ArcelorMittal (MT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €41.61B
• Dividend Yield: 1.24%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.19M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.11
• Revenue Growth: -5.35%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: NL
• Employees: 125,416
• Sector: General
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): 0.19
• Shares Outstanding: 775,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,532,970
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,186,907
• PEG Ratio: 0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.55
• P/FCF Ratio: 71.47
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €50.10
• Price Target Upside: -8.54% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: €55.00 ▲(0.40% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/07/26

The score is driven mainly by solid financial footing (notably conservative leverage) offset by cyclical earnings and inconsistent recent free cash flow. Technicals are supportive due to a strong uptrend, but overbought signals temper the outlook. Valuation is neutral-to-slightly supportive with a reasonable P/E but a low yield.

Positive Factors

Vertical integration (steel + mining)

Owning upstream mining assets provides durable raw-material security and cost control across cycles. Long-term access to iron ore and coal insulates production against spot raw-material volatility and supports margin resilience and strategic pricing flexibility across global steel markets.

Conservative balance sheet / low leverage

Relatively low leverage versus peers provides financial flexibility through steel cycles, enabling capital allocation for capex, project funding and dividends without excessive refinancing risk. A sound balance sheet improves resilience to demand shocks and supports long-term strategic investments.

Large Liberia expansion increases long-term ore supply

The Liberia MDA extension and $1.8bn concentrator/rail/port investments substantially raise low-cost iron-ore output and secure long-term feedstock. This enhances upstream earnings potential, creates scale advantages, and provides optionality to expand to 30M tpa, supporting sustained EBITDA generation.

Negative Factors

Revenue and margin cyclicality

Steel demand and prices remain cyclical, producing volatile revenue and margins. This structural sensitivity limits earnings predictability and planning horizon for returns, making long-term cashflows and investment returns heavily dependent on macro cycles beyond company control.

Inconsistent free cash flow conversion

Weak and uneven conversion of earnings into free cash flow constrains durable capital returns and organic reinvestment. Over the medium term this can limit buybacks, dividend growth or rapid deleveraging, and raises dependence on operational improvements to fund strategic projects.

Material legal and regulatory disputes in Europe

Significant litigation and arbitration in Italy introduce multi-year legal, financial and reputational risk. Potential liabilities, regulatory uncertainty and management distraction could impair European operations, capital allocation and returns, weighing on long-term structural performance.

ArcelorMittal Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ArcelorMittal S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as integrated steel and mining companies in Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Africa. Its principal steel products include semi-finished flat products, including slabs; finished flat products comprising plates, hot- and cold-rolled coils and sheets, hot-dipped and electro-galvanized coils and sheets, tinplate, and color coated coils and sheets; semi-finished long products, which includes blooms and billets; finished long products, including bars, wire-rods, structural sections, rails, sheet piles, and wire-products; and seamless and welded pipes and tubes. The company's principal mining products comprise iron ore lumps, fines, concentrates, pellets, and sinter feeds; and coking and thermal coal, and pulverized coal injections. It sells its products to various customers in the automotive, appliance, engineering, construction, energy, and machinery industries through a centralized marketing organization, as well as distributors. The company has iron ore mining activities in Brazil, Bosnia, Canada, Kazakhstan, Liberia, Mexico, South Africa, and Ukraine; and coal mining activities in Kazakhstan. ArcelorMittal S.A. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Luxembourg City, Luxembourg.

How the Company Makes Money

ArcelorMittal generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of steel products. Its revenue model is built on selling a diverse array of steel products to various industries, including automotive, construction, and energy. The company benefits from economies of scale due to its large production capacity and global presence. Key revenue streams include flat steel products, long steel products, and mining operations, which provide iron ore and metallurgical coal. Additionally, ArcelorMittal has strategic partnerships with various companies in the automotive and construction sectors, enhancing its market position and ensuring a steady demand for its products. Market dynamics, such as fluctuations in steel prices and demand across different sectors, significantly influence its profitability.

ArcelorMittal Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are solid but cyclical: a conservative balance sheet (strongest area) supports resilience, while profitability and revenue have been volatile and free cash flow has been inconsistent in the last two years despite positive operating cash flow.

Income Statement

Revenue has been volatile (down in 2023 and 2024, modest rebound in 2025), consistent with a cyclical steel backdrop. Profitability has recovered meaningfully from the 2020 loss, with 2025 showing improved net earnings and solid EBITDA profitability, but margins remain well below the 2021–2022 peak levels, highlighting continued earnings sensitivity to pricing and demand cycles.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks conservative for the sector, with debt-to-equity staying roughly in the ~0.20–0.25 range in recent years and equity remaining sizable relative to the asset base. Returns on equity improved in 2025 versus 2023–2024, but are still far below the very strong 2021–2022 period, indicating the balance sheet is sound while profitability is more cycle-dependent.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has remained positive across the period, supporting resilience through the cycle. However, free cash flow is inconsistent—very strong in 2021–2022, sharply lower in 2024, and still relatively modest in 2025—resulting in weak conversion of accounting earnings into free cash flow in the last two years, which can limit flexibility for buybacks, dividends, or rapid deleveraging.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	61.09B	63.85B	62.44B	68.28B	79.84B	76.57B
Gross Profit	46.81B	0.00	5.79B	4.74B	12.54B	19.23B
EBITDA	5.03B	6.46B	6.06B	4.65B	14.24B	20.91B
Net Income	2.58B	3.28B	1.34B	919.00M	9.30B	20.48B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	98.77B	97.71B	89.39B	93.92B	94.55B	90.51B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.73B	5.48B	6.40B	7.69B	9.41B	4.37B
Total Debt	14.87B	13.41B	11.56B	10.68B	11.65B	8.40B
Total Liabilities	42.09B	41.17B	38.10B	37.85B	38.96B	39.17B
Stockholders Equity	54.60B	54.47B	49.22B	53.96B	53.15B	49.11B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	58.00M	490.20M	447.00M	3.03B	6.74B	6.90B
Operating Cash Flow	4.28B	5.00B	4.85B	7.64B	10.20B	9.90B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.42B	-4.74B	-4.99B	-5.85B	-4.48B	-340.00M
Financing Cash Flow	634.00M	-1.84B	-680.00M	-3.67B	-477.00M	-10.90B

ArcelorMittal Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 54.78
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:MT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 54.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.48, above the 50-day MA of 44.32, and above the 200-day MA of 33.55, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NL:MT.

ArcelorMittal Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MT	63 Neutral	€41.61B	15.28	4.81%	1.24%	-5.35%	―
Sector *	55 Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
AMG	53 Neutral	€1.14B	37.30	6.84%	1.46%	9.94%	―
APAM	53 Neutral	€3.01B	339.87	-0.24%	5.41%	-2.24%	-102.76%