Heineken NV (NL:HEIA)
:HEIA
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Heineken NV
(HEIA)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
€71.00
▲(3.44% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:02/18/26
The score is primarily supported by durable cash generation and a strong uptrend in the share price versus key moving averages. Offsetting these positives are material recent margin compression, meaningful leverage with reduced equity in 2025, and a valuation that is not especially cheap at a 23.1 P/E despite a moderate 2.45% dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Durable cash generation
Consistent positive operating cash flow and recurring free cash flow provide a durable funding base for dividends, capex and debt repayment. Over 2–6 months this supports financial flexibility, ability to invest in brands and routes-to-market, and resilience through demand or cost cycles.
Negative Factors
Significant net margin compression
Steep decline in net margin signals weakened earnings conversion and pressure on core profitability. Persistently lower margins limit the company’s ability to self-fund growth or aggressively reduce leverage and reduce headroom for dividends or strategic investments without structural margin recovery.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Durable cash generation
Consistent positive operating cash flow and recurring free cash flow provide a durable funding base for dividends, capex and debt repayment. Over 2–6 months this supports financial flexibility, ability to invest in brands and routes-to-market, and resilience through demand or cost cycles.
Read all positive factors
Heineken NV (HEIA) vs. iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF (EWN)
Market Cap
€38.47B
Dividend Yield2.8%
Average Volume (3M)882.48K
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.2
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth-3.58%
EPS Growth94.66%
CountryNL
Employees89,264
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryBeverages - Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.71
Shares Outstanding565,430,400
10 Day Avg. Volume976,406
30 Day Avg. Volume882,477
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.22
Price to Book (P/B)2.16
Price to Sales (P/S)1.35
P/FCF Ratio14.88
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€88.30Price Target Upside28.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)5.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)€30.79B
Heineken NV Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Heineken N.V. is a prominent beverage company engaged in the worldwide production and sale of a diverse portfolio that includes beers, ciders, soft drinks, and bottled water. Its extensive range of beers features globally recognized labels such as...
How the Company Makes Money
Heineken makes money primarily by brewing and selling alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, with revenue largely generated from the sale of beer under its portfolio of brands. Its core revenue stream is net revenue from selling finished products ...
Heineken NV Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 28.75B | 29.82B | 30.36B | 28.72B | 22.14B |
| Gross Profit | 10.29B | 10.51B | 10.70B | 11.36B | 8.57B |
| EBITDA | 6.25B | 5.29B | 5.15B | 6.41B | 6.39B |
| Net Income | 1.89B | 978.00M | 2.30B | 2.68B | 3.32B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 54.96B | 55.07B | 56.39B | 53.42B | 49.82B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.77B | 2.35B | 2.38B | 2.77B | 3.25B |
| Total Debt | 20.45B | 17.36B | 18.24B | 16.38B | 16.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 34.34B | 32.67B | 33.60B | 31.50B | 30.12B |
| Stockholders Equity | 17.98B | 19.58B | 20.06B | 19.55B | 17.36B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.61B | 3.04B | 1.75B | 2.48B | 2.58B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.01B | 5.50B | 4.43B | 4.50B | 4.18B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.46B | -2.44B | -3.58B | -2.68B | -2.29B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 153.00M | -2.57B | -816.00M | -2.74B | -2.87B |
Heineken NV Technical Analysis
Positive
68.64
Price Trends
67.27
Positive
68.95
Positive
67.97
Positive
Market Momentum
0.94
Negative
57.34
Neutral
76.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:HEIA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 68.64 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 68.64, above the 50-day MA of 67.27, and above the 200-day MA of 67.97, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.94 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NL:HEIA.
Heineken NV Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
NL:HEIA
Heineken NV
69.94
-3.04
-4.16%
NL:HEIO
Heineken Holding NV
63.55
0.88
1.41%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.