Sunnova Energy International (NOVAQ) AI Stock Analysis

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Sunnova Energy International

(OTC:NOVAQ)

Rating:40Underperform

Price Target:

$0.00

▼(-100.00% Downside)

Sunnova Energy's overall stock score reflects severe financial challenges, including high leverage, negative cash flows, and recent bankruptcy filing. The lack of profitability and negative market sentiment further depress the score, making the stock a high-risk investment.

Positive Factors

Management Changes

The change in management is seen as a potential first step in a complicated debt refinancing/restructuring plan.

Project Originations

Paying the dealers is viewed positively as it could lead to more project originations, allowing the company to raise additional finance.

Tax Equity Markets

Improving conditions in tax equity capital markets are seen as encouraging, with the company trending closer to a blended ITC rate of 42%.

Negative Factors

CEO Departure

The unexpected departure of CEO John Berger could impact the anticipated refinancing and restructuring plans.

Financial Performance

NOVA's 4Q results meaningfully missed expectations across a few key metrics.

Liquidity Issues

NOVA's liquidity is constrained, with limited options outside of filing for more funds.

Sunnova Energy International (NOVAQ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$50.27K

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)7.76M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)2.48

Revenue Growth16.55%

EPS Growth15.72%

CountryUS

Employees1,796

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength83

IndustrySolar

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)N/A

Shares Outstanding125,685,005

10 Day Avg. Volume9,881,213

30 Day Avg. Volume7,762,675

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)0.00

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$0.20

Price Target Upside900.00% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Sell

Number of Analyst Covering2

Sunnova Energy International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSunnova Energy International Inc. provides residential energy services in the United States. The company offers electricity, as well as offers operations and maintenance, monitoring, repairs and replacements, equipment upgrades, on-site power optimization, and diagnostics services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a fleet of residential solar energy systems with a generation capacity of approximately 1,140 megawatts serving over 195,000 customers. Sunnova Energy International Inc. was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes MoneySunnova generates revenue through several key streams. Primarily, it earns money by providing residential solar energy systems and battery storage solutions, which homeowners can purchase or lease. The company offers Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) and solar leases, allowing customers to pay for the electricity produced by solar panels rather than purchasing the systems outright. Sunnova also benefits from federal and state incentives, including tax credits and rebates, which can enhance profitability. Additionally, the company may engage in partnerships with other entities, such as real estate developers and financial institutions, to expand its market reach and customer base. The recurring revenue from long-term contracts and the sale of energy credits further contribute to its financial performance.

Sunnova Energy International Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2025

(Q4-2024)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflected a mix of operational successes and financial challenges. While Sunnova achieved significant improvements in operational efficiency and revenue growth, it faced substantial hurdles with cash generation, market conditions, and debt maturities. The removal of future guidance and the going concern notice highlight ongoing uncertainties.

Q4-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

Operational Efficiency Improvements

Reduction in net service expense by 24% per customer, reduction in work orders opened by 12%, and reduction in average age of work orders by 83%.

Customer and Revenue Growth

17% increase in revenue to $840 million, 29% increase in interest income, and 21% growth in principal proceeds from solar loans.

Record Asset-Level Financing

Securitized $1.8 billion worth of solar assets, raised $1.3 billion of tax equity, generating over $1 billion more in asset-level financing compared to the prior year.

Increased Battery Adoption

Battery attachment rate reached 33% in Q4 2024, up from 24% in Q4 2023.

Stockholders' Equity Growth

Sunnova's stockholders' equity per share increased by 17% to $14.65.

Negative Updates

Below Expectation Cash Generation

Cash generation for 2024 fell below expectations due to high interest rates, regulatory uncertainties, and peer distress.

Reduced Guidance and Workforce

Removed 2025 and 2026 cash generation guidance and reduced headcount by over 15%, with a total decline of 30% since the end of 2023.

Challenges with Market Conditions

Faced headwinds such as tax equity slowdowns and delays in project finance markets due to political events.

Impact of Non-Core Assets Sale

Net contracted customer value per share decreased by 4% due to selling nearly all non-core solar loans at a loss.

Going Concern Notice

Issued a going concern notice due to uncertainty in addressing 2026 corporate debt maturities.

Company Guidance

During the earnings call, Sunnova provided guidance with several key metrics that highlighted their strategic adjustments and financial performance for 2024. They reported a 17% increase in revenue to $840 million and a 29% rise in interest income to $150 million. Principal proceeds from solar loans grew by 21% to $191 million. Sunnova's cumulative customer base expanded by 5%, driven by a 70% growth in solar customers, despite a reduction of 57,000 non-solar customers. They achieved a 24% reduction in net service expense per customer and a 12% reduction in work orders while decreasing the average age of a work order by 83%. The company also significantly increased their asset-level financing by securitizing $1.8 billion worth of solar assets and raising $1.3 billion in tax equity. Although their net contracted customer value per share decreased by 4% to $24.22, Sunnova's stockholders' equity per share rose by 17% to $14.65. They executed seven securitizations totaling an additional $613 million in 2024 and increased their tax equity usage by 37%. Sunnova implemented cost-saving measures, including a 30% reduction in total headcount since the end of 2023, contributing to an estimated annual cash savings of approximately $70 million. Despite challenges, such as political uncertainty and capital market pressures, Sunnova remains focused on margin over growth, asset-level funding, and addressing their 2026 corporate debt maturities by mid-2025.

Sunnova Energy International Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income Statement

Balance Sheet

Cash Flow

Breakdown
Income Statement
Total Revenue
Gross Profit
EBITDA
Net Income
Balance Sheet
Total Assets
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
Total Debt
Total Liabilities
Stockholders Equity
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
Investing Cash Flow
Financing Cash Flow

Sunnova Energy International Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price0.02

Price Trends

50DMA

0.23

Negative

100DMA

0.95

Negative

200DMA

3.75

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.03

Positive

RSI

22.55

Positive

STOCH

42.39

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOVAQ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.02 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.20, below the 50-day MA of 0.23, and below the 200-day MA of 3.75, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 22.55 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NOVAQ.

Sunnova Energy International Risk Analysis

Sunnova Energy International disclosed 91 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sunnova Energy International reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Sunnova Energy International Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$35.62B	7.50	-10.94%	1.87%	8.86%	-10.27%
RUN	57 Neutral	$3.83B	―	-61.90%	―	3.27%	-81.63%
FTCI	56 Neutral	$103.83M	―	-175.83%	―	-17.53%	8.53%
TURB	54 Neutral	$25.56M	―	-84.64%	―	-26.62%	-65.66%
SPRU	46 Neutral	$27.46M	―	-47.48%	―	22.78%	-27.59%
SMXT	41 Neutral	$67.34M	―		―	-27.65%	16.39%
NOVAQ	40 Underperform	$50.27K	―	-21.91%	―	16.55%	15.72%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NOVAQ

Sunnova Energy International

0.02

-10.72

-99.81%

RUN

Sunrun

15.80

-4.80

-23.30%

SPRU

Spruce Power Holding

1.47

-1.56

-51.49%

FTCI

FTC Solar

6.46

4.02

164.75%

TURB

Turbo Energy, S.A. Sponsored ADR

2.28

0.64

39.02%

SMXT

SolarMax Technology, Inc.

1.26

-0.44

-25.88%

Sunnova Energy International Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy

Sunnova Completes Sale of New Home Assets

Neutral

Jun 17, 2025

On June 16, 2025, Sunnova Energy International completed the sale of its New Home WIP Assets to Lennar Homes for approximately $15.2 million. This transaction involved the acquisition of system leases, sale contracts, and related assets, potentially impacting Sunnova’s market positioning and operational focus in the solar energy sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOVAQ) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sunnova Energy International stock, see the NOVAQ Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingM&A TransactionsLegal Proceedings

Sunnova Energy Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy

Negative

Jun 16, 2025

On June 8, 2025, Sunnova Energy International, along with its subsidiaries, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the Southern District of Texas. To support its operations during the bankruptcy proceedings, the company secured a $90 million debtor-in-possession loan. Additionally, Sunnova entered into an asset purchase agreement with Solaris Assets, LLC, to sell most of its assets, excluding certain tax equity partnerships, for $10 million in cash and a credit bid. The transaction is subject to higher offers from competing bidders through a court-supervised auction process.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 30, 2025