PostNL N.V. (PNL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €452.98M
• Dividend Yield: 8.99%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.40M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.38
• Revenue Growth: 3.92%
• EPS Growth: -34.65%
• Country: NL
• Employees: 32,405
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 85
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): -0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 508,680,630
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,311,722
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,396,591
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.73
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.21
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €0.79
• Price Target Upside: -11.24% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: €1.00 ▲(12.36%Upside)

PostNL's stock score reflects financial challenges due to declining revenue and high leverage. Despite attractive dividends, technical indicators highlight weak momentum, and the valuation suggests potential overvaluation.

PostNL N.V. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

PostNL N.V. provides postal and logistics services to businesses and consumers in the Netherlands, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Parcels, Mail in the Netherlands; and PostNL Other. It collects, sorts, transports, and delivers letters and parcels; and offers data and document management, direct marketing, and fulfillment services, as well as cross-border mail solutions. The company was formerly known as TNT N.V. and changed its name to PostNL N.V. in May 2011. PostNL N.V. is headquartered in the Hague, the Netherlands.

How the Company Makes Money

PostNL generates revenue through several key streams, primarily focusing on mail and parcel delivery services. Its mail segment earns income from the collection, sorting, and delivery of letters and related products, primarily within the Netherlands. The parcel division is a significant growth driver, benefiting from the rise in e-commerce, with revenue generated from the transportation and delivery of parcels for various online retailers and businesses. Additionally, PostNL has strategic partnerships and collaborations with e-commerce platforms and other logistics providers, enhancing its service offerings and expanding its customer base. The company also derives income from value-added logistics services, such as warehousing and fulfillment solutions, further diversifying its revenue streams.

PostNL N.V. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

PostNL's financial performance is facing challenges with declining revenue and profitability trends. High leverage from the balance sheet poses risks, though the company maintains positive net income and cash flow, indicating resilience despite these pressures.

Income Statement

PostNL's income statement reflects a challenging environment with a declining revenue trend from 2021 to 2024, although there was a slight increase in 2024 compared to 2023. Gross profit margin decreased consistently, indicating pressure on cost management. The net profit margin was positive in 2024 but significantly lower than in 2021, suggesting profitability is under strain. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also weakened over the years, pointing to deteriorating operational efficiency. Despite these issues, the company managed to sustain a positive net income in 2024, showing resilience.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet for PostNL shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating substantial leverage that could pose risks in a volatile market. The return on equity is positive as of 2024, but has significantly declined from 2021 levels, reflecting reduced profitability. The equity ratio is low, suggesting the company relies heavily on debt financing. Overall, the balance sheet indicates potential financial risk due to high debt levels, despite maintaining positive equity growth over the last few years.

Cash Flow

PostNL's cash flow situation shows a decline in operating cash flow from 2021 to 2024, though 2024 still reported a positive figure. Free cash flow has also decreased over the years, reflecting challenges in sustaining cash generation after capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio remains healthy, indicating operational efficiency in converting income into cash. However, the decreasing free cash flow suggests potential difficulties in funding future growth organically.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.25B	3.17B	3.15B	3.47B	3.25B
	Gross Profit
402.00M	440.00M	487.00M	697.00M	645.00M
	EBIT
37.00M	84.00M	-1.30B	324.00M	293.00M
	EBITDA
248.00M	272.00M	-1.13B	471.00M	455.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
17.00M	55.00M	-981.00M	257.00M	217.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
453.00M	518.00M	556.00M	848.00M	651.00M
	Total Assets
2.12B	2.18B	2.22B	2.48B	2.21B
	Total Debt
972.00M	1.06B	1.07B	1.07B	1.00B
	Net Debt
519.00M	542.00M	519.00M	218.00M	351.00M
	Total Liabilities
1.92B	1.98B	2.04B	2.06B	1.99B
	Stockholders Equity
202.00M	198.00M	177.00M	426.00M	219.00M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
68.00M	96.00M	102.00M	309.00M	104.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
168.00M	222.00M	240.00M	450.00M	181.00M
	Investing Cash Flow
-61.00M	-102.00M	-122.00M	-92.00M	85.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-173.00M	-142.00M	-408.00M	-186.00M	-80.00M

PostNL N.V. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.89
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:PNL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.89 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.91, below the 50-day MA of 0.92, and below the 200-day MA of 1.00, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NL:PNL.

PostNL N.V. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FUR	79 Outperform	€1.31B	4.71	18.89%	6.52%	4.03%	8.35%
NEDAP	76 Outperform	€436.54M	23.91	21.92%	4.75%	-4.12%	-14.85%
HEIJM	72 Outperform	€1.53B	16.82	21.26%	2.95%	22.05%	35.35%
BRNL	71 Outperform	€463.69M	15.55	9.68%	5.97%	2.57%	-5.80%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$4.47B	12.21	5.40%	3.65%	4.14%	-12.00%
BAMNB	62 Neutral	€2.15B	24.71	6.85%	3.33%	2.94%	-51.65%
PNL	57 Neutral	€452.98M	22.37	10.72%	8.99%	3.92%	-34.65%