InPost S.A. (INPST) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €6.61B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.48M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 28.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.99
• Revenue Growth: 30.31%
• EPS Growth: 0.33%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,733
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Specialty Business Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.16
• Shares Outstanding: 500,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,261,050
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,478,106
• PEG Ratio: 0.31
• Price to Book (P/B): 14.36
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.23
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.65
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €16.30
• Price Target Upside: 58.25% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: €14.50 ▲(40.78% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance and a strong, upbeat earnings-call outlook with maintained high-growth guidance, tempered by leverage and margin pressure. Technicals show near-term strength but are overbought and still below the 200-day average, while valuation is only moderate given the P/E and no dividend.

Positive Factors

Revenue & Volume Growth

Sustained high parcel and revenue growth demonstrates durable demand from e-commerce customers and expanding market penetration. Persistently rising volumes improve unit economics, support long‑term commercial contracts and recurring revenue, and underpin scalable operating leverage across the network.

Locker Network Scale

A large and growing out‑of‑home footprint creates a structural competitive advantage: higher parcel density lowers marginal last‑mile cost, increases locker utilization, enables ancillary revenue streams, and raises switching costs for merchants, supporting durable margin improvement as scale grows.

Geographic Diversification

Meaningful international revenue reduces single‑market concentration risk and provides multiple growth vectors. Cross‑border scale enables operational synergies, better bargaining with carriers/retailers, and smoother demand seasonality, strengthening long‑term revenue stability and growth optionality.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Elevated leverage increases financial vulnerability to shocks and raises refinancing risk, especially with rising interest costs. High debt limits strategic flexibility, forces prioritization between deleveraging and growth capex, and can constrain investment in network expansion or quality improvements over the medium term.

Margin Pressure

Falling gross and net margins indicate structural cost or pricing pressures that can erode long‑term profitability. If driven by higher input, labor, or integration costs, sustained compression would reduce cash conversion, limit reinvestment capacity, and weaken the company's ability to fund organic expansion from internal earnings.

Weakening Free Cash Flow

Deteriorating free cash flow growth undermines the firm's ability to self‑fund network rollouts, service debt, and pursue strategic M&A. Persistent FCF weakness increases dependence on external financing, elevates liquidity risk, and may force slower rollout or compromise investments that sustain long‑term competitive position.

InPost S.A. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

InPost S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an out-of-home e-commerce enablement platform providing parcel locker services in Europe. It operates through four segments: APM (automated parcel machines), To-Door, Mondial Relay, and International Other. The APM segment focuses on the delivery of parcels to automated parcel machines. The To-Door segment delivers parcels using door-to-door couriers. The Mondial Relay segment delivers parcels to automated parcel machines; and operates pick-up drop-off (PUDO) points in France, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, and Portugal. The International Other segment delivers parcels to automated parcel machines in the United Kingdom and Italy. The company also provides fulfilment services, including comprehensive warehousing, packaging, and logistics services to e-commerce merchants; operates self-service parcel dispatch and collection points; and e-Grocery, a delivery service for food and FMCG products through InPost Fresh app to dedicated machines and to the recipient. As of December 31, 2021, it handled 517 million parcel deliveries, and installed approximately 2.4 million lockers across its network of 16,445 APMs. The company also had approximately 38,000 integrated merchants and 8 million active mobile users on its mobile application. InPost S.A. was founded in 1999 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.

How the Company Makes Money

InPost generates revenue primarily through the operation of its parcel lockers, where it charges e-commerce retailers for the delivery and return of packages. Revenue streams include fees from retailers for delivery services, as well as fees charged to consumers for using the lockers for returns. Additionally, the company may earn income from partnerships with logistics companies and retailers that utilize its infrastructure for last-mile delivery solutions. Significant partnerships with major e-commerce platforms further enhance its revenue potential, as these collaborations drive higher volumes of packages delivered through its network.

InPost S.A. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid operating profile supported by strong revenue growth and healthy EBIT/EBITDA margins, but pressured by declining gross and net margins. High leverage (elevated debt-to-equity, low equity ratio) and weakening free cash flow growth add financial risk.

Income Statement

InPost S.A. has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 10% increase in TTM, indicating robust demand for its services. However, the gross profit margin has decreased from previous years, suggesting rising costs or pricing pressures. The net profit margin has also declined, reflecting potential challenges in maintaining profitability. Despite these issues, the company maintains a healthy EBIT and EBITDA margin, showcasing operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage which could pose financial risks. However, the return on equity remains strong, suggesting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is relatively low, highlighting potential vulnerability to financial instability.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals a decline in free cash flow growth, which could impact future investments and debt servicing. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is moderate, indicating reasonable cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio suggests adequate cash flow coverage, but there is room for improvement.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	13.61B	10.92B	8.84B	7.06B	4.58B	2.52B
Gross Profit	6.16B	10.66B	7.52B	6.81B	4.48B	2.46B
EBITDA	3.73B	3.49B	2.45B	1.93B	1.44B	735.30M
Net Income	894.20M	1.25B	647.40M	456.40M	491.60M	350.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	16.58B	12.89B	9.73B	8.76B	7.29B	2.49B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.41B	780.50M	567.40M	432.80M	490.10M	139.30M
Total Debt	10.11B	7.76B	6.65B	6.70B	5.93B	1.30B
Total Liabilities	13.48B	10.44B	8.44B	8.29B	7.30B	1.86B
Stockholders Equity	3.09B	2.46B	1.29B	469.00M	-6.90M	631.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.43B	1.56B	1.06B	230.70M	164.40M	206.10M
Operating Cash Flow	3.01B	2.96B	2.08B	1.35B	1.10B	742.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.29B	-1.73B	-1.27B	-1.12B	-3.20B	-515.90M
Financing Cash Flow	-92.60M	-1.02B	-681.40M	-285.90M	2.45B	-201.20M

InPost S.A. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 10.30
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:INPST, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 10.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.39, below the 50-day MA of 11.35, and below the 200-day MA of 12.33, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.55 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NL:INPST.

InPost S.A. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
INPST	66 Neutral	€6.61B	28.91	―	―	30.31%	0.33%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
FAST	46 Neutral	€430.60M	-12.59	―	―	48.95%	-64.87%
AZRN	41 Neutral	€126.30M	-13.22	―	―	-0.63%	74.14%