SAGE Therapeutics (SAGE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $570.49M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.53M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.61
• Revenue Growth: -47.94%
• EPS Growth: 30.94%
• Country: US
• Employees: 353
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 40
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -1.01
• Shares Outstanding: 62,622,270
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,734,949
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,532,439
• PEG Ratio: -0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.38
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.84
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.95
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.85
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 14.02
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.34
• 1Y Price Target: $8.66
• Price Target Upside: -3.46% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: $9.50 ▲(5.91%Upside)

The overall stock score for SAGE is influenced primarily by its challenging financial performance, which presents significant risks. Despite some positive momentum in technical analysis and a promising earnings call focused on growth for ZURZUVAE, the negative valuation highlights persistent profitability concerns. The announced merger with Supernus Pharmaceuticals provides a positive outlook, but the existing financial issues weigh heavily on the overall score.

Positive Factors

Acquisition Deal

The acquisition deal includes contingent value rights (CVRs) as a potential upside for shareholders.

Stock Premium

The $12/share maximum potential offer price represents a 74% premium to Sage's closing price.

Strategic Synergies

Supernus believes the transaction can be accretive in the future and could lead to $200mn in annual cost synergies.

Negative Factors

Market Presence

SUPN does not currently hold a presence in the women's health space, potentially challenging the expansion of SAGE's PPD product.

Revenue Challenges

Current revenue estimates for SAGE fall below the targets needed to achieve CVR payouts, indicating potential challenges ahead.

Sales Visibility

The HOLD rating on SAGE was based on limited visibility into when a meaningful inflection on sales might occur and significant spending by SAGE to help make that happen.

SAGE Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Sage Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes medicines to treat central nervous system disorders. Its lead product candidate is ZULRESSO, an intravenous formulation of brexanolone for the treatment of postpartum depression (PPD) in adults. The company's product pipeline also includes zuranolone, a neuroactive steroid, which is in Phase III clinical trials for treating PPD, major depressive disorders, treatment resistant disorders, generalized anxiety disorders, and bipolar depression; and SAGE-324, a compound that is in Phase II clinical trial to treat essential tremors, as well as has completed Phase I clinical trial for epilepsy and Parkinson's diseases. In addition, its product pipeline comprises SAGE-718, an oxysterol-based positive allosteric modulator of the NMDA receptor, which has completed Phase I clinical trial for the treatment of depression, Huntington's disease, Alzheimer's disease, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, schizophrenia, and neuropathic pain. Sage Therapeutics, Inc. has a strategic collaboration with Shionogi & Co., Ltd. for the development and commercialization of zuranolone in Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea; and a collaboration and license agreement with Biogen MA Inc. to jointly develop and commercialize SAGE-217 and SAGE-324 products. The company was formerly known as Sterogen Biopharma, Inc. and changed its name to Sage Therapeutics, Inc. in September 2011. Sage Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

SAGE Therapeutics primarily generates revenue through the sale of its FDA-approved drug, Zulresso, which is used to treat postpartum depression. The company also invests heavily in research and development to bring new CNS therapies to market, which can eventually lead to additional revenue streams if these products are successfully commercialized. SAGE may enter into strategic partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies to enhance its R&D efforts and expand market access, potentially receiving milestone payments and royalties. Revenue can also be affected by factors such as drug pricing, insurance reimbursement policies, and the competitive landscape within the biopharmaceutical industry.

SAGE Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

SAGE Therapeutics faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues, persistent losses, and negative cash flows. While the balance sheet shows low leverage, the declining trend in assets and equity is worrisome. The company needs to focus on stabilizing and growing its revenue base while improving operational efficiency to manage costs better and enhance cash flow.

Income Statement

SAGE Therapeutics has experienced a significant decline in revenue from 2020 to TTM 2025, with total revenue decreasing sharply. Gross profit margin remains relatively high, but the company is struggling with negative EBIT and net income, indicating challenges in managing operational costs and achieving profitability. The revenue growth rate is negative, reflecting a contraction in sales, which poses a significant concern for future prospects.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio is low, indicating low leverage, which is a positive aspect. However, the company’s stockholders' equity has decreased over the years, and total assets have also declined. The equity ratio remains strong, suggesting a good proportion of equity in the asset base, but the decreasing trend in assets and equity is concerning.

Cash Flow

The operating cash flow and free cash flow are both negative and have worsened from 2020 to TTM 2025, highlighting cash flow challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating inefficiencies in converting income into cash. The company has managed its cash position somewhat by reducing capital expenditures and increasing investing cash flow, but the consistent negative free cash flow is a red flag.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	41.24M	86.45M	7.69M	6.31M	1.11B
Gross Profit	31.80M	84.30M	6.87M	5.75M	1.11B
EBITDA	-409.49M	-545.07M	-545.87M	-456.73M	626.60M
Net Income	-400.67M	-541.49M	-503.27M	-450.83M	606.07M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	547.22M	882.28M	1.36B	1.83B	2.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	504.42M	753.18M	1.27B	1.74B	2.10B
Total Debt	11.84M	5.17M	12.13M	18.43M	28.10M
Total Liabilities	82.13M	82.75M	103.85M	96.26M	86.91M
Stockholders Equity	465.09M	799.53M	1.25B	1.73B	2.07B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-267.19M	-541.14M	-460.97M	-378.55M	663.93M
Operating Cash Flow	-267.19M	-540.59M	-460.04M	-378.18M	664.28M
Investing Cash Flow	266.68M	442.91M	325.43M	-1.00B	442.68M
Financing Cash Flow	10.66M	6.03M	3.07M	13.33M	426.76M

SAGE Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 8.97
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SAGE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.17, above the 50-day MA of 7.88, and above the 200-day MA of 7.07, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.24 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SAGE.

SAGE Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BCYC	60 Neutral	$592.37M	―	-37.13%	―	-38.14%	29.69%
SAGE	55 Neutral	$570.49M	―	-63.53%	―	-47.94%	30.94%
AKBA	49 Neutral	$1.01B	―	91.25%	―	-17.75%	-19.17%
Sector *	46 Neutral	C$195.87M	-3.29	-23.14%	1.84%	20.75%	-0.36%
CAPR	46 Neutral	$314.47M	―	-75.39%	―	-35.92%	-62.11%
OPT	39 Underperform	$481.53M	―		―	-25.10%	-7.06%
CGEM	35 Underperform	$444.38M	―	-36.57%	―	―	15.34%

SAGE Therapeutics Corporate Events

SAGE Therapeutics Announces Merger with Supernus Pharmaceuticals

On June 13, 2025, Sage Therapeutics entered into a Merger Agreement with Supernus Pharmaceuticals, where Supernus will acquire Sage through a tender offer of $8.50 per share in cash, plus contingent value rights worth up to $3.50 per share. This acquisition, expected to close in the third quarter of 2025, aims to strengthen Supernus’ neuropsychiatry product portfolio, particularly with ZURZUVAE, and is anticipated to be significantly accretive by 2026, with potential cost synergies of up to $200 million annually.

The most recent analyst rating on (SAGE) stock is a Hold with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SAGE Therapeutics stock, see the SAGE Stock Forecast page.

SAGE Therapeutics Approves Stock Plan Amendment

On June 11, 2025, Sage Therapeutics held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders where key decisions were made, including the approval of an amendment to the 2014 Employee Stock Purchase Plan to increase authorized shares by 500,000. The meeting also saw the election of two Class II directors, the ratification of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent accounting firm, and approval of executive compensation, reflecting strategic moves to strengthen governance and financial oversight.

The most recent analyst rating on (SAGE) stock is a Hold with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SAGE Therapeutics stock, see the SAGE Stock Forecast page.