National Cinemedia (NCMI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $306.44M
• Dividend Yield: 3.05%
• Average Volume (3M): 460.31K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.62
• Revenue Growth: -3.67%
• EPS Growth: 34.36%
• Country: US
• Employees: 254
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Advertising Agencies
• EPS (TTM): 0.31
• Shares Outstanding: 93,143,845
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 495,485
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 460,312
• PEG Ratio: 0.66
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.89
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.51
• P/FCF Ratio: 130.85
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.87
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.09
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.60
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.06
• 1Y Price Target: $5.50
• Price Target Upside: 67.17% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.08
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $270.30M

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $3.50 ▲(6.38% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/04/26

The score reflects improved financial stability (low leverage and recovered revenue) but ongoing questions around consistent profitability and free-cash-flow durability. Technicals are neutral with a short-term bounce but weaker longer-term trend, while valuation is supported by the dividend but limited by negative earnings; earnings-call guidance for a weak Q1 with negative OIBDA caps upside near term.

Positive Factors

Market position & strategic partnerships

The AMC agreement and Spotlight acquisition strengthen NCMI’s unique access to captive cinema audiences and premium inventory. These durable partnerships broaden advertiser reach, reduce distribution risk versus competitors, and create differentiated ad products that support sustained national campaign demand and higher-yield placements.

De-risked balance sheet

Materially improved capitalization provides financial flexibility to invest in product, pursue acquisitions, and fund shareholder returns without heavy leverage. Low net debt cushions the company against cyclical ad slowdowns and reduces refinancing risk, preserving long-term strategic optionality for management.

Programmatic & self-serve revenue momentum

Rapid growth in programmatic and self-serve shifts revenue mix toward scalable, lower-sales-cycle channels that improve monetization and advertiser diversification. Higher impressions sold per attendee point to better inventory yields, supporting more predictable, recurring revenue streams over multiple quarters.

Negative Factors

Inconsistent profitability

Recurring net losses indicate the company has not converted revenue gains into stable bottom-line profitability. Persistent negative or volatile net income limits retained earnings, constrains return on equity, and reduces internal funding capacity for long-term initiatives absent sustained margin improvement.

Volatile free cash flow

Sharp swings in operating and free cash flow undermine the durability of capital returns and reinvestment plans. Dependence on timing of receivables and client prepayments creates earnings/cash mismatch risk, complicating budgeting for marketing, product investments, or deal-making over the medium term.

Cyclicality & pricing pressure

Revenue heavily tied to box-office calendars and advertiser allocation makes results sensitive to attendance and external events. A deliberate CPM reduction to drive utilization risks lower long-term pricing power and margin pressure if volume gains don't offset lower unit rates, amplifying cyclicality.

National Cinemedia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

National CineMedia, Inc., through its subsidiary, National CineMedia, LLC, operates cinema advertising network in North America. It engages in the sale of advertising to national, regional, and local businesses in Noovie, a cinema advertising and entertainment pre-show seen on movie screens; and sells advertising on its Lobby Entertainment Network, a series of strategically-placed screens located in movie theater lobbies, as well as other forms of advertising and promotions in theatre lobbies. The company is also engaged in the sale of online and mobile advertising through its Noovie Audience Accelerator product, as well as a suite of Noovie digital properties, such as Noovie Shuffle, Noovie Trivia, Name That Movie, and Noovie Arcade to reach entertainment audiences beyond the theater. It offers its services to third-party theater circuits under long-term network affiliate agreements. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Centennial, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

National Cinemedia generates revenue primarily through advertising sales. The company offers a range of advertising products, including on-screen ads, lobby displays, and mobile and digital extensions that allow brands to engage with audiences before, during, and after movies. Key revenue streams include national and local advertising contracts, where advertisers pay for visibility in front of captive audiences. NCMI also benefits from partnerships with major cinema chains, which provide access to their audiences and enhance the company's advertising reach. Additional revenue is derived from the sale of sponsorships and promotional events tied to movie releases. The company's earnings are bolstered by its ability to leverage data analytics to provide targeted advertising solutions, making ad placements more effective and appealing to advertisers.

National Cinemedia Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue has rebounded to the ~$240M range, and the balance sheet is materially de-risked with low debt and positive equity. However, profitability is still inconsistent (net losses in 2024 and 2026) and free cash flow durability is a concern given the sharp step-down in the latest year and prior-year volatility.

Income Statement

Revenue has recovered meaningfully from 2023 to 2024–2026 (annual revenue up from ~$165M in 2023 to ~$241–243M in 2024–2026), showing improving demand. Profitability, however, remains inconsistent: 2024 and 2026 are still loss-making (net losses of ~$22M and ~$11M, respectively), and operating profit is negative in the most recent periods. Margins were healthy in 2022–2024 on a gross basis (~30–53%), but the company has not translated that into durable bottom-line profitability, and some reported margin fields appear missing/zero in 2026 which limits comparability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage and capitalization look materially improved versus 2020–2022, when equity was negative and debt was very high. In 2023–2026, equity is strongly positive (~$411–435M) and debt is low (~$16–24M), resulting in modest debt-to-equity (~0.04–0.06). The key weakness is returns: recent profitability has not been strong enough to consistently generate attractive returns on equity (negative in 2024, and 2026 return data appears unavailable/zeroed), suggesting the balance sheet is healthier than earnings power.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is volatile. 2024 showed strong cash performance (operating cash flow ~$60M and free cash flow ~$55M), but 2026 cash flow is far weaker (operating cash flow ~$8M and free cash flow ~$3M) with a sharp decline in free cash flow growth. Earlier periods also show swings, including negative operating and free cash flow in 2021–2023 and 2022. Overall, the company can generate cash in good years, but the consistency and durability of free cash flow remain a risk.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	243.20M	240.80M	165.20M	249.20M	114.60M
Gross Profit	73.80M	72.80M	85.10M	131.30M	37.70M
EBITDA	24.00M	22.00M	750.10M	45.00M	-18.00M
Net Income	-10.60M	-22.30M	705.20M	-28.70M	-48.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	568.60M	568.60M	567.70M	792.40M	817.40M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	75.10M	75.20M	34.60M	64.50M	101.50M
Total Debt	22.50M	24.20M	16.00M	1.14B	1.12B
Total Liabilities	157.40M	157.40M	133.20M	1.26B	1.20B
Stockholders Equity	411.20M	411.20M	434.50M	-515.30M	-526.70M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.80M	54.50M	-10.00M	-50.20M	-100.90M
Operating Cash Flow	8.40M	60.30M	-6.70M	-47.30M	-95.20M
Investing Cash Flow	-15.40M	-5.70M	32.60M	-400.00K	-5.40M
Financing Cash Flow	-33.50M	-14.10M	-52.10M	10.30M	21.50M

National Cinemedia Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.29
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCMI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.29 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.40, below the 50-day MA of 3.55, and below the 200-day MA of 4.22, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NCMI.

National Cinemedia Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BOC	63 Neutral	$382.47M	-39.74	-0.04%	―	7.22%	97.88%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
CCO	58 Neutral	$1.19B	-2.59	―	―	-29.67%	30.13%
ADV	51 Neutral	$242.36M	-1.25	-34.48%	―	-7.12%	-7.75%
NCMI	50 Neutral	$306.44M	-34.56	-4.10%	3.05%	-3.67%	34.36%
CDLX	42 Neutral	$37.15M	-0.59	-370.98%	―	-14.41%	65.67%
VSME	31 Underperform	$3.03M	-22.59	-194.72%	―	-11.51%	74.52%

National Cinemedia Corporate Events

National CineMedia Extends Key Executive Employment Agreements

On December 22, 2025, National CineMedia, Inc. extended the employment agreements of Chief Executive Officer Thomas F. Lesinski and Chief Legal Officer and Secretary Maria V. Woods through December 31, 2028, signaling a commitment to leadership continuity. Effective January 1, 2026, Lesinski’s amended agreement raises his annual base salary to $1,000,000, sets his target annual bonus at 100% of base salary, and provides for at least $1,000,000 in annual long-term incentive awards, plus a 2026 grant of 1,500,000 stock options that will vest based on performance thresholds set by the board’s Compensation and Leadership Committee; the contract also outlines enhanced cash severance and benefits if he is terminated without cause or following a change in control, contingent on a release of claims. Woods’ amended agreement, effective December 31, 2025, increases her base salary to $485,000, maintains eligibility for an annual cash bonus targeted at 75% of base salary, and preserves access to long-term incentive awards at the committee’s discretion, with other terms largely consistent with her prior contract. These moves reinforce National CineMedia’s executive bench at a time when stability in top management and aligned incentive structures are important for executing strategy and protecting stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (NCMI) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Cinemedia stock, see the NCMI Stock Forecast page.