AcadeMedia AB (ACAD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr9.88B
• Dividend Yield: 2.31%
• Average Volume (3M): 139.03K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.31
• Revenue Growth: 9.02%
• EPS Growth: 29.93%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 16,604
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Education & Training Services
• EPS (TTM): 2.10
• Shares Outstanding: 99,109,920
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 176,646
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 139,029
• PEG Ratio: 0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.25
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.44
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.29
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 9.95
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr20.15B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: kr108.00 ▲(11.11% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/04/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/04/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance supported by strong free cash flow, tempered by elevated and rising leverage that increases risk. Valuation is favorable (low P/E with a decent dividend), while technical indicators point to a weaker near-term trend.

Positive Factors

Strong free cash flow

Consistent and growing free cash flow (FCF to net income ~0.89–0.96 historically; 0.92 TTM and 59.1% TTM FCF growth) underpins earnings quality. Durable FCF supports reinvestment, working-capital funding, dividends or targeted deleveraging without relying on volatile external financing.

Sustained revenue growth and scale

Multi-year revenue expansion to ~19.0B TTM shows expanding enrollment and contract wins. Scale across preschools, compulsory, upper-secondary and adult education improves operational leverage, bargaining power with public payers, and resilience to localized demand swings.

Predictable public-funded business model

A revenue base tied largely to public funding and municipal contracts provides recurring, predictable cash flows and lower cyclicality than purely private-pay models. Diversification across student segments andprocurement-backed adult programs reduces revenue volatility and supports long-term planning.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

Sharp rise in leverage (debt-to-equity ~3.42x TTM) materially reduces financial flexibility. Higher debt amplifies sensitivity to earnings shocks or funding-cost increases, limits capacity for strategic investments or M&A, and raises restructuring or refinancing risks over the medium term.

Cash flow coverage shortfall vs. debt

Operating cash flow covering only ~60–83% of debt obligations means recurring cash generation is insufficient to fully service current debt levels without drawing reserves or new financing. This structural gap heightens refinancing risk and could force operational or financing adjustments.

Modest net margins and margin pressure

While operating margins are stable, low net margins and a TTM decline in gross margin indicate cost or mix pressures that limit bottom-line leverage. With high leverage, limited margin expansion constrains the company's ability to absorb higher interest costs or fund growth internally.

AcadeMedia AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AcadeMedia AB (publ) operates as an independent education provider in northern Europe. It operates through four segments: Preschool, Compulsory School, Upper Secondary School, and Adult Education. The company operates approximately 650 preschools, primary schools, upper secondary schools, and adult education units. AcadeMedia AB (publ) was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

AcadeMedia generates revenue primarily through government funding based on the number of students enrolled in its educational institutions. The company operates under a public funding model where it receives per-student funding from the Swedish government, making it reliant on maintaining high enrollment levels across its various schools and preschools. Additionally, AcadeMedia may earn revenue from supplementary services such as after-school programs, educational materials, and special events. The company’s strategic partnerships with local authorities and educational organizations also play a crucial role in expanding its reach and enhancing its service offerings, further contributing to its overall revenue stream.

AcadeMedia AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating performance and cash generation are solid (strong revenue growth, steady EBIT/EBITDA margins, and strong free-cash-flow conversion), but the balance sheet is a major drag due to sharply higher leverage (debt-to-equity rising to 3.42x in TTM), which increases financial risk despite healthy cash flow.

Income Statement

Top-line performance is solid, with revenue rising from 12.97B (2021) to 18.68B (2025 annual) and further to 19.00B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), supported by strong TTM revenue growth (69.9%). Profitability is steady at the operating level, with EBIT margin around ~8.6–9.4% and EBITDA margin consistently ~21–22% across recent periods. The main weakness is that net margins remain modest (~3.6–4.6%), limiting bottom-line leverage despite scale, and the TTM gross margin (18.4%) is notably below recent annual levels, indicating some cost/mix pressure.

Balance Sheet

Returns to shareholders are decent and improving, with return on equity moving from ~9–11% historically to ~12–13% in 2025/TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). However, leverage is the clear overhang: debt-to-equity is elevated across the cycle (~1.8–2.1x) and spikes to 3.42x in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) as total debt rises sharply (22.71B TTM vs. 12.10B in 2025 annual) while equity stays roughly flat (~6.6B). This higher leverage reduces balance-sheet flexibility and increases sensitivity to earnings volatility and financing conditions.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a key strength. Free cash flow is consistently strong and close to reported earnings (free cash flow to net income ~0.89–0.96 historically; 0.92 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), supporting earnings quality. Both operating cash flow and free cash flow are trending up over time, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow growth of 59.1%. The main watch-out is that cash flow does not fully cover debt (operating cash flow coverage ratio ~0.60–0.83), which matters more given the higher TTM leverage.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021	Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	19.00B	18.68B	17.33B	15.54B	13.88B	12.97B
Gross Profit	3.50B	5.58B	5.40B	4.81B	3.96B	3.74B
EBITDA	4.12B	4.11B	3.66B	3.22B	2.98B	2.75B
Net Income	843.00M	821.00M	632.00M	578.00M	605.00M	599.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	22.76B	22.02B	22.73B	19.92B	18.86B	17.41B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	661.00M	745.00M	1.32B	967.00M	1.14B	966.00M
Total Debt	22.71B	12.10B	13.09B	11.10B	10.60B	9.62B
Total Liabilities	16.12B	15.39B	16.46B	13.78B	13.11B	12.10B
Stockholders Equity	6.64B	6.63B	6.26B	6.13B	5.76B	5.32B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.57B	3.60B	3.21B	2.58B	2.68B	2.74B
Operating Cash Flow	3.88B	3.74B	3.50B	2.90B	2.83B	2.87B
Investing Cash Flow	-637.00M	-678.00M	-871.00M	-481.00M	-536.00M	-437.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-3.74B	-3.58B	-2.27B	-2.59B	-2.14B	-2.00B

AcadeMedia AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 97.20
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:ACAD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 97.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 92.79, above the 50-day MA of 95.09, and above the 200-day MA of 92.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.54 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:ACAD.

AcadeMedia AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ACAD	64 Neutral	kr9.88B	11.71	12.65%	2.31%	9.02%	29.93%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
CEDER	62 Neutral	kr531.76M	26.76	13.22%	9.52%	45.29%	151.67%
TELLUS	54 Neutral	kr106.58M	26.24	128.49%	―	8.31%	―

AcadeMedia AB Corporate Events

AcadeMedia Expands Share Capital After Warrant Exercise

AcadeMedia AB has increased its share capital during February 2026 following the exercise of warrants from a program approved at the November 2025 annual general meeting. The issue added 98,187 ordinary shares, raising the total number of shares to 99,302,973 and total votes to 99,129,221.7, marginally diluting existing shareholders but strengthening the company’s equity base.

Of the total shares now outstanding, 99,109,916 are ordinary shares carrying one vote each, while 193,057 are C shares carrying one tenth of a vote per share. The updated capital and voting structure reflects ongoing use of equity-based incentive schemes, aligning management and employee interests with shareholders while modestly impacting ownership dispersion in the listed education group.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ACAD) stock is a Hold with a SEK101.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AcadeMedia AB stock, see the SE:ACAD Stock Forecast page.

AcadeMedia Sets Terms for SEK 399 Million Voluntary Share Redemption

AcadeMedia’s board has set the detailed terms for a previously approved voluntary redemption program, which will see up to 3,414,197 ordinary shares redeemed at SEK 117 per share, for a maximum cash payout of about SEK 399.5 million to shareholders. The share capital will be formally reduced and then restored through a bonus issue, ensuring that the company’s capital structure remains intact while returning funds to investors.

Shareholders registered on 17 February 2026 will receive one redemption right per ordinary share, with 29 rights required to redeem one share, and trading in both redemption rights and redemption shares will be arranged on Nasdaq Stockholm during set periods through March. The timetable, culminating in expected payment around 23 March 2026, gives investors a clear window to participate, signaling a shareholder-friendly capital allocation move that may enhance returns without altering AcadeMedia’s operational footprint in the education sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ACAD) stock is a Hold with a SEK101.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AcadeMedia AB stock, see the SE:ACAD Stock Forecast page.

AcadeMedia Lifts Sales and Profit on Higher Volumes and International Expansion

AcadeMedia reported solid results for the second quarter of 2025/26, with net sales up 4.1% to SEK 5.23 billion, driven mainly by 4.5% organic growth, and operating profit rising nearly 12% to SEK 450 million as student numbers increased by 2.2%. For the first half-year, sales grew 5.2% to SEK 9.33 billion and adjusted EBITA improved 16.1%, supported by higher volumes across its school segments, strong free cash flow, and continued international expansion including two acquisitions completed after the period, underscoring the group’s strategy to gain market share in higher education and strengthen profitability for shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ACAD) stock is a Buy with a SEK117.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AcadeMedia AB stock, see the SE:ACAD Stock Forecast page.

AcadeMedia Sets 2 February Date for Q2 2025/26 Report and Investor Webcast

AcadeMedia has scheduled the release of its quarterly report for the period July–December 2025/26 for 2 February, with the report to be published at 09:30 CEST. Ahead of the publication, the company will host an English‑language telephone conference and webcast at 08:00 CEST the same day, where CEO Marcus Strömberg and CFO Petter Sylvan will present the financial results and take questions from analysts and investors; presentation materials and a replay of the webcast will be made available on the company’s website, underscoring AcadeMedia’s ongoing investor‑relations efforts and transparency with stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ACAD) stock is a Buy with a SEK117.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AcadeMedia AB stock, see the SE:ACAD Stock Forecast page.

AcadeMedia Buys German School Group Docemus to Cement Brandenburg Lead

AcadeMedia has agreed to acquire 100% of German school group Docemus-Privatschulen, adding three schools and roughly 1,400 students in the Berlin-Brandenburg area as part of its strategy to expand internationally and reduce reliance on Sweden’s school voucher system. The deal makes AcadeMedia the largest education provider in Brandenburg with about 6,000 students in Germany and expands its German footprint to 103 preschools and 12 schools, with management highlighting expected operational and structural synergies and reinforcing the company’s push to lift international operations—which currently account for just over 30% of group revenue—towards a long-term target of 50% of revenue generated outside Sweden.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ACAD) stock is a Buy with a SEK119.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AcadeMedia AB stock, see the SE:ACAD Stock Forecast page.

AcadeMedia’s Deputy CEO Katarina Wilson to Depart for New Role

AcadeMedia announced that Deputy CEO and COO, Katarina Wilson, will leave the company for a new position outside AcadeMedia. Wilson, who joined in 2016 and held various leadership roles, significantly contributed to the company’s governance and financial performance. Her responsibilities will be redistributed within the organization, and no new Deputy CEO will be appointed at this time.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ACAD) stock is a Buy with a SEK119.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AcadeMedia AB stock, see the SE:ACAD Stock Forecast page.