ArcelorMittal (MT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €34.20B
• Dividend Yield: 1.24%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.19M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.12
• Revenue Growth: -5.35%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: NL
• Employees: 125,416
• Sector: General
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): 0.42
• Shares Outstanding: 775,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,532,970
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,186,907
• PEG Ratio: 0.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.37
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.29
• P/FCF Ratio: 40.94
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €46.31
• Price Target Upside: -3.10% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: €52.00 ▲(8.81% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid operating profitability and a strong balance sheet, offset by weak cash conversion and free cash flow trends. Technicals are bullish but stretched, adding some near-term risk, while valuation is reasonable but not strongly supported by yield.

Positive Factors

Global scale & vertical integration

ArcelorMittal's large global footprint and integrated steel-plus-mining model provide durable demand diversification and supply security. Vertical integration reduces exposure to raw-material cost shocks, supports stable input supply, and sustains long-term competitiveness across cyclical markets.

Conservative leverage

A 0.25 debt-to-equity ratio indicates conservative financial leverage, giving ArcelorMittal flexibility to fund capex, weather downturns, and pursue strategic investments without excessive refinancing risk, strengthening long-term balance-sheet resilience.

High gross margins

A 76% gross margin and stable operating margins point to efficient production and cost control. Structurally higher margins provide a buffer against commodity price swings, support reinvestment and product competitiveness, and bolster long-term profitability sustainability.

Negative Factors

Revenue decline & volatility

A negative revenue growth rate and noted top-line volatility weaken scale advantages and make future margin and profit predictability harder. Persistent revenue contraction can limit reinvestment capability and increase sensitivity to cyclical end-market downturns.

Weak cash conversion

A 0.21 OCF-to-net-income ratio and falling free cash flow growth signal poor cash conversion. This constrains funding for capex, debt reduction, and shareholder returns, reducing financial flexibility and increasing vulnerability during prolonged industry weakness.

Low returns & equity decline

A modest ROE around 4.8% and a declining shareholders' equity trend suggest limited capital efficiency and potential erosion of shareholder value. Without improvement in returns or capital allocation, long-term shareholder gains may be constrained.

ArcelorMittal Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ArcelorMittal S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as integrated steel and mining companies in Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Africa. Its principal steel products include semi-finished flat products, including slabs; finished flat products comprising plates, hot- and cold-rolled coils and sheets, hot-dipped and electro-galvanized coils and sheets, tinplate, and color coated coils and sheets; semi-finished long products, which includes blooms and billets; finished long products, including bars, wire-rods, structural sections, rails, sheet piles, and wire-products; and seamless and welded pipes and tubes. The company's principal mining products comprise iron ore lumps, fines, concentrates, pellets, and sinter feeds; and coking and thermal coal, and pulverized coal injections. It sells its products to various customers in the automotive, appliance, engineering, construction, energy, and machinery industries through a centralized marketing organization, as well as distributors. The company has iron ore mining activities in Brazil, Bosnia, Canada, Kazakhstan, Liberia, Mexico, South Africa, and Ukraine; and coal mining activities in Kazakhstan. ArcelorMittal S.A. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Luxembourg City, Luxembourg.

How the Company Makes Money

ArcelorMittal generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of steel products. Its revenue model is built on selling a diverse array of steel products to various industries, including automotive, construction, and energy. The company benefits from economies of scale due to its large production capacity and global presence. Key revenue streams include flat steel products, long steel products, and mining operations, which provide iron ore and metallurgical coal. Additionally, ArcelorMittal has strategic partnerships with various companies in the automotive and construction sectors, enhancing its market position and ensuring a steady demand for its products. Market dynamics, such as fluctuations in steel prices and demand across different sectors, significantly influence its profitability.

ArcelorMittal Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability is strong (76% gross margin TTM) and leverage is conservative (debt-to-equity 0.25). However, revenue has been volatile with prior declines, and cash generation is a key weakness (operating cash flow to net income 0.21 TTM and a significant drop in free cash flow growth TTM).

Income Statement

ArcelorMittal's income statement shows a strong gross profit margin of 76% TTM, indicating efficient production processes. The net profit margin has improved to 4.11% TTM, reflecting better cost management. However, revenue growth has been volatile, with a significant decline in recent years, though it shows a positive trend in the latest TTM data. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, suggesting consistent operational performance.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is solid with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.25 TTM, indicating prudent financial leverage. Return on equity is modest at 4.80% TTM, suggesting room for improvement in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is healthy, reflecting a strong capital structure. However, the decline in stockholders' equity over recent periods could be a concern if it continues.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with a significant drop in free cash flow growth TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.21 TTM, indicating potential issues in converting earnings into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is relatively better, but overall cash flow management needs attention to ensure liquidity and support future investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	61.09B	62.44B	68.28B	79.84B	76.57B	53.27B
Gross Profit	46.81B	5.79B	4.74B	12.54B	19.23B	4.13B
EBITDA	5.03B	6.06B	4.65B	14.24B	20.91B	5.26B
Net Income	2.58B	1.34B	919.00M	9.30B	20.48B	-578.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	98.77B	89.39B	93.92B	94.55B	90.51B	82.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.73B	6.40B	7.69B	9.41B	4.37B	5.96B
Total Debt	14.87B	11.56B	10.68B	11.65B	8.40B	12.32B
Total Liabilities	42.09B	38.10B	37.85B	38.96B	39.17B	41.81B
Stockholders Equity	54.60B	49.22B	53.96B	53.15B	49.11B	38.28B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	58.00M	447.00M	3.03B	6.74B	6.90B	1.64B
Operating Cash Flow	4.28B	4.85B	7.64B	10.20B	9.90B	4.08B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.42B	-4.99B	-5.85B	-4.48B	-340.00M	-2.01B
Financing Cash Flow	634.00M	-680.00M	-3.67B	-477.00M	-10.90B	-1.50B

ArcelorMittal Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 47.79
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:MT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 47.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.40, above the 50-day MA of 39.95, and above the 200-day MA of 31.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.06 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NL:MT.

ArcelorMittal Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MT	66 Neutral	€34.20B	15.40	4.81%	1.24%	-5.35%	―
APAM	65 Neutral	€2.60B	-329.05	-0.24%	5.41%	-2.24%	-102.76%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
AMG	53 Neutral	€1.08B	35.37	6.84%	1.46%	9.94%	―