nCino (NCNO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.71B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.75M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.80
• Revenue Growth: 13.45%
• EPS Growth: 12.86%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,833
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 46
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): -0.33
• Shares Outstanding: 116,449,936
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,628,238
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,745,002
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.31
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 142.80
• P/FCF Ratio: 166.80
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $25.75
• Price Target Upside: 12.94% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

nCino's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its strong revenue growth and solid balance sheet. However, persistent profitability challenges and bearish technical indicators weigh down the score. Positive strategic initiatives and leadership changes are promising, but the company must overcome execution challenges to improve its outlook.

Positive Factors

Growth Strategy

NCino's growth strategy and commitment to becoming a Rule-of-40 business are encouraging.

Market Potential

Analyst expresses increased confidence in nCino's potential to be a long-term share gainer in the financial institution end-market.

Product Offering

NCino's suite of new products and a new pricing model could potentially catalyze a reacceleration in growth.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

Operating cash flow was significantly below estimates, driven by acquisition-related costs, incremental interest expense, and timing of working capital shifts.

Guidance and Bookings

Disappointing fiscal 2026 guidance appears to be primarily driven by softer-than-expected bookings in fiscal 2025.

Sales Execution

Challenged sales execution, longer than anticipated acquisition integration, and elevated interest rates are some of the reasons affecting the outlook.

nCino Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

nCino, Inc., a software-as-a-service company, provides cloud-based software applications to financial institutions in the United States and internationally. Its nCino Bank Operating System, a tenant cloud platform, which digitizes, automates, and streamlines complex processes and workflow; and utilizes data analytics and artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) to enable banks and credit unions to onboard new clients, make loans and manage the entire loan life cycle, open deposit and other accounts, and manage regulatory compliance. The company's nCino IQ, an application suite that utilizes data analytics and AI/ML to provide its customers with automation and insights into their operations, such as tools for analyzing, measuring, and managing credit risk, as well as to enhance their ability to comply with regulatory requirements. It also offers SimpleNexus, a suite of products that enables loan officers, borrowers, real estate agents, settlement agents, and others to engage in the homeownership process from internet-enabled device. The company serves financial institution customers, including global financial institutions, enterprise banks, regional banks, community banks, credit unions, new market entrants, and independent mortgage banks through sales team comprising business development representatives, account executives, field sales engineers, and customer success managers. nCino, Inc. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Wilmington, North Carolina.

How the Company Makes Money

nCino generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for its cloud-based software solutions, which are typically sold under multi-year contracts to financial institutions. The company charges its clients based on the number of users or the volume of transactions processed through its platform. Additionally, nCino offers professional services, including implementation, training, and consulting, which contribute to its revenue. Strategic partnerships with core banking system providers and other fintech companies also play a role in expanding its market reach and enhancing its platform capabilities.

nCino Financial Statement Overview

Summary

nCino shows strong revenue growth and a solid balance sheet, with significant equity backing and low debt levels. However, persistent losses and reliance on external financing indicate operational and profitability challenges. Continued focus on achieving profitability and sustainable cash flow will be crucial for long-term success.

Income Statement

nCino has shown impressive revenue growth with a CAGR of approximately 31% from 2020 to 2025. The gross profit margin remains strong, averaging above 60%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the company is still unprofitable with negative net income and EBIT margins, which reflects ongoing operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is strong with a high equity ratio, showing a stable financial structure and low leverage, as evidenced by a decreasing debt-to-equity ratio. However, the company has yet to achieve positive return on equity due to its current loss-making position.

Cash Flow

Despite operating cash flow being positive and growing, the free cash flow growth is inconsistent, reflecting potential volatility in cash generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, but the dependency on external financing is evident.

Breakdown
Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement		Total Revenue
540.66M	476.54M	273.87M	204.29M	204.29M
	Gross Profit
324.79M	285.07M	162.45M	116.16M	116.16M
	EBIT
-18.13M	-39.51M	-71.36M	-42.61M	-42.61M
	EBITDA
9.55M	7.46M	-56.47M	-59.90M	-33.12M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-37.88M	-42.35M	-50.12M	-41.27M	-40.54M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
120.93M	112.08M	88.01M	371.43M	371.43M
	Total Assets
1.61B	1.34B	1.30B	563.40M	563.40M
	Total Debt
17.97M	74.23M	48.84M	16.26M	16.26M
	Net Debt
-102.96M	-37.86M	-39.17M	-355.16M	-355.16M
	Total Liabilities
512.78M	287.83M	230.51M	134.43M	134.43M
	Stockholders Equity
1.09B	1.05B	1.07B	425.18M	425.18M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
53.38M	53.41M	-24.69M	4.88M	4.88M
	Operating Cash Flow
55.20M	57.28M	-19.23M	9.22M	9.22M
	Investing Cash Flow
-219.18M	-6.33M	-278.49M	-4.34M	-4.34M
	Financing Cash Flow
170.48M	-21.11M	15.92M	274.12M	274.12M

nCino Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 22.80
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCNO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 22.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.16, below the 50-day MA of 27.94, and below the 200-day MA of 32.74, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NCNO.

nCino Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
YOU	78 Outperform	$3.41B	16.45	78.61%	1.75%	25.57%	476.09%
ALKT	68 Neutral	$2.59B	―	-11.98%	―	26.06%	38.19%
SEMR	68 Neutral	$1.36B	175.05	3.46%	―	22.47%	872.41%
Sector *	59 Neutral	$9.97B	10.09	-6.54%	3.08%	7.41%	-11.60%
NCNO	58 Neutral	$2.71B	―	-3.54%	―	13.45%	12.86%
QTWO	55 Neutral	$4.55B	―	-7.98%	―	11.50%	42.50%
NRDY	48 Neutral	$277.32M	―	-92.62%	―	-1.64%	9.99%

nCino Corporate Events

nCino Reports Strong Revenue Growth and New CEO Appointment

On April 1, 2025, nCino reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025, showing significant growth in revenues and subscription services. Despite a GAAP net loss, the company achieved a 14% increase in total revenues for the quarter and a 13% increase for the fiscal year, with subscription revenues growing by 16% and 15% respectively. The company also announced a $100 million stock repurchase program, reflecting confidence in its strategy to generate stockholder value. Recent business highlights include the appointment of Sean Desmond as CEO, the acquisition of Sandbox Banking to enhance data connectivity, and new partnerships with major banks in the U.S. and the Czech Republic.

nCino Expands Board with New Strategic Appointment

On February 10, 2025, nCino announced a cooperation agreement with HMI Capital, resulting in the appointment of Justin Nyweide to its Board of Directors and the Audit Committee. This strategic move, effective immediately, expands nCino’s board to ten members and aligns with the company’s growth objectives by leveraging Nyweide’s extensive investment expertise. The agreement with HMI Capital, a major shareholder, includes provisions for voting and standstill arrangements, potentially impacting nCino’s governance and strategic direction.

nCino Announces New CEO and Strategic Leadership Change

On February 1, 2025, Sean Desmond was appointed as the new CEO of nCino, Inc., succeeding Pierre Naudé, who transitioned to the role of Executive Chairman. This leadership change is expected to drive nCino’s next phase of growth and innovation, leveraging Desmond’s expertise in scaling large organizations and his forward-thinking approach to product innovation. Desmond, who has been with nCino since 2013, will focus on delivering data-driven experiences through the company’s intelligent platform, aiming for global market growth. The company reaffirmed its fiscal guidance for 2025, indicating stability and continued strategic direction under the new leadership.