Medifast (MED) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $160.69M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 248.76K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 66.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.41
• Revenue Growth: -39.47%
• EPS Growth: -110.28%
• Country: US
• Employees: 504
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 56
• Industry: Personal Products & Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 10,991,021
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 330,618
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 248,761
• PEG Ratio: 0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.73
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.53
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.49
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.03
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.19
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.94
• 1Y Price Target: $16.50
• Price Target Upside: 12.86% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $14.00 ▼(-4.24%Downside)

Medifast's overall stock score reflects substantial financial and operational challenges, with declining revenues, negative earnings, and a mixed technical outlook. While the strong balance sheet and cash position provide some stability, significant efforts are needed to reverse revenue declines and improve profitability.

Medifast Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Medifast, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes weight loss, weight management, healthy living products, and other consumable health and nutritional products in the United States and the Asia-Pacific. The company offers bars, bites, pretzels, puffs, cereal crunch, drinks, hearty choices, oatmeal, pancakes, pudding, soft serves, shakes, smoothies, soft bakes, and soups under the OPTAVIA, Optimal Health by Take Shape for Life, and Flavors of Home brands. It markets its products through point-of-sale transactions over ecommerce platform. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland.

How the Company Makes Money

Medifast makes money primarily through the sale of its meal replacement products and dietary supplements, which are part of its OPTAVIA program. The company employs a direct-to-consumer sales model supported by a network of independent OPTAVIA Coaches who provide personalized guidance and support to customers. These coaches earn commissions on product sales, driving Medifast's revenue through a combination of product sales and coaching services. Key revenue streams include the sale of packaged meal plans, snacks, and nutritional supplements. Medifast's business model is heavily reliant on its community of coaches, who play a crucial role in customer acquisition and retention. The company's earnings are further supported by its scalable supply chain and manufacturing operations, which help maintain cost efficiency and product availability.

Medifast Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Medifast faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues and negative earnings, but its strong balance sheet with low leverage provides stability. The income statement highlights negative net profit margins and a sharp revenue decline, though the gross profit margin remains solid. Cash flow issues reflect broader profitability concerns, but the company maintains a positive free cash flow.

Income Statement

The income statement reflects a challenging period for Medifast, with the TTM showing a decline in revenue and a negative EBIT and net income, indicating operational challenges. The TTM gross profit margin is 73.9%, which is solid, but the negative net profit margin of -1.3% highlights profitability concerns. The revenue growth rate from 2023 to the TTM is -49.3%, a significant decrease, raising concerns about demand or market conditions. The EBIT margin has turned negative to -1.2%, reflecting operational inefficiencies. EBITDA margin remains slightly positive at 0.6%, suggesting some ability to cover fixed costs, but overall, profitability is under pressure.

Balance Sheet

Medifast's balance sheet shows a strong equity base with an equity ratio of 75.3% and a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07, indicating financial stability and low leverage. The return on equity has turned negative in the TTM, which is concerning, but the company's strong equity position provides a cushion. The decrease in total assets and stockholders' equity from 2023 to TTM suggests a period of asset reduction or potential write-downs. Despite these challenges, the company's low leverage mitigates risk.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow decreased slightly in the TTM compared to the previous year, with the free cash flow to net income ratio indicating cash generation challenges due to negative net income. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is not meaningful due to the negative net income. Overall, while Medifast maintains positive free cash flow and a prudent approach to capital expenditures, the cash flow situation reflects the broader profitability issues seen in the income statement.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	543.45M	602.46M	1.07B	1.60B	1.53B	934.84M
Gross Profit	401.58M	444.62M	775.85M	1.14B	1.13B	697.82M
EBITDA	6.40M	15.59M	139.51M	201.84M	223.05M	134.16M
Net Income	-7.00M	2.09M	99.42M	143.57M	164.03M	102.86M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	280.01M	284.21M	309.91M	316.21M	398.33M	276.08M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	164.59M	162.34M	150.04M	87.69M	109.54M	174.47M
Total Debt	14.61M	16.13M	22.01M	26.05M	32.54M	11.16M
Total Liabilities	69.05M	74.10M	108.43M	161.17M	195.85M	118.84M
Stockholders Equity	210.96M	210.11M	201.48M	155.04M	202.47M	157.25M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	13.46M	17.02M	141.17M	177.89M	60.34M	139.31M
Operating Cash Flow	20.60M	24.48M	147.66M	194.57M	94.55M	145.20M
Investing Cash Flow	-25.80M	-26.52M	-61.05M	-11.41M	-29.06M	-1.28M
Financing Cash Flow	-587.00K	-1.51M	-79.79M	-199.58M	-125.13M	-57.14M

Medifast Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 14.62
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MED, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.54, above the 50-day MA of 13.30, and below the 200-day MA of 15.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MED.

Medifast Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MRM	64 Neutral	$11.22M	8.18	23.48%	―	12.93%	66.81%
Sector *	61 Neutral	AU$2.85B	25.94	5.01%	5.14%	2.63%	-29.95%
MED	58 Neutral	$160.69M	66.49	-3.32%	―	-39.47%	-110.28%
WGHTQ	40 Underperform	$24.65M	―		―	-10.33%	79.59%

Medifast Corporate Events

Medifast Stockholders Approve Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

On June 18, 2025, Medifast held its Annual Meeting where stockholders voted on several proposals. All directors nominated for re-election were successfully re-elected to the Board. The stockholders also ratified the appointment of RSM US LLP as the Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. Additionally, the compensation of the company’s named executive officers was approved on an advisory basis, and the Amended 2012 Plan was also approved.

The most recent analyst rating on (MED) stock is a Hold with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medifast stock, see the MED Stock Forecast page.