Noah Holdings (NOAH) AI Stock Analysis

216 Followers

Top Page

Noah Holdings

(NYSE:NOAH)

76Outperform

Noah Holdings’ overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and attractive valuation, offset by mixed technical indicators and domestic revenue challenges. The company’s strategic international expansion offers growth potential, while its financial stability supports long-term resilience.

Positive Factors

Operating Profit

Improving operating profit with a recovery of 70% quarter-over-quarter and 56% year-over-year, driven by overseas insurance sales and cost control.

Shareholder Return

Good shareholder return with a 50% dividend payout and a US$50 million repurchase plan supports the share price amidst an uncertain macro environment.

Negative Factors

Client Franchise

Client franchise might face short-term impact from domestic restructuring, with core client numbers down 0.8% quarter-over-quarter and assets under administration down 2% quarter-over-quarter.

Noah Holdings (NOAH) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$611.26M

Dividend Yield13.1%

Average Volume (3M)111.75K

Price to Earnings (P/E)9.0

Beta (1Y)1.38

Revenue Growth-20.10%

EPS Growth176.99%

CountryUS

Employees2,583

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength79

IndustryAsset Management

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)5.06

Shares Outstanding67,472,496

10 Day Avg. Volume164,876

30 Day Avg. Volume111,752

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.06

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)1.60

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)N/A

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$11.50

Price Target Upside39.06% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering1

Noah Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNoah Holdings Limited (NOAH) is a leading wealth and asset management service provider focused on catering to high net worth individuals in China. The company offers comprehensive financial products and services, including wealth management, asset management, and other financial advisory services. Noah Holdings operates across multiple sectors, providing its clients with diversified financial solutions tailored to meet their unique investment needs.

How the Company Makes MoneyNoah Holdings primarily generates revenue through its wealth management and asset management services. The wealth management segment earns money by distributing financial products to clients, which includes mutual funds, private equity funds, real estate funds, hedge funds, and other investment vehicles. Noah Holdings earns service fees and commissions from these activities. In its asset management segment, the company manages a range of investment funds and charges management and performance fees. Additionally, the company may benefit from strategic partnerships and collaborations with financial institutions that enhance its service offerings and expand its client base. Overall, Noah Holdings’ earnings are driven by its ability to provide high-quality, tailored financial solutions to its affluent clientele.

Noah Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Noah Holdings demonstrates robust financial performance with strong profitability margins and cash flow generation. The company maintains low leverage and a solid equity position. While ROE could be improved, the overall financial health is strong, with stable revenue growth and efficient operations.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Noah Holdings demonstrates a healthy financial performance with strong margins. The TTM Gross Profit Margin is 55.8% and Net Profit Margin is 30.6%, indicating efficient cost management and profitability. Revenue growth rate from the previous year is approximately 6.3%, which is moderate given the industry context. The EBIT Margin of 33.3% and EBITDA Margin of 38.1% further highlight operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement shows stable and growing revenues with robust profitability.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet of Noah Holdings reflects a solid equity position with an Equity Ratio of 81.3%. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is low at 0.01, indicating minimal leverage and financial risk. The Return on Equity (ROE) stands at 9.8%, showing reasonable returns to shareholders. While there is a strong equity base, the relatively modest ROE suggests that there may be room for improvement in generating higher returns.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Noah Holdings exhibits strong cash flow generation capabilities. The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate is an impressive 103.5%, showcasing significant improvement in free cash flow generation. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.31, indicating efficient conversion of income into cash. Furthermore, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.15, emphasizing robust cash flow relative to net income. These metrics indicate a strong cash position and effective cash management.

TTM	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020	Dec 2019
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.75B	3.29B	3.10B	4.29B	3.31B	3.39B
	Gross Profit
1.79B	1.84B	1.54B	2.12B	1.80B	1.78B
	EBIT
717.04M	1.10B	1.09B	1.20B	1.26B	914.97M
	EBITDA
717.04M	1.26B	1.24B	1.35B	1.36B	1.02B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
582.22M	1.01B	976.57M	1.00B	-843.78M	829.15M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
991.80M	5.57B	4.72B	3.50B	5.12B	5.06B
	Total Assets
1.14B	12.69B	11.80B	10.89B	9.40B	9.80B
	Total Debt
0.00	138.36M	167.53M	130.96M	272.21M	362.76M
	Net Debt
-861.40M	-5.05B	-4.24B	-3.27B	-4.73B	-4.02B
	Total Liabilities
125.40M	2.26B	2.30B	2.75B	2.12B	1.93B
	Stockholders Equity
1.01B	10.31B	9.41B	8.14B	7.28B	7.87B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
0.00	1.16B	570.19M	-749.38M	744.74M	1.22B
	Operating Cash Flow
2.78M	1.32B	632.90M	1.52B	796.35M	1.29B
	Investing Cash Flow
-102.43M	-247.14M	74.29M	-2.57B	352.58M	-182.01M
	Financing Cash Flow
-69.96M	-199.84M	233.76M	-513.12M	-371.42M	543.31M

Noah Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price8.27

Price Trends

50DMA

10.68

Negative

100DMA

11.09

Negative

200DMA

10.39

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.32

Positive

RSI

30.56

Neutral

STOCH

5.46

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOAH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.01, below the 50-day MA of 10.68, and below the 200-day MA of 10.39, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.46 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NOAH.

Noah Holdings Risk Analysis

Noah Holdings disclosed 77 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Noah Holdings reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Noah Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (64)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NOAH	76 Outperform	$611.26M	9.01	4.68%	13.10%	-20.10%	176.99%
BIDU	76 Outperform	$28.09B	8.56	9.14%	―	-2.60%	16.71%
JHG	74 Outperform	$5.23B	12.95	8.74%	5.29%	18.85%	7.96%
MS	73 Outperform	$180.16B	14.06	13.16%	3.25%	7.16%	53.77%
SCHW	72 Outperform	$140.30B	25.19	13.30%	1.35%	1.87%	17.63%
GS	70 Outperform	$160.64B	12.75	11.95%	2.27%	14.80%	77.97%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$13.46B	9.44	9.34%	4.72%	16.14%	-8.80%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NOAH

Noah Holdings

8.27

-2.32

-21.91%

BIDU

Baidu

78.47

-23.85

-23.31%

Morgan Stanley

106.58

22.53

26.81%

SCHW

Charles Schwab

73.85

4.21

6.05%

Goldman Sachs Group

489.80

100.90

25.94%

JHG

Janus Henderson Group

30.44

-0.37

-1.20%

Noah Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 25, 2025 | % Change Since: -26.68% | Next Earnings Date: May 13, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment. While there is significant growth in overseas business and alternative investment products, the company faces challenges with declining revenues, restructuring costs, and market pressures in the domestic segment.

Highlights

Expansion of Overseas Business

Overseas net revenues accounted for 48% of total net revenues in 2024, up from 44% last year. The number of overseas relationship managers increased by 55.1% from last year, and the overseas client base grew by 15.8%.

Increase in Overseas Investment Products

Transaction value of overseas primary and private secondary products grew 45% and 22% respectively, year over year. USD-denominated AUM grew by 15.1% year over year to USD 5.8 billion.

Launch of New International Brands

Noah launched new internationally focused brands including Arc, Olive Asset Management, and Glory Family Heritage to lead efforts overseas.

Significant Increase in Alternative Investment Products

For overseas private equity, private credit, and other primary market funds, USD 663 million was raised, a 44.9% year-on-year increase.

Lowlights

Decline in Overall Revenue and Net Income

Full-year net revenues decreased by 21.1%, and non-GAAP net income fell by 46% to RMB 550 million.

Domestic Market Challenges

Net revenues from Mainland China were RMB 1.4 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 27.5% due to subdued market environment and regulatory challenges.

Restructuring Costs and Increased Tax Rate

The company faced upfront restructuring costs and an increased effective tax rate of 31.5% in 2024.

Decline in Insurance Revenue

Revenue from overseas insurance products decreased by 21.9%, with the domestic insurance brokerage business hitting a new low of RMB 43 million.

Company Guidance

During the call, Noah provided guidance on several key metrics and strategic priorities for 2025. The company's full-year net revenues for 2024 were reported at RMB 22.6 billion, representing a year-over-year decline of 21.1%, primarily affected by reduced distribution of domestic and overseas insurance products and recurring service fees from domestic private equity products. Non-GAAP net income fell by 46% to RMB 550 million, impacted by upfront restructuring costs and an increased effective tax rate of 31.5%. Despite these challenges, Noah emphasized its focus on expanding its overseas presence, with overseas net revenues contributing 48% to total net revenues, up from 44% the previous year. The number of overseas relationship managers reached 138, marking a 55.1% increase, and the company's overseas AUM grew by 15.1% to USD 5.8 billion. For 2025, Noah outlined priorities including ensuring regulatory compliance, expanding its overseas relationship manager team, growing its commission-only insurance agents, optimizing global investment solutions, and enhancing technology to better serve clients. Noah also announced a dividend of RMB 550 million, reflecting 100% of its non-GAAP net income, and continued its share repurchase program. The company remains focused on positioning itself as the preferred wealth management platform for global Mandarin-speaking clients.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.