CPI Card Group (PMTS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $170.42M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 74.25K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.70
• Revenue Growth: 12.48%
• EPS Growth: -7.47%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,500
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.86
• Shares Outstanding: 11,460,436
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 129,979
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 74,248
• PEG Ratio: -0.45
• Price to Book (P/B): -9.59
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.31
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.02
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.52
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.79
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.53
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.56
• 1Y Price Target: $28.33
• Price Target Upside: 90.52% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.55
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $583.59M

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: $16.00 ▲(7.60% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/07/26

The score is held back primarily by elevated balance-sheet risk (negative equity and sizable debt) and margin compression, despite solid operating and free cash flow generation. Technicals are moderately supportive (bullish vs shorter-term averages but still below the 200-day), while valuation looks reasonable on a ~11x P/E. Earnings call tone is positive with growth and deleveraging targets, but near-term tariffs, integration costs, and investment spend limit EBITDA upside.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Sustained operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for capex, acquisitions and debt paydown. Consistent cash conversion supports deleveraging targets, funds strategic investments in Integrated PayTech, and increases resilience to cyclical revenue swings over the next 2–3 years.

High‑margin Integrated PayTech growth

A high‑margin digital segment with >95% retention and expected >15% annual growth is a structural earnings driver. As scale increases, Integrated PayTech can materially lift consolidated margins and cash returns, shifting the business mix toward recurring, software‑like revenue streams.

Acquisitions and capacity expansion

Strategic M&A and targeted capital investments expanded product capability and throughput, enabling share gains and faster customer onboarding. Combined revenue contribution and new production capacity reduce unit costs and support cross‑sell opportunities over multiple years.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage and negative equity

High gross debt and negative equity raise refinancing, covenant and capital‑allocation risks. Limited balance‑sheet flexibility constrains the pace of buybacks or large M&A, requires sustained cash generation to meet deleveraging targets, and increases sensitivity to higher rates.

Tariff headwinds and margin pressure

Ongoing tariff costs and unfavorable cost mix structurally compress gross margins unless offset by price realization or mix shift. Persistent incremental tariffs and higher production costs reduce operating leverage and make margin recovery dependent on product mix and scale gains.

Integration costs and elevated investment phase

Near‑term integration expenses and above‑normal capex indicate the company is in an investment phase that will temper EBITDA and slow deleveraging. Higher ongoing investment needs can limit free cash flow flexibility until scale benefits and synergies are fully realized.

CPI Card Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CPI Card Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, production, data personalization, packaging, and fulfillment of financial payment cards. It operates through Debit and Credit, and Prepaid Debit segments. The Debit and Credit segment produces financial payment cards and provides integrated card services to card-issuing banks. Its products include Europay, Mastercard, And Visa (EMV) and non-EMV financial payment cards and metal cards, as well as private label credit cards. This segment also provides on-demand services and various integrated card services, including card personalization and fulfillment, and instant issuance services. The Prepaid Debit segment primarily offers integrated card services comprising tamper-evident security packaging services to prepaid debit card providers. It also produces financial payment cards issued on the networks of the payment card brands. It serves issuers of debit and credit cards, Prepaid Debit Card program managers, community banks, credit unions, group service providers, and card transaction processors in the United States. The company was formerly known as CPI Holdings I, Inc. and changed its name to CPI Card Group Inc. in August 2015. CPI Card Group Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Littleton, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

CPI Card Group generates revenue primarily through the production and personalization of payment cards. Their revenue model consists of several key streams: card production, which includes the manufacturing of plastic cards; personalization services, where cards are customized with customer-specific data; and value-added services such as card design, fulfillment, and digital payment solutions. Additionally, CPI benefits from partnerships with financial institutions and technology companies that expand their service offerings, leading to increased demand for their products. The company may also leverage economies of scale and operational efficiencies to improve profit margins, while ongoing innovation in secure payment technologies helps to drive future revenue growth.

CPI Card Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operationally resilient with positive profitability and solid cash generation (TTM operating cash flow ~$59.5M; free cash flow ~$36.6M; strong FCF growth), but margins have compressed (TTM net margin ~2.8% vs higher prior years). The biggest drag is balance-sheet risk: sizable debt (~$287M) alongside negative equity (~-$17M), which limits flexibility and raises refinancing/leverage risk.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue grew 5.4%, showing continued top-line momentum after a softer 2023. Profitability remains positive but has weakened versus prior years: TTM gross margin is ~31.9% (down from mid-30%s in 2021–2024), and TTM net margin is ~2.8% versus ~4.1% in 2024 and ~7.7% in 2022. Operating profitability is still respectable (TTM operating margin ~10.1%), but the overall trend points to margin compression and earnings pressure.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is a key concern: total debt is high at ~$287M in TTM (similar to prior years) while stockholders’ equity is negative (TTM about -$17M), which weakens financial flexibility and elevates refinancing risk. Return on equity is also negative given the negative equity base. Asset growth is evident (TTM total assets ~$403M), but the capital structure remains the main overhang.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid: TTM operating cash flow is ~$59.5M and free cash flow is ~$36.6M, with strong TTM free cash flow growth (~32%). However, cash conversion versus accounting earnings looks mixed—TTM free cash flow is ~0.60x net income, and operating cash flow coverage is ~0.56, suggesting working-capital swings and/or reinvestment needs can limit how much profit translates into cash in a given period.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	543.53M	480.60M	444.55M	475.75M	375.12M
Gross Profit	170.10M	171.22M	155.49M	175.77M	141.43M
EBITDA	77.30M	79.21M	77.31M	93.65M	74.56M
Net Income	14.95M	19.52M	23.98M	36.54M	15.94M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	403.19M	349.66M	293.68M	296.67M	268.14M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	21.70M	33.54M	12.41M	11.04M	20.68M
Total Debt	286.67M	289.47M	272.31M	291.22M	307.74M
Total Liabilities	420.52M	385.28M	345.62M	378.74M	389.16M
Stockholders Equity	-17.33M	-35.62M	-51.94M	-82.08M	-121.02M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	41.33M	34.06M	27.64M	13.47M	10.15M
Operating Cash Flow	59.50M	43.31M	34.04M	31.34M	20.23M
Investing Cash Flow	-65.13M	-9.22M	-6.22M	-17.77M	-9.92M
Financing Cash Flow	-6.22M	-12.96M	-26.44M	-23.16M	-47.23M

CPI Card Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 14.87
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PMTS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.61, above the 50-day MA of 13.40, and below the 200-day MA of 16.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.69 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PMTS.

CPI Card Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
YRD	73 Outperform	$307.61M	2.91	12.66%	10.37%	10.48%	-30.67%
LX	69 Neutral	$437.49M	3.01	16.09%	8.86%	-0.60%	135.15%
WU	68 Neutral	$2.97B	6.09	53.92%	10.18%	-2.51%	17.47%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
PMTS	59 Neutral	$170.42M	11.12	-58.78%	―	12.48%	-7.47%
GDOT	49 Neutral	$591.59M	-6.04	-10.77%	―	23.12%	19.37%

CPI Card Group Corporate Events

CPI Card Group Announces Strong Q4 Results, 2026 Outlook

On March 5, 2026, CPI Card Group reported that fourth-quarter 2025 revenue rose 22% year-on-year to a record $153.1 million, with net income up 9% to $7.4 million and adjusted EBITDA up 34% to $29.4 million. For full-year 2025, revenue increased 13% to $543.5 million, driven by the Arroweye acquisition, contactless card demand and instant issuance solutions, while net income fell 23% to $15 million due to acquisition and integration costs even as adjusted EBITDA rose 5% to $96.5 million and free cash flow climbed 21% to $41 million.

Management highlighted 2025 as a year of strategic expansion, citing the May 6 acquisition of Arroweye Solutions, completion of a new secure card production facility, entry into the closed loop prepaid market, and a strategic relationship with Australia-based Karta, alongside continued 20% growth in its SaaS-based instant issuance business. To support long-term growth, CPI has realigned into three operating and reporting segments—Secure Card Solutions, Prepaid Solutions and Integrated Paytech—effective with the March 31, 2026 quarter, and issued an initial 2026 outlook calling for high single-digit revenue growth and low-to-mid single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth, with Integrated Paytech targeted to lead segment performance.

The new segment structure, which does not change previously reported consolidated results but reclassifies prior-period segment data for comparability, is intended to better reflect CPI’s technology-driven offerings and higher-growth digital solutions. Alongside paying down $20 million of its 10% senior notes and ending 2025 with net leverage of 3.1x, CPI is investing heavily in Integrated Paytech and other technology initiatives, seeking to strengthen its competitive position as U.S. card volumes continue to expand at a mid-single-digit to high-single-digit annual rate.

The most recent analyst rating on (PMTS) stock is a Buy with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CPI Card Group stock, see the PMTS Stock Forecast page.

CPI Card Group Announces CFO Transition, Names Interim Successor

On February 13, 2026, CPI Card Group Inc. announced that Chief Financial Officer Jeffrey Hochstadt would step down from his role effective that same day, remaining with the company as an employee in an advisory capacity through June 30, 2026 to support the transition of the finance leadership. Upon his June 30, 2026 departure, he will be eligible for severance payments and benefits under the company’s existing U.S. executive severance guidelines.

Also on February 13, 2026, the company appointed Terra Grantham, Senior Vice President of Enterprise Strategy and Growth, as Interim Chief Financial Officer while she retains her current responsibilities, signaling a continuity-focused internal transition. Grantham, who joined CPI in 2017 and has over 25 years of experience in senior finance and strategy roles, steps into the interim CFO position without any special arrangements or related-party considerations and with no material change yet to her compensation, underscoring an orderly and governance-aligned succession process.

The most recent analyst rating on (PMTS) stock is a Hold with a $13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CPI Card Group stock, see the PMTS Stock Forecast page.