nCino (NCNO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.74B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.47M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 116.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.45
• Revenue Growth: 12.14%
• EPS Growth: -19.29%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,833
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 0.31
• Shares Outstanding: 114,684,970
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,123,120
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,471,442
• PEG Ratio: 7.86
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.60
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.24
• P/FCF Ratio: 73.99
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.11
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.31
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.51
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 42.45
• 1Y Price Target: $30.50
• Price Target Upside: 100.26% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.03
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $639.26M

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: $17.50 ▲(14.90% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/04/26

The score is held back primarily by weak technicals (clear downtrend) and ongoing GAAP profitability challenges despite improving cash generation and a strong balance sheet. Offsetting these, the latest earnings call was notably positive on revenue growth, margin expansion, and AI-driven product momentum, supporting a mid-range overall rating.

Positive Factors

Recurring SaaS Revenue

nCino's core SaaS subscription base grew 11% YoY, reflecting recurring contractual revenue and predictable cash flow. A rising share of ACV is converting to platform pricing, enabling higher visibility into future revenue, stronger embedded upsell potential, and durable customer lifetime value dynamics.

High Gross Margins

Sustained ~60% gross margins are consistent with scalable cloud software economics and provide room for operating leverage. Combined with recent non‑GAAP operating margin expansion, stable gross margins support durable profitability improvements as revenue scales and sales/engineering efficiency improves.

Strong Balance Sheet & Cash Generation

Positive operating cash flow and FCF, alongside a very low debt-to-equity ratio, give nCino financial flexibility to invest in product development, international expansion, and AI capabilities. A conservatively levered balance sheet reduces refinancing risk and supports strategic execution over the medium term.

Negative Factors

GAAP Profitability Deficit

Despite revenue growth and margin gains, nCino remains GAAP loss-making and posts a negative ROE. Persistent net losses constrain retained earnings, limit dividend or buyback optionality, and require continued operating improvement to convert margin expansion into sustainable GAAP profitability.

Decelerating Free Cash Flow

FCF deceleration reduces internal funding for R&D and go-to-market expansion, increasing reliance on careful capital allocation. Slower FCF growth makes the business more sensitive to demand shocks and may prolong the timeline to self-funded scale and durable profitability.

Client Concentration & M&A Headwinds

nCino's customer base is concentrated in banks where industry consolidation can trigger contract terminations or buyouts. Bank M&A activity and any client consolidation create churn and revenue timing risk, and declining professional services revenue suggests some revenue streams are more volatile during such structural shifts.

nCino Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

nCino, Inc., a software-as-a-service company, provides cloud-based software applications to financial institutions in the United States and internationally. Its nCino Bank Operating System, a tenant cloud platform, which digitizes, automates, and streamlines complex processes and workflow; and utilizes data analytics and artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) to enable banks and credit unions to onboard new clients, make loans and manage the entire loan life cycle, open deposit and other accounts, and manage regulatory compliance. The company's nCino IQ, an application suite that utilizes data analytics and AI/ML to provide its customers with automation and insights into their operations, such as tools for analyzing, measuring, and managing credit risk, as well as to enhance their ability to comply with regulatory requirements. It also offers SimpleNexus, a suite of products that enables loan officers, borrowers, real estate agents, settlement agents, and others to engage in the homeownership process from internet-enabled device. The company serves financial institution customers, including global financial institutions, enterprise banks, regional banks, community banks, credit unions, new market entrants, and independent mortgage banks through sales team comprising business development representatives, account executives, field sales engineers, and customer success managers. nCino, Inc. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Wilmington, North Carolina.

How the Company Makes Money

nCino generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for its cloud-based solutions. The company utilizes a Software as a Service (SaaS) model, where clients pay a recurring fee based on the number of users or the volume of transactions processed through its platform. Key revenue streams include implementation services, ongoing customer support, and training. Additionally, nCino has established strategic partnerships with major financial institutions and technology companies, which contribute to its market reach and credibility, further enhancing its revenue potential. The company also benefits from upselling opportunities as clients expand their use of nCino's services and as it introduces new features and products.

nCino Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue is growing and gross margins are stable around ~60%, and the balance sheet is conservatively levered (very low debt-to-equity). However, profitability remains a key weakness (TTM net loss and negative ROE), and free cash flow, while positive, has shown deceleration.

Income Statement

nCino's revenue has shown consistent growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 2.33%. Gross profit margins are stable around 60%, indicating strong cost management. However, the company is still operating at a net loss, with a negative net profit margin of -3.71% in the TTM. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved but remain low, reflecting ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is relatively strong, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0137 in the TTM, indicating low leverage. However, the return on equity is negative, reflecting the company's ongoing net losses. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting a solid capital structure.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has improved significantly, with a positive operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.322 in the TTM. Free cash flow is also positive, although it has decreased compared to the previous period. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 0.89, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Jan 2025	Jan 2024	Jan 2023	Jan 2022	Jan 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	586.49M	540.66M	476.54M	408.31M	273.87M	204.29M
Gross Profit	352.61M	324.79M	285.07M	238.71M	162.45M	116.16M
EBITDA	45.75M	9.55M	7.46M	-56.47M	-62.43M	-33.12M
Net Income	-21.77M	-37.88M	-42.35M	-102.72M	-49.45M	-40.54M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.56B	1.61B	1.34B	1.33B	1.30B	563.40M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	87.59M	120.93M	112.08M	82.04M	88.01M	371.43M
Total Debt	269.37M	236.82M	74.23M	96.54M	48.84M	16.26M
Total Liabilities	507.25M	512.78M	287.83M	299.60M	230.51M	134.43M
Stockholders Equity	1.04B	1.09B	1.05B	1.02B	1.07B	425.18M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	59.72M	52.93M	53.41M	-34.28M	-24.69M	4.88M
Operating Cash Flow	67.11M	55.20M	57.28M	-15.38M	-19.23M	9.22M
Investing Cash Flow	-180.04M	-219.18M	-5.34M	-20.73M	-278.49M	-4.34M
Financing Cash Flow	-57.78M	170.48M	-22.10M	36.71M	15.92M	274.12M

nCino Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 15.23
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCNO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.23 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.85, below the 50-day MA of 19.27, and below the 200-day MA of 25.24, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.00 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 33.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.72 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NCNO.

nCino Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FRSH	73 Outperform	$2.28B	19.41	18.70%	―	18.18%	70.94%
QTWO	67 Neutral	$3.08B	86.24	8.62%	―	13.93%	―
GTM	66 Neutral	$1.80B	26.41	7.96%	―	1.47%	1077.70%
INTA	66 Neutral	$2.06B	-156.46	-5.49%	―	17.11%	-19.12%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
NCNO	59 Neutral	$1.74B	116.70	-2.04%	―	12.14%	-19.29%
BL	54 Neutral	$2.30B	168.71	6.57%	―	7.36%	-40.62%