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MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings
(NASDAQ:MTSI)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$335.00
▲(25.47% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:08/07/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (profitability recovery, improving growth, stronger balance sheet) and a bullish-leaning earnings narrative with strong guidance and bookings visibility. Offsetting factors are the very expensive valuation (high P/E with no dividend support) and mixed technical signals (negative MACD and key moving averages not fully regained).
Positive Factors
Strong cash & liquidity
MACOM's large cash balance and net cash position, combined with operating cash flow roughly 1.7x net income and strong free cash flow growth (26.7% TTM), provide durable financial flexibility. This supports continued R&D, capacity adds, and cushions cyclical semiconductor demand without urgent external financing.
Negative Factors
CW laser qualification risk
CW laser qualification is a pivotal product milestone; delays or failures would defer expected revenue, reduce returns on targeted CapEx, and concentrate downside risk in MACOM's photonics roadmap. Given the program's multi-year timing, this single-point technical risk can materially alter medium-term growth profiles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash & liquidity
MACOM's large cash balance and net cash position, combined with operating cash flow roughly 1.7x net income and strong free cash flow growth (26.7% TTM), provide durable financial flexibility. This supports continued R&D, capacity adds, and cushions cyclical semiconductor demand without urgent external financing.
Read all positive factors
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings (MTSI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$22.68B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.65M
Price to Earnings (P/E)93.7
Beta (1Y)1.64
Revenue Growth28.36%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees2,000
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySemiconductors
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.20
Shares Outstanding76,370,930
10 Day Avg. Volume1,262,305
30 Day Avg. Volume1,649,089
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.04
Price to Book (P/B)7.10
Price to Sales (P/S)9.75
P/FCF Ratio61.53
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$410.00Price Target Upside53.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)5.07
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.27B
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc., along with its affiliated entities, specializes in the design and production of sophisticated analog semiconductor solutions. These critical components are integral to both wireless and wired connectivity...
How the Company Makes Money
MACOM makes money primarily by selling semiconductor products (components and modules) to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and other customers that build communications, cloud/data center, industrial, and defense/aerospace systems. Revenue ...
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong operational and financial momentum: record bookings, accelerating revenue (Q3 revenue +18.4% sequential, +35.8% YoY), improving margins (gross margin +120 bps QoQ; operating margin materially higher YoY), robust cash balance and confident Q4 guidance. Data Center is the primary growth engine (large sequential and projected YoY increases), supported by ramping photodetectors and multi‑product demand across markets. The company is investing heavily in R&D and targeted capacity expansion (Indium Phosphide, MESC reactor, modest CapEx for potential CW laser ramp) while remaining disciplined on capital. Key risks highlighted include CW laser qualification uncertainty, rising working capital (inventory and AR), input cost inflation and longer lead times, tax rate increases in FY27, and uncertainty around CHIPS funding and several development programs that may or may not reach production. Overall, positive fundamentals and guidance outweigh the execution and market risks outlined.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Earnings
Q3 revenue of $342.2M, up 18.4% sequentially and 35.8% year-over-year. Adjusted net income $109.8M (up 30.2% sequential) and adjusted EPS $1.40 (vs. $1.09 in Q2). Company guided Q4 revenue $415M–$425M and adjusted EPS $1.97–$2.03.
Negative Updates
CW Laser Qualification Uncertainty
CW laser qualification is progressing (HTOL testing ongoing) but success not yet declared; production is contingent on meeting reliability and performance requirements with a potential production start targeted in late calendar 2027 (risk remains).
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Earnings
Q3 revenue of $342.2M, up 18.4% sequentially and 35.8% year-over-year. Adjusted net income $109.8M (up 30.2% sequential) and adjusted EPS $1.40 (vs. $1.09 in Q2). Company guided Q4 revenue $415M–$425M and adjusted EPS $1.97–$2.03.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
MACOM guided fiscal Q4 FY2026 revenue of $415–$425 million, adjusted gross margin of 60–61% and adjusted EPS of $1.97–$2.03 (based on 78.9 million fully diluted shares); management expects adjusted operating margin of ~37% in Q4 and a 3% adjusted tax rate for the quarter (with tax rate forecast to rise to mid‑single digits in FY2027). Sequential growth is expected to be ~35% in Data Center, ~20% in Industrial & Defense and low‑single‑digit in Telecom; the company also expects Q4 operating cash flow in excess of $100 million, FY2026 CapEx of $60–$65 million, ongoing quarterly gross‑margin improvements into FY2027 and a path toward breaching a 40% operating margin next year.MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.16B | 967.26M | 729.58M | 648.41M | 675.17M | 606.92M |
| Gross Profit | 658.39M | 531.44M | 371.40M | 362.06M | 380.59M | 310.94M |
| EBITDA | 348.27M | 39.79M | 163.91M | 179.69M | 304.65M | 133.49M |
| Net Income | 240.93M | -54.21M | 76.86M | 91.58M | 439.95M | 37.97M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.15B | 2.10B | 1.76B | 1.55B | 1.57B | 1.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 663.03M | 785.98M | 581.89M | 514.53M | 586.53M | 344.90M |
| Total Debt | 413.36M | 537.99M | 487.78M | 487.33M | 600.43M | 528.55M |
| Total Liabilities | 605.99M | 776.26M | 629.30M | 605.64M | 729.07M | 662.41M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.54B | 1.33B | 1.13B | 947.60M | 842.75M | 471.74M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 118.89M | 153.20M | 140.20M | 142.22M | 150.47M | 130.46M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 196.87M | 235.37M | 162.64M | 166.92M | 176.98M | 148.41M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -98.57M | -328.26M | -181.13M | 36.34M | -182.86M | -2.58M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -209.84M | 58.10M | -9.06M | -149.02M | -28.91M | -119.09M |
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
266.99
Price Trends
322.93
Negative
309.03
Negative
252.59
Positive
Market Momentum
-6.97
Negative
52.87
Neutral
81.56
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTSI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 266.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 273.23, below the 50-day MA of 322.93, and above the 200-day MA of 252.59, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -6.97 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.56 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MTSI.
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Risk Analysis
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $10.40B | 43.19 | 17.39% | ― | 17.17% | 3.84% | |
72 Outperform | $22.68B | 93.73 | 13.19% | ― | 28.36% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $18.23B | 476.82 | 4.93% | ― | 33.25% | 15.45% | |
68 Neutral | $12.23B | 45.14 | 21.21% | ― | 16.16% | 8.14% | |
63 Neutral | $10.35B | 35.22 | 5.04% | 4.72% | 0.06% | -22.93% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
61 Neutral | $8.56B | 22.23 | 11.39% | ― | -0.18% | 403.74% |
* Technology Sector Average
MTSI
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings
299.93
174.48
139.08%
LSCC
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62.79
99.15%
NVMI
Nova
395.95
124.45
45.84%
RMBS
Rambus
96.42
19.98
26.14%
SWKS
Skyworks Solutions
68.33
-1.06
-1.53%
QRVO
Qorvo
96.68
6.91
7.70%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.