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Liberty LiLAC Group (LILAK)
NASDAQ:LILAK
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Liberty LiLAC Group
(NASDAQ:LILAK)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$8.00
▼(-0.87% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/19/26
The score is held back primarily by high leverage and weak profitability despite improving cash flow, which keeps financial risk elevated. Technicals are neutral-to-slightly positive and provide only modest support. Valuation is constrained by negative earnings, while the earnings call was constructive on operating/cash flow progress but offset by hurricane-related 2026 headwinds and Puerto Rico balance-sheet uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Consistent positive operating cash flow and a large improvement in 2025 free cash flow create a durable internal funding source. Over the medium term this strengthens liquidity for capex and debt service, supporting operational continuity and reducing reliance on external financing if maintained.
Operational Profitability Progress
Material expansion in adjusted OIBDA and in adjusted OIBDA less P&E indicates improving core operating economics and better cash returns on revenue. If management sustains cost discipline and capital allocation, margins can provide persistent cash conversion and resilience through cyclical pressures.
Strategic Network & Cloud Investments
Large subsea builds and an AWS partnership expand recurring wholesale and cloud-enabled services, diversifying revenue and embedding the company into higher-value digital ecosystems. These assets support long-term ARPU upside and differentiated capabilities versus peers.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Very high leverage with a sharply reduced equity base increases refinancing and covenant risk. Over a multi-quarter horizon this limits financial flexibility, raises cost of capital, and amplifies earnings volatility impact on balance sheet health if cash flows deteriorate or recovery is delayed.
Persistent Losses & Margin Volatility
Ongoing net losses and volatile EBITDA margins undermine sustainable profitability despite recent operational gains. Structural turnaround requires sustained margin recovery across markets; until achieved, earnings deficits constrain retained equity rebuild and limit ability to delever organically.
Subsidiary Credit & Top-line Risk (Puerto Rico)
Severe leverage and top-line pressure at the Puerto Rico unit create concentrated restructuring and liquidity risk. Uncertainty around liability-management outcomes and possible additional funding needs could consume parent liquidity and delay consolidated deleveraging or strategic investments.
Liberty LiLAC Group (LILAK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.59B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)964.52K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.84
Revenue Growth-0.83%
EPS Growth-25.72%
CountryUS
Employees10,000
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryTelecommunications Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.28
Shares Outstanding158,800,000
10 Day Avg. Volume695,198
30 Day Avg. Volume964,523
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.29
Price to Book (P/B)2.66
Price to Sales (P/S)0.33
P/FCF Ratio4.83
Enterprise Value/Market Cap6.84
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.44
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.49
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.83
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.34B
Liberty LiLAC Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionLiberty Latin America Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides fixed, mobile, and subsea telecommunications services. The company operates through C&W Caribbean and Networks, C&W Panama, Liberty Puerto Rico, VTR, and Costa Rica segments. It offers communications and entertainment services, including video, broadband internet, fixed-line telephony, and mobile services to residential and business customers; and business products and services that include enterprise-grade connectivity, data center, hosting, and managed solutions, as well as information technology solutions for small and medium enterprises, international companies, and governmental agencies. The company also operates a sub-sea and terrestrial fiber optic cable network that connects approximately 40 markets. It provides its services in approximately 20 countries in Latin America, the Caribbean, Chile, and Costa Rica under the brands of C&W, VTR, Liberty Puerto Rico, Cabletica, BTC, UTS, Flow, and Móvil. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.
How the Company Makes MoneyLiberty LiLAC Group generates revenue through several key streams, primarily from subscription fees for its cable television and broadband internet services. The company also earns income from mobile communications services, including voice and data plans. Additional revenue is derived from advertising and content distribution agreements, as LILAK partners with various content providers and advertisers to enhance its service offerings. Strategic partnerships with local and international media companies further bolster its revenue, enabling access to premium content and expanding its customer base. The company benefits from economies of scale, allowing it to optimize operational costs and improve profitability as it grows its subscriber base in its target markets.
Liberty LiLAC Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call presented a constructive operational and financial turnaround story: adjusted OIBDA, adjusted OIBDA less P&E additions and adjusted free cash flow all expanded meaningfully in 2025, subscriber adds (notably postpaid) were strong, strategic projects (MANTA, El Salvador) and an AWS partnership position the company for future recurring revenue and AI/cloud-enabled efficiency gains. The principal negatives relate to Hurricane Melissa's materially adverse impact on Jamaica's fixed network and short-term cash flow, continued top-line pressure and leverage issues at Liberty Puerto Rico, and some fixed/B2B revenue softness in parts of the footprint. Management emphasized capital discipline, cost initiatives and a multi-year recovery plan for Jamaica and LPR, and expects performance to be back-end loaded in 2026.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Adjusted OIBDA Growth
Reported adjusted OIBDA of $1.7 billion for full year 2025, representing 9% rebased growth year-over-year; Q4 adjusted OIBDA of $451 million (8% rebased YoY growth).
Improved Profitability After Capex
Adjusted OIBDA less P&E additions of $1.1 billion for 2025, up 27% year-over-year; this metric represented 24% of revenue for the year, reflecting improved margin performance.
Adjusted Free Cash Flow Expansion
Adjusted free cash flow before partner distributions of $150 million for full year 2025, a 29% year-over-year increase; Q4 adjusted FCF was a robust $278 million.
Disciplined Capital Spend
P&E additions of $640 million in 2025 (14% of revenue), down from $725 million (16% of revenue) in 2024, demonstrating capital discipline while executing on key projects.
Mobile Postpaid Subscriber Adds
Group-wide addition of over 225,000 mobile postpaid subscribers in 2025, including over 160,000 postpaid adds in Costa Rica (a 16% expansion vs 2024), driven by FMC initiatives and prepaid-to-postpaid migrations.
Liberty Networks & Wholesale Momentum
Liberty Networks revenue of $129 million and adjusted OIBDA of $75 million in Q4, with rebased increases of 14% and 21% respectively; wholesale revenue grew 6% rebased (12% underlying excluding non-cash IRUs).
C&W Panama Growth and B2B Wins
C&W Panama registered 3% rebased revenue growth for full year 2025 and 7% rebased residential mobile revenue growth; B2B momentum included a Q4 YoY increase of 24% and a national contract (MEDUCA) to provide high-speed Internet to public schools.
Liberty Caribbean Resilience
Liberty Caribbean segment revenue held flat at $1.5 billion for full year 2025 despite Hurricane Melissa headwinds, with rebased residential mobile revenue up 4% driven by postpaid growth and selective price increases.
Jamaica Mobile Recovery and Network Recognition
Post-hurricane, the mobile network in Jamaica recovered quickly and was carrying more data traffic than pre-storm levels; Ookla recognized the Jamaican mobile network as the fastest on the island for H2 2025.
Weather Derivative Payout
Collected $81 million net from parametric/weather-derivative program to mitigate Hurricane Melissa physical damage and business interruption costs.
Strategic Projects and Cloud Partnership
Progress on MANTA (large subsea joint-build) and the El Salvador submarine cable (1,800 km) expected to drive future recurring revenue; announced partnership with AWS to bring compute and AI models to local markets and host outposts/wavelength in regional data centers.
Debt and Liquidity at Consolidated Level
Consolidated total debt of $8.4 billion with liquidity of $800 million cash and $900 million available under credit lines; consolidated net leverage improved to 4.3x (and would be mid-3s excluding Puerto Rico).
Negative Updates
Hurricane Melissa Impact
Hurricane Melissa materially damaged fixed infrastructure in Jamaica; company reported an adverse impact of $27 million on adjusted OIBDA from the storm and removed 133,000 homes passed from the fixed count. Management expects roughly a $100 million adjusted FCF impact from the storm in 2026 and a multi-quarter recovery to approach pre-hurricane profitability by end of 2026 (full recovery into 2027).
Group Revenue Slightly Down
LLA full year revenue was slightly down on a rebased basis to $4.4 billion for 2025, with Q4 revenue of $1.2 billion up only 1% rebased YoY, reflecting offsetting performance across segments.
Liberty Puerto Rico Top-Line Pressure and Leverage
Liberty Puerto Rico reported a 6% revenue decline for the year (residential mobile -6%, B2B -16%), Q4 rebased revenue decline of 4%; LPR has $2.9 billion of total debt with reported borrowing group net leverage nearly 8x and covenant leverage of restricted subsidiaries ~14x, and may need to raise additional liquidity while pursuing a liability management exercise with creditors.
Fixed Broadband Damage and Customer Losses in Jamaica
Fixed broadband in Jamaica was materially impacted by the hurricane: only ~75% of fixed broadband customers back online countrywide with significant regional variance (Zone 3 with just over 50% offline); 133,000 home passes removed from near-term serviceable base.
Costa Rica and Fixed Revenue Challenges
Costa Rica registered only 1% rebased revenue growth for 2025 with fixed revenue declining 4% rebased due to price competition; Q4 LCR revenue and adjusted OIBDA declined 2% and 3% rebased respectively.
B2B Weakness in Some Markets
B2B faced pressure in select regions (notably Puerto Rico and parts of Costa Rica) with Puerto Rico B2B down 16% YoY for the year and LCR experiencing a soft B2B quarter in Q4, requiring organizational changes and remediation plans.
Near-Term Recovery Timing and 2026 Headwinds
Management expects 2026 financial performance to be heavily weighted to the second half of the year due to timing of Jamaican rebuild and project cadence; some recovery investments and storm-related rebuild costs are front-loaded into 2026, weighing on near-term free cash flow.
Ongoing Liability Management Uncertainty for LPR
Liberty Puerto Rico's liability management proposal was submitted to creditors' advisors but no response had been received by call time, leaving uncertainty around creditor engagement and the timing/structure of potential solutions.
Company Guidance
Management's guidance was largely qualitative but included several quantified expectations and baselines: they expect Jamaica to be "back close to pre‑hurricane levels of profitability by the end of 2026" (with a fuller recovery into 2027) and estimate the 2026 adjusted free cash flow impact from Hurricane Melissa to be roughly $100 million; they flagged 2026 results will be heavily weighted to the second half of the year and reiterated priorities of cost‑out, capital discipline and free cash flow delivery. For context and to show the starting point for that guidance, 2025 revenue was about $4.4 billion (Q4 $1.2 billion, +1% rebased), adjusted OIBDA $1.7 billion (2025 rebased growth +9%; Q4 adjusted OIBDA $451 million, +8% rebased), P&E additions $640 million (14% of revenue, down from 16% in 2024), adjusted OIBDA less P&E additions $1.1 billion (24% of revenue, +27% YoY), adjusted FCF before partner distributions $150 million for the year (Q4 $278 million, +29% YoY), Parametric proceeds of $81 million net were received, and consolidated net debt was $8.4 billion with $800 million cash, $900 million available liquidity and leverage of 4.3x (mid‑3s ex‑LPR).Liberty LiLAC Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Cash flow is a relative strength (2025 free cash flow improved sharply and operating cash flow has been consistently positive), but profitability is weak with persistent net losses and a deterioration to negative EBITDA margin in 2025. The balance sheet is heavily leveraged (debt-to-equity ~15.1x with a sharply reduced equity base), increasing refinancing and volatility risk.Income Statement
Revenue has been broadly flat to down from 2021–2024, followed by a rebound in 2025 (+20.8% YoY). However, profitability remains weak: net losses persist every year (net margin roughly -1.6% in 2023 deteriorating to about -13.8% in 2025). Operating performance also weakened recently, with 2025 showing negative EBITDA margin (~-5.9%) versus solid positive levels in 2022–2024, signaling margin volatility and execution pressure despite the 2025 top-line recovery.32
Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage is the key issue. Total debt remains very high (~$8.4B in 2025) while equity has compressed sharply (to ~$0.56B in 2025 from ~$2.61B in 2020), driving debt-to-equity to ~15.1x in 2025 (up from ~7.3x in 2024). Returns on equity are deeply negative (about -110% in 2025), consistent with ongoing losses and a shrinking equity base. The balance sheet is therefore structurally pressured and more exposed to refinancing and earnings volatility than peers with healthier capitalization.18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a relative bright spot. Operating cash flow has been consistently positive (~$0.64B–$1.02B from 2020–2025), and 2025 free cash flow improved sharply to ~$0.81B (up strongly from ~$0.22B in 2024). That said, cash flow coverage of debt remains modest (operating cash flow covering ~37%–67% of total debt over the period, ~41% in 2025), and the business is still reporting sizable net losses, implying cash flow durability and reinvestment needs remain key monitoring items.56
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.44B | 4.46B | 4.51B | 4.81B | 4.81B |
| Gross Profit | 2.56B | 2.96B | 3.00B | 3.08B | 3.08B |
| EBITDA | 1.62B | 964.60M | 1.55B | 1.34B | 1.17B |
| Net Income | -611.20M | -657.00M | -73.60M | -170.70M | -440.60M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 12.23B | 12.80B | 13.59B | 13.58B | 15.37B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 13.70M | 654.30M | 988.60M | 781.00M | 956.70M |
| Total Debt | 9.22B | 8.17B | 8.26B | 7.96B | 7.65B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.16B | 11.17B | 11.28B | 11.02B | 12.47B |
| Stockholders Equity | 555.60M | 1.12B | 1.76B | 1.92B | 2.22B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 305.90M | 215.90M | 312.00M | 208.70M | 279.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 805.90M | 756.30M | 897.00M | 868.80M | 1.02B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -665.60M | -688.50M | -615.80M | -1.12B | -1.27B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 29.70M | -386.40M | -62.40M | -29.20M | 426.60M |
Liberty LiLAC Group Technical Analysis
Positive
8.07
Price Trends
7.72
Positive
8.01
Positive
7.47
Positive
Market Momentum
0.06
Positive
59.56
Neutral
51.28
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LILAK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.01, above the 50-day MA of 7.72, and above the 200-day MA of 7.47, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LILAK.
Liberty LiLAC Group Risk Analysis
Liberty LiLAC Group disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Liberty LiLAC Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Liberty LiLAC Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $4.97B | -5.39 | -2.95% | 0.40% | 15.38% | -292.52% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
56 Neutral | $1.33B | ― | -9.77% | 3.03% | -18.28% | -42.53% | |
51 Neutral | $1.59B | -2.42 | -79.15% | ― | -0.83% | -25.72% | |
49 Neutral | $1.59B | -2.42 | -79.15% | ― | -0.83% | -25.72% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
LILAK
Liberty LiLAC Group
8.25
1.56
23.32%
TV
Grupo Televisa, S.A.B.
2.88
0.98
51.66%
TEO
Telecom Argentina
11.45
0.08
0.70%
LILA
Liberty Global LiLAC
8.18
1.44
21.36%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.