PostNL N.V. (PNL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €530.05M
• Dividend Yield: 6.72%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.65M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.58
• Revenue Growth: 2.44%
• EPS Growth: -179.02%
• Country: NL
• Employees: 32,405
• Sector: Services
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): -0.04
• Shares Outstanding: 508,680,630
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,772,362
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,647,394
• PEG Ratio: -0.44
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.16
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.62
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €0.80
• Price Target Upside: -23.08% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: €1.00 ▼(-3.85% Downside)

PostNL N.V.'s overall score reflects significant financial challenges, particularly in profitability and leverage. While technical indicators are neutral and the dividend yield is attractive, the negative P/E ratio and operational inefficiencies weigh heavily on the stock's outlook.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Positive revenue growth indicates expanding business operations and increasing demand, particularly in the e-commerce sector, which is a key driver for PostNL's Parcels segment.

Cash Flow Improvements

Improving cash flow suggests better financial management and operational efficiency, providing the company with more flexibility to invest in growth initiatives and manage debt.

E-commerce Partnerships

Strategic partnerships with e-commerce platforms enhance service offerings and expand the customer base, positioning PostNL to capitalize on the growing online shopping trend.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage poses a risk to financial stability, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and weather economic downturns.

Profitability Challenges

Ongoing profitability issues reflect operational challenges and may hinder the company's ability to generate sustainable returns for shareholders.

Operational Inefficiencies

Operational inefficiencies, as indicated by a negative EBIT margin, can impact the company's ability to optimize costs and improve profit margins, affecting long-term competitiveness.

PostNL N.V. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

PostNL N.V. is the leading postal and logistics service provider in the Netherlands, offering a comprehensive range of services across the mail, parcel, and logistics sectors. The company operates through various segments, including Mail in the Netherlands, Parcels, and International. PostNL provides services such as letter and parcel delivery, logistics solutions, and e-commerce support, catering to both individual consumers and businesses. With a strong focus on innovation and sustainability, PostNL aims to enhance its operational efficiency and customer experience.

How the Company Makes Money

PostNL generates revenue primarily through its Mail and Parcels segments. The Mail segment earns income from delivering letters and direct mail, while the Parcels segment focuses on e-commerce deliveries, which have seen significant growth due to increasing online shopping trends. The company also provides logistics services, including warehousing and supply chain solutions, which contribute to its revenue. Key partnerships with e-commerce platforms and retailers enhance its service offerings and expand its customer base. Additionally, PostNL benefits from operational efficiencies and cost management strategies that improve profitability. Seasonal peaks, such as during holidays, also drive increased demand for parcel services, further bolstering revenue.

PostNL N.V. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

PostNL N.V. faces challenges across its financial statements, with profitability and leverage being key concerns. While there is slight revenue growth, the company's profitability metrics are under pressure, and high leverage poses financial risks. Cash flow management needs improvement to ensure liquidity and support future growth. Strategic initiatives to enhance operational efficiency and reduce debt could improve financial health.

Income Statement

PostNL N.V. shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM data indicates a slight revenue growth of 0.245% compared to the previous year, but the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by negative EBIT and net income margins. The gross profit margin has decreased over time, and the net profit margin is marginally positive at 0.58%. The company needs to focus on improving operational efficiency to enhance profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 4.69 in the TTM period, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. The return on equity has improved slightly to 10.47%, but the equity ratio remains low, suggesting limited financial stability. The company should consider strategies to reduce debt and strengthen its equity base.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a concerning decline in free cash flow growth, with a significant drop of 50.59% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is relatively stable, but the free cash flow to net income ratio indicates moderate cash generation capability. Improving cash flow management is crucial for sustaining operations and supporting growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.27B	3.25B	3.17B	3.15B	3.47B	3.25B
Gross Profit	343.00M	402.00M	440.00M	487.00M	697.00M	645.00M
EBITDA	244.00M	240.00M	276.00M	-1.13B	471.00M	455.00M
Net Income	-15.00M	17.00M	55.00M	-981.00M	257.00M	217.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.10B	2.12B	2.18B	2.22B	2.48B	2.21B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	457.00M	453.00M	518.00M	556.00M	848.00M	651.00M
Total Debt	1.07B	972.00M	1.06B	1.07B	1.07B	1.00B
Total Liabilities	1.94B	1.92B	1.98B	2.04B	2.06B	1.99B
Stockholders Equity	151.00M	202.00M	198.00M	177.00M	426.00M	219.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	42.00M	68.00M	96.00M	102.00M	309.00M	104.00M
Operating Cash Flow	122.00M	168.00M	222.00M	240.00M	450.00M	181.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-137.00M	-61.00M	-102.00M	-122.00M	-92.00M	85.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-374.00M	-173.00M	-142.00M	-408.00M	-186.00M	-80.00M

PostNL N.V. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1.04
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:PNL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.02, above the 50-day MA of 0.99, and above the 200-day MA of 0.96, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NL:PNL.

PostNL N.V. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
INPST	66 Neutral	€5.09B	22.31	―	―	30.31%	0.33%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$13.29B	17.42	10.03%	0.93%	7.13%	-12.93%
PNL	51 Neutral	€530.05M	-35.90	-12.23%	6.72%	2.44%	-179.02%
RAND	46 Neutral	€5.48B	105.53	1.49%	9.24%	-3.62%	-87.74%