Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $694.32B
• Dividend Yield: 0.61%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.73M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 62.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.73
• Revenue Growth: 32.00%
• EPS Growth: 102.18%
• Country: US
• Employees: 47,000
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 69
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - General
• EPS (TTM): 5.32
• Shares Outstanding: 947,989,140
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,215,201
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,725,374
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 17.63
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 80.30
• P/FCF Ratio: 203.10
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.10
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 20.80
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $984.63
• Price Target Upside: 11.32% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 20

Eli Lilly & Co's overall score reflects strong financial performance driven by impressive revenue growth and profitability improvements. However, gaps in cash flow data and high valuation metrics pose potential risks. Technical analysis indicates a cautious stance with mixed signals. The earnings call provided positive growth projections but also highlighted ongoing challenges such as pricing pressures and supply constraints. These factors combined suggest a solid but cautious outlook for the stock.

Positive Factors

Drug Pipeline

The recent positive results of the orforglipron trial highlight promising prospects for Eli Lilly's drug pipeline.

Strategic Positioning

Eli Lilly is one of two leading companies poised to dominate the GLP-1 obesity category due to strategic advantages.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

Incorporating this charge reduced our 1Q25E EPS 39% from $4.40 to $2.68 and full-year 2025E EPS 7% from $23.46 to $21.75.

Sales Impact

There will be a Part D redesign impact on US Mounjaro sales in 1Q.

Eli Lilly & Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, and markets human pharmaceuticals worldwide. It offers Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, and Humulin U-500 for diabetes; and Jardiance, Trajenta, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes. The company provides Alimta for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and malignant pleural mesothelioma; Cyramza for metastatic gastric cancer, gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma, metastatic NSCLC, metastatic colorectal cancer, and hepatocellular carcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal cancers, and various head and neck cancers; Retevmo for metastatic NSCLC, medullary thyroid cancer, and thyroid cancer; Tyvyt for relapsed or refractory classic Hodgkin's lymph and non-squamous NSCLC; and Verzenio for HR+, HER2- metastatic breast cancer, node positive, and early breast cancer. It offers Olumiant for rheumatoid arthritis; and Taltz for plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and non-radiographic axial spondylarthritis. The company offers Cymbalta for depressive disorder, diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain, generalized anxiety disorder, fibromyalgia, and chronic musculoskeletal pain; Emgality for migraine prevention and episodic cluster headache; and Zyprexa for schizophrenia, bipolar I disorder, and bipolar maintenance. Its Bamlanivimab and etesevimab, and Bebtelovimab for COVID-19; Cialis for erectile dysfunction and benign prostatic hyperplasia; and Forteo for osteoporosis. The company has collaborations with Incyte Corporation; Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; AbCellera Biologics Inc.; Junshi Biosciences; Regor Therapeutics Group; Lycia Therapeutics, Inc.; Kumquat Biosciences Inc.; Entos Pharmaceuticals Inc.; and Foghorn Therapeutics Inc. Eli Lilly and Company was founded in 1876 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Eli Lilly & Co generates revenue primarily through the sale of pharmaceutical products. The company's revenue model is centered around developing and commercializing proprietary medications, which are either marketed directly by Eli Lilly or through partnerships and collaborations. Key revenue streams include sales from their flagship diabetes medications like Trulicity and Humalog, oncology treatments such as Verzenio, and other therapies across immunology and pain management. Additionally, strategic partnerships and collaborations, including licensing agreements and joint ventures, contribute to the company's earnings. Factors such as regulatory approvals, patent protections, and market expansions also play a significant role in Eli Lilly's revenue generation.

Eli Lilly & Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Eli Lilly & Co demonstrates strong revenue and profit growth, indicating effective cost controls and profitability enhancements. The company has strengthened its equity base and eliminated reported debt, reducing financial risk. However, gaps in recent cash flow data and missing total assets and liabilities for 2024 limit the ability to fully assess financial health and liquidity. Overall, the business appears strong with potential for further improvement, though cash flow management requires attention.

Income Statement

Eli Lilly & Co shows strong revenue growth with a significant increase from $34.12B in 2023 to $45.04B in 2024, marking a revenue growth rate of approximately 32.3%. The gross profit margin is robust at 81.3% for 2024, indicating effective cost management. The net profit margin improved to 23.5% in 2024 from 15.4% in 2023, showcasing enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also strong at 28.6% and 41.6% respectively, reflecting efficient operations and substantial earnings before interest and taxes.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet presents a healthy equity position with stockholders' equity at $14.32B in 2024, up from $10.77B in 2023, resulting in a notable return on equity of 73.9% in 2024. The company has eliminated its reported debt by 2024, which indicates a substantially lower financial risk. However, the lack of reported total assets and liabilities for 2024 makes it difficult to assess the complete financial stability and leverage ratios.

Cash Flow

Cash flow data for 2024 is not reported, causing difficulty in assessing recent cash flow trends. For 2023, the free cash flow was negative, which reflects challenges in cash generation. However, the company has shown positive operating cash flows in previous years, suggesting potential for recovery. The absence of data in 2024 restricts full analysis, but past figures indicate operational challenges in cash flow management.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
45.04B	34.12B	28.54B	28.32B	24.54B
	Gross Profit
36.62B	27.04B	21.91B	21.01B	19.06B
	EBIT
12.90B	10.33B	7.13B	6.36B	6.06B
	EBITDA
15.23B	8.57B	8.66B	8.04B	8.91B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
10.59B	5.24B	6.24B	5.58B	6.19B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
3.27B	2.93B	2.21B	3.91B	3.68B
	Total Assets
78.71B	64.01B	49.49B	48.81B	46.63B
	Total Debt
33.64B	25.23B	16.24B	16.88B	16.60B
	Net Debt
-3.27B	22.41B	14.17B	13.07B	12.94B
	Total Liabilities
64.44B	53.14B	38.71B	39.65B	40.81B
	Stockholders Equity
14.32B	10.77B	10.65B	8.98B	5.64B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
414.30M	-3.15B	4.60B	5.39B	4.47B
	Operating Cash Flow
8.82B	4.24B	7.08B	7.26B	6.50B
	Investing Cash Flow
-9.30B	-7.15B	-3.26B	-2.76B	-2.26B
	Financing Cash Flow
1.23B	3.50B	-5.41B	-4.13B	-3.14B

Eli Lilly & Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 884.54
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LLY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 884.54 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 788.09, above the 50-day MA of 832.90, and above the 200-day MA of 843.50, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.77 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.49 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LLY.

Eli Lilly & Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NVO	79 Outperform	$284.58B	19.68	82.03%	1.90%	24.91%	21.42%
JNJ	76 Outperform	$371.98B	26.66	29.45%	3.21%	-0.37%	29.21%
MRK	73 Outperform	$208.21B	12.05	40.81%	3.82%	4.26%	―
AZN	73 Outperform	$214.69B	30.66	17.60%	2.18%	18.03%	18.11%
LLY	68 Neutral	$694.32B	62.53	84.84%	0.61%	32.00%	102.18%
ABBV	63 Neutral	$329.14B	79.15	61.94%	3.38%	5.45%	―
Sector *	51 Neutral	$5.31B	3.39	-40.42%	2.90%	18.11%	2.25%

Eli Lilly & Co Corporate Events

Eli Lilly & Co Appoints Procter & Gamble CEO to Board

Eli Lilly and Company announced the appointment of Jon Moeller, Chairman and CEO of Procter & Gamble, to its board of directors, effective December 1, 2024. Moeller brings extensive experience in leadership and strategic operations, complementing Lilly’s focus on innovation and growth. Concurrently, board member Karen Walker will resign at the end of 2024 but will continue collaborating with Lilly on digital initiatives in 2025. This transition marks a strategic evolution for Lilly as it enhances its digital and commercial capabilities.