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Metallus (MTUS)
NYSE:MTUS
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Metallus
(NYSE:MTUS)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$22.00
▲(13.05% Upside)
The score is held back mainly by weakened profitability and sharply negative free cash flow despite a strong balance sheet. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend, and the latest call adds optimism via improving 2026 shipment/cost guidance and strong liquidity, but recent Q4 weakness and execution risks keep the overall score moderate.
Positive Factors
Very low leverage and strong liquidity
Metallus's extremely low leverage and large liquidity buffer give it durable financial flexibility to fund capex, absorb operating cycles, and support buybacks or strategic investments without relying on external debt. This reduces refinancing risk and supports multi-quarter operational ramps and government-funded projects.
Large, growing order book and improving shipments
A >50% year‑over‑year order book expansion and higher shipments indicate stronger demand visibility and backlog conversion potential. This backlog provides multi‑quarter revenue visibility, supports meaningful production planning, and underpins expected sequential margin recovery if execution holds.
Government funding and targeted capex for capacity
Substantial government funding that offsets roughly half of planned capex materially lowers the company's cash burden and accelerates A&D capacity expansion. Funding-backed investments improve throughput and quality, raising long‑run revenue potential and reducing capital intensity on the firm's balance sheet.
Negative Factors
Compressed margins and weak profitability
Margins have materially compressed from prior cycle peaks, producing near‑zero to negative net margins. Persistently thin profitability reduces internal reinvestment capacity, weakens return on equity, and raises sensitivity to raw‑material and mix pressures, challenging sustainable earnings recovery absent structural cost or pricing gains.
Deeply negative free cash flow
A TTM free cash flow shortfall of -$93M reflects heavy near‑term cash absorption from capex, pension, or working capital. While liquidity cushions the gap, sustained negative FCF would erode cash balances over quarters and force higher dependence on external funding or aggressive cash allocation tradeoffs.
Execution and timing risk tied to A&D downstream ramps
Metallus's growth is partly contingent on downstream A&D OEM capacity ramps that are delayed, creating timing risk for converting backlog into revenue. Extended lead times also pressure fulfillment and customer expectations; missed ramps or slower OEM buildouts could defer revenue and compress expected returns on recent capacity investments.
Metallus (MTUS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$873.79M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)352.57K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.45
Revenue Growth-3.42%
EPS Growth-134.99%
CountryUS
Employees1,880
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.18
Shares Outstanding41,648,792
10 Day Avg. Volume501,724
30 Day Avg. Volume352,572
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.00
Price to Book (P/B)1.05
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio-7.73
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.68
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.51
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.21
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.69
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Metallus Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMetallus Inc. manufactures and sells alloy steel, and carbon and micro-alloy steel products in the United States and internationally. The company offers special bar quality (SBQ) bars, seamless mechanical tubes, precision steel components, and billets that are used in gears, hubs, axles, crankshafts and motor shafts, oil country drill pipes, bits and collars, bearing races and rolling elements, bushings, fuel injectors, wind energy shafts, anti-friction bearings, artillery and mortar bodies, and other applications. It also provides custom-make precision steel components. It offers its products and services to the automotive, energy, industrial equipment, mining, construction, rail, aerospace and defense, heavy truck, agriculture, and power generation sectors. The company was formerly known as TimkenSteel Corporation and changed its name to Metallus Inc. in February 2024. Metallus Inc. was founded in 1899 and is headquartered in Canton, Ohio.
How the Company Makes MoneyMetallus generates revenue through multiple streams, including the direct sale of its metal products to manufacturers in the aerospace, automotive, and energy sectors. The company also engages in custom fabrication services, allowing clients to order tailored solutions that meet specific requirements. Key revenue streams include contracts with large aerospace firms for high-performance alloys, recurring revenue from long-term supply agreements, and collaborations with research institutions for developing innovative materials. Significant partnerships with industry leaders enhance Metallus's market reach and provide access to new technologies, contributing to its overall earnings.
Metallus Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of material operational and financial improvements alongside near-term execution and cost challenges. Positives include strong year-over-year shipment growth (14%), a >50% expansion in the order book, nearly doubled bar sales, sustained cash generation excluding pension timing ($80M), robust liquidity ($389M), large government funding support, and targeted capital investments coming online in 2026. Offsetting these are a weak Q4 with a GAAP net loss ($14.3M), low Q4 adjusted EBITDA ($2.4M) and shipments down sequentially (−9%), higher shutdown and labor-related costs, compressed raw-material surcharge revenue (~$4M impact), extended lead times, and demand/timing risks tied to downstream A&D capacity ramp. Management provided constructive guidance for sequential improvement in Q1 (shipments +10%), manufacturing cost reduction (~$10M), pricing actions, and quarterly EBITDA growth through 2026, but execution against those plans will determine whether the positive indicators outweigh the recent shortfalls.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Year-over-Year Shipments Growth
Shipments improved 14% year over year in 2025, reflecting commercial recovery across specialty steel and multimetal solutions.
Strong Order Book Expansion
Order book increased more than 50% year over year, with lead indicators showing extended lead times that reflect higher demand.
Bar Sales Nearly Doubled
Bar sales totaled approximately $28,000,000 in 2025, almost doubling (≈100% increase) from 2024 driven by new aerospace & defense (A&D) and industrial customers.
Improved Safety Performance and Recognition
Zero serious injuries in 2025, a 35% reduction in days-away-or-restricted cases, an 11% improvement in injury frequency year over year, and receipt of the Safety Culture Improvement Award.
Solid Cash Generation (Excluding Pension Timing)
Operations generated $16,000,000 of operating cash flow in 2025; excluding pension contributions, operations produced $80,000,000 in cash—the second consecutive year above $80,000,000—demonstrating improved through-cycle cash generation.
Strong Liquidity and Cash Position
Cash and cash equivalents were $156,700,000 at year-end and total liquidity stood at $389,000,000 with no outstanding borrowings as of 12/31/2025.
Government Funding and Capital Investment Progress
Received $85,600,000 of government funding through December (including $32,100,000 in 2025) toward nearly $100,000,000 program; Q4 capital expenditures were $35,300,000 (≈$30,000,000 government-related) and 2026 planned CapEx ≈ $70,000,000 (≈$35,000,000 government-related).
Pension Contribution Outlook Improved
Full-year required pension contributions for 2026 are expected to be approximately $27,000,000, representing a nearly 60% reduction from 2025 total pension contribution expectations.
Shareholder-Return and Share Count Progress
Repurchased ~71,000 shares for $1,200,000 in Q4; $89,700,000 remains under repurchase authorization. Diluted shares outstanding have been reduced by 25% (≈13,500,000 shares) since 2021.
Operational Investments and Capacity Improvement
Completed ramp-up of new automated grinding line; Bloom reheat furnace and roller hearth furnace lit and on-track with commissioning and ramp expected in late Q1–Q2/early Q3 2026 to improve throughput and first-time quality.
Near-Term Performance and Pricing Actions
First-quarter shipments expected to increase ≈10% sequentially versus Q4; annual price agreements covering ~70% of order book substantially complete and average base price per ton anticipated to increase slightly year over year; spot price increases implemented for bar and seamless tubing.
Operational Cost Improvement Guidance
Manufacturing costs expected to improve sequentially by approximately $10,000,000 in Q1 2026 due to higher melt utilization and completion of shutdown activity; company expects adjusted EBITDA to be above Q4 levels in Q1 and to deliver year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth in each quarter of 2026.
Negative Updates
Sequential Shipments and Volume Weakness in Q4
Fourth-quarter shipments declined by 15,100 tons, or 9% sequentially, driven by seasonality, customers managing year-end inventory, logistics challenges, and a slower ramp following annual maintenance.
Q4 Revenue and Profitability Shortfall
Q4 net sales were $267,300,000, a sequential decrease of $38,600,000; GAAP net loss for the quarter was $14,300,000 (loss of $0.34 per diluted share) and adjusted net loss was $7,700,000 (loss of $0.18 per diluted share). Adjusted EBITDA was only $2,400,000 and was reported as approximately $2,400,000 below expectations.
Higher Shutdown Costs and Cost Headwinds
Manufacturing costs were negatively impacted by a $10,000,000 sequential increase in annual shutdown costs in Q4, plus lower fixed-cost leverage and approximately $4,000,000 less raw material surcharge revenue due to compressed scrap prices.
Shipments Missed Expectations
Shipments in Q4 were about 10,000 tons below internal expectations, contributing to the weak quarter and the EBITDA shortfall.
Extended Lead Times Creating Execution Pressure
Lead times extended into mid-Q2 for VARs and mid-Q3 for seamless mechanical tubing, reflecting high demand but also putting pressure on fulfillment and customer expectations.
Market and Demand Risks
Industrial markets remain soft and energy shipments were lower sequentially. Auto sales and production are expected to be slightly down; pricing pressure, interest rates, tight credit, and EV slowdown could negatively impact demand.
Dependency on A&D Downstream Ramp
A&D growth is strong but dependent on downstream munitions OEM capacity ramp-ups that are delayed (~1.5–2 years late), creating timing risk for realizing full demand and revenue from certain programs.
Near-Term Cash Usage and Cost Increases
Expect slight usage of free cash flow in Q1 2026 due to usual seasonality (pension and bonus funding) and higher labor costs from a new four-year union agreement (5% wage increases per year plus a one-time ~$2,000,000 payment in Q1).
Weather and Execution Delays on Capital Projects
Some weather-related delays impacted timing of capital project commissioning between late Q4 and early Q1, potentially affecting ramp schedules.
Company Guidance
Management guided to a constructive 2026 with Q1 shipments expected to rise ~10% sequentially, an order book up >50% year‑over‑year, and lead times extending into mid‑Q2 for VARs and mid‑Q3 for seamless mechanical tubing; they expect sequential improvement in melt utilization and manufacturing costs to improve by roughly $10.0M in Q1, supporting first‑quarter adjusted EBITDA above Q4 levels and year‑over‑year adjusted EBITDA growth in each quarter of 2026. Full‑year capital expenditures are planned at about $70.0M (≈$35.0M government‑funded, company cash contribution $15.0–$20.0M), with Q1 being the heaviest CapEx quarter and a slight use of free cash flow in Q1 followed by positive quarterly FCF afterward; liquidity stands at $389.0M with cash & equivalents of $156.7M. Other specifics include expected average base price per ton to increase slightly YoY (annual price agreements cover ~70% of the order book), spot price increases effective in Q2/early Q3, anticipated 2026 U.S. bargaining pension contributions of ~$15.0–$18.0M (total 2026 pension contributions ~$27.0M, ~60% lower than 2025), a one‑time ~$2.0M wage payment in Q1 and 5% annual wage increases under the new USW contract, government funding received $85.6M to date (including $32.1M in 2025) with ~ $17.0M expected in 2026, and a target A&D sales run‑rate toward $250.0M by mid‑2026 contingent on downstream capacity ramps.Metallus Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Mixed fundamentals: a very strong, low-leverage balance sheet (debt-to-equity ~0.02) offsets materially weaker profitability (TTM net margin ~-0.10%) and sharply deteriorated cash generation with deeply negative TTM free cash flow (-$93M).Income Statement
Performance has weakened materially versus the 2021–2023 cycle peak. Revenue is up modestly in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (+2.37%) after a sharp decline in 2024 (-20.43%), but profitability has compressed significantly: gross margin fell to ~8.2% in TTM from ~13.7% (2023) and ~17.1% (2021). Earnings are essentially breakeven to slightly negative (TTM net margin ~-0.10%), with very thin operating profitability despite positive EBITDA. Strength: the company proved it can generate strong profits in prior years. Weakness: current margin pressure and a swing to a small net loss in TTM raise questions on near-term earnings durability.44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Balance sheet remains a clear strength with very low leverage. Total debt is modest ($14.9M in TTM) versus equity ($686M), keeping debt-to-equity around ~0.02 in TTM (and consistently low across years). Equity and assets have been relatively stable, providing financial flexibility through a downcycle. The main weakness is returns: return on equity has fallen from strong levels in 2021–2023 to near-zero in 2024 and slightly negative in TTM, reflecting reduced profitability rather than balance-sheet stress.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation has deteriorated meaningfully. Operating cash flow dropped to $16M in TTM from $40.3M in 2024 and $125–197M in 2021–2023, and free cash flow is deeply negative in TTM (-$93M) after being negative in 2024 (-$24M) and strongly positive in 2021–2023. While TTM operating cash flow remains positive, it is small relative to the company’s scale, and the negative free cash flow suggests heavy investment and/or weaker working-capital dynamics that are not being funded by internal cash generation. Strength: operating cash flow is still positive. Weakness: free cash flow profile has turned sharply unfavorable.36
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.16B | 1.08B | 1.36B | 1.33B | 1.28B |
| Gross Profit | 95.10M | 97.70M | 186.50M | 126.70M | 220.00M |
| EBITDA | 1.10M | 58.70M | 153.30M | 156.00M | 246.00M |
| Net Income | -1.20M | 1.30M | 69.40M | 65.10M | 171.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.14B | 1.12B | 1.18B | 1.08B | 1.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 156.70M | 240.70M | 280.60M | 257.20M | 259.60M |
| Total Debt | 14.90M | 17.10M | 24.60M | 32.90M | 59.40M |
| Total Liabilities | 454.20M | 426.20M | 443.70M | 395.50M | 494.30M |
| Stockholders Equity | 686.00M | 690.50M | 731.60M | 686.50M | 664.60M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -93.00M | -24.00M | 73.70M | 107.40M | 184.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 16.00M | 40.30M | 125.30M | 134.50M | 196.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -75.20M | -10.80M | -49.90M | -21.70M | -4.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -25.20M | -68.90M | -51.90M | -114.60M | -35.30M |
Metallus Technical Analysis
Positive
19.46
Price Trends
19.33
Positive
18.10
Positive
16.69
Positive
Market Momentum
0.49
Positive
57.04
Neutral
63.46
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTUS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.46 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.58, above the 50-day MA of 19.33, and above the 200-day MA of 16.69, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.49 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MTUS.
Metallus Risk Analysis
Metallus disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Metallus reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Metallus Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $2.23B | 17.81 | 11.71% | 1.78% | -0.75% | -13.51% | |
69 Neutral | $436.37M | 25.36 | 29.57% | 19.32% | -78.78% | -81.27% | |
67 Neutral | $132.14M | 8.36 | 8.47% | 0.75% | 8.72% | 43.14% | |
64 Neutral | $165.29M | 186.64 | -3.84% | ― | -29.03% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | $873.79M | -104.29 | -1.18% | ― | -3.42% | -134.99% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
MTUS
Metallus
20.93
5.29
33.82%
FRD
Friedman Industries
18.24
1.57
9.42%
ACNT
Ascent Industries
17.32
6.35
57.89%
MSB
Mesabi Shs
33.04
5.86
21.54%
WS
Worthington Steel, Inc.
43.56
15.78
56.80%
Metallus Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Metallus Forecasts Stronger 2026 Amid Labor Deal, Investments
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
On February 19, 2026, Metallus reported fourth-quarter 2025 net sales of $267.3 million, down 13% sequentially but up 11% year-on-year, with a net loss of $14.3 million as shutdown maintenance, lower volumes and weaker mix weighed on margins, though shipments rose 14% versus the prior-year quarter. For full-year 2025, net sales climbed 7% to $1.2 billion on a 14% increase in ship tons and higher surcharge revenues, but the company posted a small net loss of $1.2 million and modestly lower adjusted EBITDA than in 2024 as pricing and mix offset operational gains.
Metallus ended 2025 with $156.7 million in cash, $389.2 million in total liquidity and $109.0 million of capital expenditures, including substantial U.S. government-funded projects that support capacity expansion for munitions-related production. The company repurchased 0.9 million shares and settled convertible notes equal to 3.8% of shares outstanding, secured a four-year labor agreement with the United Steelworkers on February 5, 2026, and signaled confidence in 2026 by forecasting sequentially improving adjusted EBITDA, higher shipments, better cost absorption after maintenance, and reduced required pension contributions alongside ongoing government-backed investment in key assets.
The most recent analyst rating on (MTUS) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metallus stock, see the MTUS Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.