Nova Minerals Limited Sponsored ADR (NVA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $256.84M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 628.13K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.95
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 51.42%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Other Precious Metals
• EPS (TTM): -1.17
• Shares Outstanding: 38,012,856
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,638,102
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 628,128
• PEG Ratio: 0.00
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.18
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.37
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.50
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -813.56
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -44.33
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.34
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: $7.50 ▼(-8.54% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/13/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/13/26

The score is constrained primarily by weak financial performance (no revenue, ongoing losses, and negative operating/free cash flow) despite a relatively solid, low-leverage balance sheet. Technicals are moderately supportive with price holding above longer-term averages, but valuation remains challenged due to negative earnings and no dividend yield data.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet Strength

A sizeable equity base and zero reported debt in 2025 provide durable financial flexibility for an exploration developer. This reduces near-term insolvency risk, supports multi-stage project funding options, and gives management room to advance Estelle without immediate forced asset sales.

Successful Capital Raises

A completed ADS offering that delivered meaningful gross proceeds strengthens the company’s runway to advance exploration and studies. Durable capital access lowers short-term refinancing risk, broadens the U.S. investor base, and supports executing multi-year development milestones at Estelle.

Large Strategic Asset & Govt Support

Owning a large undeveloped gold asset provides long-term optionality: scale supports economics if advanced to production. The cited award to fast‑track antimony aligns the project with U.S. critical‑minerals strategy, enhancing access to policy support and strategic partnerships over time.

Negative Factors

No Revenue / Ongoing Losses

As an exploration/development-stage miner with no operating revenue, the company's long-term success depends on converting resources into a producing mine or a sale/jv. Persistent operating losses increase execution and financing risk and make project economics and timelines uncertain.

Negative Cash Flow & Funding Reliance

Material negative operating and free cash flows indicate the business cannot self-fund exploration and study activities. Over the medium term this structural cash burn necessitates repeated capital raises or partnerships, risking dilution or financing on less favorable terms.

Weak and Volatile Returns

Negative and volatile ROE signals poor capital efficiency converting the balance sheet into profitable operations. Such variability—including a one-off 2022 profit followed by losses—complicates forecasting project returns and increases execution risk for long-term investors.

Nova Minerals Limited Sponsored ADR Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nova Minerals Limited engages in the exploration of mineral properties in Australia and the United States. The company explores for gold deposits. Its flagship project is the Estelle Gold project that covers an area of 514 square kilometers located in the State of Alaska. The company was formerly known as Quantum Resources Limited and changed its name to Nova Minerals Limited in December 2017. Nova Minerals Limited was incorporated in 1987 and is based in Caulfield, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Nova Minerals Limited generates revenue through the exploration and potential production of gold and other precious metals. The company invests in identifying and developing high-potential mineral deposits, primarily in Alaska, which can be mined and processed for sale in global markets. Revenue is primarily driven by the sale of extracted minerals, contingent on successful exploration and development activities. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other mining and exploration companies also contribute to its financial performance by sharing resources and expertise to optimize project outcomes.

Nova Minerals Limited Sponsored ADR Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet is a relative strength with meaningful equity and minimal leverage (debt at $0 in 2025), but fundamentals are weak: no revenue, ongoing operating losses, and persistent cash burn with deeply negative free cash flow.

Income Statement

The company reports no revenue across the annual periods provided, with consistently negative gross profit and ongoing operating losses. Profitability is highly volatile: a large one-off profit in 2022 reverses to sizable net losses in 2023–2025, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) net income at about -$9.8M and annual 2024 at about -$14.6M. Overall, the income profile reflects an early-stage/mining development model with limited earnings visibility and weak margin quality.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a relative strength, supported by a sizeable equity base (about $102.2M in 2025 vs. $90.7M in 2024) and modest-to-no leverage (debt is $0 in 2025 after ~$7.1M in 2024). Total assets are stable (~$112.5M in 2025). The main weakness is returns: equity returns swing materially and are currently negative (2025 return on equity about -9.6%), reflecting losses despite a solid capital base.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains weak with operating cash flow consistently negative (about -$7.6M in 2025 vs. -$3.7M in 2024), and free cash flow also deeply negative (about -$13.4M in 2025). While the reported free cash flow growth appears to improve versus 2024 (less negative), the business still requires external funding to sustain operations and investment. Cash flow results also look noisy versus net income across years, reinforcing limited near-term self-funding capacity.

Breakdown	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	-460.42K	-530.89K	-407.15K	-327.62K	-189.80K
EBITDA	-8.77M	-12.26M	-3.18M	32.42M	-2.89M
Net Income	-9.76M	-14.59M	-10.23M	32.39M	-2.89M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	112.54M	107.25M	122.34M	108.33M	56.87M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	9.08M	3.15M	19.24M	21.28M	15.52M
Total Debt	0.00	7.06M	6.53M	862.37K	862.37K
Total Liabilities	2.69M	8.86M	8.95M	4.00M	4.29M
Stockholders Equity	102.16M	90.70M	105.60M	96.75M	46.78M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-13.39M	-16.32M	-26.94M	-28.71M	-23.18M
Operating Cash Flow	-7.64M	-3.67M	-3.08M	-2.86M	-2.14M
Investing Cash Flow	4.12M	-13.32M	-24.14M	-3.96M	-21.06M
Financing Cash Flow	9.79M	986.89K	25.16M	11.15M	34.88M

Nova Minerals Limited Sponsored ADR Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
WWR	52 Neutral	$104.36M	-3.75	-14.20%	―	―	-80.01%
USGO	52 Neutral	$150.25M	-22.02	-144.93%	―	―	37.18%
NVA	51 Neutral	$256.84M	-25.20	-11.04%	―	―	51.42%
FF	51 Neutral	$193.17M	-5.56	-18.09%	7.12%	-49.82%	-195.74%
LODE	47 Neutral	$223.39M	-1.61	-56.48%	―	48.99%	-47.78%

Nova Minerals Limited Sponsored ADR Corporate Events

Nova Minerals Raises $22.34 Million in U.S. ADS Offering After Partial Over-Allotment Exercise

On December 18, 2025, Nova Minerals Limited entered into an underwriting agreement with Think Equity LLC to conduct an underwritten public offering of 2,928,300 American Depositary Shares (ADSs), each representing 12 ordinary shares, at a public price of $6.83 per ADS, generating gross proceeds of about $20 million before fees; the offering closed on December 22, 2025. On December 22, 2025, the underwriters’ representative partially exercised an over-allotment option to purchase an additional 341,925 ADSs at the same price, with that additional sale closing on December 23, 2025 and bringing total gross proceeds from the ADS offering to approximately $22.34 million before underwriting discounts and offering expenses, strengthening Nova Minerals’ capital position and broadening its U.S. investor base.

Nova Minerals Files December 2025 Investor Presentation with SEC

Nova Minerals Limited, an Australia-based foreign private issuer listed in the United States, operates in the resources sector and reports to U.S. investors under Form 20-F disclosure standards. The company maintains its principal executive offices in Caulfield, Victoria, and is subject to the reporting regime of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign issuer.

On December 23, 2025, Nova Minerals filed a Form 6-K with the SEC, furnishing an investor-focused corporate presentation dated December 23–24, 2025, which it also posted on its website. The filing, signed by Director of Finance and Compliance Craig Bentley, makes clear that the materials are being provided for information purposes and are not deemed formally “filed” or automatically incorporated into other U.S. securities law filings, underscoring that this is primarily a disclosure and communication step aimed at updating stakeholders rather than announcing a specific transaction or operational change.

Nova Minerals Raises US$18.6 Million in ADS Offering to Advance Alaska Estelle Project

On December 18, 2025, Nova Minerals Limited entered into an underwriting agreement with ThinkEquity for an underwritten public offering of 2,928,300 American depositary shares at US$6.83 per ADS, with a 45‑day option for underwriters to purchase up to an additional 439,245 ADSs, and the offering closed on December 22, 2025. The transaction, which is expected to yield net proceeds of about US$18.6 million, strengthens Nova’s funding position to advance exploration, feasibility and environmental studies, camp expansion, permitting and initial development at its Estelle Project in Alaska, while lock-up provisions for up to six months limit additional equity issuance and at‑the‑market transactions, underscoring a near‑term focus on project execution and capital discipline for shareholders.

Nova Minerals CEO to Present at Mining Conferences on Estelle Project Developments

On December 8, 2025, Nova Minerals Limited announced that its CEO, Christopher Gerteisen, will present at the Redchip Metals & Mining Webinar and Emerging Growth Conference. The presentation will cover the latest developments in the Estelle Gold and Critical Minerals Project, highlighting its potential as one of North America’s largest undeveloped gold assets. The company will also discuss its strategy to fast-track antimony production in Alaska, following a recent $43.4 million award from the Department of War, aiming to establish the first fully domestic antimony supply chain in the United States.