InPost S.A. (NL:INPST)
:INPST
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InPost S.A.
(INPST)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
€16.00
▲(55.34% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/22/26
The score is primarily held back by balance-sheet leverage and weakening margin/free-cash-flow dynamics, while technicals and earnings-call operating momentum (strong volume/revenue growth with reiterated outlook) provide support. Valuation remains a notable risk given the high P/E alongside near-term expected negative free cash flow.
Positive Factors
Volume & Revenue Growth
Sustained parcel and revenue expansion demonstrates durable demand and merchant adoption across markets. Scale growth (+32% parcels, revenue +31% Y/Y) supports unit-economics improvements, network leverage and stronger bargaining power with merchants over a 2–6 month horizon and beyond.
Negative Factors
High leverage
A materially leveraged capital structure (~3.16 D/E) heightens sensitivity to profit or cash-flow setbacks. Lev erage limits strategic flexibility, raises refinancing risk and amplifies earnings volatility from cyclical or execution shocks over a medium-term horizon.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Volume & Revenue Growth
Sustained parcel and revenue expansion demonstrates durable demand and merchant adoption across markets. Scale growth (+32% parcels, revenue +31% Y/Y) supports unit-economics improvements, network leverage and stronger bargaining power with merchants over a 2–6 month horizon and beyond.
Read all positive factors
InPost S.A. (INPST) vs. iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF (EWN)
Market Cap
€7.68B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.13M
Price to Earnings (P/E)67.3
Beta (1Y)0.86
Revenue Growth37.23%
EPS Growth-59.21%
CountryNL
Employees7,733
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustrySpecialty Business Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.97
Shares Outstanding500,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,086,418
30 Day Avg. Volume1,131,101
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.71
Price to Book (P/B)6.92
Price to Sales (P/S)1.50
P/FCF Ratio15.78
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€17.30Price Target Upside67.96% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)1.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)€17.21B
InPost S.A. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
InPost S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an out-of-home e-commerce enablement platform providing parcel locker services in Europe. It operates through four segments: APM (automated parcel machines), To-Door, Mondial Relay, and Inte...
How the Company Makes Money
InPost makes money mainly by providing parcel delivery and out-of-home parcel handling services to e-commerce merchants, marketplaces, and logistics partners. Its core revenue streams typically include: (1) fees for delivering and handling parcels...
InPost S.A. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 31, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a largely positive operational and top‑line story: strong volume (+32%) and revenue (+31%) growth, rapid APM network expansion (~95k points), healthy profitability and cash generation in Poland, and clear momentum in Eurozone brands. The main negatives are near‑term cash consumption and leverage from aggressive international expansion and the ongoing U.K. transformation (Q1 U.K. loss of PLN 49M), plus increased depreciation and capex intensity. Management emphasizes that investments are deliberate to build long‑term European scale and the U.K. trajectory is improving (March profitable), supporting confidence in the strategy.Positive Updates
Strong Volume Growth
Group handled ~360 million parcels, up 32% year‑on‑year, driven by international expansion and merchant adoption.
Negative Updates
Group Free Cash Flow and Investment Drain
Group free cash flow was negative PLN 410 million in Q1, reflecting heavy international CapEx and integration spending as the company scales.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Volume Growth
Group handled ~360 million parcels, up 32% year‑on‑year, driven by international expansion and merchant adoption.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated an unchanged 2026 outlook and said Q2 trading to date implies group volume growth in the mid‑to‑high teens y/y (Poland mid‑ to‑high single digits; international high‑20s), while full‑year free cash flow is expected to be negative as investment continues (Q1 group FCF -PLN410m; Poland FCF PLN276m, +59% y/y). Key Q1 metrics underpinning the guidance: ~360m parcels (+32%), revenue PLN3.9bn (+31%), adjusted EBITDA PLN902m (23.4% margin), CapEx PLN360m (9.3% of revenue), net debt PLN9.9bn (gross debt PLN10.5bn, cash PLN604m) and leverage 2.4x; management expects to keep funding accelerated APM roll‑out and integrations (nearly 95,000 out‑of‑home points, ~15,000 APMs added last 12 months; U.K. ramp from ~70 to ~100 APMs/week) while aiming for Poland margins to track previous guidance (around mid‑40s %).InPost S.A. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 15.60B | 14.64B | 10.92B | 8.84B | 7.06B | 4.58B |
| Gross Profit | 3.49B | 3.46B | 10.66B | 7.52B | 6.81B | 4.48B |
| EBITDA | 3.81B | 3.97B | 3.49B | 2.45B | 1.93B | 1.44B |
| Net Income | 482.53M | 549.06M | 1.25B | 647.40M | 456.40M | 491.60M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 16.94B | 17.26B | 12.89B | 9.73B | 8.76B | 7.29B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 613.30M | 952.14M | 780.50M | 567.40M | 432.80M | 490.10M |
| Total Debt | 10.47B | 10.04B | 7.76B | 6.65B | 6.70B | 5.93B |
| Total Liabilities | 13.69B | 14.09B | 10.44B | 8.44B | 8.29B | 7.30B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.26B | 3.18B | 2.46B | 1.29B | 469.00M | -6.90M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 789.40M | 1.39B | 1.56B | 1.06B | 230.70M | 164.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.54B | 2.85B | 2.96B | 2.08B | 1.35B | 1.10B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.05B | -2.31B | -1.73B | -1.27B | -1.12B | -3.20B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -354.13M | -363.02M | -1.02B | -681.40M | -285.90M | 2.45B |
InPost S.A. Technical Analysis
Positive
10.30
Price Trends
15.23
Positive
14.86
Positive
12.84
Positive
Market Momentum
0.04
Positive
61.42
Neutral
36.51
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:INPST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.31, below the 50-day MA of 15.23, and below the 200-day MA of 12.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NL:INPST.
InPost S.A. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
NL:INPST
InPost S.A.
15.36
0.86
5.93%
NL:AZRN
Azerion Group N.V
0.95
-0.46
-32.34%
NL:FAST
Fastned BV Shs Depositary Receipt 1 Shs
33.95
12.70
59.76%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.