Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $37.46B
• Dividend Yield: 3.12%
• Average Volume (3M): 10.28M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.23
• Revenue Growth: 6.77%
• EPS Growth: -29.84%
• Country: US
• Employees: 29,000
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
• EPS (TTM): 0.60
• Shares Outstanding: 1,358,666,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 9,510,334
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 10,280,595
• PEG Ratio: 0.41
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.49
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.29
• P/FCF Ratio: 25.28
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.39
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.13
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.77
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.86
• 1Y Price Target: $36.86
• Price Target Upside: 33.70% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.26
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $24.04B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $29.00 ▲(5.19% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/13/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/13/26

KDP scores as a moderately attractive but mixed setup: solid financial performance and a reasonable valuation/dividend are partly offset by weak technical momentum and near-term earnings pressure from coffee inflation, brewer declines, and transaction/JV-related costs, alongside elevated leverage tied to the acquisition and separation plan.

Positive Factors

Scale and diversified beverage & coffee portfolio

Sizable, diversified revenue base across Packaged Beverages, concentrates and Keurig consumables provides durable scale and channel breadth. Steady multi-year revenue growth underpins negotiating leverage with retailers, manufacturing efficiency and resilience to category-specific shocks.

Strong brands and shelf/mix momentum

Consistent market-share wins and repeated product innovation (e.g., Fansville campaigns, Ghost DSD, new Keurig rollouts) strengthen pricing power and shelf presence. Durable brand equity supports higher-margin SKUs, retailer support and long-term consumer loyalty across channels.

Meaningful cash generation and planned FCF improvement

Material free cash flow that is forecast to grow provides structural capacity to service debt, fund separation costs, sustain dividends and invest in growth. Predictable FCF supports deleveraging plans and reduces reliance on capital markets over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Material leverage remains after transition activity

Despite improvement, elevated absolute debt and meaningful leverage constrain financial flexibility in a defensive consumer business. High debt increases sensitivity to interest cost moves and limits room for opportunistic investment or margin smoothing during downturns.

Coffee cost inflation and brewer declines pressuring margins

Sustained green-coffee inflation, tariffs and a shrinking brewer installed base reduce coffee gross margins and recurring pod demand. Lower brewer placements and retailer inventory cuts can structurally depress consumable growth and amplify cyclicality in the coffee segment.

Separation and financing complexity with one-time costs

Large, multi-layered financing (term loans, note offerings, convertible preferred, JV structures) and explicit one-time costs increase execution risk. Delays or weaker-than-expected deleveraging would compress near-term cash and distract management, limiting value capture from the split.

Keurig Dr Pepper Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. operates as a beverage company in the United States and internationally. It operates through Coffee Systems, Packaged Beverages, Beverage Concentrates, and Latin America Beverages segments. The Coffee Systems segment manufactures and distributes various finished goods related to its coffee systems, K-Cup pods, and brewers, as well as specialty coffee. This segment sells its brewers through third-party distributors and retail partners, as well as through its website at keurig.com. The Packaged Beverages segment engages in the manufacture and distribution of packaged beverages of its brands; contract manufacturing of various private label and emerging brand beverages; and distribution of packaged beverages for its partner brands. The Beverage Concentrates segment manufactures and sells beverage concentrates primarily under the Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, A&W, 7UP, Sunkist, Squirt, Big Red, RC Cola, Vernors, Snapple, Mott's, Bai, Hawaiian Punch, Clamato, Yoo-Hoo, Core, ReaLemon, evian, Vita Coco, and Mr and Mrs T mixers brands. This segment also manufactures beverage concentrates into syrup. The Latin America Beverages segment manufactures and distributes carbonated mineral water, flavored carbonated soft drinks, bottled water, and vegetable juice products under the Peñafiel, Clamato, Squirt, Dr Pepper, Crush, and Aguafiel brands. The company serves retailers, bottlers and distributors, restaurants, hotel chains, office coffee distributors, and end-use consumers. Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Burlington, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

KDP generates revenue primarily by selling beverages and coffee-related products through a mix of direct-to-retail, distributor, and foodservice channels, supported by brand licensing and partnership arrangements. 1) Packaged Beverages (ready-to-drink products) - What it sells: Finished, ready-to-drink beverages packaged in bottles/cans (e.g., soft drinks, waters, teas, juices, and other non-alcoholic beverages). - How it earns: Revenue is recognized from selling these packaged beverages to retailers, wholesalers, and other customers. Earnings depend on volume shipped, net pricing (including promotions/discounts), product mix (premium vs. value offerings), and manufacturing/distribution efficiency. - Why this is durable: KDP benefits from scale in bottling, distribution, and shelf presence across multiple beverage categories. 2) Beverage Concentrates (syrups and concentrates) - What it sells: Beverage concentrates and syrups used to produce finished drinks, often by third-party bottlers or fountain operators. - How it earns: KDP sells concentrates (higher-margin input products relative to finished beverages) and may receive related fees/royalties depending on brand and contractual structures. This model allows KDP to monetize brand equity without always bearing the full cost of bottling and distribution. 3) Coffee systems and consumables (Keurig) - Keurig portion packs (consumables): KDP sells single-serve coffee pods/portion packs (including K-Cup pods and other formats). Consumables are typically a repeat-purchase revenue stream driven by household penetration and usage frequency. - Keurig brewers (durables): KDP sells Keurig brewing machines. Brewers can function as an installed base that supports recurring portion-pack sales. - Licensing/brand partnerships: KDP produces and sells portion packs under owned brands and through licensed brand relationships. Where applicable, KDP pays royalties or shares economics with brand owners, while benefiting from greater assortment and consumer reach. 4) Route-to-market and channel economics - Retail and wholesale: Revenue comes from selling into grocery, mass, club, convenience, drug, and other retail formats, either directly or via distributors. - Foodservice and fountain: KDP supplies products for restaurants, hospitality, and institutional customers (e.g., fountain syrups, packaged beverages, and coffee solutions). - E-commerce and direct: KDP also sells through online platforms and, for certain products, direct-to-consumer channels, with economics influenced by shipping costs, customer acquisition costs, and mix. 5) Key factors that drive earnings (how revenue becomes profit) - Pricing and mix: Ability to raise prices, manage promotional intensity, and shift mix toward higher-margin products (e.g., concentrates, premium beverages, or higher-value coffee pods). - Input costs and supply chain: Commodity costs (e.g., coffee, aluminum, PET resin, sweeteners) and manufacturing/logistics efficiency materially affect margins. - Brand portfolio leverage: Strong brands support shelf space, consumer pull, and licensing opportunities, which can increase volumes and improve negotiating leverage with retailers. Significant partnerships or specific contract terms not explicitly detailed here are null.

Keurig Dr Pepper Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are solid but not pristine. Income statement strength (Score 73) reflects steady revenue growth and a notable 2025 net-margin rebound, while the balance sheet (Score 66) is improving with lower leverage but still carries meaningful debt for a defensive name. Cash flow is the main constraint (Score 59) due to a 2025 free-cash-flow decline and multi-year volatility despite positive generation.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily from $11.6B (2020) to $16.6B (2025), with the latest annual growth accelerating to 2.7% versus near-flat growth in 2024. Profitability remains solid with consistently strong gross margins (~52–56%), and net margin improved to 12.5% in 2025 from 9.4% in 2024. Offsetting this, profitability has been somewhat volatile over time (net margin peaked in 2021 and dipped in 2024), and operating profitability appears less consistent (2025 operating margin data is not comparable to prior years due to the provided figure).

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks reasonably stable with equity increasing to $25.5B in 2025 and leverage trending modestly better versus 2024 (debt-to-equity down to ~0.63 from ~0.71), though still meaningful for a defensive consumer staples business. Total debt declined year over year to $16.1B, and returns on equity improved to ~8.1% in 2025 from ~5.9% in 2024. The key weakness is that leverage remains material and total debt is still above 2023 levels, leaving less flexibility if demand or costs turn unfavorable.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive with $2.0B operating cash flow and $1.5B free cash flow in 2025, and free cash flow continues to cover a large portion of earnings (about 76% in 2025). However, free cash flow declined 6.7% in 2025 after a modest increase in 2024, and operating cash flow has been choppy over the cycle (notably lower in 2023 versus surrounding years). Operating cash flow relative to revenue is moderate (~24% in 2025), suggesting cash conversion is good but not exceptionally strong or consistent.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	16.60B	15.35B	14.81B	14.06B	12.68B
Gross Profit	8.70B	8.53B	8.08B	7.32B	6.98B
EBITDA	4.19B	3.38B	3.97B	3.12B	4.01B
Net Income	2.08B	1.44B	2.18B	1.44B	2.15B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	55.46B	53.43B	52.13B	51.84B	50.60B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.03B	510.00M	267.00M	535.00M	567.00M
Total Debt	16.14B	17.27B	14.82B	13.58B	13.27B
Total Liabilities	29.94B	29.19B	26.45B	26.71B	25.63B
Stockholders Equity	25.52B	24.24B	25.68B	25.13B	24.97B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.50B	1.66B	848.00M	2.46B	2.42B
Operating Cash Flow	1.99B	2.22B	1.33B	2.84B	2.87B
Investing Cash Flow	-573.00M	-1.61B	-784.00M	-1.14B	210.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-999.00M	-223.00M	-832.00M	-1.73B	-2.76B

Keurig Dr Pepper Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 27.57
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KDP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 27.57 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.87, below the 50-day MA of 28.34, and below the 200-day MA of 29.19, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KDP.

Keurig Dr Pepper Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MNST	77 Outperform	$75.90B	39.27	25.65%	―	7.62%	12.77%
KO	76 Outperform	$333.65B	33.11	44.35%	2.92%	2.93%	25.42%
PEP	70 Outperform	$213.88B	23.86	43.03%	3.91%	0.48%	-22.61%
CCEP	69 Neutral	$45.27B	18.13	24.48%	2.52%	9.65%	-4.26%
COKE	68 Neutral	$14.41B	19.79	56.69%	0.61%	4.22%	22.24%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
KDP	62 Neutral	$37.46B	18.30	8.29%	3.12%	6.77%	-29.84%

Keurig Dr Pepper Corporate Events

Keurig Dr Pepper Prices Major Debt for Coffee Acquisition

On March 12, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper announced that Maple Parent Holdings Corp. had priced private offerings of $2.55 billion in U.S. dollar notes and €3.0 billion in euro notes, with maturities ranging from 2028 to 2056 and guarantees initially provided by the company and certain subsidiaries. The guarantees are set to transition in connection with the planned separation of the company’s coffee and beverage businesses and the closing of its previously announced acquisition of JDE Peet’s, with proceeds from the offerings expected to fund that transaction and related costs, underscoring the company’s strategic push to reshape its capital structure and global coffee footprint through substantial debt financing.

The notes offerings, which are expected to close on March 26, 2026 subject to customary conditions, were sold in unregistered private placements to qualified institutional buyers under Rule 144A and to non-U.S. investors under Regulation S. The structure of the guarantees, including an expected future guarantee by JDE Peet’s and post-separation guarantees by the issuer’s subsidiaries, highlights how the financing is closely integrated with the company’s broader reorganization and acquisition strategy, with implications for creditors and other stakeholders as the business realigns its beverage and coffee operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (KDP) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keurig Dr Pepper stock, see the KDP Stock Forecast page.

Keurig Dr Pepper Restructures Financing for Coffee Spin-Off

On March 6, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper amended its December 18, 2025 term loan agreement so that subsidiary Maple Parent Holdings Corp. joins as co-borrower, becoming jointly and severally liable for all obligations and agreeing to guarantee KDP’s senior notes until the planned separation of KDP’s coffee and beverage businesses. Following that separation, KDP will be released from the facility and Maple will be the sole borrower, with €2.6 billion of the term loan maturity extended to 15 months from initial funding while €7.75 billion retains a 364-day term, and the company plans to use this financing, alongside a new multi-tranche private notes offering by Maple, to fund its acquisition of JDE Peet’s and related costs, underscoring a leveraged but targeted push to scale its global coffee platform.

Maple intends to issue senior unsecured notes in U.S. dollars and euros in a private placement to institutional investors, with proceeds, together with the amended term loan, earmarked for the JDE Peet’s deal and associated transactions, signaling a significant balance sheet expansion to support strategic portfolio reshaping. Deloitte & Touche LLP, in an audit report dated February 24, 2026 and updated March 9, 2026 for the effect of the new co-borrowing and guarantee structure, concluded that KDP Coffee Co.’s 2023–2025 combined financial statements present fairly in all material respects under U.S. GAAP, providing investors with validated historical performance data as KDP prepares to separate its coffee business and integrate JDE Peet’s.

The most recent analyst rating on (KDP) stock is a Buy with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keurig Dr Pepper stock, see the KDP Stock Forecast page.

Keurig Dr Pepper Updates Financing for JDE Peet’s Acquisition

Keurig Dr Pepper on February 23, 2026, detailed an updated financing plan and structure for its planned acquisition of JDE Peet’s and subsequent separation into two listed entities, Beverage Co. and Global Coffee Co. The company now expects to fund the deal with about $9 billion of long-term debt, $8.5 billion of equity capital and the assumption of roughly $5 billion of JDE Peet’s bonds, targeting combined net leverage of about 4.5x by June 30, 2026 and projecting roughly 10% EPS accretion in the first full year after closing in early April 2026.

As part of the package, KDP increased its previously announced Apollo- and KKR-led convertible preferred equity investment from $3 billion to $4.5 billion with additional backing from T. Rowe Price Investment Management and other long-term investors, prompting it to shelve a contemplated partial IPO of Beverage Co. In parallel, the company signed definitive agreements for a $4 billion pod manufacturing joint venture for Global Coffee Co. that will own or access K-Cup and single-serve manufacturing assets in the U.S. and Canada, with KDP retaining 51% and using JV proceeds to help fund the JDE Peet’s purchase.

The joint venture structure, which brings in Apollo, KKR and Goldman Sachs Alternatives as a 49% investor group, is supported by long-term operating, supply and IP-licensing arrangements that lock in K-Cup sourcing and volume-based pricing for KDP affiliates. Global Coffee Co. is expected to raise about $9 billion of additional debt, assume JDE Peet’s existing bonds and later issue junior subordinated notes to term out borrowings, while KDP continues evaluating asset sales and other deleveraging options as it works toward a tax-free spin-off of Global Coffee Co. targeted for operational readiness by year-end 2026, subject to leverage and market conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (KDP) stock is a Buy with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keurig Dr Pepper stock, see the KDP Stock Forecast page.

Keurig Dr Pepper Expands Board, Restructures Governance Committees

On February 12, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.’s board voted to expand its membership to eleven directors and appointed William Newlands and Amie Thuener as new independent directors, effective March 2, 2026. Newlands will join the Nominating and Governance Committee and Thuener will join the Audit and Finance Committee, and both will receive standard non-employee director compensation.

Also on February 12, 2026, the board approved dissolving its combined Remuneration and Nominating Committee and creating separate Nominating and Governance and Compensation Committees, effective March 2, 2026. The moves signal a sharpening of board oversight structures around governance, compensation, and financial controls, with potential implications for how the company manages executive pay and corporate governance practices.

The most recent analyst rating on (KDP) stock is a Buy with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keurig Dr Pepper stock, see the KDP Stock Forecast page.

Keurig Dr Pepper Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend for Shareholders

On February 3, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper’s board declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.23 per share for common shareholders, scheduled for payment on April 10, 2026, to holders of record as of March 27, reinforcing the company’s ongoing capital return program and signaling confidence in its cash generation amid a diversified beverage portfolio.

The most recent analyst rating on (KDP) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keurig Dr Pepper stock, see the KDP Stock Forecast page.

Keurig Dr Pepper Secures Major Term Loan for Acquisition

On December 18, 2025, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. entered into a €10.35 billion, 364-day term loan agreement arranged by Morgan Stanley Senior Funding, with borrowings priced at EURIBO plus a margin tied to the company’s debt ratings and subject to customary investment-grade covenants, guarantees from key subsidiaries, and mandatory prepayments from certain asset sales and capital markets transactions. The facility is intended to provide flexible funding for the contemplated acquisition of JDE Peet’s, while an amendment executed the same day to KDP’s existing bridge credit agreement cut that bridge facility from €16.2 billion to €5.85 billion and redirected future debt proceeds to first reduce the new term loan, reshaping the company’s short-term financing mix around the planned transaction.

The most recent analyst rating on (KDP) stock is a Hold with a $32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keurig Dr Pepper stock, see the KDP Stock Forecast page.