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SAGE Therapeutics (SAGE)
NASDAQ:SAGE

SAGE Therapeutics (SAGE) AI Stock Analysis

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SAGE Therapeutics

(NASDAQ:SAGE)

Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$9.50
▲(4.17%Upside)
The overall stock score for SAGE is influenced primarily by its challenging financial performance, which presents significant risks. Despite some positive momentum in technical analysis and a promising earnings call focused on growth for ZURZUVAE, the negative valuation highlights persistent profitability concerns. The announced merger with Supernus Pharmaceuticals provides a positive outlook, but the existing financial issues weigh heavily on the overall score.
Positive Factors
Acquisition Offer
Supernus announced the acquisition of SAGE for up to $12/share, consisting of $8.50/share up-front and a $3.50 CVR.
Market Performance
Sage reported significant growth in Zurzuvae collaboration revenue, with a 21% increase sequentially and 120% year-over-year, indicating strong market performance.
Shareholder Value
Sage shareholders could receive an additional $3.50 per share based on achieving certain future sales milestones for Zurzuvae, which could enhance shareholder value.
Negative Factors
Commercial Competition
A deal with Supernus was unexpected, and leaves open the door for additional competition.
Financial Outlook
The EPS estimate has been updated, showing a less negative outlook than before, but it still remains negative, which may indicate ongoing challenges.
Market Challenges
There is commercial risk associated with Zurzuvae in post-partum depression, highlighting potential challenges in the market.

SAGE Therapeutics (SAGE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

SAGE Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSAGE Therapeutics (SAGE) is a biopharmaceutical company committed to developing novel therapies for central nervous system (CNS) disorders. Founded in 2010 and headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, SAGE focuses on identifying and developing medicines that target the brain's neurotransmitter pathways to address conditions such as depression, insomnia, and other CNS-related diseases. The company's flagship products include Zulresso (brexanolone) for the treatment of postpartum depression and other promising compounds in its pipeline aimed at various psychiatric and neurological conditions.
How the Company Makes MoneySAGE Therapeutics primarily generates revenue through the sale of its FDA-approved drug, Zulresso, which is used to treat postpartum depression. The company also invests heavily in research and development to bring new CNS therapies to market, which can eventually lead to additional revenue streams if these products are successfully commercialized. SAGE may enter into strategic partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies to enhance its R&D efforts and expand market access, potentially receiving milestone payments and royalties. Revenue can also be affected by factors such as drug pricing, insurance reimbursement policies, and the competitive landscape within the biopharmaceutical industry.

SAGE Therapeutics Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 20.00%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a generally positive outlook with strong growth and milestones achieved for ZURZUVAE, a significant reduction in R&D expenses, and a clear focus on pipeline opportunities. However, there remains uncertainty with ongoing strategic alternatives and continued net losses, albeit reduced.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Start for ZURZUVAE in 2025
ZURZUVAE was shipped to over 3,000 women with PPD in Q1 2025, representing a 22% increase from Q4 2024. Collaboration revenue for ZURZUVAE was $13.8 million, a 21% increase from Q4 2024.
Significant Milestone for ZURZUVAE
Since its launch, ZURZUVAE has been shipped to over 10,000 women with PPD, marking a significant milestone in advancing patient care.
R&D Cost Reduction
R&D expenses were significantly reduced by 68% in Q1 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, and by nearly 40% compared to Q4 2024.
New Pipeline Opportunities
Prioritized clinical pipeline in neuropsychiatry and neurodevelopmental disorders, with potential opportunities for SAGE-319 and NMDA receptor NAM platform.
Financial Stability
Cash runway expected to support operations to mid-2027 with existing cash, equivalents, and marketable securities of $424 million as of March 31, 2025.
Negative Updates
Continued Net Loss
Net loss for Q1 2025 was $62.2 million, although this was an improvement from a net loss of $95.8 million in Q4 2024.
Uncertain Strategic Alternatives Process
The strategic alternatives process by the Board of Directors is ongoing with no set timetable, creating uncertainty about future company directions.
Company Guidance
During Sage Therapeutics' first quarter 2025 financial results conference call, several key metrics were highlighted. The company reported that ZURZUVAE, their oral treatment for postpartum depression (PPD), was shipped to over 3,000 women, marking a 22% increase from the fourth quarter of 2024. ZURZUVAE generated $13.8 million in collaboration revenue, a 21% rise compared to the previous quarter. The company noted that more than 70% of women prescribed ZURZUVAE received it as their first new treatment for PPD, and nearly 80% of prescriptions came from OB/GYNs. Additionally, Sage's R&D expenses decreased by 68% compared to the same period in 2024, reflecting a reorganization aimed at cost savings. The company has $424 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities as of March 31, 2025, expected to support operations through mid-2027.

SAGE Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary
SAGE Therapeutics faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues, persistent losses, and negative cash flows. The balance sheet shows low leverage, but the declining trend in assets and equity is worrisome. The company needs to focus on stabilizing and growing its revenue base while improving operational efficiency to manage costs better and enhance cash flow.
Income Statement
30
Negative
SAGE Therapeutics has experienced a significant decline in revenue from 2020 to TTM 2025, with total revenue decreasing sharply. Gross profit margin remains relatively high, but the company is struggling with negative EBIT and net income, indicating challenges in managing operational costs and achieving profitability. The revenue growth rate is negative, reflecting a contraction in sales, which poses a significant concern for future prospects.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The debt-to-equity ratio is low, indicating low leverage, which is a positive aspect. However, the company’s stockholders' equity has decreased over the years, and total assets have also declined. The equity ratio remains strong, suggesting a good proportion of equity in the asset base, but the decreasing trend in assets and equity is concerning.
Cash Flow
35
Negative
The operating cash flow and free cash flow are both negative and have worsened from 2020 to TTM 2025, highlighting cash flow challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating inefficiencies in converting income into cash. The company has managed its cash position somewhat by reducing capital expenditures and increasing investing cash flow, but the consistent negative free cash flow is a red flag.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue47.40M41.24M86.45M7.69M6.31M1.11B
Gross Profit38.58M31.80M84.30M6.87M5.75M1.11B
EBITDA-359.86M-409.49M-545.07M-545.87M-456.73M626.60M
Net Income-354.40M-400.67M-541.49M-503.27M-450.83M606.07M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets469.67M547.22M882.28M1.36B1.83B2.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments423.85M504.42M753.18M1.27B1.74B2.10B
Total Debt11.86M11.84M5.17M12.13M18.43M28.10M
Total Liabilities59.82M82.13M82.75M103.85M96.26M86.91M
Stockholders Equity409.85M465.09M799.53M1.25B1.73B2.07B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-311.09M-267.19M-541.14M-460.97M-378.55M663.93M
Operating Cash Flow-311.09M-267.19M-540.59M-460.04M-378.18M664.28M
Investing Cash Flow173.03M266.68M442.91M325.43M-1.00B442.68M
Financing Cash Flow9.25M10.66M6.03M3.07M13.33M426.76M

SAGE Therapeutics Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price9.12
Price Trends
50DMA
7.40
Positive
100DMA
7.44
Positive
200DMA
6.95
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.65
Negative
RSI
72.76
Negative
STOCH
59.87
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SAGE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.96, above the 50-day MA of 7.40, and above the 200-day MA of 6.95, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.76 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SAGE.

SAGE Therapeutics Risk Analysis

SAGE Therapeutics disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. SAGE Therapeutics reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

SAGE Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
55
Neutral
$572.99M-63.53%-47.94%30.94%
52
Neutral
$509.64M-75.39%-35.92%-62.11%
51
Neutral
$7.44B0.40-61.90%2.33%17.14%1.55%
49
Neutral
$958.62M91.25%-17.75%-19.17%
48
Neutral
$501.03M-37.13%-38.14%29.69%
OPOPT
39
Underperform
$484.63M
-25.10%-7.06%
35
Underperform
$457.95M-36.57%15.34%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SAGE
SAGE Therapeutics
9.12
-1.70
-15.71%
AKBA
Akebia Therapeutics
3.64
2.68
279.17%
CAPR
Capricor Therapeutics
9.93
5.21
110.38%
BCYC
Bicycle Therapeutics
6.95
-12.86
-64.92%
OPT
Opthea Limited Sponsored ADR
3.20
1.29
67.54%
CGEM
Cullinan Management
7.53
-8.78
-53.83%

SAGE Therapeutics Corporate Events

M&A Transactions
SAGE Therapeutics Announces Merger with Supernus Pharmaceuticals
Positive
Jun 16, 2025

On June 13, 2025, Sage Therapeutics entered into a Merger Agreement with Supernus Pharmaceuticals, where Supernus will acquire Sage through a tender offer of $8.50 per share in cash, plus contingent value rights worth up to $3.50 per share. This acquisition, expected to close in the third quarter of 2025, aims to strengthen Supernus’ neuropsychiatry product portfolio, particularly with ZURZUVAE, and is anticipated to be significantly accretive by 2026, with potential cost synergies of up to $200 million annually.

The most recent analyst rating on (SAGE) stock is a Hold with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SAGE Therapeutics stock, see the SAGE Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
SAGE Therapeutics Approves Stock Plan Amendment
Neutral
Jun 13, 2025

On June 11, 2025, Sage Therapeutics held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders where key decisions were made, including the approval of an amendment to the 2014 Employee Stock Purchase Plan to increase authorized shares by 500,000. The meeting also saw the election of two Class II directors, the ratification of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent accounting firm, and approval of executive compensation, reflecting strategic moves to strengthen governance and financial oversight.

The most recent analyst rating on (SAGE) stock is a Hold with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SAGE Therapeutics stock, see the SAGE Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 17, 2025