Metallus (MTUS)
NYSE:MTUS
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Metallus
(NYSE:MTUS)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▼(-3.73% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
The score is held back mainly by weakened profitability and sharply negative free cash flow despite a strong balance sheet. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend, and the latest call adds optimism via improving 2026 shipment/cost guidance and strong liquidity, but recent Q4 weakness and execution risks keep the overall score moderate.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength & liquidity
Extremely low leverage and large cash/liquidity give the company durable financial flexibility to fund 2026 capex, absorb pension and wage timing, pursue buybacks, or weather a slow cycle. This reduces refinancing and solvency risk and supports strategic investments over 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Margin compression & weak profitability
Material margin erosion and a near-breakeven TTM net margin indicate structural pressure on profitability from mix, lower surcharge recovery, and higher costs. Persistently compressed margins constrain internal cash generation and raise the bar for sustaining investments and servicing fixed obligations over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet strength & liquidity
Extremely low leverage and large cash/liquidity give the company durable financial flexibility to fund 2026 capex, absorb pension and wage timing, pursue buybacks, or weather a slow cycle. This reduces refinancing and solvency risk and supports strategic investments over 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Metallus (MTUS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$671.86M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)352.57K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.38
Revenue Growth-3.42%
EPS Growth-134.99%
CountryUS
Employees1,880
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.18
Shares Outstanding41,730,420
10 Day Avg. Volume501,724
30 Day Avg. Volume352,572
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.07
Price to Book (P/B)1.05
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio-7.73
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.84
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.49
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.97
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.24
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.00Price Target Upside11.80% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.91
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.28B
Metallus Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Metallus Inc. manufactures and sells alloy steel, and carbon and micro-alloy steel products in the United States and internationally. The company offers special bar quality (SBQ) bars, seamless mechanical tubes, precision steel components, and bil...
How the Company Makes Money
Metallus primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling specialty steel products to customers who require specific grades, chemistries, and performance characteristics. Revenue is generated through: (1) Sales of engineered steel bars and other...
Metallus Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of material operational and financial improvements alongside near-term execution and cost challenges. Positives include strong year-over-year shipment growth (14%), a >50% expansion in the order book, nearly doubled bar sales, sustained cash generation excluding pension timing ($80M), robust liquidity ($389M), large government funding support, and targeted capital investments coming online in 2026. Offsetting these are a weak Q4 with a GAAP net loss ($14.3M), low Q4 adjusted EBITDA ($2.4M) and shipments down sequentially (−9%), higher shutdown and labor-related costs, compressed raw-material surcharge revenue (~$4M impact), extended lead times, and demand/timing risks tied to downstream A&D capacity ramp. Management provided constructive guidance for sequential improvement in Q1 (shipments +10%), manufacturing cost reduction (~$10M), pricing actions, and quarterly EBITDA growth through 2026, but execution against those plans will determine whether the positive indicators outweigh the recent shortfalls.Positive Updates
Year-over-Year Shipments Growth
Shipments improved 14% year over year in 2025, reflecting commercial recovery across specialty steel and multimetal solutions.
Negative Updates
Sequential Shipments and Volume Weakness in Q4
Fourth-quarter shipments declined by 15,100 tons, or 9% sequentially, driven by seasonality, customers managing year-end inventory, logistics challenges, and a slower ramp following annual maintenance.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Year-over-Year Shipments Growth
Shipments improved 14% year over year in 2025, reflecting commercial recovery across specialty steel and multimetal solutions.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to a constructive 2026 with Q1 shipments expected to rise ~10% sequentially, an order book up >50% year‑over‑year, and lead times extending into mid‑Q2 for VARs and mid‑Q3 for seamless mechanical tubing; they expect sequential improvement in melt utilization and manufacturing costs to improve by roughly $10.0M in Q1, supporting first‑quarter adjusted EBITDA above Q4 levels and year‑over‑year adjusted EBITDA growth in each quarter of 2026. Full‑year capital expenditures are planned at about $70.0M (≈$35.0M government‑funded, company cash contribution $15.0–$20.0M), with Q1 being the heaviest CapEx quarter and a slight use of free cash flow in Q1 followed by positive quarterly FCF afterward; liquidity stands at $389.0M with cash & equivalents of $156.7M. Other specifics include expected average base price per ton to increase slightly YoY (annual price agreements cover ~70% of the order book), spot price increases effective in Q2/early Q3, anticipated 2026 U.S. bargaining pension contributions of ~$15.0–$18.0M (total 2026 pension contributions ~$27.0M, ~60% lower than 2025), a one‑time ~$2.0M wage payment in Q1 and 5% annual wage increases under the new USW contract, government funding received $85.6M to date (including $32.1M in 2025) with ~ $17.0M expected in 2026, and a target A&D sales run‑rate toward $250.0M by mid‑2026 contingent on downstream capacity ramps.Metallus Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
36
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.16B | 1.08B | 1.36B | 1.33B | 1.28B |
| Gross Profit | 95.10M | 97.70M | 186.50M | 126.70M | 220.00M |
| EBITDA | 60.30M | 58.70M | 153.30M | 156.00M | 246.00M |
| Net Income | -1.20M | 1.30M | 69.40M | 65.10M | 171.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.14B | 1.12B | 1.18B | 1.08B | 1.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 156.70M | 240.70M | 280.60M | 257.20M | 259.60M |
| Total Debt | 14.90M | 17.10M | 24.60M | 32.90M | 59.40M |
| Total Liabilities | 454.20M | 426.20M | 443.70M | 395.50M | 494.30M |
| Stockholders Equity | 686.00M | 690.50M | 731.60M | 686.50M | 664.60M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -93.00M | -24.00M | 73.70M | 107.40M | 184.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 16.00M | 40.30M | 125.30M | 134.50M | 196.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -75.20M | -10.80M | -49.90M | -21.70M | -4.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -25.20M | -68.90M | -51.90M | -114.60M | -35.30M |
Metallus Technical Analysis
Neutral
16.10
Price Trends
17.81
Negative
17.86
Negative
17.16
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.25
Negative
55.44
Neutral
55.09
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTUS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 16.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.75, below the 50-day MA of 17.81, and below the 200-day MA of 17.16, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MTUS.
Metallus Risk Analysis
Metallus disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Metallus reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Metallus Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $415.64M | 40.46 | 79.30% | 19.32% | -78.78% | -81.27% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | $671.86M | -599.17 | -0.17% | ― | -3.42% | -134.99% | |
58 Neutral | $123.04M | 11.73 | 11.34% | 0.75% | 8.72% | 43.14% | |
50 Neutral | $1.57B | 49.75 | 10.97% | 1.78% | -0.75% | -13.51% | |
48 Neutral | $123.11M | -5.07 | -6.29% | ― | -29.03% | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
MTUS
Metallus
16.10
3.37
26.47%
FRD
Friedman Industries
17.30
3.06
21.47%
ACNT
Ascent Industries
13.00
0.41
3.26%
MSB
Mesabi Shs
31.68
6.73
26.98%
WS
Worthington Steel, Inc.
30.96
6.83
28.29%
Metallus Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Metallus Forecasts Stronger 2026 Amid Labor Deal, Investments
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
On February 19, 2026, Metallus reported fourth-quarter 2025 net sales of $267.3 million, down 13% sequentially but up 11% year-on-year, with a net loss of $14.3 million as shutdown maintenance, lower volumes and weaker mix weighed on margins, thou...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.