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Vail Resorts (MTN)
NYSE:MTN
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Vail Resorts
(NYSE:MTN)
71Outperform
Positive Factors
Earnings
2Q25 EBITDA of $458m surpassed both internal and Street expectations.
Revenue
The increase in day passes could add approximately $95 million in high-margin revenue year over year.
Negative Factors
Visitation Trends
Visitation data shows a decline of 3% year-over-year, which is a concern for Vail Resorts.
Vail Resorts (MTN) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.19B
Dividend Yield5.37%
Average Volume (3M)574.86K
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.5
Beta (1Y)0.83
Revenue Growth3.57%
EPS Growth13.75%
CountryUS
Employees44,900
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength50
IndustryHotels, Lodging & Leisure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.82
Shares Outstanding37,438,354
10 Day Avg. Volume717,694
30 Day Avg. Volume574,858
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.64
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)1.99
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)5.10
P/FCF Ratio5.70
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$178.67Price Target Upside10.47% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
Vail Resorts Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionVail Resorts, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the operation of mountain resorts. It operates through the following segments: Mountain, Lodging, and Real Estate. The Mountain segment covers the operation of mountain resorts or ski areas, and related activities. The Lodging segment includes ownership of hotels, condominium management, Colorado resort ground transportation company, and mountain resort golf courses. The Real Estate segment holds real property at mountain resorts primarily throughout Summit and Eagle Counties in Colorado. The company was founded by Pete Seibert and Earl Eaton in March 1957 and is headquartered in Broomfield, CO.
How the Company Makes MoneyVail Resorts generates revenue primarily through its mountain segment, which includes lift ticket sales, ski school services, and equipment rentals. The company also earns significant income from its lodging segment, encompassing hotel stays, condominium rentals, and other hospitality services within and around its resort locations. Additionally, Vail Resorts capitalizes on retail and dining operations located on-site at its resorts. Season pass sales, such as the Epic Pass, provide a consistent revenue stream and help stabilize earnings by encouraging repeat visits and customer loyalty. Strategic acquisitions and partnerships with other ski areas and related businesses further enhance Vail Resorts' revenue potential by expanding its portfolio and market reach.
Vail Resorts Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Vail Resorts displays a balanced financial position with strong operational efficiency and cash flow management. However, the high leverage and stagnant revenue growth rate pose potential risks. Strength in profitability margins and cash flow ratios offsets some of the concerns associated with the debt levels and low equity ratio.Income Statement
Vail Resorts shows a stable financial performance with a gross profit margin of 37.7% and a net profit margin of 8.1% for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The EBIT margin stands at 18.7% and EBITDA margin at 28.9%, indicating a strong operational efficiency. However, the revenue growth rate is stagnant, with a slight decrease from the previous periods, which could pose a challenge for future growth.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio of 0.65, suggesting significant leverage. However, a return on equity (ROE) of 52.5% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) indicates efficient management of equity capital. The equity ratio is low at 7.9%, which indicates a higher reliance on debt financing and potential risk if market conditions worsen.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Vail Resorts has demonstrated strong cash flow management with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.32, reflecting robust cash generation relative to accounting income. Although the free cash flow decreased from the previous period, the company maintains a positive free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.34, indicating healthy cash flow relative to profits.70
Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 | Sep 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 2.89B | 2.89B | 2.89B | 2.53B | 1.91B | 1.96B | Gross Profit |
| 1.09B | 1.23B | 1.22B | 1.18B | 830.04M | 776.02M | EBIT |
| 541.09M | 491.43M | 505.10M | 428.56M | 261.02M | 223.39M | EBITDA |
| 834.73M | 783.43M | 831.66M | 831.93M | 533.05M | 500.42M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 233.08M | 230.41M | 268.15M | 347.92M | 127.85M | 98.83M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 728.86M | 322.83M | 562.98M | 1.11B | 1.24B | 390.98M | Total Assets |
| 5.76B | 5.70B | 5.95B | 6.32B | 6.25B | 5.24B | Total Debt |
| 3.01B | 3.04B | 3.03B | 2.94B | 3.08B | 2.71B | Net Debt |
| 2.28B | 2.72B | 2.46B | 1.84B | 1.83B | 2.32B | Total Liabilities |
| 4.83B | 4.66B | 4.61B | 4.47B | 4.42B | 3.71B | Stockholders Equity |
| 633.03M | 723.54M | 1.00B | 1.61B | 1.59B | 1.32B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 311.86M | 375.58M | 324.65M | 517.68M | 410.15M | 222.62M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 540.70M | 586.77M | 639.56M | 710.50M | 525.25M | 394.95M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -317.64M | -241.07M | -273.17M | -347.92M | -103.33M | -492.74M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -553.48M | -574.79M | -915.71M | -493.14M | 434.66M | 376.23M |
Vail Resorts Technical Analysis
Neutral
161.74
Price Trends
168.85
Negative
173.26
Negative
173.98
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.55
Negative
49.42
Neutral
56.13
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 161.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 159.40, below the 50-day MA of 168.85, and below the 200-day MA of 173.98, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.55 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MTN.
Vail Resorts Risk Analysis
Vail Resorts disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vail Resorts reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vail Resorts Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $43.74B | 30.05 | -19.43% | 1.74% | 6.68% | -7.09% | |
74 Outperform | $176.98B | 31.79 | 5.54% | 0.97% | 3.97% | 89.53% | |
71 Outperform | $6.19B | 22.52 | 38.12% | 5.37% | 3.57% | 13.75% | |
66 Neutral | $395.64M | 81.33 | 1.73% | 0.57% | -1.53% | -80.10% | |
59 Neutral | $12.41B | 10.34 | 1.32% | 3.61% | 1.65% | -18.04% | |
55 Neutral | $7.88B | 46.40 | -79.88% | ― | 10.30% | 23.45% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
MTN
Vail Resorts
161.74
-49.57
-23.46%
RICK
RCI Hospitality Holdings
44.30
-10.97
-19.85%
DIS
Walt Disney
98.76
-12.73
-11.42%
YUM
Yum! Brands
154.40
18.70
13.78%
PLNT
Planet Fitness
93.50
30.75
49.00%
FUN
Six Flags Entertainment Corporation
47.04
4.23
9.88%
Vail Resorts Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Mar 10, 2025 | % Change Since: 5.31% | Next Earnings Date: Jun 5, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mix of positive financial growth and strategic progress, such as EBITDA growth and liquidity position. However, challenges like the decline in visitation and specific issues like the Park City strike present areas of concern. The company remains optimistic about future improvements and strategic plans, despite current operational challenges.Highlights
EBITDA Growth
Resort reported EBITDA increased by 8% compared to the prior year, indicating strong execution by teams across all Mountain Resorts.
Net Income Increase
Net income attributable to Vail Resorts was $245.5 million, or $6.56 per diluted share, compared to $219.3 million, or $5.76 per diluted share, in the same period in the prior year.
Resource Efficiency Transformation Plan on Track
Vail Resorts is on track to achieve its two-year Resource Efficiency Transformation Plan, aiming for $100 million in annualized cost efficiencies by the end of fiscal 2026.
Strong Liquidity Position
As of January 31, 2025, the company's total liquidity was approximately $1.7 billion, including $488 million of cash on hand.
Dividend and Share Repurchases
Declared a quarterly cash dividend of $2.22 per share and repurchased approximately 0.1 million shares for $20 million.
Lowlights
Visitation Decline
Total skier visits were down 2.5% compared to the previous year, impacted by industry demand normalization and shifts in guest visitation patterns.
Retail and Rental Revenue Decline
Combined retail and rental revenue for North American Resort and ski area locations was down 2.9% compared to the prior year period.
Park City Union Strike Impact
The 13-day union strike at Park City Mountain negatively affected guest experiences, which the company acknowledged and addressed with credits for affected guests.
Destination Visitation Lag
Destination guest visitation at Western North American destination Mountain Resorts was below prior year levels due to shifts in historical visitation patterns.
Company Guidance
During the Vail Resorts Fiscal Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported an 8% growth in resort reported EBITDA compared to the previous year, reaching $459.7 million for the quarter. This figure included $2.9 million in one-time costs related to the Resource Efficiency Transformation Plan and $0.1 million in acquisition and integration-related expenses. Net income attributable to Vail Resorts increased to $245.5 million, or $6.56 per diluted share, from $219.3 million, or $5.76 per diluted share, in the previous year. Season-to-date, total skier visits declined by 2.5% compared to the same period in fiscal 2024, while total lift ticket revenue grew by 4.1%. Ancillary revenue saw mixed results, with ski school and dining revenue up 3% and 3.1%, respectively, and combined retail and rental revenue down 2.9%. The company maintained its fiscal 2025 resort reported EBITDA guidance midpoint, excluding a $7 million negative impact from foreign currency changes, and expects net income for the full fiscal year to range between $257 million and $309 million. Additionally, Vail Resorts announced a quarterly cash dividend of $2.22 per share.Vail Resorts Corporate Events
Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Vail Resorts Enhances Credit and Manages Debt Effectively
Positive
Jan 29, 2025
On January 27, 2025, Vail Resorts, Inc. announced a significant financial maneuver involving an amendment to its credit agreement, which increases its revolving credit loan commitments by $100 million and introduces a $450 million incremental term loan facility. This move aims to refinance its Convertible Senior Notes due in January 2026. Additionally, on January 28, 2025, Vail Resorts entered into agreements to repurchase approximately $50 million of its Convertible Senior Notes at a 4% discount, with the repurchase expected to close on January 30, 2025. These financial steps are poised to strengthen the company’s fiscal positioning and manage its debt obligations effectively.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Vail Resorts Reports Mixed Ski Season Metrics
Neutral
Jan 16, 2025
On January 16, 2025, Vail Resorts reported ski season metrics up to January 5, 2025, showing a 0.3% decrease in skier visits but a 4.5% increase in lift ticket revenue compared to the previous year. Despite a strong early season and improved weather conditions, challenges included a shift in guest visitation patterns and a previous patrol union strike, though an agreement has now been reached with the union.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.