Aperam S.A. (APAM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €3.07B
• Dividend Yield: 5.41%
• Average Volume (3M): 246.24K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 357.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.16
• Revenue Growth: -2.24%
• EPS Growth: -102.76%
• Country: NL
• Employees: 12,007
• Sector: General
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): 0.40
• Shares Outstanding: 73,184,570
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 264,212
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 246,236
• PEG Ratio: -2.94
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.80
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.42
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.94
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €42.80
• Price Target Upside: -0.74% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.27
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €6.72B

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: €42.00 ▼(-2.60% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/08/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/08/26

The score is held back primarily by weak current financial performance (near break-even profitability) and very expensive earnings-based valuation (P/E ~333.6). This is partially offset by strong technical momentum (price well above key moving averages with positive MACD) and a supportive dividend yield (~4.46%), alongside manageable leverage and decent 2025 free cash flow.

Positive Factors

Vertical integration

Owning steps from raw materials to finished stainless and specialty steels gives durable cost and quality control advantages. This reduces supply disruptions, supports long-term OEM contracts, and allows margin management when raw-material cycles shift, sustaining competitive positioning over months.

Diversified end markets

Exposure to multiple end markets (automotive, construction, energy, consumer goods) and product lines (stainless, electrical, specialty alloys) smooths demand volatility. Structural diversification helps revenue resilience and supports recovery in some segments even if others remain weak over the medium term.

Solid cash generation; manageable leverage

Despite weak reported earnings, meaningful operating cash flow (~€422M) and free cash flow (~€285M) plus moderate leverage (debt/equity ~0.41) provide financial flexibility. This supports capex, dividend policy and cyclical resilience across a 2–6 month horizon and funds strategic investments.

Negative Factors

Revenue decline and near-breakeven profits

A multi-year revenue drop and margins near zero indicate structural demand weakness or pricing pressure in key product lines. Near-breakeven operating profitability limits reinvestment capacity and raises dependence on cash generation and balance-sheet strength to sustain operations over the medium term.

High earnings cyclicality

Large swings from strong margins in 2021–22 to near-zero margins in 2025 show the business is highly cyclical. This structural volatility complicates planning, capital allocation, and return expectations, increasing long-term execution risk through commodity and end-market cycles.

Rising leverage and weak returns

An uptick in leverage alongside collapsing ROE signals weakening capital efficiency. Higher leverage reduces financial flexibility during downturns and low returns erode shareholder reinvestment potential, pressuring long-term ability to fund growth or sustain dividends if cash generation falters.

Aperam S.A. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aperam S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of stainless and specialty steel products worldwide. It operates through three segments: Stainless & Electrical Steel; Services & Solutions; and Alloys & Specialties. The company offers range of stainless steel products, including grain oriented and non-grain oriented electrical steel products, and specialty alloys. It is also involved in the distribution of its products; and the provision of transformation services that include value added and customized steel solutions. In addition, the company designs, produces, and transforms various specialty alloys and other specific stainless steels in forms, such as bars, semis, cold-rolled strips, wire and wire rods, and plates in a range on grades. It serves customers in aerospace, automotive, catering, construction, household appliances, electrical engineering, industrial processes, medical, and oil and gas industries. The company distributes its products through a network of service centers, transformation facilities, and sales offices. Aperam S.A. was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Luxembourg City, Luxembourg.

How the Company Makes Money

Aperam generates revenue primarily through the sale of its stainless and specialty steel products. The company operates a vertically integrated model, which allows it to control the production process from raw materials to finished products. Key revenue streams include the sale of stainless steel flat products, which are a significant portion of its business, as well as long products and electrical steel. Additionally, Aperam benefits from strategic partnerships and contracts with major clients in various sectors, which provide a steady demand for its products. Fluctuations in raw material prices, particularly nickel and chromium, also play a crucial role in the company's profitability, as these metals are essential for stainless steel production. The company’s focus on sustainability and innovation further enhances its market position, potentially leading to new revenue opportunities.

Aperam S.A. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Earnings are the key weakness: revenue has fallen since 2022 and 2025 profitability is near break-even (net margin ~0.15%, EBIT margin ~0.26%), indicating a sharp cyclical downturn. Offsetting factors are a still-manageable balance sheet (debt-to-equity ~0.41) and comparatively solid 2025 cash generation (operating cash flow ~€422M; free cash flow ~€285M), but overall performance remains pressured and volatile.

Income Statement

Profitability has deteriorated sharply versus prior years. Revenue has trended down since 2022 (2025: ~€6.08B vs 2022: ~€8.16B), and 2025 profitability is near break-even (net margin ~0.15%, EBIT margin ~0.26%). This follows much stronger earnings power in 2021–2022 (high single- to double-digit margins), highlighting meaningful cyclicality. A positive is that EBITDA remains positive in 2025 (~4.5% margin), but the overall earnings profile looks pressured and volatile.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks moderately conservative with equity exceeding debt and leverage generally manageable. Debt-to-equity increased to ~0.41 in 2025 from ~0.23 in 2024, but remains at a level that is not excessive for a cyclical steel business. The key weakness is returns: return on equity fell to ~0.3% in 2025 versus ~6.9% in 2024 and much higher levels in 2021–2022, reflecting weaker profitability rather than balance-sheet strain.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative bright spot in 2025 with operating cash flow of ~€422M and free cash flow of ~€285M, improving versus 2024 despite weaker reported earnings. However, free cash flow growth is negative in 2025, and cash conversion has been inconsistent over time. The cash flow profile appears resilient, but volatility and the broader earnings downturn temper the score.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.08B	6.25B	6.59B	8.16B	5.10B
Gross Profit	6.08B	408.00M	379.00M	1.18B	1.23B
EBITDA	275.00M	354.00M	366.00M	959.00M	1.20B
Net Income	9.00M	231.00M	203.00M	625.00M	968.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.17B	5.84B	6.21B	6.26B	5.91B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	325.00M	216.00M	443.00M	457.00M	524.00M
Total Debt	1.30B	760.00M	934.00M	925.00M	990.00M
Total Liabilities	1.97B	2.47B	2.76B	2.87B	2.96B
Stockholders Equity	3.19B	3.35B	3.44B	3.38B	2.94B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	285.00M	114.00M	170.00M	346.00M	398.00M
Operating Cash Flow	422.00M	280.00M	471.00M	642.00M	550.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-589.00M	-155.00M	-303.00M	-297.00M	-183.00M
Financing Cash Flow	279.00M	-336.00M	-152.00M	-419.00M	-197.00M

Aperam S.A. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 43.12
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:APAM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 43.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.58, above the 50-day MA of 37.69, and above the 200-day MA of 30.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.85 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NL:APAM.

Aperam S.A. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MT	63 Neutral	€40.57B	15.16	4.81%	1.24%	-5.35%	―
Sector *	55 Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
APAM	53 Neutral	€3.07B	357.07	-0.24%	5.41%	-2.24%	-102.76%
AMG	49 Neutral	€1.02B	-72.88	6.84%	1.46%	9.94%	―
OCI	47 Neutral	€748.33M	―	―	229.25%	―	―