Heineken Holding NV (HEIO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €17.45B
• Dividend Yield: 3.13%
• Average Volume (3M): 198.07K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.76
• Revenue Growth: -4.84%
• EPS Growth: 76.70%
• Country: NL
• Employees: 88,497
• Sector: Consumer Goods
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Beverages - Alcoholic
• EPS (TTM): 2.18
• Shares Outstanding: 288,030,180
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 200,503
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 198,075
• PEG Ratio: 0.20
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.03
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.61
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.72
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 5.64
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €31.09B

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: €64.00 ▲(3.81% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by middling financial performance: strong cash flow and operating profitability are offset by recent revenue softness, volatile/weaker net income, and a leveraged balance sheet. Technicals are bullish but appear overbought, while valuation is neutral with only moderate dividend support.

Positive Factors

Cash generation

Consistent multi-billion free cash flow provides durable internal funding for dividend receipts upstream, debt servicing and holding-company costs. Reliable cash generation enhances financial resilience and gives management flexibility to manage leverage or sustain distributions over the next several quarters.

Operating profitability / margins

Solid gross and EBITDA margins indicate the underlying brewing business retains pricing power and cost control. Durable operating profitability cushions net results versus top-line softness, supporting the holding company's ability to receive dividends and absorb cyclical pressure without immediate structural changes.

Holding-company model / scale exposure

As a holding vehicle with a controlling stake in a global brewer, the company benefits from structural exposure to diversified geographic markets and consolidated cash flows. This reduces operating execution risk at the holding level and creates a stable channel for dividend income over time.

Negative Factors

High leverage

A debt-heavy capital structure materially limits financial flexibility and raises interest and refinancing risk. Persistent high leverage increases sensitivity to earnings swings, constrains capital allocation choices at the holding level, and can pressure dividends if operating cash flow weakens.

Revenue softness

A flat-to-declining top line points to structural demand or competitive pressures in key markets. For a holding company reliant on upstream dividends, persistent revenue weakness at the operating level reduces distributable earnings over time and undermines dividend reliability and growth prospects.

Net income volatility

Volatile net income makes forecasting dividend flows and debt coverage uncertain. Even with strong operating margins, swings in net results (driven by non-operating items or margin compression) increase the probability of payout cuts or retained earnings shortfalls, stressing long-term financial planning.

Heineken Holding NV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Heineken Holding N.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the brewing and selling of beer and cider. The company's portfolio consists of approximately 300 international, regional, local, and specialty beers and ciders. It operates in Africa, the Middle East, Europe, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific. The company was founded in 1864 and is based in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Heineken Holding N.V. is a subsidiary of L'Arche Green N.V.

How the Company Makes Money

Heineken Holding N.V. does not typically generate operating revenue from producing or selling beverages itself; instead, it functions as a holding vehicle. It makes money primarily through income and value derived from its equity stake in Heineken N.V., including (1) dividends received from Heineken N.V. when dividends are declared and paid, and (2) changes in the market value of its investment as reflected in its own share price and net asset value. Its ability to pay its own dividends and cover holding-company costs is therefore largely dependent on dividend distributions and other upstream cash flows from Heineken N.V. Information on any additional material revenue streams or external commercial partnerships at the holding-company level is null.

Heineken Holding NV Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating profitability and cash generation are supportive (positive OCF/FCF and solid gross/EBITDA margins), but revenue has been flat-to-down recently and net income has weakened and been volatile. A debt-heavy balance sheet (rising debt-to-equity) reduces financial flexibility and raises risk if earnings remain pressured.

Income Statement

Revenue has been essentially flat to down recently (2024 and 2025 declines following growth in 2021–2023), pointing to a softer top-line trajectory. Profitability remains positive on an operating basis with solid gross and EBITDA margins in 2025, but net profitability is relatively thin and volatile (strong in 2021–2022, much weaker in 2024–2025). Overall, the business shows resilient core operating earnings, but the recent step-down in net income and revenue momentum weighs on the score.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is the key constraint: total debt is high relative to equity, and the debt-to-equity level has moved higher into 2025 versus 2022–2024. Equity has been broadly stable but not growing enough to offset rising debt, limiting balance sheet flexibility. While asset scale is sizable and fairly steady, the capital structure is meaningfully debt-heavy, increasing sensitivity to earnings volatility.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear support: operating cash flow and free cash flow are consistently positive across the period, with free cash flow in the multi-billion range in 2024–2025. That said, free cash flow declined in 2025 and cash conversion versus reported profit is moderate rather than exceptional, suggesting some variability in how accounting earnings translate into cash. Overall cash flow is healthy, but not accelerating.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	28.75B	29.82B	30.36B	28.72B	21.94B
Gross Profit	10.29B	10.51B	10.70B	10.10B	8.41B
EBITDA	6.22B	5.29B	5.82B	6.67B	6.38B
Net Income	952.00M	498.00M	1.17B	3.04B	3.54B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	53.47B	54.77B	54.76B	52.41B	48.85B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.82B	2.35B	2.38B	2.77B	3.25B
Total Debt	20.45B	17.36B	18.24B	16.38B	16.87B
Total Liabilities	33.14B	32.67B	32.36B	30.49B	29.15B
Stockholders Equity	8.63B	9.55B	9.73B	9.69B	8.59B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.61B	3.04B	1.75B	2.48B	2.58B
Operating Cash Flow	5.01B	5.50B	4.43B	4.50B	4.18B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.46B	-2.44B	-3.58B	-2.29B	-2.28B
Financing Cash Flow	196.00M	-2.57B	-816.00M	-3.13B	-2.88B

Heineken Holding NV Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 61.65
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:HEIO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 61.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 67.97, below the 50-day MA of 66.12, and below the 200-day MA of 62.40, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.81 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.37 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NL:HEIO.

Heineken Holding NV Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HEIA	63 Neutral	€37.53B	8.57	9.79%	2.80%	-4.84%	73.54%
HEIO	58 Neutral	€17.45B	18.43	11.08%	3.13%	-4.84%	76.70%
Sector *	57 Neutral	$3.13B	9.23	-34.32%	3.14%	-25.56%	-353.61%