National Cinemedia (NCMI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $549.26M
• Dividend Yield: 0.52%
• Average Volume (3M): 933.80K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.12
• Revenue Growth: 45.67%
• EPS Growth: -100.72%
• Country: US
• Employees: 254
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 79
• Industry: Advertising Agencies
• EPS (TTM): -0.23
• Shares Outstanding: 95,192,215
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,062,323
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 933,801
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.26
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 4.50
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.40
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $7.50
• Price Target Upside: 29.09% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

National Cinemedia's overall stock score is 50. The company is facing significant financial challenges with declining revenues and operational inefficiencies. However, improvements in cash flow and strategic initiatives, including dividend reintroduction, reflect potential recovery. Technical analysis indicates bearish trends, while valuation challenges remain due to ongoing losses.

Positive Factors

Ad Technology

NCMx is advancing its ad tech strategy with tools that deliver real-time campaign optimization and measurable ROI, making it an attractive choice for media buyers.

Box Office Growth

The domestic box office is expected to rise approximately 12% YoY in Q2 2025, supported by a promising film slate and early success from A Minecraft Movie.

Market Position

Rising attendance expands the impression base that fuels its media business, benefiting National CineMedia's market position.

Negative Factors

Advertising Environment

Sequential improvement is expected in Q2, with a return to growth driven by a stronger ad environment and high-margin digital initiatives.

Film Slate Challenges

NCM stands to gain from a strong box office environment beginning in Q2:25 through 2026.

Financial Performance

Q1 results were impacted by weak film slate, seasonal advertising softness, and macro-related delays in ad spending.

National Cinemedia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

National Cinemedia, Inc. (NCMI) is a leading cinema advertising company in the United States. It operates the largest digital in-theatre network in North America, providing advertising and marketing solutions to national, regional, and local businesses. NCMI partners with major theater chains to deliver engaging content and advertising to moviegoers, enhancing the cinema experience before the feature film begins.

How the Company Makes Money

National Cinemedia generates revenue primarily through the sale of advertising and marketing solutions displayed in theaters. The company partners with major theater chains like AMC, Cinemark, and Regal to show pre-movie advertisements on the big screen, in lobbies, and through digital and mobile platforms associated with these theaters. NCMI earns money by selling advertising time and space to businesses looking to reach a captive audience. The company benefits from significant partnerships with leading cinema chains, ensuring a wide reach and access to a large, diverse audience base. Additionally, NCMI engages in strategic partnerships and content integrations, enhancing its offerings and appeal to advertisers.

National Cinemedia Financial Statement Overview

Summary

National Cinemedia faces significant challenges with income statement volatility, declining revenues, and operational inefficiencies. The balance sheet shows some recovery in equity but is burdened by high debt. Cash flow improvements suggest better liquidity management but historical volatility remains a concern.

Income Statement

National Cinemedia's income statement shows significant volatility with declining revenues and profitability over the years. The gross profit margin and net profit margin are adversely affected, with net income consistently negative, indicating core operational challenges. Revenue has decreased significantly from 2019 to 2023, reflecting challenges in maintaining market share or sales growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, underscoring operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a mixed picture with substantial improvement in stockholders' equity from negative to positive in recent years, highlighting some recovery. However, the high debt levels and past negative equity raise concerns about long-term financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved but remains a point of risk due to potential leverage issues. The equity ratio has shown improvement, but the historical negative equity indicates past financial distress.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals notable improvements with positive free cash flow and operating cash flow in the latest year, suggesting better cash management. Despite prior years of negative free cash flow, the recent trend shows recovery potential. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates better cash conversion, although previous years' negative cash flows highlight historical challenges.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
240.80M	165.20M	249.20M	114.60M	90.40M
	Gross Profit
115.20M	85.10M	222.00M	96.20M	80.10M
	EBIT
-19.50M	-27.30M	13.40M	-68.60M	-59.30M
	EBITDA
-1.30M	750.10M	45.00M	-18.20M	129.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-22.30M	705.20M	-28.60M	-113.50M	-126.30M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
75.20M	34.60M	62.40M	102.50M	181.80M
	Total Assets
568.60M	567.70M	792.40M	817.40M	886.20M
	Total Debt
10.00M	16.00M	1.12B	1.10B	1.05B
	Net Debt
-65.10M	-24.60M	1.06B	996.30M	872.00M
	Total Liabilities
157.40M	133.20M	1.26B	1.20B	1.15B
	Stockholders Equity
411.20M	434.50M	-515.30M	-383.50M	-268.60M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
54.50M	-10.00M	-50.20M	-100.90M	47.30M
	Operating Cash Flow
60.30M	-6.70M	-47.30M	-95.20M	55.30M
	Investing Cash Flow
-5.70M	32.60M	-400.00K	-5.40M	15.60M
	Financing Cash Flow
-14.10M	-52.10M	10.30M	21.50M	53.50M

National Cinemedia Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 5.81
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCMI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.84, below the 50-day MA of 6.22, and below the 200-day MA of 6.38, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NCMI.

National Cinemedia Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NEXN	73 Outperform	£552.04M	16.08	2.57%	―	10.09%	―
DLX	66 Neutral	$653.32M	12.38	8.61%	8.21%	-3.22%	99.58%
EEX	59 Neutral	$712.56M	―	0.51%	1.26%	4.18%	92.66%
Sector *	58 Neutral	$26.42B	2.90	-10.89%	4.33%	2.18%	-46.94%
NCMI	50 Neutral	$549.26M	―	-5.27%	0.52%	45.67%	-100.72%
ADV	44 Neutral	$382.48M	―	-40.41%	―	-15.17%	-567.89%
CCO	34 Underperform	$504.76M	―	4.92%	―	-13.48%	55.39%

National Cinemedia Corporate Events

National CineMedia Reintroduces Dividend and New Ad Offering

On March 13, 2025, National CineMedia announced the reintroduction of a quarterly dividend and the launch of a new advertising offering during their Investor Day Event. The company declared a cash dividend of $0.03 per share, payable on April 7, 2025, reflecting its improved financial position and strategic focus on enhancing shareholder value.

National Cinemedia Secures New $45 Million Loan Agreement

On January 24, 2025, National CineMedia, LLC entered into a $45 million Loan and Security Agreement with U.S. Bank National Association, replacing its previous $55 million credit facility. This new agreement aims to reduce interest expenses, extend maturity, and provide a cash flow-based revolving loan. It includes customary covenants and financial requirements, with funds to be used for general corporate purposes.