Medifast (MED)
NYSE:MED
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Medifast
(NYSE:MED)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$11.00
▲(0.27% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/21/26
The score is held down primarily by deteriorating financial performance (multi-year revenue declines, a 2025 loss, and weakened operating/free cash flow) and bearish technical signals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting factors include a strong, low-debt balance sheet and earnings-call actions focused on restructuring savings and a path to improved profitability starting late 2026, with a small additional boost from the activist-driven governance changes.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet and ample liquidity
Large cash reserves and essentially no leverage provide a durable financial runway to fund restructuring, new product launches, and working-capital needs through a multi-quarter recovery, reducing solvency risk while management executes its turnaround plan.
Negative Factors
Multi-year revenue declines and 2025 net loss
Sustained top-line contraction and the swing to a 2025 loss reflect weakened demand and impaired operating leverage; recovering margins requires meaningful revenue stabilization or structural cost reconfiguration, exposing multi-quarter execution risk before earnings sustainably rebound.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet and ample liquidity
Large cash reserves and essentially no leverage provide a durable financial runway to fund restructuring, new product launches, and working-capital needs through a multi-quarter recovery, reducing solvency risk while management executes its turnaround plan.
Read all positive factors
Medifast (MED) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$119.91M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)273.17K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.59
Revenue Growth-35.96%
EPS Growth-979.45%
CountryUS
Employees504
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPersonal Products & Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.55
Shares Outstanding11,031,693
10 Day Avg. Volume240,932
30 Day Avg. Volume273,171
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.59
Price to Sales (P/S)0.30
P/FCF Ratio93.90
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.40
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.12
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.17
Enterprise Value/Ebitda32.98
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.00Price Target Upside9.39% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.98
Revenue Forecast (FY)$337.50M
Medifast Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Medifast, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes weight loss, weight management, healthy living products, and other consumable health and nutritional products in the United States and the Asia-Pacific. The company offers bars...
How the Company Makes Money
Medifast makes money primarily by selling OPTAVIA-branded nutrition products and related program offerings directly to customers, with most revenue driven by recurring purchases of its packaged, portion-controlled “Fuelings” that participants cons...
Medifast Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Active Earning Optavia Coaches
Number of Optavia coaches who are actively earning income through the program. Reflects the size and engagement of Medifast’s direct-selling network—growth suggests expanding distribution and potential revenue, while declines point to recruitment or retention problems and reduced sales reach.
Number of Optavia coaches who are actively earning income through the program. Reflects the size and engagement of Medifast’s direct-selling network—growth suggests expanding distribution and potential revenue, while declines point to recruitment or retention problems and reduced sales reach.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMedifast Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call presented a mix of encouraging operational and strategic early signs (positive coach productivity inflection, stronger coach leadership metrics, clinical validation of the metabolic health positioning, meaningful cost reductions and a strong cash position) alongside significant near-term financial challenges (large YoY revenue decline, a ~41% drop in active earning coaches, compressed gross profit and an $18.1M net loss driven in part by a $12.1M deferred tax valuation allowance). Management provided full-year guidance and a path toward returning to profitability in late 2026, but the magnitude of recent declines and the ongoing market disruption from GLP-1 adoption imply substantial execution risk before recovery is evident in top-line results.Positive Updates
Coach Productivity Turned Positive
Revenue per active earning coach reached $4,664 in Q4 2025, a year-over-year increase of 6.2% (first YoY improvement in productivity since mid-2022). Management reported coach productivity up ~6% YoY in Q4 and noted this as an early leading indicator for future client acquisition and coach growth.
Negative Updates
Significant Revenue Decline
Q4 2025 revenue was $75.1M, a 36.9% decrease year-over-year, reflecting materially lower sales volumes and demonstrating the near-term revenue impact of the transformation and market disruption.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Coach Productivity Turned Positive
Revenue per active earning coach reached $4,664 in Q4 2025, a year-over-year increase of 6.2% (first YoY improvement in productivity since mid-2022). Management reported coach productivity up ~6% YoY in Q4 and noted this as an early leading indicator for future client acquisition and coach growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Medifast guided Q1 2026 revenue of $65M–$80M with a loss per share of $0.15–$0.70 and reinstated full-year 2026 guidance of $270M–$300M revenue and a loss per share of $1.55–$2.75, expecting coach productivity to grow both year‑over‑year and sequentially in Q1 and profitability improvements to begin in Q4 2026 after a new product launch; they also forecast working capital of more than $140M at 12/31/26. For context, Q4 2025 results included $75.1M revenue (down 36.9% YoY), ~16,100 active earning coaches (down 40.6% YoY), revenue per active coach of $4,664 (up 6.2% YoY), gross profit $52.1M with a 69.4% margin (down 470 bps), SG&A $59.9M (down 31.5%; SG&A as % revenue up 630 bps), a net loss of $18.1M or $1.65/share (including a $12.1M noncash deferred tax valuation allowance equal to $1.10/share; loss per share before the allowance was $0.55), cash and investments of $167.3M with no debt, and planned restructuring and realignment actions targeting over $30M of future savings.Medifast Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 385.79M | 602.46M | 1.07B | 1.60B | 1.53B |
| Gross Profit | 275.19M | 444.62M | 775.85M | 1.14B | 1.13B |
| EBITDA | -3.71M | 15.59M | 139.51M | 195.74M | 223.05M |
| Net Income | -18.67M | 2.09M | 99.42M | 143.57M | 164.03M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 257.01M | 284.21M | 309.91M | 316.21M | 398.33M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 167.27M | 162.34M | 150.04M | 87.69M | 109.54M |
| Total Debt | 16.79M | 16.13M | 22.01M | 26.05M | 32.54M |
| Total Liabilities | 58.09M | 74.10M | 108.43M | 161.17M | 195.85M |
| Stockholders Equity | 198.92M | 210.11M | 201.48M | 155.04M | 202.47M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.25M | 17.02M | 141.17M | 177.89M | 60.34M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.86M | 24.48M | 147.66M | 194.57M | 94.55M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -7.93M | -26.52M | -61.05M | -11.41M | -29.06M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -564.00K | -1.51M | -79.79M | -199.58M | -125.13M |
Medifast Technical Analysis
Positive
10.97
Price Trends
10.43
Positive
10.87
Positive
12.14
Negative
Market Momentum
0.14
Negative
63.17
Neutral
85.37
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MED, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.97 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.23, above the 50-day MA of 10.43, and below the 200-day MA of 12.14, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.37 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MED.
Medifast Risk Analysis
Medifast disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Medifast reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Medifast Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
MED
Medifast
10.91
-2.19
-16.72%
MRM
MEDIROM Healthcare Technologies
1.22
0.42
52.50%
WW
WW International, Inc.
10.67
-19.53
-64.67%
Medifast Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Medifast Reaches Cooperation Agreement With Activist Investor
Positive
Mar 20, 2026
On March 19, 2026, Medifast Inc. entered into a cooperation agreement with Steamboat Capital Partners, which holds more than 5% of its shares, to reshape its board over the 2026 and 2027 annual meetings. Under the deal, Medifast will nominate Stea...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.