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Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN)
:RIVN
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Rivian Automotive
(NASDAQ:RIVN)
54Neutral
Positive Factors
Cost Management
Recent COGS/unit trends are also encouraging ($30k+ y/y reduction in 4Q24 vs. 4Q23).
Strategic Partnerships
The joint venture with VW helped de-risk the balance sheet while validating the strategy.
Negative Factors
Financial Performance
The FY25 guide for 46k to 51k deliveries implies a midpoint of mid single digit year-over-year decline in volume, reflecting potential regulatory headwinds, increased competition, and plateauing EV demand.
Production and Deliveries
Rivian reported 1Q25 deliveries that were below the consensus estimate, showing a significant decline.
Rivian Automotive (RIVN) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$12.68B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)32.11M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.47
Revenue Growth12.09%
EPS Growth17.65%
CountryUS
Employees14,861
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength60
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-4.72
Shares Outstanding1,122,889,400
10 Day Avg. Volume38,471,365
30 Day Avg. Volume32,107,876
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)2.64
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)2.80
P/FCF Ratio2.80
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.04Price Target Upside25.25% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering22
Rivian Automotive Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionRivian Automotive, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles and accessories. The company offers five-passenger pickup trucks and sports utility vehicles. It provides Rivian Commercial Vehicle platform for electric Delivery Van with collaboration with Amazon.com. The company sells its products directly to customers in the consumer and commercial markets. Rivian Automotive, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is based in San Jose, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyRivian Automotive makes money primarily through the sale of its electric vehicles, including consumer models like the R1T and R1S, and commercial vehicles such as delivery vans developed in partnership with Amazon. The company generates revenue by selling these vehicles directly to consumers and through fleet sales to businesses. Additionally, Rivian profits from providing related services, including vehicle maintenance, charging solutions, and over-the-air software updates. A significant factor in Rivian's earnings is its strategic partnership with Amazon, which involves a large-scale order for custom electric delivery vans, highlighting the company's focus on expanding its commercial vehicle segment.
Rivian Automotive Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Rivian shows significant revenue growth, but profitability remains a challenge with ongoing operational losses. The balance sheet's strong cash position is offset by negative cash flows, highlighting the need for improved efficiency.Income Statement
Rivian Automotive has shown significant revenue growth, increasing from $55 million in 2021 to $4.97 billion in 2024. However, the company continues to operate at a loss, with a negative gross profit margin and net profit margin. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain deeply negative, indicating ongoing operational challenges. While revenue growth is promising, profitability remains a key concern.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a strong cash position with $5.29 billion in cash and short-term investments as of 2024, though stockholders' equity has decreased over time. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting manageable leverage, but the negative equity in earlier years signals financial instability. Overall, the balance sheet shows some improvement, but risks remain.50
Neutral
Cash Flow
Rivian's operating cash flow remains negative, indicating ongoing cash burn, though there is improvement from 2023 to 2024. Free cash flow is also negative, despite improvements in capital expenditures. The company relies on financing activities to support operations. Positive cash flow from financing is a temporary buffer, but the continuous negative free cash flow is a concern.40
Negative
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 4.97B | 4.43B | 1.66B | 55.00M | 0.00 | Gross Profit |
| -1.20B | -2.03B | -3.12B | -465.00M | -29.00M | EBIT |
| -4.69B | -5.74B | -6.86B | -4.22B | -1.02B | EBITDA |
| -3.39B | -4.27B | -5.99B | -4.46B | -992.00M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -4.75B | -5.43B | -6.75B | -4.72B | -1.03B |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 7.70B | 9.37B | 11.57B | 18.13B | 2.98B | Total Assets |
| 15.41B | 16.78B | 17.88B | 22.29B | 4.60B | Total Debt |
| 379.00M | 4.92B | 1.81B | 1.53B | 180.00M | Net Debt |
| -4.92B | -2.94B | -9.76B | -16.60B | -2.80B | Total Liabilities |
| 8.85B | 7.64B | 4.08B | 2.78B | 5.99B | Stockholders Equity |
| 6.56B | 9.14B | 13.80B | 19.51B | -1.38B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -2.86B | -5.89B | -6.42B | -4.42B | -1.76B | Operating Cash Flow |
| -1.72B | -4.87B | -5.05B | -2.62B | -848.00M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -1.98B | -2.51B | -1.37B | -1.79B | -914.00M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 1.14B | 3.13B | 99.00M | 19.83B | 2.50B |
Rivian Automotive Technical Analysis
Negative
11.21
Price Trends
12.11
Negative
12.51
Negative
12.79
Negative
Market Momentum
0.18
Negative
61.93
Neutral
75.04
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RIVN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.68, below the 50-day MA of 12.11, and below the 200-day MA of 12.79, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RIVN.
Rivian Automotive Risk Analysis
Rivian Automotive disclosed 91 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rivian Automotive reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Rivian Automotive Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $25.15B | 21.99 | 12.29% | ― | 15.50% | -32.48% | |
72 Outperform | $38.10B | 6.55 | 13.42% | 7.83% | 5.00% | 35.92% | |
59 Neutral | $11.18B | 10.04 | -1.58% | 3.96% | 1.31% | -16.97% | |
58 Neutral | $19.89B | ― | -17.11% | ― | 32.32% | 49.34% | |
54 Neutral | $12.68B | ― | -60.48% | ― | 12.09% | 17.65% | |
43 Neutral | $7.67B | ― | -142.49% | ― | 13.77% | 17.85% | |
37 Underperform | $6.91B | ― | -54.15% | ― | 35.71% | 8.24% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
RIVN
Rivian Automotive
11.21
0.77
7.38%
F
Ford Motor
9.24
-3.22
-25.84%
NIO
Nio
3.36
-1.01
-23.11%
LI
Li Auto
21.51
-9.75
-31.19%
XPEV
XPeng, Inc. ADR
17.74
10.36
140.38%
LCID
Lucid Group
2.45
-0.19
-7.20%
Rivian Automotive Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 20, 2025 | % Change Since: -17.63% | Next Earnings Date: May 6, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Rivian demonstrated strong progress in achieving a positive gross margin, launching successful products, and securing financial partnerships. However, challenges remain with demand uncertainties, supply chain constraints, and regulatory policy impacts. The company is strategically addressing these issues while focusing on growth and innovation.Highlights
Positive Gross Margin Achieved
Rivian reported a positive gross margin for Q4 2024, driven by a reduction of $31,000 in COGS per vehicle compared to Q4 2023, an increase in revenue per unit to $86,000, and $300 million in regulatory credit revenue.
Successful Launches and Product Innovation
The introduction of the Tri-Motor version, particularly the Dune edition, saw higher than expected take rates. Rivian also received top safety pick plus ratings for both R1S and R1T vehicles, showcasing their commitment to safety.
Strong Financial Position and Joint Venture with Volkswagen
Rivian consolidated the financial results of its joint venture with Volkswagen, which is expected to generate approximately $2 billion in revenue over the next four years. The company also secured significant funding, increasing cash equivalents and short-term investments to $7.7 billion.
Software and Services Segment Growth
The software and services segment generated $214 million in Q4 2024, with a gross margin of 28%. The segment is expected to contribute significantly to Rivian's revenue, with projections of over $1 billion for 2025.
Lowlights
Challenging Demand and Production Environment
Rivian anticipates a challenging demand environment in Q1 2025, particularly due to the impact of fires in Los Angeles, and expects to deliver fewer consumer vehicles compared to the prior quarter.
Supply Chain Constraints Impacting Production
Production in Q1 2025 is expected to be impacted by a supply shortage in the Enduro motor system, leading to a focus on building inventory to mitigate the planned plant shutdown in the second half of the year.
Uncertainty in Regulatory and Policy Environment
The fluid nature of policy and regulatory changes poses potential challenges. Rivian's guidance includes hundreds of millions of dollars of potential impacts to EBITDA due to these uncertainties.
Company Guidance
In the Rivian fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call, the company reported a positive gross margin for Q4, driven by a $31,000 reduction in cost of goods sold (COGS) per vehicle compared to the previous year. The automotive segment achieved a gross profit of $110 million with a 7% gross margin, while the software and services segment reported $60 million in gross profit, reflecting a 28% gross margin. Rivian produced 12,727 vehicles and delivered 14,183 vehicles, contributing to $1.5 billion in automotive revenue. The company also recognized nearly $300 million in regulatory credit revenue and anticipates a similar amount in 2025. Rivian's joint venture with Volkswagen Group is expected to generate approximately $2 billion in revenue over the next four years. For 2025, Rivian projects deliveries between 46,000 and 51,000 vehicles with modest full-year gross profit and an adjusted EBITDA loss ranging from $1.7 to $1.9 billion. Capital expenditures for 2025 are expected to be between $1.6 and $1.7 billion.Rivian Automotive Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Rivian Automotive Announces Q1 2025 Production Figures
Neutral
Apr 2, 2025
On April 2, 2025, Rivian Automotive announced its production and delivery figures for the first quarter of 2025, with 14,611 vehicles produced and 8,640 delivered, aligning with its previous outlook. The company reaffirmed its annual delivery guidance and scheduled the release of its first quarter financial results for May 6, 2025, indicating a stable operational performance and commitment to its strategic goals.
Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rivian Automotive Secures $6.6 Billion DOE Loan for Expansion
Positive
Jan 16, 2025
On January 16, 2025, Rivian Automotive, Inc. announced a significant agreement with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for a loan facility worth up to $6.6 billion to develop an electric vehicle manufacturing plant in Georgia. This facility will create over 7,500 jobs and facilitate the production of the new R2 SUV and R3 crossover models, enhancing Rivian’s position in the electric vehicle industry and supporting U.S. leadership in this sector. The agreement marks a major step in Rivian’s expansion, with construction expected to begin in 2026 and vehicle production anticipated by 2028.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.