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Nautilus Biotechnolgy (NAUT)
NASDAQ:NAUT
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Nautilus Biotechnolgy
(NASDAQ:NAUT)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▲(9.09% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (pre-revenue, ongoing losses and cash burn with equity erosion risk). Partly offsetting this are constructive technical momentum signals and a moderately positive earnings-call outlook highlighting progress, validation, and a defined commercialization timeline—though near-term revenue remains small and 2026 burn is guided higher.
Positive Factors
Platform validation & technical progress
The public Voyager debut and positive researcher reception materially reduce technical risk and raise the platform's credibility. Tangible instrument demonstration accelerates partner trials, supports assay development, and makes future instrument orders and consumables adoption more likely, strengthening long-term commercial potential.
Early access customer and academic collaborations
Securing Baylor as the first Early Access customer and existing academic collaborations provide high-quality reference data and validation in disease-relevant studies. These relationships create durable scientific endorsements, case studies, and network effects that support later commercial adoption and recurring consumables demand.
Improved cash position and disciplined spending
A sizable cash balance combined with lower 2025 burn and stated runway through 2027 gives the company time to finish commercialization milestones. Demonstrated cost discipline (reduced OPEX and R&D) increases flexibility to fund instrument rollout and early commercialization without immediate dilution, supporting execution risk mitigation.
Negative Factors
Zero reported revenue
The company remains pre-revenue with no demonstrated recurring consumables or instrument sales. Without a proven commercial revenue stream, long-term margin and cash-generation profiles are untested, leaving the business reliant on successful instrument placements to validate a sustainable, recurring revenue model.
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow
Persistently negative operating and free cash flow forces ongoing reliance on external financing, which risks dilution and limits strategic flexibility. Even with current runway, rising planned 2026 investment increases funding sensitivity and could constrain the pace of commercialization if expected revenue does not materialize.
Commercial execution and sales-team risk
Lack of an established sales organization weakens ability to convert Early Access interest into preorders and instrument installations. Building commercial capability is time- and resource-intensive; any delays or hiring shortfalls can push out placements and recurring consumables revenue, amplifying financing and execution risk.
Nautilus Biotechnolgy (NAUT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$348.05M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)394.63K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.69
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS Growth11.15%
CountryUS
Employees134
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.11
Shares Outstanding126,564,476
10 Day Avg. Volume378,207
30 Day Avg. Volume394,629
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.26
Price to Book (P/B)1.57
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-4.74
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.05
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-56.56
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-6.96
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.00Price Target Upside45.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.61
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.50M
Nautilus Biotechnolgy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNautilus Biotechnology, Inc., a development stage life sciences company, engages in creating a platform technology for quantifying and unlocking the complexity of the proteome. It develops Nautilus Platform, a proteomics platform that includes end-to-end solution comprised of instruments, consumables, and software analysis. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.
How the Company Makes Moneynull
Nautilus Biotechnolgy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized meaningful technical progress, strong external validation, the successful public debut of the Voyager instrument, the early launch of an Early Access Program (Tau assay) and disciplined expense reductions that improved cash burn and extended runway through 2027. Offsetting these positives are limited near-term revenue (modest 2026 services revenue targeted at ~$0.5M), no current sales organization, and a planned increase in 2026 operating expenses and cash burn as the company invests to advance commercialization. On balance, the developments point to a company transitioning from development to early customer engagement with tangible validation and a clear commercialization timeline, though revenue and commercial execution risks remain in the near term.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Voyager Instrument Debut and Positive Community Reception
Public unveiling of the Nautilus Voyager instrument at US HUPO with highly positive feedback from researchers; provided the proteomics community its first tangible view of the system and reinforced interest from prospective customers.
Early Access Program Launched Ahead of Schedule
Iterative Mapping Early Access Program launched in January earlier than planned, beginning with the Tau proteoform assay; enables partners to submit samples, receive data and provide feedback to inform workflows and future commercial readiness (early engagements not expected to drive near-term revenue).
External Collaborations and Biological Validation
Strong external validation from collaborations with Buck Institute and Allen Institute producing biologically compelling tau proteoform data (differences across brain regions and disease severity) presented at World HUPO and US HUPO; supports claim of unique biological insight unavailable from conventional proteomics.
New Grant-Funded Collaboration for Alpha-Synuclein
18-month collaboration with Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar and The Michael J. Fox Foundation focused on alpha-synuclein proteoforms; $1.6M total funding with approximately $1.2M to Nautilus to be recognized as work progresses over 2026-2027, extending platform into Parkinson's disease applications.
Technical Progress on Assays and Platform
Progress on broadscale assay configuration change with initial data from new chips encouraging; largest-scale experiments yet demonstrated decoding of proteins from complex mixtures (including cell lysates); fabrication improvements and indications of increased on-target binding.
Tau Proteoform Assay Ready for Early Access
Verification and validation of Tau proteoform assay largely complete and meeting requirements for accuracy, dynamic range, reproducibility and stability; on schedule to begin processing Early Access Program samples by end of Q1 2026.
Operational Discipline and Reduced Spend
Fiscal 2025 cost reductions: Q4 operating expenses $15.4M (down 23% YoY vs prior year period), full-year operating expenses $66.8M (down 18% YoY). R&D expenses $41.1M (down $9.4M or 19% YoY) and G&A $25.7M (down $5.3M or 17% YoY).
Improved Cash Position and Lower Burn
Ending cash, cash equivalents and investments of $156.1M; cash burn in 2025 was $50.2M, down from $57.8M in 2024 (approximately a 13% reduction). Company expects cash runway to extend through 2027 under current plan.
Negative Updates
Limited Near-Term Revenue and Delayed Commercial Ramp
Early Access engagements are not expected to drive material revenue in 2026; management projects modest services revenue (targeting ~ $0.5M for 2026) with primary instrument and consumables revenue expected to ramp in 2027 when instrument placements begin.
No Sales Organization Today
Company currently has zero salespeople and is only beginning to build a focused commercial team this quarter, which constrains funnel conversion and delays broad commercial engagement ahead of planned late-2026 preorder launch.
Planned Increase in 2026 Operating Expense and Cash Burn
Management expects total operating expenses to rise ~15%–20% in 2026 and forecasts full-year 2026 cash burn of $65M–$70M, representing a notable step-up from 2025 levels and increasing near-term funding requirements.
Remaining Technical Optimization Required
Although progress is strong, work remains to optimize assay stability (chips stable over hundreds of cycles), further increase on-target binding and minimize off-target binding; these are optimization rather than novel-engineering issues but are necessary to scale broadly.
Revenue Concentration Risk and Timing Dependence
Future recurring revenue is dependent on instrument placements driving consumables; general availability for Voyager and core assays is targeted for late 2026/early 2027 (broadscale capabilities GA expected H1 2027), creating timing risk for the revenue ramp.
Workforce Reductions Impact and One-Time Savings
2025 expense reductions included savings from a reduction in force (lower salaries/benefits) and lower stock-based compensation; while these improved near-term cash use, they also reflect organizational changes that may affect capacity and require careful rebuild for commercial expansion.
Company Guidance
Nautilus provided clear financial and commercial guidance: it finished the quarter with $156.1M in cash, reported 2025 cash burn of $50.2M (down from $57.8M in 2024), FY2025 operating expenses of $66.8M (‑18% YoY) with R&D $41.1M (‑19%) and G&A $25.7M (‑17%), and Q4 operating expenses of $15.4M (‑23% YoY); for 2026 the company expects total operating expenses to rise ~15–20% and full‑year cash burn of $65–70M, which it says supports a cash runway through 2027; revenue guidance calls for modest services revenue later in 2026 (management targets roughly $0.5M for 2026) plus recognition of Michael J. Fox Foundation-funded work (~$1.2M to Nautilus over ~18 months, with a portion in 2026 and the remainder in 2027), while commercial milestones include Early Access (Tau) sample processing by end of Q1 2026, preorders late 2026, instrument installations beginning early 2027, GA at launch of Voyager plus Tau and a second proteoform assay, and broadscale GA in H1 2027.Nautilus Biotechnolgy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financial profile is weak: zero reported revenue across the periods provided, persistent large net losses, and consistently negative operating/free cash flow indicating ongoing cash burn and reliance on external funding. The balance sheet is a relative support with low leverage and positive equity, but equity/assets have eroded over time, keeping dilution/financing risk elevated.Income Statement
The income statement remains very weak, with zero reported revenue across all annual periods provided and persistent, sizable net losses (roughly $50–71M per year). Losses widened versus 2020 and have stayed elevated, indicating the business is still in an investment/burn phase with no demonstrated path to operating leverage in the reported numbers. A modest positive is that the 2025 net loss improved versus 2024, but profitability is still far from break-even.18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is mixed. Leverage looks manageable with debt-to-equity staying relatively low in recent years (about 0.08–0.19), and equity remains positive through 2025. However, stockholders’ equity and total assets have declined materially from 2021–2022 levels, consistent with ongoing losses eroding the capital base. Returns on equity are consistently negative (except 2020, which is distorted by negative equity), highlighting continued value dilution risk if losses persist.52
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow quality is pressured by sustained cash burn: operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative every year shown. Free cash flow burn increased in 2025 versus 2024, and free cash flow growth is negative, signaling worsening near-term cash usage. A relative positive is that free cash flow is broadly tracking net loss (free cash flow roughly in line with net income), suggesting losses are not heavily driven by non-cash accounting, but the company still relies on external funding to sustain operations.26
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | -6.46M | -6.35M | -5.71M | -3.42M | -2.84M |
| EBITDA | -52.54M | -64.43M | -74.30M | -54.51M | -47.47M |
| Net Income | -59.00M | -70.78M | -63.67M | -57.92M | -50.31M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 191.11M | 242.74M | 305.56M | 350.05M | 398.45M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 103.41M | 129.89M | 173.42M | 184.47M | 345.73M |
| Total Debt | 30.02M | 30.48M | 34.63M | 30.33M | 30.03M |
| Total Liabilities | 34.14M | 34.01M | 40.21M | 35.13M | 34.87M |
| Stockholders Equity | 156.97M | 208.73M | 265.35M | 314.92M | 363.58M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -51.97M | -61.27M | -54.15M | -48.13M | -41.51M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -50.70M | -59.15M | -51.71M | -45.81M | -39.24M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 35.22M | 66.25M | -43.73M | -25.74M | -138.96M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 214.00K | 1.14M | 368.00K | 562.00K | 327.45M |
Nautilus Biotechnolgy Technical Analysis
Positive
2.75
Price Trends
2.30
Positive
2.09
Positive
1.43
Positive
Market Momentum
0.08
Negative
61.00
Neutral
83.98
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NAUT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.54, above the 50-day MA of 2.30, and above the 200-day MA of 1.43, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.98 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NAUT.
Nautilus Biotechnolgy Risk Analysis
Nautilus Biotechnolgy disclosed 69 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nautilus Biotechnolgy reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nautilus Biotechnolgy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
54 Neutral | $176.87M | -0.98 | -97.41% | ― | ― | -60.99% | |
52 Neutral | $348.05M | -4.17 | -33.64% | ― | ― | 11.15% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
46 Neutral | $97.33M | -1.64 | -26.04% | ― | 13.77% | -4.76% | |
45 Neutral | $25.45M | -0.37 | ― | ― | -33.00% | 54.91% | |
44 Neutral | $142.76M | -2.97 | -73.11% | ― | ― | 63.31% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.