Medifast (MED) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $128.38M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 271.90K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 566.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.47
• Revenue Growth: -36.29%
• EPS Growth: -96.65%
• Country: US
• Employees: 504
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Personal Products & Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.21
• Shares Outstanding: 10,991,273
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 233,425
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 271,903
• PEG Ratio: -0.94
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.92
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.32
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.31
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: -0.09
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: -0.03
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -0.04
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -1.14
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): -1.37
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $357.70M

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.00 ▲(0.27% Upside)

The score is weighed down primarily by weakened financial performance (sharp revenue decline, compressed profitability, and reduced cash generation) and an unfavorable valuation (very high P/E). Technical signals remain weak with the stock trading below key moving averages, while the earnings call adds only modest support due to strategic progress and balance-sheet strength being offset by continued revenue and guidance pressures.

Positive Factors

Strong Gross Profit Margin

A robust gross profit margin indicates effective cost management and pricing power, which can support long-term profitability and competitive positioning.

New Product Line Launch

Launching a new product line can drive future revenue growth and strengthen market differentiation, enhancing Medifast's competitive edge.

Strong Balance Sheet

A strong balance sheet with substantial cash reserves and no debt provides financial stability and flexibility for strategic investments and growth initiatives.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue

Significant revenue decline reflects challenges in maintaining sales momentum, which could impact long-term growth and market position.

Decrease in Active Coaches

A reduction in active coaches can hinder sales and customer engagement, affecting revenue generation and market reach over time.

Cash Flow Challenges

Negative cash flow growth indicates liquidity issues, which can constrain operational flexibility and limit the ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Medifast Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Medifast, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes weight loss, weight management, healthy living products, and other consumable health and nutritional products in the United States and the Asia-Pacific. The company offers bars, bites, pretzels, puffs, cereal crunch, drinks, hearty choices, oatmeal, pancakes, pudding, soft serves, shakes, smoothies, soft bakes, and soups under the OPTAVIA, Optimal Health by Take Shape for Life, and Flavors of Home brands. It markets its products through point-of-sale transactions over ecommerce platform. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland.

How the Company Makes Money

Medifast generates revenue primarily through the sale of its meal replacement products and nutritional supplements, which are marketed through a direct-to-consumer model as well as through a network of independent health coaches. The company's key revenue streams include online sales via its e-commerce platform, sales through its health coaches, and retail partnerships. Medifast also benefits from recurring revenue through its subscription model, where customers can sign up for regular deliveries of their preferred products. Significant partnerships with healthcare providers and a focus on community-driven support contribute to customer retention and brand loyalty, further enhancing its revenue potential.

Medifast Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Medifast faces financial headwinds with declining revenue and profitability, as well as cash flow challenges. Despite a strong gross profit margin and low leverage, the company needs to address operational inefficiencies and improve cash flow management to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

Medifast's income statement shows declining revenue with a negative growth rate of -11.59% in the TTM period. Gross profit margin remains strong at 73.84%, but net profit margin is low at 0.76%, indicating profitability challenges. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have significantly decreased, reflecting operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is relatively stable with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.06, suggesting low leverage. However, return on equity has decreased to 1.72%, indicating reduced profitability from equity. The equity ratio is not provided, but overall, the company maintains a conservative financial structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals significant challenges, with a free cash flow growth rate of -117.99% in the TTM period. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.09, and free cash flow to net income is negative, indicating cash flow issues and potential liquidity concerns.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	429.69M	602.46M	1.07B	1.60B	1.53B	934.84M
Gross Profit	311.27M	444.62M	775.85M	1.14B	1.13B	697.82M
EBITDA	9.69M	15.59M	139.51M	195.74M	223.05M	138.47M
Net Income	248.00K	2.09M	99.42M	143.57M	164.03M	102.86M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	268.21M	284.21M	309.91M	316.21M	398.33M	276.08M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	173.51M	162.34M	150.04M	87.69M	109.54M	174.47M
Total Debt	12.26M	16.13M	22.01M	26.05M	32.54M	11.16M
Total Liabilities	53.50M	74.10M	108.43M	161.17M	195.85M	118.84M
Stockholders Equity	214.71M	210.11M	201.48M	155.04M	202.47M	157.25M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	646.00K	17.02M	141.17M	177.89M	60.34M	139.31M
Operating Cash Flow	7.19M	24.48M	147.66M	194.57M	94.55M	145.20M
Investing Cash Flow	-22.41M	-26.52M	-61.05M	-11.41M	-29.06M	-1.28M
Financing Cash Flow	-566.00K	-1.51M	-79.79M	-199.58M	-125.13M	-57.14M

Medifast Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 10.97
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MED, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 10.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.25, below the 50-day MA of 11.31, and below the 200-day MA of 12.93, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.88 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MED.

Medifast Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
MRM	58 Neutral	$13.95M	4.78	48.22%	―	13.71%	―
MED	47 Neutral	$128.38M	566.03	0.12%	―	-36.29%	-96.65%
WW	46 Neutral	$259.86M	0.21	―	―	-9.32%	―

Medifast Corporate Events

Medifast announces leadership changes and CEO succession transition

On December 30, 2025, Medifast, Inc. agreed that Chief Business Operations Officer and named executive officer Anthony Tyree would leave the company effective December 31, 2025, in a departure stated as unrelated to any disagreements over operations or policies. Under a separation agreement with subsidiary Jason Pharmaceuticals, Tyree is to receive a lump-sum payment equal to one year of salary and target bonus, eligibility for a 2025 bonus based on actual performance, prorated vesting of restricted and performance share units through year-end 2025, extended health coverage at active-employee rates through December 31, 2026 if COBRA is elected, and up to six months of outplacement assistance, in exchange for standard noncompetition, confidentiality and non-disparagement covenants. Effective January 5, 2026, the company promoted Nicholas Johnson from Chief Field Operations Officer to President of Medifast, broadening his remit to include enterprise marketing, scientific and clinical affairs, product development, and consumable product and plan management, while CFO James Maloney assumes oversight of the supply chain function—moves that underscore Johnson’s role in CEO succession planning and signal a tightening of operational control. Also on January 5, 2026, Chairman and CEO Daniel Chard announced he will transition to non-executive Chairman of the Board effective June 1, 2026, under a letter agreement that reduces his salary, target bonus and long-term incentive opportunity during the remaining period of his executive tenure, then shifts him to a board retainer structure while allowing continued vesting of existing equity awards so long as he remains non-executive chairman, a package that formalizes leadership succession while maintaining continuity for shareholders and the board.

The most recent analyst rating on (MED) stock is a Hold with a $10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medifast stock, see the MED Stock Forecast page.