AcadeMedia has agreed to acquire 100% of German school group Docemus-Privatschulen, adding three schools and roughly 1,400 students in the Berlin-Brandenburg area as part of its strategy to expand internationally and reduce reliance on Sweden’s school voucher system. The deal makes AcadeMedia the largest education provider in Brandenburg with about 6,000 students in Germany and expands its German footprint to 103 preschools and 12 schools, with management highlighting expected operational and structural synergies and reinforcing the company’s push to lift international operations—which currently account for just over 30% of group revenue—towards a long-term target of 50% of revenue generated outside Sweden.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ACAD) stock is a Buy with a SEK119.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AcadeMedia AB stock, see the SE:ACAD Stock Forecast page.