MBX Biosciences, Inc. (MBX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.65B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 700.27K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.06
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: -44.79%
• Country: US
• Employees: 43
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.63
• Shares Outstanding: 44,902,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 552,857
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 700,269
• PEG Ratio: -0.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.39
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -11.08
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.61
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -11.50
• 1Y Price Target: $61.85
• Price Target Upside: 67.85% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): -3.04
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $39.00 ▲(5.83% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by mixed fundamentals: strong capitalization and low leverage are outweighed by pre-revenue status, widening losses, and high cash burn. Technicals add support due to strong price trend and positive momentum, while valuation is a headwind given negative earnings and no dividend. Corporate updates are positive, highlighting pipeline progress and multi-year runway.

Positive Factors

Balance sheet strength

Extremely low leverage and a materially larger equity base materially reduce insolvency risk and provide financial flexibility to fund R&D and clinical programs. A strong liquidity cushion supports multi-year development timelines without near-term debt refinancing pressure.

Multi-year cash runway from financing

A reported cash balance and guidance that resources should fund operations into 2029 gives the company time to advance multiple clinical programs to value-creating inflection points, reducing near-term dilution risk and enabling strategic choices (partnering, Phase 3 starts) over several years.

Clinical progress and clear development path

Positive Phase 2 results and a planned Phase 3 move the lead program toward potential regulatory and commercial milestones. Successful transition to Phase 3 would de-risk clinical proof-of-concept, create clear value inflection timing, and strengthen positioning in endocrine/metabolic indications.

Negative Factors

Pre-revenue operating profile

Being pre-revenue means the company currently depends entirely on financing to fund operations; until product commercialization or meaningful partnering revenue, persistent R&D spend will limit self-sustaining cash generation and keep operating leverage negative.

Widening net losses

Rapidly expanding net losses indicate rising operating intensity and negative profitability trends. Without near-term revenue or successful partnering, increasing losses will pressure cash reserves and could require additional financings that dilute shareholders or force reprioritization of programs.

Accelerating cash burn

Substantial and rising operating cash outflows show the company is consuming cash at an accelerating pace to fund trials. Even with current runway, sustained negative free cash flow elevates execution risk if trial timelines slip or costs increase, potentially forcing costly capital raises.

MBX Biosciences, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MBX Biosciences, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery and development of precision peptide therapies for the treatment of endocrine and metabolic disorders. Its lead product candidate is MBX 2109, a parathyroid hormone peptide prodrug, which is in Phase 2 clinical trial designed as a potential long-acting hormone replacement therapy for the treatment of chronic hypoparathyroidism. The company is also developing MBX 1416, a long-acting glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor antagonist that is in Phase 1 clinical trial designed as a potential therapy for post-bariatric hypoglycemia, a chronic complication of bariatric surgery. In addition, it is developing MBX 4291, a lead obesity product candidate, which is in investigational new drug-enabling studies designed as a long-acting and highly potent GLP-1 and glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide receptor co-agonist prodrug for treating obesity and co-morbidities. The company was founded in 2018 and is based in Carmel, Indiana.

How the Company Makes Money

MBX Biosciences makes money primarily through the development and commercialization of its peptide-based therapeutics. The company generates revenue by out-licensing its drug candidates to larger pharmaceutical companies capable of taking them through late-stage clinical trials, regulatory approval, and market launch. Additionally, MBX may enter into strategic partnerships and collaborations to co-develop or co-commercialize its products, which can include upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on product sales. The company may also receive funding through grants and research collaborations with academic institutions and other biotech firms.

MBX Biosciences, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength is the key offset (low leverage, sizable equity/capital raises), but the core operating profile remains weak: pre-revenue status with widening net losses and accelerating operating cash burn in the TTM period.

Income Statement

MBX is still pre-revenue (no reported revenue across annual periods and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), so losses are the core story. Profitability deteriorated meaningfully: net loss widened from about $26.1M (2022) to $61.9M (2024) and further to about $80.5M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating rising operating spend. The key positive is the step-up in equity base (seen on the balance sheet), which is typical for a biotech funding runway—but the income statement itself shows no sign yet of operating leverage or improving loss trajectory.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a relative strength: leverage is extremely low (debt-to-equity near zero in both 2024 and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), which reduces financial risk. Total assets and stockholders’ equity increased sharply from 2023 to 2024 and again into TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), consistent with significant capital raising and a strengthened liquidity cushion. The main weakness is ongoing negative profitability (negative returns on equity in 2024 and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), meaning the larger equity base is currently funding losses rather than generating returns.

Cash Flow

Cash burn is substantial and increasing: operating cash flow went from about -$23.1M (2022) to -$54.7M (2024) and roughly -$77.7M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with free cash flow similarly negative. Free cash flow is roughly in line with net losses (free cash flow to net income around ~1.0), which suggests losses are largely cash-based rather than being masked by non-cash items—transparent, but still a burn profile. A modest positive is the reported improvement in free cash flow growth in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), but absolute cash outflow remains the key risk until commercialization or partnering offsets spending.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
EBITDA	-88.32M	-67.95M	-35.15M	-25.70M
Net Income	-80.50M	-61.92M	-32.56M	-26.14M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	400.08M	268.54M	84.18M	45.09M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	391.67M	262.15M	80.68M	42.46M
Total Debt	623.00K	171.00K	324.00K	461.00K
Total Liabilities	12.54M	11.09M	156.65M	87.70M
Stockholders Equity	387.54M	257.44M	-72.47M	-42.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-78.91M	-55.55M	-32.11M	-23.56M
Operating Cash Flow	-77.69M	-54.68M	-31.98M	-23.12M
Investing Cash Flow	-21.08M	-160.59M	-30.93M	-11.41M
Financing Cash Flow	189.02M	234.10M	69.22M	46.06M

MBX Biosciences, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MBX	60 Neutral	$1.65B	-15.40	-24.43%	―	―	-44.79%
KALV	57 Neutral	$789.03M	-3.90	―	―	―	-13.14%
TYRA	57 Neutral	$1.64B	-16.40	-34.75%	―	―	-17.01%
TERN	52 Neutral	$3.68B	-33.53	-29.12%	―	―	12.45%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
NRIX	51 Neutral	$1.70B	-5.43	-49.63%	―	48.32%	-1.91%
GOSS	47 Neutral	$527.72M	-3.32	―	―	-58.17%	-116.24%

MBX Biosciences, Inc. Corporate Events

MBX Biosciences Appoints Laurie Stelzer to Board, Audit Chair

On January 20, 2026, MBX Biosciences expanded its board of directors to eight members and appointed experienced biopharmaceutical finance executive Laurie Stelzer as an independent Class I director, to serve until the company’s 2028 annual meeting, with standard non-employee director compensation and an indemnification agreement consistent with other directors. Effective the same date, Stelzer was named chair of MBX’s audit committee, replacing Ed Mathers, and joined the compensation committee, a move announced publicly on January 22, 2026 and intended to strengthen the company’s financial oversight and governance as it navigates a pivotal period with multiple clinical programs progressing toward key milestones in endocrine and metabolic diseases.

The most recent analyst rating on (MBX) stock is a Hold with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MBX Biosciences, Inc. stock, see the MBX Stock Forecast page.

MBX Biosciences Highlights 2026 Outlook and Pipeline Progress

On January 11, 2026, MBX Biosciences announced it would present a 2026 outlook and business update at the 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, highlighting a strong pipeline of endocrine and metabolic programs and a solid balance sheet. The company reported that its Phase 2 Avail trial of once-weekly canvuparatide for chronic hypoparathyroidism met its primary endpoint, with one-year follow-up data slated for disclosure at a medical meeting in the second quarter of 2026 and a Phase 3 trial planned to start in the third quarter of 2026, positioning the drug as a potential best-in-class standard of care. MBX is also advancing obesity and metabolic candidates, including MBX 4291, a dual GLP-1/GIP co-agonist prodrug in Phase 1 with 12-week data expected in the fourth quarter of 2026, and plans in 2026 to nominate two additional once-monthly obesity candidates—an amycretin prodrug and a GLP-1/GIP/GCGR triple agonist—alongside Phase 2a readouts in the second quarter of 2026 for imapextide in post-bariatric hypoglycemia. The company underscored its financial runway with preliminary, unaudited cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of about $373.7 million as of December 31, 2025, which it expects will fund operations into 2029, providing room to execute its clinical and pipeline expansion strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (MBX) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MBX Biosciences, Inc. stock, see the MBX Stock Forecast page.

MBX Biosciences Appoints Steven Hoerter as Executive Chair

MBX Biosciences announced significant corporate developments, including the resignation of James M. Cornelius from the board and the appointment of Steven Hoerter as executive chairperson, effective November 6, 2025. The company reported positive Phase 2 trial results for canvuparatide in hypoparathyroidism, indicating potential market leadership in a multibillion-dollar sector. MBX also raised approximately $200 million through a public offering, with cash reserves expected to support operations until 2029, positioning the company to execute its 2026 milestones and expand its presence in the biopharmaceutical industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (MBX) stock is a Buy with a $50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MBX Biosciences, Inc. stock, see the MBX Stock Forecast page.