Medifast (MED)
NYSE:MED
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Medifast
(NYSE:MED)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$13.00
▲(18.51% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held down primarily by deteriorated fundamentals—declining revenue, ongoing losses, and negative free cash flow—despite a strong balance sheet. Technicals are supportive with the stock trading above key moving averages, but momentum is getting near overbought. The latest earnings call adds some stabilization signals (sequential revenue uptick, productivity gains, cost actions, strong liquidity), though guidance still implies continued losses and execution risk.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet & liquidity
A strong cash position and zero debt give Medifast durable runway to fund the turnaround, support the new product rollout, and absorb continued near‑term losses. Low leverage reduces refinancing risk and preserves strategic optionality while management executes cost saves.
Negative Factors
Sharp coach count decline
The coach network is Medifast's primary distribution engine; a near‑50% decline materially reduces reach and new client acquisition. Even with higher productivity, fewer coaches constrain top‑line recovery and make long‑term revenue restoration dependent on rebuilding field engagement.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet & liquidity
A strong cash position and zero debt give Medifast durable runway to fund the turnaround, support the new product rollout, and absorb continued near‑term losses. Low leverage reduces refinancing risk and preserves strategic optionality while management executes cost saves.
Read all positive factors
Medifast Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Active Earning Optavia Coaches
Number of Optavia coaches who are actively earning income through the program. Reflects the size and engagement of Medifast’s direct-selling network—growth suggests expanding distribution and potential revenue, while declines point to recruitment or retention problems and reduced sales reach.
Number of Optavia coaches who are actively earning income through the program. Reflects the size and engagement of Medifast’s direct-selling network—growth suggests expanding distribution and potential revenue, while declines point to recruitment or retention problems and reduced sales reach.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMedifast (MED) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$140.43M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)206.56K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.68
Revenue Growth-36.31%
EPS Growth-184.77%
CountryUS
Employees504
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPersonal Products & Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.82
Shares Outstanding11,119,115
10 Day Avg. Volume167,319
30 Day Avg. Volume206,556
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.59
Price to Sales (P/S)0.30
P/FCF Ratio93.90
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.60
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.24
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.35
Enterprise Value/Ebitda46.36
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.00Price Target Upside9.39% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-2.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$273.70M
Medifast Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Medifast, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes weight loss, weight management, healthy living products, and other consumable health and nutritional products in the United States and the Asia-Pacific. The company offers bars...
How the Company Makes Money
Medifast makes money primarily by selling OPTAVIA-branded nutrition products and related program offerings directly to customers, with most revenue driven by recurring purchases of its packaged, portion-controlled “Fuelings” that participants cons...
Medifast Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced clear early operational and scientific progress — notably improving coach productivity, sequential revenue stabilization, a strong cash position, cost-savings initiatives, and a defined metabolic-health product roadmap — against substantial near-term financial headwinds, including a 34% YoY revenue decline, a roughly 45% drop in active earning coaches, compressed gross margins, and continued net losses. Management is optimistic about trajectory and expects profitability improvements beginning in Q4 2026 contingent on execution and the new product rollout, but material risks remain.Positive Updates
Coach Productivity Improvement
Average revenue per active earning coach rose to $5,432, a 19.2% year-over-year increase. Coach productivity increased 19% YoY and 16% sequentially — the largest YoY quarterly increase in five years and highest sequential increase in eight years. This marks the second consecutive quarter of YoY productivity gains and is cited as an early leading indicator for future revenue and coach channel growth.
Negative Updates
Material Revenue Decline Year-Over-Year
Revenue for Q1 2026 was $76.0 million, down 34.3% versus the year-earlier period, primarily driven by a sharp decline in active earning coaches.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Coach Productivity Improvement
Average revenue per active earning coach rose to $5,432, a 19.2% year-over-year increase. Coach productivity increased 19% YoY and 16% sequentially — the largest YoY quarterly increase in five years and highest sequential increase in eight years. This marks the second consecutive quarter of YoY productivity gains and is cited as an early leading indicator for future revenue and coach channel growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Medifast reconfirmed 2026 guidance of $270–$300 million in revenue and a full‑year loss per share of $1.05–$2.75, and guided Q2 revenue of $60–$80 million with loss per share of $0.50–$1.00, while expecting continued coach productivity growth in Q2 (up both year‑over‑year and sequentially), improvements toward reattaining profitability beginning in Q4 2026 after the new product launch and continuing into 2027, and working capital of more than $140 million at 12/31/2026; this outlook follows Q1 results of $76 million revenue (‑34.3% YoY), ~14,000 active earning coaches (‑44.9% YoY), average revenue per active earning coach of $5,432 (+19.2% YoY), coach productivity gains of 19% YoY and 16% sequential, gross profit $51.8 million (68.1% margin), SG&A $55.1 million, net loss $2.1 million ($0.19/sh), and $168.9 million in cash, cash equivalents and investments.Medifast Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 346.10M | 385.79M | 602.46M | 1.07B | 1.60B | 1.53B |
| Gross Profit | 242.70M | 275.19M | 444.62M | 775.85M | 1.14B | 1.13B |
| EBITDA | 1.82M | -3.71M | 15.59M | 139.51M | 195.74M | 223.05M |
| Net Income | -20.02M | -18.67M | 2.09M | 99.42M | 143.57M | 164.03M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 252.05M | 257.01M | 284.21M | 309.91M | 316.21M | 398.33M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 168.95M | 167.27M | 162.34M | 150.04M | 87.69M | 109.54M |
| Total Debt | 16.10M | 16.79M | 16.13M | 22.01M | 26.05M | 32.54M |
| Total Liabilities | 54.37M | 58.09M | 74.10M | 108.43M | 161.17M | 195.85M |
| Stockholders Equity | 197.68M | 198.92M | 210.11M | 201.48M | 155.04M | 202.47M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.47M | 1.25M | 17.02M | 141.17M | 177.89M | 60.34M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.72M | 6.86M | 24.48M | 147.66M | 194.57M | 94.55M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -23.01M | -7.93M | -26.52M | -61.05M | -11.41M | -29.06M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -902.00K | -564.00K | -1.51M | -79.79M | -199.58M | -125.13M |
Medifast Technical Analysis
Positive
10.97
Price Trends
11.02
Positive
11.01
Positive
11.85
Positive
Market Momentum
0.47
Positive
65.24
Neutral
64.11
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MED, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.06, below the 50-day MA of 11.02, and below the 200-day MA of 11.85, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 65.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MED.
Medifast Risk Analysis
Medifast disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Medifast reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Medifast Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
MED
Medifast
12.59
-0.82
-6.11%
MRM
MEDIROM Healthcare Technologies
1.27
-0.23
-15.33%
WW
WW International, Inc.
12.79
-17.41
-57.65%
Medifast Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Medifast Reaches Cooperation Agreement With Activist Investor
Positive
Mar 20, 2026
On March 19, 2026, Medifast Inc. entered into a cooperation agreement with Steamboat Capital Partners, which holds more than 5% of its shares, to reshape its board over the 2026 and 2027 annual meetings. Under the deal, Medifast will nominate Stea...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.