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National Bank Holdings (NBHC)
NYSE:NBHC

National Bank Holdings (NBHC) AI Stock Analysis

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National Bank Holdings

(NYSE:NBHC)

67Neutral
NBHC exhibits strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth and solid profit margins, though technical analysis indicates a bearish trend. The stock's valuation suggests it might be undervalued, and a positive earnings call sentiment provides a supportive outlook. The overall score reflects these mixed aspects, with strengths in financial health and valuation, but caution in technical trends.

National Bank Holdings (NBHC) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

National Bank Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNational Bank Holdings Corporation operates as the bank holding company for NBH Bank that provides various banking products and financial services to commercial, business, and consumer clients in the United States. It offers deposit products, including checking, savings, money market, and other deposit accounts, including fixed-rate and fixed maturity time deposits. The company also provides commercial and industrial loans and leases, such as working capital loans, equipment loans, lender finance loans, food and agriculture loans, government and non-profit loans, owner occupied commercial real estate loans, and other commercial loans and leases; non-owner occupied commercial real estate loans consisting of loans on commercial properties, such as office buildings, warehouse/distribution buildings, multi-family, hospitality, and retail buildings; small business administration loans to support manufacturers, distributors, and service providers; term loans, line of credits, and real estate secured loans; residential real estate loans; and consumer loans. In addition, it offers treasury management solutions comprising online and mobile banking, commercial credit card, wire transfer, automated clearing house, electronic bill payment, lock box, remote deposit capture, merchant processing, cash vault, controlled disbursements, and fraud prevention services, as well as other auxiliary services, including account reconciliation, collections, repurchase accounts, zero balance accounts, and sweep accounts. As of January 20, 2022, the company operated through a network of 81 banking centers located in Colorado, the greater Kansas City region, New Mexico, Utah, and Texas. It also operates 121 ATMs. The company was formerly known as NBH Holdings Corp. and changed its name to National Bank Holdings Corporation in March 2012. National Bank Holdings Corporation was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Greenwood Village, Colorado.
How the Company Makes MoneyNational Bank Holdings Corporation generates revenue through various financial services, primarily focusing on interest income from loans and leases. The company earns interest by lending money to individuals and businesses, including commercial loans, real estate loans, and consumer loans, and charging interest on these loans. Additionally, NBHC generates non-interest income through fees and service charges related to deposit accounts, wealth management services, and transaction processing. The company also benefits from its mortgage banking activities, earning income from the origination and sale of mortgage loans. Strategic partnerships with other financial institutions and service providers may enhance NBHC's product offerings and revenue opportunities, although specific partnerships are not detailed here.

National Bank Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
National Bank Holdings presents a strong financial position with consistent revenue growth and robust profit margins. The company benefits from a solid balance sheet with no debt and a healthy cash flow position. While the reduction in net profit margin and ROE in 2024 signals potential areas for improvement, the overall financial health remains positive, supporting future growth opportunities.
Income Statement
75
Positive
National Bank Holdings shows a strong revenue growth with a 28.1% increase from 2023 to 2024 and robust gross profit margins consistently at 100% due to its business model. EBIT margin improved significantly to 98.7% in 2024, indicating efficient operations. However, net profit margin decreased from 33.8% in 2023 to 22.1% in 2024, suggesting rising expenses or strategic investments affecting net income.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The company maintains a solid equity base with an equity ratio of 13.3% in 2024, reflecting strong financial health and stability. The absence of total debt in 2024 is a positive indicator of low leverage. Return on equity decreased to 9.1% in 2024 from 11.7% in 2023, suggesting room for improved profitability.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Free cash flow increased by 19.3% from 2023 to 2024, demonstrating effective cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.31 in 2024 indicates strong cash generation relative to earnings. However, the cash flow from financing activities is negative, which could indicate repayment of liabilities or strategic investments.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
538.27M420.10M340.31M297.98M333.24M
Gross Profit
538.27M417.57M340.31M297.98M333.24M
EBIT
531.21M179.95M109.55M120.13M114.50M
EBITDA
0.000.00102.63M128.56M123.85M
Net Income Common Stockholders
118.81M142.05M71.27M93.61M88.59M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
655.39M190.83M901.79M1.54B1.27B
Total Assets
9.81B9.95B9.57B7.21B6.66B
Total Debt
104.51M394.20M438.89M39.48M48.89M
Net Debt
-23.34M203.37M243.38M-806.22M-556.68M
Total Liabilities
8.50B8.74B8.48B39.48M5.84B
Stockholders Equity
1.31B1.21B1.09B840.11M820.69M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
155.27M130.10M202.20M174.36M-14.22M
Operating Cash Flow
155.27M166.94M214.63M179.50M-9.87M
Investing Cash Flow
64.66M-404.03M-752.14M-473.84M-148.94M
Financing Cash Flow
-284.41M230.90M-114.20M528.99M654.18M

National Bank Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price35.74
Price Trends
50DMA
39.13
Negative
100DMA
41.66
Negative
200DMA
41.94
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.25
Negative
RSI
42.55
Neutral
STOCH
76.78
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBHC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 35.74 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.49, below the 50-day MA of 39.13, and below the 200-day MA of 41.94, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NBHC.

National Bank Holdings Risk Analysis

National Bank Holdings disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Bank Holdings reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

National Bank Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$1.34B11.977.52%2.10%1.68%-10.31%
72
Outperform
$1.26B9.659.85%3.86%5.36%-8.74%
70
Outperform
$1.43B8.9510.44%-3.61%-29.58%
67
Neutral
$1.35B11.539.41%3.21%6.24%-17.05%
67
Neutral
$1.33B12.6012.16%3.09%11.44%-2.75%
66
Neutral
$1.34B10.1112.51%2.59%12.26%7.48%
63
Neutral
$12.00B9.278.14%79.61%12.85%-5.12%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NBHC
National Bank Holdings
35.74
2.68
8.11%
SRCE
1St Source
54.25
5.31
10.85%
GABC
German American Bancorp
35.34
3.08
9.55%
STBA
S&T Bancorp
34.46
4.74
15.95%
CUBI
Customers Bancorp
44.01
-4.96
-10.13%
STEL
Stellar Bancorp
25.49
2.55
11.12%

National Bank Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Jan 22, 2025 | % Change Since: -17.38% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a generally positive sentiment, with strong net interest income growth, increased tangible book value, and effective deposit management. However, these positives were offset by challenges including a significant loss from the investment security sale and concerns in the transportation sector. The ongoing investment in 2UniFi also represents a substantial expense.
Highlights
Strong Net Interest Income Growth
The company delivered 11.3% annualized net interest income growth during the quarter with a strong net interest margin of 3.99%.
Tangible Book Value Increase
Tangible book value grew 11% during 2024.
Capital Ratios
Exited the year with a common equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 13.2% and a TCE ratio of 10.2%.
Positive Loan Funding
Loan fundings during the quarter totaled $480 million, among the highest loan production quarters in the company's history.
Deposit Strategy Success
A 22 basis point reduction in the cost of deposits contributed to net margin expansion.
Lowlights
Investment Security Sale Loss
A strategic sale of investment securities resulted in an after-tax loss of $5 million.
Transportation Sector Concerns
Weakness was noted in the transportation space, a minor segment of the portfolio, leading to some non-performing assets.
Noninterest Income Decline
Total noninterest income for the fourth quarter was impacted by $6.6 million of pretax losses on investment security sales.
2UniFi Expenses
2025 projected noninterest expenses include significant investment in 2UniFi, amounting to $27 million to $29 million.
Company Guidance
During the fourth quarter earnings call for National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC), the company provided several key metrics and guidance for the upcoming year. For Q4 2024, NBHC reported net income of $28.2 million, equating to $0.73 per diluted share. Adjusting for a one-time securities sale loss, net income was $33.2 million or $0.86 per diluted share, with an adjusted return on average tangible common equity of 14.4%. The net interest margin expanded to 3.99%, and the company achieved a 13.5% annualized growth in pre-provision net revenue. Looking ahead to 2025, NBHC projects mid-single-digit loan growth and aims to maintain the net interest margin in the high 3.9% range. Total noninterest income is expected to be between $72 million and $77 million, while noninterest expenses are projected to range from $272 million to $278 million, including significant investment in their 2UniFi initiative. Additionally, the effective tax rate is anticipated to be around 19%, and the bank plans to grow beyond $10 billion in total assets, driven by both loan and investment portfolio increases.

National Bank Holdings Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
National Bank Holdings Outlines Future Strategy in Presentation
Neutral
Jan 29, 2025

National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) has filed a presentation to be used in future meetings with investors and analysts, which provides forward-looking statements about the company’s strategy and expectations. The company emphasizes that these statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could lead to materially different actual results, and advises caution in relying on these predictions.

DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
National Bank Holdings Announces Dividend and Strategic Sale
Positive
Jan 22, 2025

On January 22, 2025, National Bank Holdings Corporation announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.29 per share to be paid on March 14, 2025, reflecting its financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year 2024. Despite a decrease in net income to $28.2 million for the quarter, the company showed resilience by adjusting for non-recurring losses on investments, maintaining robust capital ratios, and achieving significant growth in tangible book value per share. The strategic sale of securities aimed at optimizing the balance sheet while maintaining a strong net interest margin of 3.99% underscores its preparedness for future growth.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.