ASML Holding NV (ASML) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €475.49B
• Dividend Yield: 0.73%
• Average Volume (3M): 779.56K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 50.3
• Beta (1Y): 2.24
• Revenue Growth: 22.77%
• EPS Growth: 37.62%
• Country: NL
• Employees: 43,129
• Sector: General
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Semiconductors
• EPS (TTM): 7.35
• Shares Outstanding: 388,147,670
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 839,276
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 779,560
• PEG Ratio: 1.31
• Price to Book (P/B): 18.25
• Price to Sales (P/S): 10.96
• P/FCF Ratio: 32.29
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €1,405.82
• Price Target Upside: 11.96% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 19
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 81 Outperform
• Price Target: €1,377.00 ▲(9.67% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/30/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/30/26

Score is driven primarily by very strong financial performance (high margins, profitability, and improving free cash flow) and supportive technical momentum (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). This is tempered by an expensive valuation (high P/E and low dividend yield) and some cyclicality in growth and cash conversion.

Positive Factors

EUV Technology Leadership

ASML's dominance in EUV lithography creates a durable moat: its machines are essential for leading-edge nodes. This critical technology embeds ASML deeply into customers' roadmaps, supporting long-term multi-year demand, recurring service revenue and sustained R&D investment to protect leadership.

High and Stable Profitability

Consistently high gross margins (~50%) and strong operating margins reflect durable pricing power and scale in a specialized equipment market. These margins underpin sustained cash generation, fund ongoing R&D and capital spending, and provide resilience across normal semiconductor cycles.

Strong Cash Generation & Solid Balance Sheet

Improving operating and free cash flow in 2024–2025, combined with modest debt-to-equity (roughly 0.25–0.40 historically), give ASML durable financial flexibility. Reliable cash funds R&D, capex and shareholder returns, and provides a buffer to navigate semiconductor demand cycles.

Negative Factors

Demand and Cash-Flow Cyclicality

ASML's revenue and free cash flow have shown meaningful volatility across recent years. Because system orders and revenue recognition are timing-sensitive, semiconductor capex cycles can produce pronounced swings in sales and FCF, complicating medium-term forecasting and capital allocation.

Customer Concentration

Heavy reliance on a handful of large chipmakers concentrates revenue and order-timing risk. Large customers drive the cadence of multi-billion euro orders, giving them negotiation leverage and making ASML vulnerable to shifts in a few customers' capex plans over several quarters.

Organizational Restructuring & Talent Risk

Planned streamlining of Technology and IT and potential net cuts (~1,700 roles) introduce execution risk. Disruptions to teams or loss of leadership could slow product development, impair engineering agility and temporarily weaken ASML's ability to deliver complex systems during a critical multi-year demand cycle.

ASML Holding NV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, markets, sells, and services advanced semiconductor equipment systems consisting of lithography, metrology, and inspection related systems for memory and logic chipmakers. The company provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. It also offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology solutions to measure the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI e-beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects. In addition, the company provides computational lithography and software solutions to create applications that enhance the setup of the lithography system; and mature products and services that refurbish used lithography equipment and offers associated services. It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, the Netherlands, Europe, the United States, and rest of Asia. The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001. ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.

How the Company Makes Money

ASML primarily generates revenue through the sale of its photolithography equipment, particularly its EUV and deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography systems. The company’s revenue model is built on both product sales and service agreements, which include maintenance and upgrades for its machines. A significant portion of ASML's earnings comes from long-term contracts with major semiconductor manufacturers, such as Intel, Samsung, and TSMC, which require advanced lithography technology to meet their production needs. Additionally, ASML benefits from a recurring revenue stream through the sale of spare parts and software updates for its systems. The company also invests heavily in research and development to maintain its technological edge, which is critical in the highly competitive semiconductor industry.

ASML Holding NV Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and scale with consistently high gross margins and robust operating profitability, supported by substantial operating cash flow and improving free cash flow in 2024–2025. Balance sheet leverage is modest versus equity with very strong returns on equity. Main risk is cyclicality/volatility in growth and cash conversion (softer 2024 growth and uneven cash flow in 2022–2023).

Income Statement

ASML shows very strong profitability and scale. Revenue has risen materially from 2020 to 2025 (annual), with a notable step-up into 2025, while gross profit remains consistently high (roughly ~50% in recent annual periods shown). Operating profitability is also robust (EBIT margin low-to-mid 30% range in 2021–2024), supporting strong net income. The main weakness is growth volatility—2024 revenue growth was modest versus prior years, and net margin eased from 2021 levels—suggesting results can be cyclical even with a premium margin profile.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks solid with relatively low leverage: total debt is modest versus equity (debt-to-equity roughly ~0.25–0.40 from 2020–2024) and equity has expanded meaningfully from 2022 through 2025 (annual). Returns on equity are very strong in the years provided, indicating efficient capital use. Offsetting this, total assets have grown quickly and leverage ticked up at times earlier in the period, so ongoing reinvestment and cycle swings could pressure balance-sheet flexibility versus peak conditions.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a major strength: operating cash flow and free cash flow are large and improved strongly in 2024–2025 (annual), with 2025 free cash flow notably higher than 2024. Free cash flow has generally tracked net income well (around ~0.6–0.9x in 2021–2024), supporting earnings quality. The key weakness is volatility—free cash flow declined in 2022 and 2023 and operating cash flow coverage was weaker in 2023—consistent with working-capital or timing swings that can affect year-to-year cash conversion.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	32.67B	28.26B	27.56B	21.17B	18.61B
Gross Profit	17.26B	14.08B	13.84B	10.47B	9.65B
EBITDA	12.43B	10.18B	10.02B	7.16B	7.21B
Net Income	9.61B	7.57B	7.84B	5.62B	5.88B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	50.57B	48.59B	39.96B	36.30B	30.23B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	13.32B	12.74B	7.01B	7.38B	7.59B
Total Debt	2.71B	4.69B	4.63B	4.26B	4.58B
Total Liabilities	30.95B	30.11B	26.51B	27.49B	20.09B
Stockholders Equity	19.61B	18.48B	13.45B	8.81B	10.14B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	11.08B	9.08B	3.25B	7.22B	9.91B
Operating Cash Flow	12.66B	11.17B	5.44B	8.49B	10.85B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.78B	-2.61B	-2.69B	-1.03B	-72.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-8.67B	-2.83B	-3.00B	-7.14B	-9.89B

ASML Holding NV Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1255.60
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:ASML, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1255.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1199.47, above the 50-day MA of 1086.40, and above the 200-day MA of 827.60, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 37.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 66.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.46 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NL:ASML.

ASML Holding NV Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ASML	81 Outperform	€475.49B	50.33	53.85%	0.73%	22.77%	37.62%
ASM	73 Outperform	€34.83B	44.76	21.56%	0.58%	19.12%	42.78%
BESI	63 Neutral	€15.10B	112.40	35.84%	1.65%	-5.75%	-17.63%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%