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Medifast
(NYSE:MED)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$9.50
▼(-1.86% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/04/26
The score is held down primarily by materially weakened financial performance (revenue contraction and losses) and bearish technicals (price below key moving averages with negative momentum). Earnings-call commentary and corporate actions provide some support via strong liquidity, cost actions, and a stated profitability target, but near-term uncertainty and a shrinking coach base limit upside; valuation is also constrained by negative earnings.
Positive Factors
High Gross Margin
Sustained gross margins around 69–74% indicate attractive unit economics for packaged nutrition products. This margin buffer gives Medifast flexibility to absorb promotional spend or invest in product development and coach support while margins underpin long-term profitability once revenue stabilizes or fixed-costs are reduced.
Negative Factors
Material Revenue Contraction
Revenue has declined steeply over multiple years, eroding scale and fixed-cost absorption. Even with strong gross margins, a much smaller revenue base makes returning to historic profitability harder and increases sensitivity to any further sales disruption or slower-than-expected coach recovery.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Gross Margin
Sustained gross margins around 69–74% indicate attractive unit economics for packaged nutrition products. This margin buffer gives Medifast flexibility to absorb promotional spend or invest in product development and coach support while margins underpin long-term profitability once revenue stabilizes or fixed-costs are reduced.
Read all positive factors
Medifast Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Active Earning Optavia Coaches
Number of Optavia coaches who are actively earning income through the program. Reflects the size and engagement of Medifast’s direct-selling network—growth suggests expanding distribution and potential revenue, while declines point to recruitment or retention problems and reduced sales reach.
Number of Optavia coaches who are actively earning income through the program. Reflects the size and engagement of Medifast’s direct-selling network—growth suggests expanding distribution and potential revenue, while declines point to recruitment or retention problems and reduced sales reach.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMedifast (MED) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$109.30M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)183.09K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.88
Revenue Growth-36.31%
EPS Growth-184.77%
CountryUS
Employees380
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Business Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.33
Shares Outstanding11,119,115
10 Day Avg. Volume175,854
30 Day Avg. Volume183,095
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.59
Price to Sales (P/S)0.30
P/FCF Ratio93.90
Enterprise Value/Market Cap>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.00Price Target Upside23.97% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)$279.70M
Medifast Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Medifast, Inc., through its various divisions, develops and provides a range of consumable health and nutritional items tailored for weight loss, weight management, and general wellness. These products are distributed across the United States and ...
How the Company Makes Money
Medifast makes money primarily by selling OPTAVIA-branded nutrition products and associated weight-management program offerings directly to consumers through a direct-to-consumer model supported by independent OPTAVIA Coaches. Revenue is generated...
Medifast Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: materially negative near-term operating and top-line trends (notably a 27.6% revenue decline and a 48.7% drop in active coaches) contrast with strong strategic initiatives, improving coach productivity (+41% YoY), a healthy balance sheet ($169.8M cash, no debt), and targeted cost actions (Catalyst) with a goal to return to profitability in Q4 2026. Management emphasized structural steps (new Trilivy brand, scientific institute, compensation changes and training) that could drive medium-term recovery, but sizable current financial pressures and near-term uncertainty remain.Positive Updates
Revenue In Line with Guidance
Second quarter revenue of $76.4 million, in line with the company’s guidance and consistent with sequential stabilization seen since late 2025.
Negative Updates
Significant Year-over-Year Revenue Decline
Revenue declined 27.6% year-over-year to $76.4 million, driven primarily by a large drop in active earning coaches and lower sales volume.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue In Line with Guidance
Second quarter revenue of $76.4 million, in line with the company’s guidance and consistent with sequential stabilization seen since late 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Medifast reiterated guidance for Q3 2026 revenue of $60–$80 million and loss per share of $0.15–$0.65 (excluding any one‑time Catalyst costs), and for full‑year 2026 revenue of $270–$300 million with loss per share of $0.25–$1.75, while forecasting that improvements toward profitability will begin in Q4 2026; management expects continued year‑over‑year and sequential coach productivity growth even as active earning coach counts decline in the short term, is targeting working capital of >$145 million at 12/31/2026, and noted Q2 context of $76.4 million revenue, ~11,700 active earning coaches (‑48.7% YoY), average revenue per active earning coach of $6,529 (+41% YoY), $169.8 million of cash and investments and no debt.Medifast Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 316.93M | 385.79M | 602.46M | 1.07B | 1.60B | 1.53B |
| Gross Profit | 219.45M | 275.19M | 444.62M | 775.85M | 1.14B | 1.13B |
| EBITDA | -3.57M | 4.86M | 16.49M | 141.90M | 195.74M | 222.94M |
| Net Income | -25.60M | -18.67M | 2.09M | 99.42M | 143.57M | 164.03M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 260.40M | 257.01M | 284.21M | 309.91M | 316.21M | 398.33M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 169.82M | 167.27M | 162.34M | 150.04M | 87.69M | 109.54M |
| Total Debt | 27.62M | 16.79M | 16.13M | 22.01M | 26.05M | 32.54M |
| Total Liabilities | 64.02M | 58.09M | 74.10M | 108.43M | 161.17M | 195.85M |
| Stockholders Equity | 196.38M | 198.92M | 210.11M | 201.48M | 155.04M | 202.47M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.01M | 1.25M | 17.02M | 141.17M | 177.89M | 60.34M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.79M | 6.86M | 24.48M | 147.66M | 194.57M | 94.55M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -37.60M | -7.93M | -26.52M | -61.05M | -11.41M | -29.06M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -983.00K | -564.00K | -1.51M | -79.79M | -199.58M | -125.13M |
Medifast Technical Analysis
Positive
9.68
Price Trends
11.12
Positive
11.04
Positive
11.20
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.09
Negative
73.04
Negative
50.55
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MED, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.34, below the 50-day MA of 11.12, and below the 200-day MA of 11.20, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.04 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MED.
Medifast Risk Analysis
Medifast disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Medifast reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Medifast Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
MED
Medifast
12.28
-0.68
-5.25%
MRM
MEDIROM Healthcare Technologies
0.89
-0.38
-29.61%
WW
WW International, Inc.
15.41
-25.66
-62.48%
Medifast Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Medifast Rebrands OPTAVIA as Trilivy Metabolic Health System
Positive
Jul 17, 2026
On July 17, 2026, Medifast announced a major strategic shift with the rebranding of its OPTAVIA lifestyle brand to Trilivy, described as a comprehensive metabolic health system. The move signaled a transition from a traditional weight-loss focus t...
Executive/Board Changes
Medifast Announces Chief Legal Officer Resignation and Transition
Neutral
Jun 1, 2026
On May 29, 2026, Medifast, Inc.’s Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary, Jason L. Groves, Esq., resigned from the company, and on May 31, 2026, he entered into a separation and release agreement that provides him with a one-time cash s...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Medifast Announces New CEO and Leadership Transition
Positive
May 26, 2026
On May 19, 2026, Medifast stockholders re-elected all seven directors to the board, ratified RSM US LLP as independent auditor for 2026, and approved on an advisory basis the compensation of its named executive officers. Investors also approved am...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.