Orange County Bancorp (OBT) Risk Analysis

We purchase commercial and industrial loans from time to time outside our market area. We have purchased loans primarily to the medical industry that are secured by UCC blanket liens on all business assets and are distributed throughout the United States. These loan purchases may have a higher risk of loss than loans we originate because they are located outside of our primary market area. All loans purchased are in compliance with our approved underwriting standards specific to purchased loans under this program. These loans may have a higher risk of loss as our decision regarding the classification of these loans and loan loss provisions associated with these loans are made in part based upon information provided by the servicer. At December 31, 2023, our purchased commercial and industrial loans totaled $53.5 million, or 3.1% of our loan portfolio and 19.6% of our commercial and industrial loan portfolio, none of which were delinquent 60 days or more. During the year ended December 31, 2023, we did not purchase any loans from the partially guaranteed consumer loan program. If our underwriting of these purchased loans is not sufficient, our non-performing loans may increase and our earnings may decrease.

At December 31, 2023, we had $1.8 billion of deposit liabilities that have no maturity and, therefore, may be withdrawn by the depositor at any time. These deposit liabilities include our checking, savings, and money market deposit accounts. Market conditions may impact the competitive landscape for deposits in the banking industry. The rising interest rate environment and future actions the FRB may take may impact pricing and demand for deposits in the banking industry. The withdrawal of more deposits than we anticipate could have an adverse impact on our profitability as this source of funding, if not replaced by similar deposit funding, would need to be replaced with wholesale funding, the sale of interest-earning assets, or a combination of these two actions. The replacement of deposit funding with wholesale funding could cause our overall cost of funding to increase, which would reduce our net interest income. A loss of interest-earning assets could also reduce our net interest income.

Municipal deposits are a significant source of funds for our lending and investment activities. At December 31, 2023, $270.1 million, or 13.3% of our total deposits, consisted of municipal deposits from local government entities such as county, village and town governments, school districts, fire departments and other municipalities, which are collateralized by investment securities. Given our dependence on high-average balance municipal deposits as a source of funds, our inability to retain such funds could significantly and adversely affect our liquidity. Further, our municipal deposits are primarily demand deposit accounts or short-term time deposits and are therefore more sensitive to interest rate risks. If we are forced to pay higher rates on our municipal accounts to retain those funds, or if we are unable to retain such funds and we are forced to resort to other sources of funds for our lending and investment activities, such as borrowings from the FHLB, the interest expense associated with these other funding sources may be higher than the rates we are currently paying on our municipal deposits, which would adversely affect our net income.

Not applicable.

At December 31, 2023, approximately $1.4 billion, or 77.0%, of our total loan portfolio was secured by commercial real estate, almost all of which is located in our primary lending market. Future declines in the real estate values in the New York City metropolitan area and in Orange, Westchester and Rockland Counties and surrounding markets could significantly impair the value of the particular collateral securing our loans and our ability to sell the collateral upon foreclosure for an amount necessary to satisfy the borrower's obligations to us. This could require increasing our allowance for credit losses to address the decrease in the value of the real estate securing our loans, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and growth prospects.

Our loan portfolio includes commercial real estate loans, primarily loans secured by commercial retail space, office buildings and multifamily properties. At December 31, 2023, our commercial real estate loans totaled $1.3 billion, or 72.1%, of our total loan portfolio. Our commercial real estate loans expose us to greater risk of nonpayment and loss than one- to four-family family residential mortgage loans because repayment of the loans often depends on the successful operation and income stream of the borrowers. If we foreclose on these loans, our holding period for the collateral typically is longer than for a one- to four-family residential property because there are fewer potential purchasers of the collateral. Moreover, commercial real estate loans typically involve larger loan balances to single borrowers or groups of related borrowers compared to one- to four-family residential loans. Accordingly, charge-offs on commercial real estate loans may be larger on a per loan basis than those incurred with our residential or consumer loan portfolios. An unexpected adverse development on one or more of these types of loans can expose us to a significantly greater risk of loss compared to an adverse development with respect to a one- to four-family residential mortgage loan.

At December 31, 2023, $274.6 million, or 15.7% of our total loan portfolio, consisted of commercial and industrial loans (including $215 thousand of PPP loans). Our commercial and industrial loans are collateralized by general business assets, including accounts receivable, inventory and equipment and generally backed by a personal guaranty of the borrower or principal. These commercial and industrial loans are typically larger in amount than loans to individuals and, therefore, have the potential for larger losses on a per loan basis. Further, the repayment of commercial and industrial loans is dependent upon the degree of success of the borrower's underlying business. The collateral securing such loans may decline in value more rapidly than we anticipate, or may be difficult to market, sell or appraise, exposing us to increased credit risk. Significant adverse changes in the economy or local market conditions in which our commercial lending customers operate could cause rapid declines in loan collectability and the values associated with general business assets, resulting in inadequate collateral coverage that may expose us to credit losses and could adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.

We make various assumptions and judgments about the collectability of our loan portfolio, including the creditworthiness of our borrowers and the value of the real estate and other assets serving as collateral for the repayment of many of our loans. In determining the amount of the allowance for credit losses, we review our loans and our loss and delinquency experience, and we evaluate economic conditions. If our assumptions or the results of our analyses are incorrect, our allowance for credit losses may not be sufficient to cover losses inherent in our loan portfolio, resulting in additions to our allowance. In addition, our emphasis on loan growth and on increasing our portfolios of commercial real estate and commercial and industrial loans, as well as any future credit deterioration, could require us to increase our allowance for credit losses in the future. At December 31, 2023, our allowance for credit losses was 1.44% of total loans and 568.8% of nonperforming loans. Material additions to our allowance would materially decrease our net income. In addition, bank regulators periodically review our allowance for credit losses and, as a result of such reviews, we may be required to increase our provision for credit losses or recognize further loan charge-offs. Any increase in our allowance for credit losses or loan charge-offs as a result of such review or otherwise may have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

Our earnings and cash flows depend largely upon our net interest income. Interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors that are beyond our control, including general economic conditions and policies of governmental and regulatory agencies, particularly the Federal Reserve. Changes in monetary policy, including changes in interest rates, could influence the interest we receive on loans and investments and the amount of interest we pay on deposits and borrowings, which may affect our net interest margins. Such changes could also affect (i) demand for our products and services and price competition, in turn affecting our ability to originate loans and obtain deposits; (ii) the fair value of our financial assets and liabilities; (iii) the average duration of our mortgage-backed securities portfolio and other interest-earning assets; (iv) levels of defaults on loans; and (v) loan prepayments. During 2023, in response to accelerated inflation, the Federal Reserve continued to implement monetary tightening policies, resulting in increased interest rates. The Federal Reserve has signaled that interest rates may remain elevated. If the interest rates paid on deposits and other borrowings increase at a faster rate than the interest rates received on loans and other investments, our net interest income, and therefore earnings, could be adversely affected. In addition, our net interest margin may contract in a rising rate environment because our funding costs may increase faster than the yield we earn on our interest-earning assets. In a rising rate environment, demand for loans may decrease and loans with adjustable interest rates are more likely to experience a higher rate of default. Additionally, changes in interest rates also affect the fair value of the securities portfolio. Generally, the value of securities moves inversely with changes in interest rates. The combination of these events may adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations. Earnings could also be adversely affected if the interest rates received on loans and other investments fall more quickly than the interest rates paid on deposits and other borrowings. In addition, in a falling rate environment or the recent pandemic-related environment where the Federal Reserve held the federal reference rate near 0.00%, loans may be prepaid sooner than we expect, which could result in a delay between when we receive the prepayment and when we are able to redeploy the funds into new interest-earning assets and in a decrease in the amount of interest income we are able to earn on those assets. If we are unable to manage these risks effectively, our financial condition and results of operations could be materially adversely affected. Any substantial, unexpected or prolonged change in market interest rates could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations. Also, our interest rate risk modeling techniques and assumptions likely may not fully predict or capture the impact of actual interest rate changes on our balance sheet.

Federal regulations establish minimum capital requirements for insured depository institutions, including minimum risk-based capital and leverage ratios and define what constitutes "capital" for calculating these ratios. The regulations also establish a "capital conservation buffer" of 2.5%, effectively resulting in the following minimum capital ratios after giving effect to the additional capital conservation buffer: (1) a common equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 7.0%, (2) a Tier 1 to risk-based assets capital ratio of 8.5%, and (3) a total capital ratio of 10.5%. Additionally, if our consolidated assets increase to $3.0 billion or larger, the Company would be subject to consolidated holding company capital requirements similar to those applicable to Orange Bank & Trust Company. The application of such stringent capital requirements could, among other things, result in lower returns on equity, requiring the raising of additional capital, and resulting in regulatory actions constraining us from paying dividends or repurchasing shares if we are unable to comply with such requirements.

We operate in diverse markets and rely on the ability of our employees and systems to process a high number of transactions. Operational risk is the risk of loss resulting from our operations, including but not limited to, the risk of fraud by employees or persons outside our company, the execution of unauthorized transactions by employees, errors relating to transaction processing and technology, breaches of our internal control systems and compliance requirements. Insurance coverage may not be available for such losses, or where available, such losses may exceed insurance limits. This risk of loss also includes the potential legal actions that could arise as a result of operational deficiencies or as a result of non-compliance with applicable regulatory standards, adverse business decisions or their implementation, or customer attrition due to potential negative publicity. In the event of a breakdown in our internal control systems, improper operation of systems or improper employee actions, we could suffer financial loss, face regulatory action, and/or suffer damage to our reputation.

Our business strategy is to continue to grow our assets and expand our operations, including through potential strategic acquisitions. While we continue to explore acquisition opportunities as they arise, there are no plans or arrangements to make any acquisitions in the near future. Our ability to grow depends, in part, upon our ability to expand our market share, successfully attract core deposits, and to identify loan and investment opportunities as well as opportunities to generate fee-based income. We can provide no assurance that we will be successful in increasing the volume of our loans and deposits at acceptable levels and upon terms acceptable to us. We also can provide no assurance that we will be successful in expanding our operations organically or through strategic acquisitions while managing the costs and implementation risks associated with this growth strategy. We expect to continue to experience growth in the number of our employees and customers and the scope of our operations, but we may not be able to sustain our historical rate of growth or continue to grow our business at all. Our success will depend upon the ability of our officers and key employees to continue to implement and improve our operational and other systems, to manage multiple, concurrent customer relationships, and to hire, train and manage our employees. In the event that we are unable to perform all these tasks and meet these challenges effectively, including continuing to attract core deposits, our operations, and consequently our earnings, could be adversely impacted.