Vail Resorts (MTN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.82B
• Dividend Yield: 6.27%
• Average Volume (3M): 848.95K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 5.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.63
• Revenue Growth: 3.06%
• EPS Growth: 12.82%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,600
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
• EPS (TTM): 5.87
• Shares Outstanding: 35,633,053
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 958,621
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 848,952
• PEG Ratio: 0.83
• Price to Book (P/B): 13.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.88
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.46
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.99
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.63
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.76
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.41
• 1Y Price Target: $165.45
• Price Target Upside: 22.27% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 5.27
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.89B

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $137.00 ▲(1.25% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/10/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/10/26

The score is held back primarily by elevated leverage and weakening free cash flow alongside slightly declining revenue, despite solid operating margins. Technicals also detract as the stock trades below key moving averages with negative MACD. Offsetting factors include a high dividend yield and a generally balanced earnings outlook with reiterated guidance and efficiency initiatives.

Positive Factors

Diversified premier resort portfolio

Owning and operating a broad set of iconic destination and regional resorts gives Vail durable scale, brand strength and cross-selling opportunities across lodging, dining and retail. Geographic and product diversity supports guest loyalty, marketing efficiency and resilience versus single-asset operators.

Season pass strategy and recurring revenue

Multi-resort pass products create predictable, advance-paid revenue, lock in customer lifetime value and boost ancillary spend. That advance-commitment model smooths seasonal volatility, improves cash flow timing and enhances pricing power through differentiated pass tiers and renewals.

Solid operating margin profile

Sustained high gross and EBITDA margins indicate structural pricing power and operating leverage in resort operations. Strong margins provide capacity to reinvest in guest experience, fund maintenance capex and absorb periodic revenue swings while supporting long-term profitability.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage and equity erosion

Very high leverage and a reduced equity cushion materially increase financial risk and limit strategic flexibility. Interest and covenant pressures can constrain capital allocation, reduce ability to pursue M&A or fund capex, and amplify downside in weaker visitation or economic stress.

Weakening free cash flow

Declining free cash flow reduces the company's ability to pay down debt, sustain buybacks, or increase reinvestment. If the downward trend persists it will tighten liquidity headroom, slow deleveraging, and force tougher capital allocation choices that could impact long-term growth initiatives.

Structural weather sensitivity and revenue volatility

Reliance on cold-season snowfall makes revenue inherently variable; severe early-season weather can materially depress skier visits and ancillary spend. Even with geographic diversification, weather-driven volatility forces higher marketing, dynamic pricing and contingency spending, pressuring margins and cash flow in weak seasons.

Vail Resorts Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vail Resorts, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates mountain resorts and urban ski areas in the United States. It operates through three segments: Mountain, Lodging, and Real Estate. The Mountain segment operates 37 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas. This segment is also involved in the ancillary activities, including ski school, dining, and retail/rental operations, as well as real estate brokerage activities. The Lodging segment owns and/or manages various luxury hotels and condominiums, and other lodging properties under the RockResorts brand; various condominiums located in proximity to the company's mountain resorts; destination resorts; and golf courses, as well as offers resort ground transportation services. This segment operates owned and managed hotel and condominium units. The Real Estate segment owns, develops, and sells real estate properties. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Broomfield, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Vail Resorts generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income is from lift ticket sales, which provide access to the ski slopes and are a significant driver of earnings during the winter season. The company also earns revenue from ski school lessons, equipment rentals, and retail sales within its resorts. Additionally, Vail Resorts operates lodging facilities, generating income from accommodations, dining, and event services. The company has embraced a season pass strategy, offering multi-resort passes that encourage repeat visits and provide a stable revenue base. Furthermore, Vail Resorts benefits from strategic partnerships with travel and tourism companies, as well as sponsorships that enhance its brand visibility and market reach.

Vail Resorts Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating profitability is solid (TTM gross margin ~42.8%, operating margin ~19.0%, EBITDA margin ~29.0%), but revenue is slightly down (~-1.8% YoY) and net margin has compressed (~8.9% vs. ~13.8% in 2022). The biggest drag is balance-sheet risk: debt-to-equity is extremely elevated (TTM ~21.9x) due to a reduced equity base, while free cash flow is positive (~$286M) but declining (~-18.8%).

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is essentially flat-to-down (about -1.8% vs. the prior year), continuing a choppy top-line pattern after the post-2022 rebound. Profitability remains solid for the sector, with TTM gross margin ~42.8%, operating margin ~19.0%, and EBITDA margin ~29.0%, broadly consistent with recent years. However, net margin has compressed versus the 2022 peak (TTM ~8.9% vs. ~13.8% in 2022), pointing to higher costs, interest burden, or other below-the-line pressures.

Balance Sheet

Leverage and equity erosion are the key concerns. Annual data shows debt-to-equity rising materially from ~1.8x (2022) to ~8.1x (2025), and the TTM snapshot is extremely elevated (~21.9x), driven by a sharply lower equity base. While returns on equity are high (TTM ~52%), that strength is heavily amplified by the reduced equity cushion, which increases financial risk and limits flexibility if operating conditions soften.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive but weakening. TTM operating cash flow is ~$522M and free cash flow is ~$286M, but free cash flow is down sharply (TTM growth about -18.8%). Cash conversion is moderate: free cash flow is ~60% of net income in TTM (roughly in line with recent years), suggesting earnings are reasonably supported by cash, though the decline in free cash flow reduces capacity for debt paydown, buybacks, or reinvestment.

Breakdown	TTM	Jul 2025	Jul 2024	Jul 2023	Jul 2022	Jul 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.92B	2.96B	2.89B	2.89B	2.53B	1.91B
Gross Profit	1.73B	1.27B	1.23B	1.22B	1.18B	830.04M
EBITDA	1.08B	870.46M	783.43M	795.04M	857.74M	529.17M
Net Income	230.55M	280.00M	231.10M	265.82M	347.92M	127.85M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.60B	5.78B	5.70B	5.95B	6.32B	6.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	384.74M	440.29M	322.83M	562.98M	1.11B	1.24B
Total Debt	284.90M	3.44B	3.04B	3.03B	2.94B	3.08B
Total Liabilities	4.96B	5.02B	4.66B	4.61B	4.47B	4.42B
Stockholders Equity	301.82M	424.50M	723.54M	1.00B	1.61B	1.59B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	286.29M	319.68M	375.58M	324.65M	517.68M	410.15M
Operating Cash Flow	522.04M	554.87M	586.77M	639.56M	710.50M	525.25M
Investing Cash Flow	-222.48M	-204.50M	-241.07M	-273.17M	-347.92M	-103.33M
Financing Cash Flow	-433.06M	-242.65M	-574.79M	-915.71M	-493.14M	434.66M

Vail Resorts Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 135.31
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 135.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 138.21, below the 50-day MA of 137.46, and below the 200-day MA of 145.44, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MTN.

Vail Resorts Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BYD	77 Outperform	$6.14B	3.78	91.87%	0.84%	5.91%	336.91%
MGM	62 Neutral	$9.29B	46.86	7.55%	―	0.05%	-94.07%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
CHDN	59 Neutral	$5.86B	21.23	36.68%	0.38%	7.97%	-0.14%
MTN	54 Neutral	$4.82B	5.69	51.86%	6.27%	3.06%	12.82%
WYNN	54 Neutral	$10.30B	38.12	-90.44%	0.80%	-0.26%	-44.45%
MLCO	44 Neutral	$2.15B	12.19	-13.94%	―	11.32%	―

Vail Resorts Corporate Events

Vail Resorts Amends Credit Agreement, Extends Loan Maturities

On February 9, 2026, Vail Holdings, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Vail Resorts, and its subsidiaries amended and restated their existing credit agreement with a syndicate of lenders led by Bank of America. The revision consolidates the prior term loan and delayed draw term loan into a new $1.275 billion senior term loan facility, extending both revolver and term loan maturities to the earlier of five years from closing or 90 days before the company’s 2030 senior notes mature.

The Tenth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement also lowers borrowing costs by adjusting the leverage-based pricing grid and removing a 0.10% credit spread adjustment tied to certain reference rate loans. The changes are expected to strengthen Vail Resorts’ capital structure by lengthening debt maturities and reducing interest expense, which could provide greater financial flexibility for operations and investment across its resort portfolio.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTN) stock is a Sell with a $140.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vail Resorts stock, see the MTN Stock Forecast page.

Vail Resorts Reports Weaker Early-Season Metrics, Cuts Outlook

On January 15, 2026, Vail Resorts reported season‑to‑date ski metrics for its North American destination resorts and regional ski areas for the period ended January 4, 2026, showing a 20% decline in skier visits compared with the prior-year period, along with drops of 1.8% in lift revenue, 14.9% in ski school revenue, 15.9% in dining revenue and 6% in retail/rental revenue. Chief Executive Rob Katz attributed the weaker performance to one of the worst early season snowfall patterns in over 30 years in the western U.S., which sharply limited available terrain—particularly in the Rockies and Tahoe—although stronger early conditions in the eastern U.S. partially offset the impact, and he indicated that, given these conditions, the company now expects full‑year Resort Reported EBITDA to come in just below the low end of its previously issued fiscal 2026 guidance range, underscoring how weather volatility is pressuring near-term financial performance while reinforcing the strategic importance of Vail’s geographically diversified resort network and advance commitment model for guests and shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTN) stock is a Buy with a $157.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vail Resorts stock, see the MTN Stock Forecast page.