Sturm Ruger & Company (RGR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $625.02M
• Dividend Yield: 1.92%
• Average Volume (3M): 160.45K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.34
• Revenue Growth: 3.90%
• EPS Growth: -92.10%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,880
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): 0.26
• Shares Outstanding: 15,944,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 202,019
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 160,450
• PEG Ratio: 1.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.87
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.97
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.78
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.11
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.79
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 76.77
• 1Y Price Target: $43.00
• Price Target Upside: 9.69% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.77
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $531.43M

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: $40.00 ▲(2.04% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/10/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/10/26

The score is held back primarily by weakened profitability/earnings volatility (including a recent loss) despite a strong, low-debt balance sheet and solid free-cash-flow generation. Technicals are mildly supportive with price above key moving averages, while valuation is constrained by a negative P/E. Earnings-call guidance is cautiously constructive on multi-year margin recovery, but near-term profitability and governance noise remain key risks.

Positive Factors

Conservative Balance Sheet

Minimal leverage, no debt and a strong current ratio provide durable financial flexibility in a cyclical end-market. This lowers bankruptcy risk, allows investment in capacity or buybacks during downturns, and supports multi‑year execution of Ruger’s Ruger 2030 strategy without financing strain.

Consistent Cash Generation

Sustained operating cash flow and recurring positive free cash flow underpin internal funding for capex, R&D, and shareholder returns. Even with volatility, multi-year cash generation supports capacity buildouts, dividend policy and buybacks without relying on external capital.

Product Innovation & Capacity Ramp

A high cadence of new platforms and strong new-product mix indicates durable product-led differentiation and share gains. Combined with Hebron capacity ramp, Ruger can scale successful launches, improve mix over time, and convert innovation into sustainable revenue and margin recovery.

Negative Factors

Profitability Deterioration

Substantial margin compression versus peak years reflects structural pressure on pricing, mix and costs. Lower margins reduce return on capital and constrain reinvestment capacity; reversing this trajectory requires sustained operational improvements and successful product premiumization.

Earnings Volatility & Recent Loss

A swing to a full‑year loss and a ~55% drop in adjusted EPS highlight earnings volatility and execution risk. This undermines predictability of cash flows and dividends, complicates long‑term planning, and raises the bar for management to deliver consistent margin recovery over multiple quarters.

Governance/Activist Overhang

A proxy contest and rights plan create sustained governance uncertainty that can distract management, affect strategic choices, and pressure capital allocation. Prolonged shareholder disputes may delay long‑term initiatives, complicate board cohesion and raise transaction or defense costs.

Sturm Ruger & Company Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells firearms under the Ruger name and trademark in the United States. It operates through two segments, Firearms and Castings. The company provides single-shot, autoloading, bolt-action, and sporting rifles; rimfire and centerfire autoloading pistols; single-action and double-action revolvers; and firearms accessories and replacement parts, as well as manufactures lever-action rifles under the Marlin name and trademark. The company also manufactures and sells steel investment castings and metal injection molding (MIM) parts. It sells its firearm products through independent wholesale distributors principally to the commercial sporting market; and castings and MIM parts directly or through manufacturers' representatives. The company also exports its firearm products through a network of commercial distributors and directly to foreign customers comprising primarily of law enforcement agencies and foreign governments. Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. was founded in 1949 and is based in Southport, Connecticut.

How the Company Makes Money

Sturm Ruger generates revenue primarily through the sale of firearms and related products. The company's revenue model is based on direct sales to distributors, retailers, and consumers, with a significant portion of its earnings coming from the retail market. Key revenue streams include the sale of firearms, ammunition, and accessories. Additionally, Sturm Ruger benefits from a strong brand reputation and a loyal customer base, which drives repeat purchases. The company also engages in strategic partnerships with distributors and retailers to enhance its market reach. Economic factors, such as changes in gun legislation and consumer demand for firearms, significantly influence its earnings. Sturm Ruger's focus on innovation and product development further contributes to its revenue by introducing new models that appeal to a broad audience.

Sturm Ruger & Company Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial profile is mixed: a very conservative balance sheet (minimal leverage) and consistently positive free cash flow support stability, but profitability has weakened materially versus prior peak years with significant margin compression and more volatile earnings; the most recent income-statement row also appears anomalous, increasing uncertainty.

Income Statement

Profitability has weakened materially versus prior years: 2024 revenue was essentially flat (-1.5%) but margins were much lower than 2021–2022 (2024 net margin ~5.7% vs. ~21.3% in 2021). The 2025 annual row shows revenue and earnings as zero with -100% revenue growth, which is inconsistent with prior years and makes the most recent trend look like a severe collapse; this significantly drags the income statement assessment. Strengths include historically strong peak-cycle margins (2020–2022), but the trajectory since 2021 points to meaningful compression and higher earnings volatility.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is very conservative with minimal debt across years (debt-to-equity consistently around ~0.4%–1.0%), which reduces financial risk and provides flexibility in a cyclical end-market. Equity remains substantial, though it has trended down from 2021 to 2024, and returns on equity have fallen from very high levels in 2020–2022 to ~9.6% in 2024, consistent with the profit slowdown. Overall leverage is a clear strength; the main weakness is declining efficiency/returns alongside softer profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains solid and generally supportive of earnings quality, with free cash flow positive every year shown. Free cash flow has been volatile (down sharply in 2022–2023, modestly improving in 2024, then down ~9.6% in 2025), but operating cash flow has remained resilient (mid-$50M range in 2024–2025). Cash conversion is decent overall, with free cash flow running at roughly ~53%–83% of net income in 2020–2024, indicating earnings are not purely accounting-driven. The key weakness is variability and the lack of consistent growth in free cash flow over the last several years.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	546.06M	535.64M	543.77M	595.84M	730.74M
Gross Profit	89.55M	114.42M	133.62M	180.09M	279.56M
EBITDA	11.26M	59.94M	81.41M	134.32M	232.91M
Net Income	-4.39M	30.56M	48.22M	88.33M	155.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	342.00M	384.03M	398.82M	484.76M	442.34M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	92.53M	105.48M	117.66M	224.31M	221.01M
Total Debt	1.80M	1.75M	2.17M	3.04M	1.48M
Total Liabilities	58.24M	64.45M	67.10M	168.03M	78.68M
Stockholders Equity	283.76M	319.58M	331.72M	316.74M	363.66M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	38.46M	34.68M	18.11M	49.50M	143.56M
Operating Cash Flow	54.31M	55.50M	33.90M	77.23M	172.34M
Investing Cash Flow	-9.48M	-13.79M	40.86M	13.21M	-107.54M
Financing Cash Flow	-36.40M	-46.86M	-124.76M	-46.31M	-63.91M

Sturm Ruger & Company Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 39.20
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RGR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 39.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.87, above the 50-day MA of 37.39, and above the 200-day MA of 36.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.44 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RGR.

Sturm Ruger & Company Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BYRN	66 Neutral	$217.87M	42.35	15.76%	―	50.99%	612.36%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
SWBI	63 Neutral	$619.35M	32.29	2.71%	5.10%	-9.08%	-71.62%
RGR	59 Neutral	$625.02M	-120.73	-1.50%	1.92%	3.90%	-92.10%
POWW	57 Neutral	$242.79M	22.47	―	―	-11.01%	-279.70%

Sturm Ruger & Company Corporate Events

Sturm Ruger Challenges Beretta’s Board Nomination, Defends Independence

On February 24, 2026, Sturm, Ruger & Co. disclosed that competitor Beretta Holding intends to nominate four directors to Ruger’s board at the 2026 annual meeting, prompting Ruger on March 9, 2026, to publicly rebut what it calls Beretta’s mischaracterizations of prior interactions. Ruger detailed how Beretta quietly accumulated a sizable stake beginning in September 2025, refused to pause purchases, and pushed for discounted shares, 25% ownership, and disproportionate board representation that Ruger says would dilute other investors and threaten its status as an independent public company.

The company said it adopted a short-term stockholder rights plan in October 2025 to counter what it describes as a creeping takeover and rejected Beretta’s demands as inconsistent with U.S. corporate governance, antitrust, and national security considerations. Ruger contrasted its own ongoing board refresh, including the February 23, 2026 appointment of three new directors and five new members over the past year, with Beretta’s campaign, and pledged to continue defending all stockholders against what it characterizes as Beretta’s coercive attempt to seize control on unfair terms while remaining open to constructive engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (RGR) stock is a Hold with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sturm Ruger & Company stock, see the RGR Stock Forecast page.

Sturm Ruger Outlines 2026 Strategy After Tough 2025

Sturm, Ruger & Company reported that 2025 was a difficult year for the firearms and broader consumer durables industries, but the company managed modest top-line growth and market share gains, with estimated sell-through up 4.5% despite a 4.1% decline in adjusted NICS background checks. On March 2, 2026, executives detailed that full-year net sales rose 1.9% to $546 million while the company swung to a net loss of $0.27 per share due to nonrecurring costs tied to leadership transition, product rationalization and organizational realignment, though it remained debt-free, generated $54 million in operating cash flow, invested heavily in capacity and innovation, and returned $36 million to shareholders via dividends and buybacks.

Management highlighted that adjusted 2025 earnings were $0.84 per share, supported by strong demand for new launches, including 65 models and three new platforms such as the Glenfield by Ruger rifle and Red Label III shotgun. Looking ahead, the company outlined a 2026 plan centered on sustaining revenue in a flat-to-down market, expanding operating margins through structural efficiencies, accelerating innovation in both firearms and accessories, and increasing production capacity under its Ruger 2030 strategy, moves that signal an emphasis on long-term profitable growth and competitive positioning despite industry headwinds.

The most recent analyst rating on (RGR) stock is a Hold with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sturm Ruger & Company stock, see the RGR Stock Forecast page.

Sturm Ruger Refreshes Board With Three Independent Directors

On February 22, 2026, long-serving directors Sandra Froman, Christopher Killoy, and Rebecca Halstead retired from the Board of Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc., with the company noting their departures were not due to any disagreements over operations, policies, or practices. The same day, the Board appointed three independent, non-management directors — automotive executive Aaron Rivers, aerospace veteran Stephen Timm, and industrial systems leader Lorin Cassidy Wolfe — to fill the vacancies, signaling a refresh of board expertise while maintaining governance continuity under the firm’s standard compensation framework and NYSE independence requirements.

The most recent analyst rating on (RGR) stock is a Hold with a $37.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sturm Ruger & Company stock, see the RGR Stock Forecast page.