PostNL N.V. (PNL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €601.77M
• Dividend Yield: 6.72%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.65M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.57
• Revenue Growth: 2.44%
• EPS Growth: -179.02%
• Country: NL
• Employees: 32,405
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): -0.04
• Shares Outstanding: 508,680,630
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,772,362
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,647,394
• PEG Ratio: -0.44
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.16
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.62
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: €1.00 ▼(-15.97% Downside)

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance—negative profitability and high leverage—despite improving free cash flow. Technical signals are constructive (price above key moving averages and positive MACD), and valuation is mixed with a high dividend yield offset by losses implied by the negative P/E.

Positive Factors

Market leadership in the Netherlands

PostNL's position as the leading postal and logistics provider in the Netherlands provides scale advantages, a dense delivery network and entrenched customer relationships across mail, parcels and logistics. These structural strengths support durable market share, pricing leverage and cost efficiencies over the medium term.

Positive revenue growth trend

Reported positive revenue growth (Fundamentals shows ~2.44%) combined with secular e-commerce expansion supports sustainable parcel demand. Diversified revenues across Mail, Parcels and logistics and partnerships with e-commerce platforms help stabilize top-line growth beyond seasonal spikes, aiding durable revenue generation.

Improving free cash flow

Financial analysis notes a notable increase in free cash flow in the trailing twelve months. Improving FCF enhances the company's ability to fund operations, invest in automation and network improvements, and reduce leverage, strengthening financial flexibility and resilience over the coming months if sustained.

Negative Factors

Negative profitability and margins

The income statement shows declining gross and net margins with a negative EBIT and net income. Persistent unprofitable operations erode retained earnings and curb the firm's ability to self-fund investments or absorb shocks, requiring structural operational or pricing fixes to restore long-term profitability.

High leverage on the balance sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio and a relatively low equity ratio. Significant leverage increases refinancing and interest-rate risk, constrains strategic flexibility and amplifies volatility in returns, making sustained recovery and investment more difficult if cash flows weaken.

Weak conversion of income to cash

Cash flow analysis notes a low operating cash flow to net income ratio, indicating weak conversion of reported earnings into cash. Poor cash conversion undermines the quality of earnings, limits internal funding for capex and debt reduction, and raises medium-term sustainability concerns despite rising FCF.

PostNL N.V. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

PostNL N.V. provides postal and logistics services to businesses and consumers in the Netherlands, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Parcels, Mail in the Netherlands; and PostNL Other. It collects, sorts, transports, and delivers letters and parcels; and offers data and document management, direct marketing, and fulfillment services, as well as cross-border mail solutions. The company was formerly known as TNT N.V. and changed its name to PostNL N.V. in May 2011. PostNL N.V. is headquartered in the Hague, the Netherlands.

How the Company Makes Money

PostNL generates revenue primarily through its Mail and Parcels segments. The Mail segment earns income from delivering letters and direct mail, while the Parcels segment focuses on e-commerce deliveries, which have seen significant growth due to increasing online shopping trends. The company also provides logistics services, including warehousing and supply chain solutions, which contribute to its revenue. Key partnerships with e-commerce platforms and retailers enhance its service offerings and expand its customer base. Additionally, PostNL benefits from operational efficiencies and cost management strategies that improve profitability. Seasonal peaks, such as during holidays, also drive increased demand for parcel services, further bolstering revenue.

PostNL N.V. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Weak profitability and leverage dominate: income statement shows declining margins and negative net income with a negative EBIT margin; balance sheet is pressured by high debt-to-equity and negative ROE; cash flow is comparatively better with improving free cash flow growth, but conversion of income to cash remains low.

Income Statement

PostNL N.V. has shown a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM data indicates a decline in gross profit and net profit margins, with the company experiencing a negative net income. Revenue growth is positive, but the EBIT margin is negative, suggesting operational challenges. Historical data shows fluctuating profitability, with a significant downturn in 2022. The company needs to stabilize its operations to improve profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which poses a risk to financial stability. The return on equity has been negative in recent periods, reflecting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting limited equity financing. The company must focus on reducing debt to enhance financial health.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows some positive trends, with a notable increase in free cash flow growth in the TTM period. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, indicating potential issues in converting income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is moderate, suggesting some ability to generate cash relative to net income. Overall, cash flow management appears to be improving but requires further strengthening.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.29B	3.25B	3.17B	3.15B	3.47B	3.25B
Gross Profit	349.00M	402.00M	440.00M	487.00M	697.00M	645.00M
EBITDA	244.00M	240.00M	276.00M	-1.13B	471.00M	455.00M
Net Income	-16.00M	17.00M	55.00M	-981.00M	257.00M	217.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.99B	2.12B	2.18B	2.22B	2.48B	2.21B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	438.00M	453.00M	518.00M	556.00M	848.00M	651.00M
Total Debt	990.00M	972.00M	1.06B	1.07B	1.07B	1.00B
Total Liabilities	1.86B	1.92B	1.98B	2.04B	2.06B	1.99B
Stockholders Equity	128.00M	202.00M	198.00M	177.00M	426.00M	219.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	66.00M	68.00M	96.00M	102.00M	309.00M	104.00M
Operating Cash Flow	164.00M	168.00M	222.00M	240.00M	450.00M	181.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-22.00M	-61.00M	-102.00M	-122.00M	-92.00M	85.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-363.00M	-173.00M	-142.00M	-408.00M	-186.00M	-80.00M

PostNL N.V. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1.19
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:PNL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.19 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.12, above the 50-day MA of 1.06, and above the 200-day MA of 0.98, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.07 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NL:PNL.

PostNL N.V. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
INPST	66 Neutral	€6.60B	29.15	―	―	30.31%	0.33%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
PNL	54 Neutral	€601.77M	-40.90	-12.23%	6.72%	2.44%	-179.02%
RAND	46 Neutral	€5.30B	101.62	1.49%	9.24%	-3.62%	-87.74%