Progressive (PGR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $120.22B
• Dividend Yield: 2.2%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.43M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.51
• Revenue Growth: 18.35%
• EPS Growth: 32.36%
• Country: US
• Employees: 66,308
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 585,906,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,710,150
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,433,822
• PEG Ratio: 0.68
• Price to Book (P/B): 29.34
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.68
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.79
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.50
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.89
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.18
• 1Y Price Target: $238.65
• Price Target Upside: 16.31% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 18
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $241.00 ▲(17.46% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/03/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/03/26

The score is driven primarily by strong fundamental profitability and very positive earnings-call guidance/results, supported by attractive valuation (low P/E and high yield). Offsetting factors include elevated uncertainty in the latest-period financial statement comparability (notably 2025 balance sheet/cash-flow inconsistencies) and mixed technicals with price still below the 200-day average and stretched short-term momentum.

Positive Factors

Improving underwriting profitability and margins

Sustained margin expansion and a sub-90 combined ratio in 2025 indicate durable underwriting discipline and pricing power. Higher operating and net margins increase cash generation, support reinvestment in tech and product diversification, and improve resilience through underwriting cycles.

Scale, premium growth and market-share gains

Meaningful premium and policy growth plus market-share gains strengthen network effects in pricing and risk segmentation. Scale enlarges data pools (UBI/driver miles), lowers per-policy costs, and enhances cross-sell potential—fueling sustainable top-line growth and competitive advantage.

Large, conservative investment portfolio with strong returns

A near-$100B, high-credit-quality fixed-income portfolio generating strong returns provides a durable earnings buffer and liquidity source. Reliable investment income supports dividends, buybacks, and underwriting volatility absorption without sacrificing conservative asset-quality targets.

Negative Factors

2025 balance-sheet and cash-flow inconsistencies

Material inconsistencies in 2025 balance-sheet and cash-flow lines reduce confidence in capital adequacy and comparability. Unclear reported equity and cash generation complicate leverage, solvency assessment and capital-allocation planning, increasing medium-term execution and regulatory risk.

Regulatory pressure and Florida rate cuts

Persistent state-level affordability actions and large one-off credits in Florida create structural pricing constraints in a sizable market. Continued regulatory pressure can limit rate adequacy, compress margins and force product redesign or increased capital cushions over the medium term.

Higher operating leverage increases sensitivity to shocks

Moving to higher premiums-to-surplus raises operating leverage and amplifies earnings volatility from underwriting and investment swings. While enabling growth, it reduces margin for error, tightens regulatory/statutory constraints, and heightens the need for conservative capital and risk management.

Progressive Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and recreational vehicles (RV). This segment's products include personal auto insurance; and special lines products, including insurance for motorcycles, ATVs, RVs, watercrafts, snowmobiles, and related products. The Commercial Lines segment provides auto-related primary liability and physical damage insurance, and business-related general liability and property insurance for autos, vans, pick-up trucks, and dump trucks used by small businesses; tractors, trailers, and straight trucks primarily used by regional general freight and expeditor-type businesses, and long-haul operators; dump trucks, log trucks, and garbage trucks used by dirt, sand and gravel, logging, and coal-type businesses; and tow trucks and wreckers used in towing services and gas/service station businesses; as well as non-fleet and airport taxis, and black-car services. The Property segment writes residential property insurance for homeowners, other property owners, and renters, as well as offers personal umbrella insurance, and primary and excess flood insurance. The company also offers policy issuance and claims adjusting services; and acts as an agent to homeowner general liability, workers' compensation insurance, and other products. In addition, it provides reinsurance services. The company sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as directly on Internet through mobile devices, and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

Progressive generates revenue primarily through underwriting insurance premiums from its policyholders. The company earns money by collecting premiums for auto and other types of insurance, which are then used to pay for claims made by policyholders. A significant portion of Progressive's revenue comes from its personal auto insurance segment, which is bolstered by its competitive pricing and effective marketing strategies. Additionally, Progressive invests its premium revenues in various financial instruments, generating investment income. The company also offers various discounts and incentives, which help attract and retain customers, ultimately contributing to higher policy sales and retention rates. Strategic partnerships with other entities, such as automotive companies and technology providers, enhance its market reach and service offerings, further solidifying its revenue streams.

Progressive Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability improved sharply versus 2022, with materially higher net and EBIT margins through 2024–2025. Offsetting this strength, the provided data shows a 2025 revenue decline and apparent 2025 balance sheet/cash-flow inconsistencies (e.g., equity drop and much lower operating/FCF), which increases comparability and interpretation risk.

Income Statement

Progressive shows a strong profitability upswing versus 2022, with net margin improving from ~1.5% (2022) to ~6.3% (2023), ~11.3% (2024), and ~12.7% (2025). Operating profitability also expanded materially (EBIT margin rising from ~2.4% in 2022 to ~16.1% in 2025), indicating a much better underwriting/expense environment. Revenue growth was solid in 2023–2024, but 2025 shows a revenue decline (about -6%), which is a watch item even as margins remain strong.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks moderate in the historical periods where debt is shown (debt-to-equity ~0.27–0.40 from 2020–2024), which is supportive of financial flexibility. However, the 2025 balance sheet appears inconsistent versus prior years (total debt shown as 0 and equity dropping sharply to ~$4.6B from ~$25.6B in 2024), creating uncertainty around capital position comparability. Return on equity is strong in 2024 (~33%), but 2025 is unusually high (~223%) driven by the much lower equity base, so that headline return should be treated cautiously.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is generally solid through 2020–2024, with free cash flow closely tracking net income (roughly ~96–98% conversion), and free cash flow growth strong in 2023–2024. The main concern is the 2025 cash flow line items: operating and free cash flow are shown as 9,843 (vs. ~$15.1B operating cash flow in 2024) and free cash flow growth is -100%, suggesting either a major one-year drop or a data scaling/consistency issue. Given that volatility/uncertainty, cash-flow strength is scored more conservatively.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	79.91B	75.34B	62.08B	49.59B	47.68B
Gross Profit	24.59B	20.90B	11.76B	7.55B	10.34B
EBITDA	13.09B	11.28B	5.46B	1.47B	4.77B
Net Income	10.16B	8.48B	3.90B	722.00M	3.35B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	91.06B	105.75B	88.69B	75.47B	71.13B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	92.83B	76.09B	62.25B	49.72B	45.00B
Total Debt	0.00	6.89B	6.89B	6.39B	4.90B
Total Liabilities	86.49B	80.15B	68.41B	59.57B	52.90B
Stockholders Equity	4.57B	25.59B	20.28B	15.89B	18.23B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	17.20B	14.83B	10.39B	6.56B	7.52B
Operating Cash Flow	17.55B	15.12B	10.64B	6.85B	7.76B
Investing Cash Flow	-14.53B	-13.75B	-10.84B	-7.96B	-3.12B
Financing Cash Flow	-3.04B	-1.32B	78.00M	1.13B	-4.52B

Progressive Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 205.18
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PGR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 205.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 207.31, below the 50-day MA of 207.62, and below the 200-day MA of 222.43, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PGR.

Progressive Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WRB	81 Outperform	$25.73B	15.63	18.88%	1.88%	11.08%	22.01%
CB	81 Outperform	$128.58B	12.00	14.69%	1.22%	6.68%	-1.78%
ALL	80 Outperform	$53.21B	5.29	39.47%	1.91%	7.07%	100.42%
CINF	77 Outperform	$25.56B	10.77	16.13%	2.10%	-0.63%	-30.68%
PGR	76 Outperform	$120.22B	13.18	40.02%	2.20%	18.35%	32.36%
TRV	76 Outperform	$65.31B	10.34	20.58%	1.49%	6.75%	30.83%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

Progressive Corporate Events

Progressive Reports January 2026 Financial Performance Update

On February 18, 2026, The Progressive Corporation reported financial results for itself and its consolidated subsidiaries covering the month ended January 31, 2026. The release provides investors and analysts with an updated snapshot of the insurer’s recent financial performance, which may influence assessments of its operating momentum and positioning within the competitive U.S. property and casualty insurance sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGR) stock is a Sell with a $205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Progressive stock, see the PGR Stock Forecast page.

Progressive reports strong Q4 2025 results, announces CFO transition

On January 28, 2026, The Progressive Corporation reported its financial results for December and the quarter ended December 31, 2025, alongside announcing that long-time Chief Financial Officer John P. Sauerland intends to retire on July 3, 2026, with Chief Strategy Officer Andrew J. Quigg expected to assume the CFO role at that time. For December 2025, Progressive posted year-over-year growth in net premiums written and earned of 6%, while net income rose 22% to $1.15 billion and earnings per share available to common shareholders increased 22% to $1.95, underpinned by a swing to $168 million in pretax net realized gains on securities and a combined ratio of 87.1. For the fourth quarter, net premiums written grew 8% and net premiums earned 10% versus the prior year quarter, with net income up 25% to $2.95 billion and per-share earnings rising 25% to $5.02, as policies in force climbed 10% to 38.6 million, led by double-digit expansion in personal auto and special lines, signaling continued profitable growth and reinforcing the company’s competitive position in both personal and commercial insurance markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGR) stock is a Hold with a $224.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Progressive stock, see the PGR Stock Forecast page.

Progressive Releases November 2025 Financial Results Update

On December 17, 2025, Progressive Corporation announced its financial results for November 2025, reflecting both performance for the month and year-to-date. This update offers stakeholders critical insights into the company’s financial health and operational progress leading up to the end of the year.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGR) stock is a Hold with a $242.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Progressive stock, see the PGR Stock Forecast page.