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Medifast (MED)
:MED
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Medifast
(NYSE:MED)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$11.50
▼(-9.59% Downside)
Medifast's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial challenges, including declining revenue and cash flow issues. The technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, while the valuation suggests the stock is overvalued. The earnings call provides some optimism with strategic shifts and new product launches, but significant revenue declines and a decrease in active coaches remain concerns.
Medifast (MED) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$129.59M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)160.56K
Price to Earnings (P/E)557.4
Beta (1Y)0.39
Revenue Growth-36.29%
EPS Growth-96.65%
CountryUS
Employees504
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPersonal Products & Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.21
Shares Outstanding10,991,273
10 Day Avg. Volume189,869
30 Day Avg. Volume160,562
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.94
Price to Book (P/B)0.92
Price to Sales (P/S)0.32
P/FCF Ratio11.31
Enterprise Value/Market Cap-0.08
Enterprise Value/Revenue-0.03
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-0.04
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-1.14
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.9
Revenue Forecast (FY)$384.80M
Medifast Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMedifast, Inc. is a health and wellness company that specializes in weight management and nutrition products. Founded in 1980 and headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland, Medifast operates primarily through its flagship brand, OPTAVIA, which offers meal plans, dietary supplements, and weight loss programs tailored to individual health goals. The company also provides a range of other nutritional products, including shakes, bars, and snacks, designed to support a healthy lifestyle. Medifast serves customers through a combination of direct sales and a network of independent health coaches, promoting personalized nutrition and wellness solutions.
How the Company Makes MoneyMedifast generates revenue through multiple channels, primarily by selling its meal replacement products and nutritional supplements directly to consumers via its OPTAVIA platform. The company has a unique revenue model that includes the sale of products through a network of independent health coaches who earn commissions on product sales and can build their own client bases. This multi-level marketing approach not only drives product sales but also encourages customer loyalty and community engagement. Additionally, Medifast benefits from subscription services and recurring orders, allowing for consistent revenue flow. Strategic partnerships with healthcare providers and wellness organizations also contribute to Medifast's earnings by expanding its reach and enhancing brand credibility.
Medifast Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 03, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a balanced view of challenges and progress. While Medifast highlighted significant achievements in clinical research and a strong financial position, the company also faced substantial revenue declines and a decrease in active coaches. Despite the challenges, the company is optimistic about new product launches and strategic programs to stabilize and grow in the future.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Clinical Research Findings
Medifast announced clinical research findings demonstrating that their program retains 98% of lean mass, reduces visceral fat by 14%, and improves body composition while losing weight.
Strong Financial Position
Medifast maintains a strong balance sheet with $173.5 million in cash, cash equivalents, and investments, and no interest-bearing debt.
New Product Line Announcement
A new product line using metabolic synchronization science and next-generation ingredients for metabolic enhancement is expected to launch next year.
Initial Positive Response to Premier+ Program
The Premier+ pricing and auto ship program has shown an uptick in baseline client retention beyond the first month.
Negative Updates
Significant Revenue Decline
Revenue for the third quarter was $89.4 million, a decrease of 36.2% compared to the prior year due to fewer active earning OPTAVIA coaches.
Decrease in Active Coaches
The number of active earning OPTAVIA coaches decreased by 35% from the third quarter of 2024.
Net Loss Reported
Net loss in the third quarter of 2025 was $2.3 million or $0.21 loss per diluted share compared to net income of $1.1 million or $0.10 per share in the year-earlier period.
Uncertain Future Revenue
Fourth quarter revenue is expected to range from $65 million to $80 million, indicating continued pressure on revenue.
Company Guidance
During the Medifast Third Quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance reflecting a strategic pivot towards addressing metabolic health rather than just weight loss. Revenue for the quarter was reported at $89 million, aligning with the high end of guidance, while EPS was within the projected range. The company highlighted the retention of 98% of lean mass in clients on their program over 16 weeks, alongside a 14% reduction in visceral fat. Despite a 36.2% decline in revenue year-over-year, Medifast emphasized the stability in active coach productivity, which showed only a 2% year-over-year decline to $4,585. Looking forward, Medifast expects fourth-quarter revenue to range from $65 million to $80 million, with a loss per share between $0.70 and $1.25. The company is also preparing to introduce a new product line in 2026, leveraging their metabolic synchronization science to further differentiate in the market.Medifast Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Medifast faces financial headwinds with declining revenue and profitability, as well as cash flow challenges. Despite a strong gross profit margin and low leverage, the company needs to address operational inefficiencies and improve cash flow management to enhance financial stability.Income Statement
Medifast's income statement shows declining revenue with a negative growth rate of -11.59% in the TTM period. Gross profit margin remains strong at 73.84%, but net profit margin is low at 0.76%, indicating profitability challenges. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have significantly decreased, reflecting operational inefficiencies.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is relatively stable with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.06, suggesting low leverage. However, return on equity has decreased to 1.72%, indicating reduced profitability from equity. The equity ratio is not provided, but overall, the company maintains a conservative financial structure.65
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals significant challenges, with a free cash flow growth rate of -117.99% in the TTM period. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.09, and free cash flow to net income is negative, indicating cash flow issues and potential liquidity concerns.30
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 429.69M | 602.46M | 1.07B | 1.60B | 1.53B | 934.84M |
| Gross Profit | 311.27M | 444.62M | 775.85M | 1.14B | 1.13B | 697.82M |
| EBITDA | 9.69M | 15.59M | 139.51M | 195.74M | 223.05M | 138.47M |
| Net Income | 248.00K | 2.09M | 99.42M | 143.57M | 164.03M | 102.86M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 268.21M | 284.21M | 309.91M | 316.21M | 398.33M | 276.08M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 173.51M | 162.34M | 150.04M | 87.69M | 109.54M | 174.47M |
| Total Debt | 12.26M | 16.13M | 22.01M | 26.05M | 32.54M | 11.16M |
| Total Liabilities | 53.50M | 74.10M | 108.43M | 161.17M | 195.85M | 118.84M |
| Stockholders Equity | 214.71M | 210.11M | 201.48M | 155.04M | 202.47M | 157.25M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 646.00K | 17.02M | 141.17M | 177.89M | 60.34M | 139.31M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 7.19M | 24.48M | 147.66M | 194.57M | 94.55M | 145.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -22.41M | -26.52M | -61.05M | -11.41M | -29.06M | -1.28M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -566.00K | -1.51M | -79.79M | -199.58M | -125.13M | -57.14M |
Medifast Technical Analysis
Negative
12.72
Price Trends
13.27
Negative
13.59
Negative
13.69
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.45
Positive
29.93
Positive
38.30
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MED, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.36, below the 50-day MA of 13.27, and below the 200-day MA of 13.69, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.45 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.93 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MED.
Medifast Risk Analysis
Medifast disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Medifast reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Medifast Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
MED
Medifast
11.65
-7.92
-40.47%
MRM
MEDIROM Healthcare Technologies
2.07
-0.57
-21.59%
WW
WW International, Inc.
28.41
-1.79
-5.93%
Medifast Corporate Events
Medifast Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results Amid Strategic Shift
Nov 4, 2025
Medifast, a health and wellness company, is recognized for its science-backed, coach-guided lifestyle system aimed at improving metabolic health through personalized plans and scientifically developed products.
Medifast’s Earnings Call: Challenges and Optimism
Aug 6, 2025
Medifast’s recent earnings call painted a picture of a challenging quarter, marked by significant declines in revenue and a reduction in active coaches. Despite these hurdles, the company remains financially robust and has rolled out new initiatives aimed at bolstering client retention and coach growth, offering a glimmer of hope for future performance.
Medifast Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results
Aug 5, 2025
Medifast, Inc. is a health and wellness company known for its OPTAVIA® lifestyle solution, which offers a coach-guided approach to weight management and healthy living. The company operates in the health sector, focusing on habit-based lifestyle changes supported by scientific research.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.