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Metallus (MTUS)
NYSE:MTUS

Metallus (MTUS) AI Stock Analysis

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Metallus

(NYSE:MTUS)

Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$14.50
▲(3.13%Upside)
Metallus' overall stock score is driven by strong corporate events and positive earnings call guidance, indicating potential for future growth. However, financial performance challenges and technical indicators reflecting a bearish trend weigh down the score. The negative P/E ratio suggests valuation concerns, necessitating improvements in profitability to enhance attractiveness.

Metallus (MTUS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Metallus Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMetallus Inc. manufactures and sells alloy steel, and carbon and micro-alloy steel products in the United States and internationally. The company offers special bar quality (SBQ) bars, seamless mechanical tubes, precision steel components, and billets that are used in gears, hubs, axles, crankshafts and motor shafts, oil country drill pipes, bits and collars, bearing races and rolling elements, bushings, fuel injectors, wind energy shafts, anti-friction bearings, artillery and mortar bodies, and other applications. It also provides custom-make precision steel components. It offers its products and services to the automotive, energy, industrial equipment, mining, construction, rail, aerospace and defense, heavy truck, agriculture, and power generation sectors. The company was formerly known as TimkenSteel Corporation and changed its name to Metallus Inc. in February 2024. Metallus Inc. was founded in 1899 and is headquartered in Canton, Ohio.
How the Company Makes MoneyMetallus generates revenue through the sale of metal components and materials to various industries. The company's key revenue streams include direct sales contracts with manufacturers in the automotive and aerospace sectors, where precision and quality are critical. Additionally, Metallus leverages strategic partnerships with construction firms and electronics manufacturers to supply specialized metal products tailored to their specific needs. The company also invests in research and development to create cutting-edge materials that command premium pricing. Metallus's focus on sustainability and efficient production processes helps reduce costs and increase profitability, while its wide distribution network ensures a steady flow of sales across domestic and international markets.

Metallus Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 7.41%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Metallus demonstrated strong performance with significant increases in order backlog, shipment growth, and profitability. The company effectively managed costs and showed improvements in safety metrics. However, challenges such as decreased aerospace and defense shipments, high pension contributions affecting cash flow, and unfavorable price/mix effects were noted. Despite these challenges, the company remains optimistic about future growth prospects.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Increase in Order Backlog
Order backlog increased approximately 50% from the same period a year ago due to growing demand for domestic steel.
Improvement in Safety Metrics
Year-over-year improvement in all safety metrics, with a focus on lockout/tagout/tryout and zero incident planning exceeding target rates.
Strong Sequential Growth in Shipments
Overall shipments increased by 17% compared with the fourth quarter, driven by higher industrial, automotive, and energy shipments.
Increased Profitability
Sequential profitability more than doubled, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by $9.4 million to $17.7 million in the first quarter.
Successful Cost Management
Manufacturing costs declined by $12.5 million on a sequential basis, driven by increased cost absorption and lower maintenance costs.
Negative Updates
Decline in Aerospace and Defense Shipments
Aerospace and defense shipments decreased due to production start-up challenges faced by key customers.
High Pension Contributions Impacting Cash Flow
The company made $52.6 million of required pension contributions, driving an operating cash flow outflow of $38.9 million in the first quarter.
Unfavorable Price/Mix Effects
Unfavorable price/mix during the quarter was driven by lower base prices and a higher mix of automotive and distribution shipments.
Company Guidance
During Metallus' first quarter 2025 conference call, the company provided optimistic guidance, highlighting a 17% sequential increase in overall shipments driven by higher demand in industrial, automotive, and energy markets, although aerospace and defense shipments saw a decline. The order backlog increased by approximately 50% year-over-year, reflecting strong market share gains and customer confidence. The company reported net sales of $280.5 million, an increase of $40 million from the previous quarter, and adjusted EBITDA of $17.7 million, up by $9.4 million sequentially. Metallus plans to invest approximately $5 million in safety improvements and expects second-quarter adjusted EBITDA to surpass the first quarter, supported by higher anticipated A&D shipments and recent spot price increases. The company is also benefiting from U.S. government funding, which will support significant capital expenditures, including a $125 million forecast for 2025, with $90 million funded by the government. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, Metallus remains confident in its strategic focus on cost management, safety, and sustainable profitability, supported by a strong balance sheet and a total liquidity of $432 million at the end of March 2025.

Metallus Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Metallus has a mixed financial performance with a stable balance sheet but challenges in income statement and cash flow metrics. The company needs to improve profitability and cash conversion. The low leverage is positive, but enhancing operational efficiency and revenue growth remains crucial.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Metallus has experienced fluctuating revenue and profit margins. The gross profit margin improved significantly from 2020 to 2021 but declined afterwards, indicating potential cost management issues. The net profit margin has been volatile, with a notable decrease in 2022 and 2023. Revenue growth was inconsistent, with declines in 2023 and 2024. The EBIT and EBITDA margins reflect operational challenges, particularly in recent years.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The balance sheet shows a solid equity position with an improving equity ratio over the years, indicating increased stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is low, suggesting conservative leverage. However, there is a slight decline in stockholders' equity in 2024, which may require attention. Overall, the company maintains a strong financial position with manageable debt levels.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals a decreasing trend in operating cash flow over recent years, impacting free cash flow, which turned negative in 2024. The free cash flow to net income ratio indicates challenges in converting profits into cash. The company has maintained positive operating cash flow, yet fluctuations suggest some cash management difficulties.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.08B1.36B1.30B1.25B830.70M
Gross Profit
97.70M186.50M101.20M189.10M15.60M
EBIT
10.00M101.90M112.10M202.70M-46.10M
EBITDA
61.20M153.30M156.00M244.20M18.10M
Net Income Common Stockholders
1.30M69.40M65.10M171.00M-61.90M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
240.70M280.60M257.20M259.60M102.80M
Total Assets
1.12B1.18B1.08B1.16B994.00M
Total Debt
17.10M24.60M32.90M59.40M99.20M
Net Debt
-223.60M-256.00M-224.30M-200.20M-3.60M
Total Liabilities
426.20M443.70M395.50M494.30M486.50M
Stockholders Equity
690.50M731.60M686.50M664.60M507.50M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-24.00M73.70M107.40M184.70M156.60M
Operating Cash Flow
40.30M125.30M134.50M196.90M173.50M
Investing Cash Flow
-10.80M-49.90M-21.70M-4.80M-6.00M
Financing Cash Flow
-68.90M-51.90M-114.60M-35.30M-91.80M

Metallus Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price14.06
Price Trends
50DMA
12.96
Positive
100DMA
13.84
Positive
200DMA
14.47
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.25
Negative
RSI
59.28
Neutral
STOCH
86.85
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTUS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.14, above the 50-day MA of 12.96, and below the 200-day MA of 14.47, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.85 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MTUS.

Metallus Risk Analysis

Metallus disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Metallus reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Metallus Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
FRFRD
73
Outperform
$117.52M20.844.51%0.95%-12.19%-67.95%
WSWS
66
Neutral
$1.32B11.8511.10%2.46%-6.82%-36.02%
64
Neutral
$590.85M30.62-3.00%-23.34%-128.05%
55
Neutral
$138.09M-8.42%-6.70%61.17%
53
Neutral
$352.85M22.002.95%1.93%-9.65%-61.57%
53
Neutral
$835.34M-41.03%2.53%-2.75%-339.59%
51
Neutral
$2.02B-1.14-21.36%3.64%2.88%-30.57%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MTUS
Metallus
14.06
-7.86
-35.86%
FRD
Friedman Industries
16.86
1.07
6.78%
ZEUS
Olympic Steel
31.61
-16.22
-33.91%
RDUS
Schnitzer Steel Industries
29.62
14.05
90.24%
ACNT
Ascent Industries
13.14
3.00
29.59%
WS
Worthington Steel, Inc.
25.96
-4.75
-15.47%

Metallus Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Metallus Announces New Leadership Appointments
Positive
May 20, 2025

On May 19, 2025, Metallus Inc. announced the promotion of Kristopher R. Westbrooks to President and Chief Operating Officer, effective June 16, 2025. Westbrooks, who has been with the company since 2018, will lead Metallus’ safety, manufacturing operations, and supply chain organizations, aligning with strategic initiatives to support growth objectives. Concurrently, John M. Zaranec III was appointed as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Zaranec brings over 20 years of financial experience from the manufacturing and industrial sectors, most recently serving at Materion Corporation. These leadership changes are expected to enhance Metallus’ operational excellence and strategic growth, benefiting stakeholders and positioning the company for continued success.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTUS) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metallus stock, see the MTUS Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Metallus Shareholders Elect Directors and Ratify Auditor
Positive
May 8, 2025

At the Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 7, 2025, Metallus shareholders elected four directors for three-year terms, ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent auditor for 2025, and approved executive compensation on an advisory basis. These decisions reflect shareholder support for the company’s current leadership and financial oversight, potentially strengthening its governance and operational strategies moving forward.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Metallus Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
May 8, 2025

On May 8, 2025, Metallus reported its first-quarter 2025 financial results, showing net sales of $280.5 million, a 17% increase from the previous quarter, but a 13% decrease compared to the same period last year. The company achieved a net income of $1.3 million and adjusted EBITDA of $17.7 million. Metallus also invested $27.5 million in capital expenditures and repurchased $5.6 million in common shares. The company highlighted its strong order book and market share gains, supported by steel tariffs, and noted increased order bookings. Despite some volatility in the defense supply chain, Metallus remains committed to expanding capacity and supporting the U.S. Army’s munitions production. The company plans to continue strategic investments and share repurchases while focusing on safety and customer service to ensure sustainable profitability.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.