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Origin Materials (ORGN)
NASDAQ:ORGN
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Origin Materials
(NASDAQ:ORGN)
47Neutral
Positive Factors
Contracts and Expansion
ORGN secures $100mn contract for PET caps, expanding its production capabilities in the US and Europe.
Financial Performance
Origin's PET-based caps and closures have potential, with plans to produce millions of caps and generate positive EBITDA.
Negative Factors
Leadership Changes
The departure of co-CEO Rich Riley, who led the CMF commercialization effort, adds to the uncertainty.
Technology Uncertainty
The future of Origin's cellulose-based technology is uncertain, leading to a lower stock rating.
Origin Materials (ORGN) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$88.78M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.12M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.48
Revenue Growth8.60%
EPS Growth-441.73%
CountryUS
Employees109
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength57
IndustryChemicals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.58
Shares Outstanding149,456,680
10 Day Avg. Volume1,051,253
30 Day Avg. Volume1,122,345
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)3.60
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-4.90
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$1.50Price Target Upside154.24% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering0
Origin Materials Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMicromidas, Inc., doing business as Origin Materials, produces and commercializes plant-based PET plastic. It develops a platform for turning the carbon found in biomass into useful materials, while capturing carbon in the process. The company serves tire filler, carbon black, agriculture, and activated carbon markets. Micromidas, Inc. has a strategic alliance with Palantir Technologies Inc. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is based in West Sacramento, California with a facility in Sarnia, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyOrigin Materials generates revenue through the commercialization of its bio-based materials, which are sold to manufacturers seeking sustainable alternatives to traditional, petroleum-based products. The company's revenue streams primarily include the sale of its carbon-negative materials and technology licensing agreements that enable other companies to utilize Origin's proprietary technology for their own production processes. Significant partnerships with industry leaders in sectors such as consumer goods, packaging, and automotive also contribute to its earnings, as these collaborations often involve joint development agreements and supply contracts. Additionally, Origin Materials may benefit from government incentives and grants aimed at promoting sustainable manufacturing practices.
Origin Materials Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Origin Materials presents a mixed financial picture. While revenue is growing, profitability and cash flows are under strain. The balance sheet remains stable, though declining equity levels could pose future risks. Improvements in operational efficiency are necessary to enhance financial health.Income Statement
Origin Materials shows a challenging financial performance with negative EBIT and net income in the latest year, reflecting operational difficulties. Despite a positive revenue growth, the gross profit margin is low, suggesting high costs relative to revenue.40
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is relatively strong with a low debt-to-equity ratio and a high equity ratio, indicating financial stability. However, the company has been experiencing declining equity levels over the years, which could be a concern if this trend continues.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow performance is mixed, featuring negative operating cash flow and free cash flow, which could affect operational sustainability. The positive free cash flow growth rate from the previous year offers some optimism, but overall cash flow remains under pressure.50
Neutral
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 31.28M | 28.80M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Gross Profit |
| 418.00K | 5.21M | -1.29M | -824.00K | -479.00K | EBIT |
| -84.86M | -54.88M | 57.02M | 50.78M | -10.38M | EBITDA |
| -71.94M | 26.82M | 79.86M | 45.75M | -10.70M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -83.70M | 23.80M | 78.57M | -37.05M | -31.45M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 102.92M | 158.26M | 323.32M | 444.10M | 1.31M | Total Assets |
| 378.03M | 461.83M | 493.70M | 510.42M | 47.43M | Total Debt |
| 9.68M | 9.76M | 8.71M | 6.96M | 9.33M | Net Debt |
| -46.62M | -65.74M | -99.14M | -39.68M | 8.02M | Total Liabilities |
| 39.66M | 39.33M | 116.80M | 206.91M | 47.31M | Stockholders Equity |
| 338.37M | 422.51M | 376.90M | 303.51M | 123.00K |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -59.78M | -170.46M | -110.03M | -34.51M | -7.51M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -50.83M | -60.35M | -26.09M | -22.04M | -5.46M | Investing Cash Flow |
| 28.56M | 26.23M | 88.85M | -411.64M | -2.05M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 3.56M | 146.00K | 1.25M | 478.95M | 5.83M |
Origin Materials Technical Analysis
Negative
0.59
Price Trends
0.77
Negative
0.94
Negative
1.10
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.06
Negative
40.14
Neutral
77.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ORGN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.64, below the 50-day MA of 0.77, and below the 200-day MA of 1.10, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ORGN.
Origin Materials Risk Analysis
Origin Materials disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Origin Materials reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Origin Materials Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (48)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
50 Neutral | $139.12M | ― | -20.54% | ― | ― | ― | |
48 Neutral | $1.92B | -1.99 | -22.85% | 3.95% | 0.94% | -27.31% | |
47 Neutral | $88.78M | ― | -22.00% | ― | 8.60% | -441.73% | |
42 Neutral | $62.06M | ― | -23.38% | ― | -21.07% | -104.32% | |
38 Underperform | $50.00M | ― | -449.80% | ― | 5.45% | -155.56% | |
38 Underperform | $90.58M | ― | -85.33% | ― | ― | -42.39% | |
35 Underperform | $46.85M | ― | 63.45% | ― | -98.13% | -444.28% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
ORGN
Origin Materials
0.60
0.02
3.45%
ALTO
Alto Ingredients
0.80
-1.11
-58.12%
LOOP
Loop Industries
1.11
-1.55
-58.27%
AREC
American Resources
1.29
-0.10
-7.19%
ABAT
American Battery Technology
1.17
-0.19
-13.97%
PLL
Piedmont Lithium
6.57
-5.87
-47.19%
Origin Materials Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Mar 13, 2025 | % Change Since: -30.59% | Next Earnings Date: May 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call indicates a company in transition, achieving significant milestones with the launch of its first commercial manufacturing line and facing strong market demand. However, there are challenges in scaling production quickly and achieving financial targets, with delays impacting short-term revenue and profitability timelines.Highlights
Successful Launch of First Commercial Line
Origin Materials successfully launched its first commercial PET cap manufacturing line, Catformer line one, marking a significant milestone in the company's journey.
Strong Demand and Customer Interest
The company has received strong demand for its PET caps, with multiple customers signing MOUs and significant indicative demand exceeding their current fulfillment capabilities.
Expansion Plans and Future Growth
Three new Catformer lines are nearing completion, and Origin expects to have eight Catformer lines online by the end of 2025, with plans for additional lines in 2026.
Innovative Technology and IP Portfolio
Origin's technology advantage includes a thermal forming process that allows for faster production and thinner caps. The company holds over seventy issued patents, protecting their innovative methods.
Improving Financial Metrics
Origin ended the year with $103 million in cash, hitting the low end of their cash burn guidance. They anticipate strong revenue generation by Q4 2025 and a range of $110 million to $140 million in revenue for 2026.
Lowlights
Delayed Production and Revenue
The start of production for the first Catformer line was slower than expected, pushing back revenue recognition and the timeline for achieving EBITDA positive results to the end of 2026.
Challenges in Meeting Demand
Origin is facing challenges in ramping up supply quickly enough to meet strong demand, indicating a need for faster deployment of production lines.
Reduced Quarterly Revenue
Fourth-quarter revenue decreased to $9.2 million from $13.1 million in the prior year quarter, highlighting a temporary downturn in financial performance.
Increased Operating Expenses
For the full year 2024, operating expenses increased by $25.2 million compared to the prior year, primarily due to non-cash impairment charges and higher depreciation expenses.
Company Guidance
During the Origin Materials Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Call, key metrics and guidance were discussed extensively. Origin announced that the first Catformer production line is operational and has begun commercial production of PET caps, targeting a $65 billion market. By the end of 2025, Origin expects to have eight Catformer lines online, with the first beverage products featuring Origin caps potentially available by late Q2 or Q3 2025. The company anticipates substantial improvements in cap throughput and expects Catformer line eight's output to double compared to line one. Origin projects revenue between $110 million and $140 million in 2026, with profitability on an EBITDA run-rate basis anticipated by the end of 2026. They ended 2024 with $103 million in cash and equivalents, achieving a $55 million cash burn, at the low end of their guidance. Operating expenses for 2024 increased by $25.2 million compared to the prior year, primarily due to a $15.2 million non-cash impairment charge and higher depreciation expenses associated with OriginOne. The company is focused on debt financing to support its growth strategy, given its belief that its stock is undervalued.Origin Materials Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Origin Materials Announces Leadership Changes and Appointments
Neutral
Dec 17, 2024
Origin Materials announced the resignation of Rich Riley as Co-CEO and board member, effective December 31, 2024. John Bissell will continue as the sole CEO, while Rich Riley will provide advisory services until January 2026. Additionally, Matt Plavan, the current CFO, has been appointed as the Chief Operating Officer while retaining his CFO responsibilities.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.