Medifast (MED) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $109.91M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 236.76K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.51
• Revenue Growth: -36.29%
• EPS Growth: -96.65%
• Country: US
• Employees: 504
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Personal Products & Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.55
• Shares Outstanding: 10,991,273
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 310,569
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 236,765
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.59
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.30
• P/FCF Ratio: 93.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.35
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.10
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.14
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 26.47
• 1Y Price Target: $12.00
• Price Target Upside: 9.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): -1.61
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $337.50M

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.00 ▼(-8.84% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/21/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/21/26

The score is held down primarily by deteriorating financial performance (multi-year revenue declines, a 2025 loss, and weakened operating/free cash flow) and bearish technical signals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting factors include a strong, low-debt balance sheet and earnings-call actions focused on restructuring savings and a path to improved profitability starting late 2026, with a small additional boost from the activist-driven governance changes.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet and liquidity

A strong cash position and near-zero leverage provide durable financial flexibility during the turnaround. This cushion supports product development, restructuring and marketing investment without immediate financing risk, lowering solvency pressure while management executes the multi-quarter recovery plan.

Clinically supported metabolic-health differentiation

Clinical evidence backing the metabolic synchronization positioning strengthens product differentiation versus commoditized diet offerings. Durable scientific validation can improve retention, enable premium pricing or reimbursement pathways, and underpins the new product launch that management expects to drive profitability improvements long-term.

Early improvement in coach productivity and field engagement

Rising revenue per coach and stronger leadership metrics are meaningful unit-economics signs. If sustained, higher coach productivity can offset a smaller field, boost revenue per customer, and accelerate scalable growth as coach recruitment and retention recover, providing a multi-month runway for top-line stabilization.

Negative Factors

Multi-year revenue decline and profitability deterioration

Persistent top-line declines and the shift from double-digit net margins to a 2025 loss indicate structural demand erosion and lost operating leverage. Recovering margin requires regaining volume or permanently higher prices/efficiency; either path demands sustained execution over many quarters and creates risk to returning to prior profitability levels.

Material weakening of cash generation and free cash flow

Sharp cash-flow compression reduces internal funding for marketing, coach incentives and the planned product launch. Even with a large cash balance, low and volatile free cash flow increases the risk that management must cut investment or pursue external financing if the recovery stalls, constraining strategic optionality over the medium term.

Structural market disruption from GLP-1 adoption and coach attrition

Widespread GLP-1 usage changes customer behavior and reduces demand for traditional coaching-led fuelings, shrinking Medifast's distribution and recurring-consumption model. High coach attrition (down ~40% YoY) erodes the company's primary customer acquisition channel, making rebuilding the network and regaining scale a multi-quarter structural challenge.

Medifast Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Medifast, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes weight loss, weight management, healthy living products, and other consumable health and nutritional products in the United States and the Asia-Pacific. The company offers bars, bites, pretzels, puffs, cereal crunch, drinks, hearty choices, oatmeal, pancakes, pudding, soft serves, shakes, smoothies, soft bakes, and soups under the OPTAVIA, Optimal Health by Take Shape for Life, and Flavors of Home brands. It markets its products through point-of-sale transactions over ecommerce platform. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland.

How the Company Makes Money

Medifast makes money primarily by selling OPTAVIA-branded nutrition products and related program offerings directly to customers, with most revenue driven by recurring purchases of its packaged, portion-controlled “Fuelings” that participants consume as part of the OPTAVIA weight-loss and weight-management plans. The company’s model is built around a network of independent OPTAVIA Coaches who market the program, support clients, and drive customer acquisition and retention; Medifast pays compensation/incentives associated with coach activity while recognizing revenue from product sales to customers (including sales facilitated by coaches). Revenue is therefore largely tied to (1) customer enrollment and ongoing adherence to OPTAVIA plans, which drives repeat consumption of Fuelings, and (2) the productivity and growth of the coach network, which expands reach and supports retention. Significant earnings factors include customer retention/repurchase rates, new client acquisition through coaches, pricing and product mix of Fuelings and other OPTAVIA offerings, and operational execution in sourcing/manufacturing and fulfillment. Specific partnership details are null.

Medifast Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial fundamentals are pressured: revenue has declined for multiple years and profitability deteriorated from solid margins (2020–2023) to near-breakeven in 2024 and a loss in 2025. Cash generation also weakened sharply, with operating cash flow and free cash flow falling to low levels. The main offset is a conservatively financed balance sheet with low leverage and substantial equity, limiting solvency risk despite the earnings downturn.

Income Statement

Profitability has deteriorated sharply. Revenue has contracted for multiple years (2025: -10.2% after declines in 2023–2024), and the company swung from healthy profits in 2020–2023 (net margins ~9–11%) to near-breakeven in 2024 (~0.3%) and a loss in 2025 (net margin ~-4.8%). Gross margin remains high and fairly stable (~71–74%), but operating leverage has turned negative, with 2025 showing negative EBITDA and net income—suggesting fixed-cost pressure and weaker volume.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservatively financed with low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.05–0.17 across the period, improving to ~0.05 in 2025). Equity remains substantial relative to assets, providing a cushion despite the recent loss. The key weakness is returns: return on equity was very strong in 2021–2023, fell to low-single-digits in 2024, and turned negative in 2025, reflecting the earnings downturn rather than balance-sheet stress.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has weakened materially versus prior years. Operating cash flow dropped from very strong levels in 2022–2023 to $24.5M in 2024 and just $6.9M in 2025, with free cash flow compressing to $1.25M in 2025. While free cash flow improved versus 2024 on a growth basis, the absolute level is thin and cash flow is not closely tracking earnings (only a small portion of net income/loss is reflected in free cash flow in 2024–2025), which adds uncertainty around near-term cash conversion.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	385.79M	602.46M	1.07B	1.60B	1.53B
Gross Profit	275.19M	444.62M	775.85M	1.14B	1.13B
EBITDA	-3.71M	15.59M	139.51M	195.74M	223.05M
Net Income	-18.67M	2.09M	99.42M	143.57M	164.03M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	257.01M	284.21M	309.91M	316.21M	398.33M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	167.27M	162.34M	150.04M	87.69M	109.54M
Total Debt	16.79M	16.13M	22.01M	26.05M	32.54M
Total Liabilities	58.09M	74.10M	108.43M	161.17M	195.85M
Stockholders Equity	198.92M	210.11M	201.48M	155.04M	202.47M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.25M	17.02M	141.17M	177.89M	60.34M
Operating Cash Flow	6.86M	24.48M	147.66M	194.57M	94.55M
Investing Cash Flow	-7.93M	-26.52M	-61.05M	-11.41M	-29.06M
Financing Cash Flow	-564.00K	-1.51M	-79.79M	-199.58M	-125.13M

Medifast Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 10.97
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MED, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.97 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.34, above the 50-day MA of 10.92, and below the 200-day MA of 12.45, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MED.

Medifast Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
MRM	58 Neutral	$9.88M	-0.60	48.22%	―	13.71%	―
MED	45 Neutral	$109.91M	-1.62	-8.89%	―	-36.29%	-96.65%
WW	43 Neutral	$176.64M	0.28	-2625.35%	―	-9.32%	―

Medifast Corporate Events

Medifast Reaches Cooperation Agreement With Activist Investor

On March 19, 2026, Medifast Inc. entered into a cooperation agreement with Steamboat Capital Partners, which holds more than 5% of its shares, to reshape its board over the 2026 and 2027 annual meetings. Under the deal, Medifast will nominate Steamboat executives Parsa Kiai and Jeff Rose as independent director candidates at the 2026 shareholder meeting, while incumbent directors Jeffrey Brown and Michael Hoer will not stand for reelection.

The agreement also provides that Kiai and Rose will be nominated again as Steamboat designees at the 2027 meeting, with Steamboat allowed to recommend substitutes if needed, and subjects Steamboat to customary standstill and voting commitments through three months after the 2027 meeting. Announced publicly on March 20, 2026, the pact signals a constructive settlement with an activist investor aimed at strengthening governance, supporting Medifast’s strategic pivot toward metabolic health, and accelerating efforts to restore profitability and unlock long-term shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (MED) stock is a Hold with a $9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medifast stock, see the MED Stock Forecast page.

Medifast announces leadership changes and CEO succession transition

On December 30, 2025, Medifast, Inc. agreed that Chief Business Operations Officer and named executive officer Anthony Tyree would leave the company effective December 31, 2025, in a departure stated as unrelated to any disagreements over operations or policies. Under a separation agreement with subsidiary Jason Pharmaceuticals, Tyree is to receive a lump-sum payment equal to one year of salary and target bonus, eligibility for a 2025 bonus based on actual performance, prorated vesting of restricted and performance share units through year-end 2025, extended health coverage at active-employee rates through December 31, 2026 if COBRA is elected, and up to six months of outplacement assistance, in exchange for standard noncompetition, confidentiality and non-disparagement covenants. Effective January 5, 2026, the company promoted Nicholas Johnson from Chief Field Operations Officer to President of Medifast, broadening his remit to include enterprise marketing, scientific and clinical affairs, product development, and consumable product and plan management, while CFO James Maloney assumes oversight of the supply chain function—moves that underscore Johnson’s role in CEO succession planning and signal a tightening of operational control. Also on January 5, 2026, Chairman and CEO Daniel Chard announced he will transition to non-executive Chairman of the Board effective June 1, 2026, under a letter agreement that reduces his salary, target bonus and long-term incentive opportunity during the remaining period of his executive tenure, then shifts him to a board retainer structure while allowing continued vesting of existing equity awards so long as he remains non-executive chairman, a package that formalizes leadership succession while maintaining continuity for shareholders and the board.

The most recent analyst rating on (MED) stock is a Hold with a $10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medifast stock, see the MED Stock Forecast page.