Heineken NV (HEIA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €39.01B
• Dividend Yield: 2.77%
• Average Volume (3M): 884.75K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.75
• Revenue Growth: -4.84%
• EPS Growth: 73.54%
• Country: NL
• Employees: 89,264
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 50
• Industry: Beverages - Alcoholic
• EPS (TTM): 2.08
• Shares Outstanding: 576,002,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 712,321
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 884,751
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €91.22
• Price Target Upside: 32.20% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: €74.00 ▲(7.25% Upside)

Heineken NV's stock is affected by strong financial performance, which is the most significant positive factor. However, technical analysis suggests bearish trends, and a high P/E ratio indicates potential overvaluation. The dividend yield offers some support, but overall, risks related to valuation and technical performance weigh down the stock score.

Positive Factors

Consumer Trends

Heineken's successful brand extensions and strong growth in new products like Heineken Zero and Heineken Silver highlight its ability to adapt to consumer trends.

Product Innovation

Heineken has successfully expanded its legacy brand with the launch of Heineken Zero and Heineken Silver, appealing to health-conscious consumers and broadening drinking occasions.

Negative Factors

Macroeconomic Conditions

Macroeconomic headwinds in key markets such as Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Vietnam pose risks to Heineken's overall performance.

Market Competition

Key risks include fierce competition in Europe and prolonged weak macroeconomic conditions.

Heineken NV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Heineken NV (HEIA) is a global brewing company headquartered in Amsterdam, Netherlands. Established in 1864, Heineken is one of the largest brewers in the world, operating in over 70 countries and offering a diverse portfolio of beer and cider brands. Its core products include the flagship Heineken Lager, as well as other well-known brands such as Amstel, Desperados, and Sol, alongside a variety of local and specialty beers. The company also engages in the production and marketing of non-alcoholic beverages, further expanding its reach in the beverage sector.

How the Company Makes Money

Heineken generates revenue primarily through the sale of its alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages. The company's revenue model is based on the production and distribution of beer and cider, with key revenue streams coming from retail sales, on-trade (bars and restaurants), and off-trade (supermarkets and liquor stores). Additionally, Heineken benefits from its extensive global network of breweries and distribution channels, which allows it to optimize production costs and reach a wide customer base. Strategic partnerships with retailers and distributors facilitate market penetration and brand visibility. Furthermore, Heineken engages in promotional activities and sponsorships, particularly in sports and music, enhancing brand loyalty and driving sales. Seasonal and regional product launches also contribute to revenue growth, capitalizing on local tastes and trends.

Heineken NV Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Heineken NV has strong gross profit margins and solid EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating operational efficiency. Despite a decrease in revenue and net profit margin, the company's robust equity position, significant reduction in debt, and healthy cash flow growth demonstrate financial stability.

Income Statement

Heineken NV shows strong gross profit margins at 35.2% for 2024, though net profit margin decreased to 3.3% from 7.6% in 2023. Revenue declined by 1.8% from the previous year, indicating a slight contraction in sales. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins remain solid at 11.8% and 17.7%, respectively, underscoring operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company exhibits a robust equity position with an equity ratio of 36.4% and a significant reduction in debt, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 0. The return on equity decreased to 5% from 11.5% in 2023, reflecting lower profitability but a strong balance sheet structure overall.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow grew by 73.3% in 2024, indicating healthy cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio stands at 5.6, suggesting strong cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 3.1, demonstrating efficient cash management despite a drop in net income.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	29.82B	30.36B	28.72B	22.14B	19.71B
Gross Profit	10.51B	10.70B	11.36B	8.57B	7.15B
EBITDA	5.29B	5.15B	6.41B	6.39B	2.59B
Net Income	978.00M	2.30B	2.68B	3.32B	-204.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	55.07B	56.39B	53.42B	49.82B	43.52B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.35B	2.38B	2.77B	3.25B	4.00B
Total Debt	17.05B	18.24B	16.38B	16.87B	18.20B
Total Liabilities	32.67B	33.60B	31.50B	30.12B	29.12B
Stockholders Equity	19.58B	20.06B	19.55B	17.36B	13.39B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.04B	1.75B	2.48B	2.58B	1.50B
Operating Cash Flow	5.50B	4.43B	4.50B	4.18B	3.14B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.44B	-3.58B	-2.68B	-2.29B	-1.44B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.57B	-816.00M	-2.74B	-2.87B	1.24B

Heineken NV Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 69.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:HEIA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 68.88, below the 50-day MA of 72.09, and below the 200-day MA of 72.31, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.68 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NL:HEIA.

Heineken NV Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	63 Neutral	$20.51B	14.42	-2.77%	3.14%	2.08%	-6.12%
HEIA	58 Neutral	€39.01B	21.59	9.79%	2.77%	-4.84%	73.54%
0NBD	―	€17.13B	18.06	10.30%	―	―	―