Liberty LiLAC Group (LILAK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.35B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.34M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.79
• Revenue Growth: -1.56%
• EPS Growth: -10914.21%
• Country: US
• Employees: 10,000
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 71
• Industry: Telecommunications Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.69
• Shares Outstanding: 158,500,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,457,262
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,337,115
• PEG Ratio: 0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.22
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.91
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 6.62
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.50
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.82
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.13
• 1Y Price Target: $6.30
• Price Target Upside: -7.35% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $6.50 ▼(-4.41%Downside)

Liberty LiLAC Group's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges and valuation concerns, tempered by positive technical indicators and mixed earnings call signals. The company's financial health is a major risk, while recent technical and operational improvements provide some optimism.

Positive Factors

Cost Efficiency

Management has modified their medium/long target capex from 16% of revenue to 14-16% of revenue, indicating cost efficiency improvements.

Regional Performance

Operations outside of Puerto Rico had a strong performance with notable EBITDA growth in regions like the Caribbean, Panama, and Costa Rica.

Valuation

The current valuation is considered attractive with material upside potential, despite a conservative target price set above the current market level.

Negative Factors

Management Optimism

Management appeared overly optimistic regarding their ability to accelerate PR sales and reduce churn, leading to nearly a 40% decline in the stock.

Puerto Rico Challenges

The turnaround in Puerto Rico has been delayed, impacting financial results and forecasts for that region.

Wireless Conversion Issues

The PR wireless conversion issues could persist beyond the fourth quarter, presenting a risk to the company's performance.

Liberty LiLAC Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Liberty Latin America Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides fixed, mobile, and subsea telecommunications services. The company operates through C&W Caribbean and Networks, C&W Panama, Liberty Puerto Rico, VTR, and Costa Rica segments. It offers communications and entertainment services, including video, broadband internet, fixed-line telephony, and mobile services to residential and business customers; and business products and services that include enterprise-grade connectivity, data center, hosting, and managed solutions, as well as information technology solutions for small and medium enterprises, international companies, and governmental agencies. The company also operates a sub-sea and terrestrial fiber optic cable network that connects approximately 40 markets. It provides its services in approximately 20 countries in Latin America, the Caribbean, Chile, and Costa Rica under the brands of C&W, VTR, Liberty Puerto Rico, Cabletica, BTC, UTS, Flow, and Móvil. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.

How the Company Makes Money

Liberty LiLAC Group makes money primarily through subscription fees for its telecommunications services. These include monthly fees for video services, broadband internet, fixed-line telephony, and mobile services. The company also generates revenue from business-to-business services, offering connectivity solutions to enterprises. Additionally, Liberty LiLAC Group may engage in strategic partnerships with content providers and technology companies to enhance its service offerings, thereby contributing to its revenue streams.

Liberty LiLAC Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Liberty LiLAC Group faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenue and profitability, high leverage, and low equity ratios. Despite positive growth in free cash flow, net losses and poor margins impact financial health.

Income Statement

Liberty LiLAC Group's income statement reveals a challenging situation with declining revenue and profitability. The TTM gross profit margin is approximately 52.8%, indicating a decrease from the previous periods, and the net profit margin is negative due to substantial losses. Revenue growth has been negative, with the latest TTM showing a decline of around 1.1% compared to the previous annual period. The EBIT margin stands at a low 0.11%, and although the EBITDA margin is healthier at 18.6%, the negative net income significantly impacts overall profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet highlights high leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 8.09 in the TTM period. The company's equity ratio is 8.1%, indicating a low proportion of equity to total assets, which raises concerns about financial stability. The return on equity is negative due to consecutive net losses, reflecting challenges in generating returns for shareholders.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows mixed signals. The TTM free cash flow has grown by around 51.2% compared to the previous year, which is a positive indicator. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is not calculable due to negative net income, although operating cash flow remains positive, indicating some operational efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also not calculable, but the positive free cash flow suggests some financial flexibility.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.46B	4.51B	4.82B	4.80B	3.76B
Gross Profit	2.96B	3.00B	3.60B	3.61B	2.92B
EBITDA	964.60M	1.55B	1.34B	1.18B	620.40M
Net Income	-657.00M	-73.60M	-201.90M	-490.10M	-808.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.80B	13.59B	13.58B	15.39B	15.23B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	654.30M	988.60M	781.00M	956.70M	894.20M
Total Debt	8.17B	8.26B	7.96B	7.65B	8.36B
Total Liabilities	11.17B	11.28B	11.01B	12.47B	11.79B
Stockholders Equity	1.12B	1.76B	1.92B	2.24B	2.71B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	215.90M	312.00M	208.70M	279.90M	74.30M
Operating Cash Flow	756.30M	897.00M	868.80M	1.02B	640.10M
Investing Cash Flow	-688.50M	-615.80M	-1.12B	-1.27B	-2.45B
Financing Cash Flow	-386.40M	-62.40M	-29.20M	426.60M	271.10M

Liberty LiLAC Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 6.80
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LILAK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.54, above the 50-day MA of 5.85, and above the 200-day MA of 6.61, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LILAK.

Liberty LiLAC Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VEON	73 Outperform	$3.79B	8.29	43.53%	―	9.75%	―
LILA	63 Neutral	$1.35B	―	-57.56%	―	-1.56%	-10914.21%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$41.98B	-1.92	-12.06%	3.47%	2.10%	-71.01%
CABO	57 Neutral	$802.24M	59.21	-1.12%	8.28%	-6.30%	-109.90%
LILAK	52 Neutral	$1.35B	―	-57.56%	―	-1.56%	-10914.21%
TV	52 Neutral	$1.08B	―	-7.09%	2.07%	-23.01%	13.13%
ATUS	49 Neutral	$1.25B	―	21.93%	―	-3.68%	-2563.04%