SAGE Therapeutics (SAGE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $446.49M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 944.39K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.64
• Revenue Growth: -47.94%
• EPS Growth: 30.94%
• Country: US
• Employees: 353
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 44
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -1.01
• Shares Outstanding: 62,620,693
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 801,969
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 944,392
• PEG Ratio: -0.10
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.03
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.37
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $8.75
• Price Target Upside: 28.68% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: ―

SAGE Therapeutics is facing considerable financial challenges with declining revenues and persistent losses. Although there are positive developments such as the growth of ZURZUVAE and reduced R&D expenses, the company's financial instability and valuation concerns weigh heavily on its stock score.

Positive Factors

Marketing Strategy

The company completed the expansion of its sales force and increased targeted marketing efforts with direct-to-consumer and social media campaigns, which should have a positive impact.

Revenue Performance

Zurzuvae collaboration revenue exceeded initial estimates, indicating better-than-expected performance.

Sales Growth

Zurzuvae sales grew with sales force expansion, representing a 21% Q/Q increase, and Sage shipped over 3,000 prescriptions, representing a 22% Q/Q increase.

Negative Factors

Buyout Prospects

The resolution of the case related to Biogen's unsolicited offer suggests a near-term buyout is not possible.

Financial Outlook

The full-year 2025 earnings per share forecast has been revised downward from -$2.80 to -$3.63, reflecting challenges in the company's financial outlook.

Strategic Uncertainty

The Board of Directors continues to advance its strategic alternatives, which may suggest uncertainty about the company's future direction.

SAGE Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

SAGE Therapeutics, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of novel medicines to treat life-altering central nervous system disorders. Based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, SAGE Therapeutics explores new pathways and mechanisms within the brain to address unmet medical needs, specifically targeting conditions such as depression, schizophrenia, and related neurological disorders. The company's core products include innovative therapies such as ZULRESSO (brexanolone) for the treatment of postpartum depression.

How the Company Makes Money

SAGE Therapeutics generates revenue primarily through the sales of its commercial products, particularly ZULRESSO, which is approved by the FDA for the treatment of postpartum depression. The company's revenue streams also include potential milestone payments, licensing fees, and royalties from strategic partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies. Additionally, SAGE Therapeutics invests in research and development to expand its pipeline of candidates, which may lead to future revenue opportunities through new product launches or expanded indications for existing therapies.

SAGE Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

SAGE Therapeutics faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues, persistent losses, and negative cash flows. While the balance sheet shows low leverage, the decreasing trend in assets and equity is concerning. The company needs to stabilize and grow its revenue base while improving operational efficiency.

Income Statement

SAGE Therapeutics has experienced a significant decline in revenue from 2020 to TTM 2025, with total revenue decreasing sharply. Gross profit margin remains relatively high, but the company is struggling with negative EBIT and net income, indicating challenges in managing operational costs and achieving profitability. The revenue growth rate is negative, reflecting a contraction in sales, which poses a significant concern for future prospects.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio is low, indicating low leverage, which is a positive aspect. However, the company’s stockholders' equity has decreased over the years, and total assets have also declined. The equity ratio remains strong, suggesting a good proportion of equity in the asset base, but the decreasing trend in assets and equity is concerning.

Cash Flow

The operating cash flow and free cash flow are both negative and have worsened from 2020 to TTM 2025, highlighting cash flow challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating inefficiencies in converting income into cash. The company has managed its cash position somewhat by reducing capital expenditures and increasing investing cash flow, but the consistent negative free cash flow is a red flag.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
47.40M	41.24M	86.45M	7.69M	6.31M	1.11B
	Gross Profit
38.58M	31.80M	84.30M	6.87M	5.75M	1.11B
	EBIT
-382.15M	-432.37M	-579.85M	-546.99M	-460.91M	596.23M
	EBITDA
-359.86M	-409.49M	-545.07M	-545.87M	-456.73M	626.60M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-354.40M	-400.67M	-541.49M	-503.27M	-450.83M	606.07M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
718.35M	504.42M	753.18M	1.27B	1.74B	2.10B
	Total Assets
767.60M	547.22M	882.28M	1.36B	1.83B	2.16B
	Total Debt
3.31M	11.84M	5.17M	12.13M	18.43M	28.10M
	Net Debt
-170.68M	-69.19M	-65.83M	-150.57M	-275.80M	-1.63B
	Total Liabilities
61.80M	82.13M	82.75M	103.85M	96.26M	86.91M
	Stockholders Equity
705.80M	465.09M	799.53M	1.25B	1.73B	2.07B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-311.09M	-267.19M	-541.14M	-460.97M	-378.55M	663.93M
	Operating Cash Flow
-311.09M	-267.19M	-540.59M	-460.04M	-378.18M	664.28M
	Investing Cash Flow
173.03M	266.68M	442.91M	325.43M	-1.00B	442.68M
	Financing Cash Flow
9.25M	10.66M	6.03M	3.07M	13.33M	426.76M

SAGE Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.80
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SAGE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.07, below the 50-day MA of 7.43, and below the 200-day MA of 7.02, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SAGE.

SAGE Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BCYC	54 Neutral	$588.91M	―	-37.13%	―	-38.14%	29.69%
Sector *	53 Neutral	$5.24B	3.07	-43.58%	2.80%	16.87%	-0.11%
CAPR	52 Neutral	$503.24M	―	-75.39%	―	-35.92%	-62.11%
AKBA	49 Neutral	$735.38M	―	91.25%	―	-17.75%	-19.17%
SAGE	49 Neutral	$446.49M	―	-63.53%	―	-47.94%	30.94%
OPT	39 Underperform	$475.10M	―		―	-25.10%	-7.06%
CGEM	35 Underperform	$466.22M	―	-36.57%	―	―	15.34%

SAGE Therapeutics Corporate Events

SAGE Therapeutics Announces CMO Resignation and Interim Appointment

On March 3, 2025, Sage Therapeutics announced the resignation of its Chief Medical Officer, Dr. Laura Gault, effective March 21, 2025, as she pursues a new opportunity. The company has appointed its current Chief Scientific Officer, Dr. Mike Quirk, to take over key responsibilities on an interim basis, ensuring continuity in strategic guidance for its clinical development programs.