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OncoCyte Corp (OCX)
NASDAQ:OCX
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OncoCyte
(NASDAQ:OCX)
Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▲(1.01%Upside)
Positive Factors
Market Strategy
The use of dd-cfDNA as a biomarker for transplant rejection is validated and broadly adopted across transplant centers in the U.S.
Product Launch
OCX's launch of GraftAssureIQ is going well and OCX continues to sign on transplant centers ahead of its GraftAssureDx Kidney kitted test launch.
Strategic Growth
Plans for GraftAssureDx suggest future growth opportunities for OncoCyte.
Negative Factors
Financial Challenges
Cash use is a significant topic of discussion, indicating potential financial challenges for OncoCyte.
Leadership Impact
Shares have traded down 66% since Josh Riggs took the helm on an interim basis.
Tariff Concerns
Tariff exposure is a concern that could negatively impact OncoCyte.
OncoCyte (OCX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$84.94M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)38.70K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.69
Revenue Growth178.08%
EPS Growth86.04%
CountryUS
Employees46
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength42
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.19
Shares Outstanding28,599,285
10 Day Avg. Volume23,428
30 Day Avg. Volume38,697
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-4.03
Price to Book (P/B)-4.55
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-3.23
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.13Price Target Upside106.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
OncoCyte Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionOncoCyte Corporation, a molecular diagnostics company, researches, develops, and commercializes proprietary laboratory-developed tests for the detection of cancer in the United States and internationally. The company offers DetermaRx, a molecular test for early-stage adenocarcinoma of the lung; and DetermaIO, a proprietary gene expression assay. It also provides biomarker discovery testing, assay design and development, and clinical trial support services, as well as various biomarker tests for pharmaceutical companies. The company has a collaboration agreement with Life Technologies Corporation to develop and collaborate in the commercialization of Oncomine Comprehensive Assay Plus and Determa IO assay for use with Ion Torrent Genexus integrated sequencer and purification system. OncoCyte Corporation was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Irvine, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyOncoCyte makes money through the sale of its proprietary diagnostic tests that are designed to detect cancer at various stages. The company generates revenue by marketing these tests to healthcare providers, hospitals, and laboratories. Key revenue streams include the sales of its diagnostic products and potential licensing agreements with other biotech firms. Additionally, OncoCyte may engage in partnerships or collaborations with pharmaceutical companies, research institutions, or healthcare organizations to expand its market reach and enhance its product offerings. Revenue can also be influenced by reimbursement policies and the adoption rate of its technologies in the medical community.
OncoCyte Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 5.69%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call conveyed a cautiously optimistic outlook, with significant progress in clinical trials and strong interest from transplant centers and pharma partners. However, challenges remain in managing revenue volatility and cash burn.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Central IRB Approval for Clinical Trial
OncoCyte finalized their clinical trial design and received central IRB approval, marking a key milestone in safety and ethics review for their trial.
Strong Revenue from Pharma Services
Pharma services revenue of $2.1 million exceeded expectations, with gross margins of 62%. A large order late in the quarter enabled invoicing of $1.4 million.
Interest from Top Transplant Centers
OncoCyte expects to welcome at least 3 of the top 10 U.S. transplant centers as clinical trial participants, representing nearly 10% of U.S. transplant volumes.
Global Expansion of RUO Sites
10 sites are currently running OncoCyte's RUO assay in the U.S., Germany, U.K., Switzerland, Austria, and Southeast Asia.
Digital PCR Differentiation
OncoCyte is proving the value of digital PCR as a technology differentiator, offering simpler, faster, and cost-effective solutions compared to NGS.
Positive Feedback on DetermaIO
DetermaIO is showing promise in the drug rescue category, with potential partners expressing admiration for the results.
Strong Cash Position
OncoCyte concluded the first quarter with nearly $33 million in cash, including restricted cash to be accessed later this year.
Negative Updates
Volatile Pharma Services Revenue
Pharma services revenue is expected to be less than $500,000 in Q2, with no services invoiced in April, highlighting revenue lumpiness.
Negative Free Cash Flow
Free cash flow was negative $6.2 million in the quarter, aligned with the target average quarterly cash burn of $6 million.
Potential Delays in FDA Submission
While OncoCyte is on track for FDA submission by year-end, several work streams must come together, posing potential risks to timelines.
Company Guidance
During OncoCyte's First Quarter 2025 Results call, the company outlined key guidance and metrics for the fiscal year. Their primary objectives include finalizing the clinical assay and trial design, completing a clinical trial to submit a data package to the FDA by the end of 2025, and ramping up revenue in 2026 by signing transplant centers for their research use-only kit. OncoCyte aims to have 20 sites trained on their GraftAssure workflow by the end of 2025, expanding from the 10 sites currently using their RUO assay across the U.S., Germany, U.K., Switzerland, Austria, and Southeast Asia. The company achieved central IRB approval for their clinical trial and anticipates participation from at least 3 of the top 10 U.S. transplant centers. Additionally, OncoCyte reported Q1 pharma services revenue of $2.1 million, with gross margins at 62%, and ended the quarter with nearly $33 million in cash. The company targets a cash burn rate of approximately $6 million per quarter until their commercial launch next year.OncoCyte Financial Statement Overview
Summary
OncoCyte faces significant financial hurdles. Despite revenue growth, the company remains unprofitable with negative margins. The balance sheet highlights financial instability, with negative equity and a high debt load. Cash flow problems persist, with negative operating and free cash flows. Financial sustainability is a major concern, requiring strategic restructuring or capital infusion.Income Statement
The income statement reveals significant challenges. Despite revenue growth from $1.50M in 2023 to $1.88M in 2024, the company has struggled with profitability, showing consistent net losses, with a net income of -$60.66M in 2024. Gross profit margins have slightly improved but remain low. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, indicating operational inefficiency.20
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows financial instability. The company's equity has become negative in 2024, with a debt-to-equity ratio that's not calculable due to negative equity. The equity ratio has significantly deteriorated, and the company has a high level of liabilities relative to assets, indicating financial distress.15
Very Negative
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis points to severe liquidity issues. Operating cash flow is negative and free cash flow has worsened, showing no signs of improvement. The financing cash flow is positive, indicating reliance on external financing, but the free cash flow to net income ratio suggests cash flow challenges.25
Negative
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 1.88M | 1.50M | 958.00K | 7.73M | 1.22M | Gross Profit |
| 740.00K | 413.00K | -18.00K | 188.00K | -639.00K | EBIT |
| -61.04M | -25.14M | -18.00M | -46.95M | -29.71M | EBITDA |
| -59.02M | -23.12M | -13.31M | -48.46M | -30.54M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -60.66M | -27.78M | -73.44M | -64.10M | -29.93M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 8.64M | 9.43M | 20.43M | 36.51M | 7.82M | Total Assets |
| 35.08M | 74.89M | 100.09M | 159.56M | 55.42M | Total Debt |
| 3.66M | 2.87M | 3.54M | 5.68M | 8.63M | Net Debt |
| -4.97M | -6.56M | -16.45M | -29.93M | 1.49M | Total Liabilities |
| 47.35M | 49.30M | 65.80M | 94.35M | 21.94M | Stockholders Equity |
| -12.27M | 25.59M | 34.29M | 65.22M | 33.48M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -20.71M | -23.61M | -49.91M | -38.19M | -27.21M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -20.71M | -23.32M | -45.57M | -35.94M | -25.98M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -512.00K | -932.00K | -4.34M | -13.96M | -11.75M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 20.43M | 12.19M | 35.81M | 78.36M | 22.80M |
OncoCyte Technical Analysis
Neutral
2.97
Price Trends
3.00
Negative
2.87
Positive
2.83
Positive
Market Momentum
0.02
Positive
46.57
Neutral
12.49
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OCX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.03, below the 50-day MA of 3.00, and above the 200-day MA of 2.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.49 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for OCX.
OncoCyte Risk Analysis
OncoCyte disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. OncoCyte reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
We currently market certain IVDs that have not been cleared by the FDA in reliance on the regulatory exemption for IVDs intended for RUO, but if the FDA determines that our RUO tests do not meet the applicable requirements for exemption or have intended uses that are inconsistent with RUO tests, we may be required to suspend commercialization of such products until we can obtain the requisite FDA clearance and/or subject to FDA warning or untitled letters, seizure, injunction, fines, or other enforcement action. Q3, 2024
OncoCyte Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (54)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
56 Neutral | $91.48M | ― | -60.25% | ― | 255.31% | -141.39% | |
54 Neutral | $5.31B | 3.29 | -45.39% | 2.79% | 16.77% | -0.07% | |
49 Neutral | $84.94M | ― | -428.96% | ― | 178.08% | 86.04% | |
48 Neutral | $74.83M | ― | 149.62% | ― | -18.22% | 44.67% | |
43 Neutral | $73.98M | ― | -456.32% | ― | ― | 0.13% | |
36 Underperform | $111.06M | ― | -34.87% | ― | ― | 15.09% | |
| $63.99M | ― | -876.77% | ― | ― | ― |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
OCX
OncoCyte
2.97
0.28
10.41%
ATOS
Atossa Therapeutics
0.90
-0.30
-25.00%
MGNX
MacroGenics
1.78
-2.80
-61.14%
ELUT
Aziyo Biologics
1.90
-1.57
-45.24%
SRZN
Surrozen
8.50
-2.70
-24.11%
TELO
Telomir Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
2.15
-3.25
-60.19%
OncoCyte Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
OncoCyte Announces Executive Promotions and Compensation Changes
Neutral
Mar 10, 2025
On March 4, 2025, Oncocyte Corporation’s Board of Directors approved salary increases for key executives, effective March 10, 2025, with Joshua Riggs, Andrea James, and Ekkehard Schüetz receiving raises. Additionally, Andrea James was awarded a $25,000 bonus for her contributions since June 2024. On March 9, 2025, the Board also approved substantial RSU grants for these executives, with vesting schedules tied to continued service. Furthermore, James Liu was promoted to Vice President Accounting, Controller, Treasurer, and Principal Accounting Officer, effective March 10, 2025, with a new salary and eligibility for bonuses and RSUs, reflecting his progression within the company since 2021.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.