ArcelorMittal (MT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €31.25B
• Dividend Yield: 1.24%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.19M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.21
• Revenue Growth: -5.35%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: NL
• Employees: 125,416
• Sector: General
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): 0.20
• Shares Outstanding: 775,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,532,970
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,186,907
• PEG Ratio: 0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.57
• P/FCF Ratio: 71.47
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €50.87
• Price Target Upside: 18.97% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.82
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €67.06B

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: €45.00 ▲(5.24% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/07/26

The score is driven mainly by solid financial footing (notably conservative leverage) offset by cyclical earnings and inconsistent recent free cash flow. Technicals are supportive due to a strong uptrend, but overbought signals temper the outlook. Valuation is neutral-to-slightly supportive with a reasonable P/E but a low yield.

Positive Factors

Conservative Balance Sheet

Low leverage and a sizable equity base give ArcelorMittal durable financial flexibility across the steel cycle. Conservative debt levels reduce refinancing and liquidity risk, enabling continued capex, mining support, and strategic responses to downturns without forcing distress sales or deep cuts.

Vertical Integration (Steel + Mining)

Ownership of upstream iron ore (and some coal) secures feedstock, lowers input cost exposure, and smooths margin swings versus pure-play mills. This integration supports more predictable operations, better raw-material economics and competitive advantage in procurement over multi-quarter horizons.

Diverse Products and Value-Added Capability

A broad product mix and finishing/value-added services reduce dependence on any single end market or commodity grade. Serving automotive, construction and industrial customers supports resilience as different sectors offset each other, and value-added steels typically sustain higher margins over time.

Negative Factors

Cyclical Revenue and Margins

Steel demand and pricing cycles cause persistent top-line and margin volatility, constraining earnings predictability. Even with recent recovery, margins remain below prior peaks, limiting long-term profit stability and complicating capital allocation and forecasting over several quarters.

Inconsistent Free Cash Flow

Weak and inconsistent free cash flow conversion reduces the firm's ability to fund buybacks, dividends, rapid deleveraging or opportunistic investments. This constrains strategic flexibility and increases reliance on operating improvements or asset sales to restore durable cash generation.

Weak Recent Revenue Trend

Negative recent revenue growth indicates demand softness or market share pressure that could persist cyclically. Falling sales erode operating leverage and make sustaining margins, investment plans and long-term recovery less certain across the next several quarters.

ArcelorMittal Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ArcelorMittal S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as integrated steel and mining companies in Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Africa. Its principal steel products include semi-finished flat products, including slabs; finished flat products comprising plates, hot- and cold-rolled coils and sheets, hot-dipped and electro-galvanized coils and sheets, tinplate, and color coated coils and sheets; semi-finished long products, which includes blooms and billets; finished long products, including bars, wire-rods, structural sections, rails, sheet piles, and wire-products; and seamless and welded pipes and tubes. The company's principal mining products comprise iron ore lumps, fines, concentrates, pellets, and sinter feeds; and coking and thermal coal, and pulverized coal injections. It sells its products to various customers in the automotive, appliance, engineering, construction, energy, and machinery industries through a centralized marketing organization, as well as distributors. The company has iron ore mining activities in Brazil, Bosnia, Canada, Kazakhstan, Liberia, Mexico, South Africa, and Ukraine; and coal mining activities in Kazakhstan. ArcelorMittal S.A. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Luxembourg City, Luxembourg.

How the Company Makes Money

ArcelorMittal primarily makes money by selling steel products, with revenue largely determined by shipment volumes, product mix (commodity versus higher value-added steels), and prevailing steel price levels in its served markets. Key revenue streams include: (1) Flat steel products (e.g., hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled, galvanized, and other coated steels) sold to automotive OEMs and suppliers, construction-related customers, and manufacturers; (2) Long steel products (e.g., rebar, wire rod, sections) used mainly in construction and infrastructure; (3) Tubular and other steel solutions, depending on regional operations and demand from energy and industrial customers; and (4) Mining revenues from the sale of iron ore (and in certain operations, metallurgical coal), both to ArcelorMittal’s own steelmaking operations (internal consumption that reduces external raw-material purchases) and, where applicable, to external customers. In addition to primary steel sales, the company can earn from downstream processing and value-added services (such as finishing, coating, customized grades, and supply-chain services) that typically command higher margins than basic steel. Profitability is influenced by the spread between steel selling prices and input costs (iron ore, coal, scrap, energy, freight), plant utilization, and product differentiation—particularly in advanced high-strength steels and other specialized grades for automotive and industrial applications. Significant factors affecting earnings include global and regional steel demand cycles, trade measures and tariffs, raw-material price volatility, energy costs, and operational performance across its steel and mining asset base. If specific partnership arrangements are required: null.

ArcelorMittal Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are solid but cyclical: a conservative balance sheet (strongest area) supports resilience, while profitability and revenue have been volatile and free cash flow has been inconsistent in the last two years despite positive operating cash flow.

Income Statement

Revenue has been volatile (down in 2023 and 2024, modest rebound in 2025), consistent with a cyclical steel backdrop. Profitability has recovered meaningfully from the 2020 loss, with 2025 showing improved net earnings and solid EBITDA profitability, but margins remain well below the 2021–2022 peak levels, highlighting continued earnings sensitivity to pricing and demand cycles.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks conservative for the sector, with debt-to-equity staying roughly in the ~0.20–0.25 range in recent years and equity remaining sizable relative to the asset base. Returns on equity improved in 2025 versus 2023–2024, but are still far below the very strong 2021–2022 period, indicating the balance sheet is sound while profitability is more cycle-dependent.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has remained positive across the period, supporting resilience through the cycle. However, free cash flow is inconsistent—very strong in 2021–2022, sharply lower in 2024, and still relatively modest in 2025—resulting in weak conversion of accounting earnings into free cash flow in the last two years, which can limit flexibility for buybacks, dividends, or rapid deleveraging.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	61.35B	62.44B	68.28B	79.84B	76.57B
Gross Profit	4.38B	5.79B	4.74B	12.54B	19.23B
EBITDA	5.12B	6.06B	4.65B	14.24B	20.91B
Net Income	3.28B	1.34B	919.00M	9.30B	20.48B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	97.71B	89.39B	93.92B	94.55B	90.51B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.48B	6.40B	7.69B	9.41B	4.37B
Total Debt	13.41B	11.56B	10.68B	11.65B	8.40B
Total Liabilities	41.17B	38.10B	37.85B	38.96B	39.17B
Stockholders Equity	54.47B	49.22B	53.96B	53.15B	49.11B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	490.20M	447.00M	3.03B	6.74B	6.90B
Operating Cash Flow	5.00B	4.85B	7.64B	10.20B	9.90B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.74B	-4.99B	-5.85B	-4.48B	-340.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.84B	-680.00M	-3.67B	-477.00M	-10.90B

ArcelorMittal Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 42.76
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:MT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 42.76 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.22, below the 50-day MA of 48.53, and above the 200-day MA of 35.75, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.61 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NL:MT.

ArcelorMittal Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MT	63 Neutral	€31.25B	10.68	6.11%	1.24%	-5.35%	―
Sector *	55 Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
AMG	49 Neutral	€1.00B	-55.26	6.84%	1.46%	9.94%	―
APAM	46 Neutral	€2.34B	283.16	-0.24%	5.41%	-2.24%	-102.76%