Keiyo Gas Co., Ltd. (9539) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥43.32B
• Dividend Yield: 1.81%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.40K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.26
• Revenue Growth: 0.93%
• EPS Growth: 1212.45%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 1,267
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Regulated Gas
• EPS (TTM): -10.23
• Shares Outstanding: 32,805,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,290
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,400
• PEG Ratio: 0.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.38
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.32
• P/FCF Ratio: -54.44
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥1,356.00 ▲(14.92% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance and a stable balance sheet, offset by persistently weak free cash flow. Technically the stock is in an uptrend, but overbought signals elevate near-term risk. Valuation is moderate with a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Regulated utility business model

As a regulated city‑gas provider serving households, businesses and industry in the Keiyo region, the company benefits from predictable, contract‑based demand and tariff frameworks. That underpins stable recurring revenue and long‑term cash visibility versus commoditized peers.

Manageable leverage and growing equity base

A modest debt-to-equity ratio and steadily growing assets/equity provide financial stability and flexibility for necessary network investment. This balance-sheet strength reduces refinancing pressure and supports capex and regulatory obligations over the medium term.

Top-line rebound and improving profitability

A strong revenue recovery and margin improvement after recent weakness indicate operational recovery and demand normalization. If sustained, this trend can rebuild earnings power and improve the company’s ability to fund investments and service obligations over multiple quarters.

Negative Factors

Persistent negative free cash flow

Repeated negative free cash flow constrains internal funding for dividends, debt paydown and network capex, forcing reliance on external financing or equity. Over time, weak cash conversion limits strategic flexibility and increases vulnerability to funding cost increases.

Modest margins and low returns

Subdued net and operating margins and low ROE reduce the firm’s capacity to generate shareholder returns and build retained capital. Structurally low profitability provides less buffer against cost shocks or regulatory headwinds and slows equity growth long term.

Exposure to procurement cost and demand cycles

Earnings depend on the spread between regulated tariffs and volatile upstream gas costs plus regional demand patterns. Tariff lag, commodity price swings, or weaker industrial demand in the concentrated Chiba area can compress margins and produce multi‑period earnings pressure.

Keiyo Gas Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Keiyo Gas Co., Ltd. engages in the production, supply, and sale of gas in northwest of Chiba Prefecture, Japan. It is also involved in the sale of gas equipment; and provision of gas fitting services. It provides its services to residential, commercial, industrial, and other customers. Keiyo Gas Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1926 and is headquartered in Ichikawa, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Keiyo Gas Co., Ltd. generates revenue primarily through the sale of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and city gas to its diverse customer base, which includes households, businesses, and industrial facilities. The company has established long-term contracts with suppliers and customers, ensuring a steady flow of income. Key revenue streams include not only the direct sale of gas but also service charges associated with installation, maintenance, and customer support. Additionally, Keiyo Gas benefits from partnerships and collaborations with local governments and other entities in energy efficiency projects and infrastructure development, which further bolster its earnings. The company's focus on enhancing energy services and expanding its customer base in the face of rising demand for cleaner energy solutions also contributes significantly to its financial performance.

Keiyo Gas Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability and revenue improved in 2025 (rebound after 2024 softness) and leverage is manageable, but margins remain modest and cash-flow quality is the main weakness: free cash flow has been negative in most years, limiting financial flexibility despite better recent operating cash flow.

Income Statement

Revenue rebounded in 2025 (up ~61% vs. 2024) after a decline in 2024, indicating improving top-line momentum but with recent volatility. Profitability has recovered from the very weak 2022 result: 2025 net margin improved to ~2.7% (vs. ~1.4% in 2024 and ~0.2% in 2022), and operating profitability also strengthened. That said, current margins remain modest versus 2020–2021 levels, suggesting earnings are still below prior-cycle strength.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears manageable with debt-to-equity around ~0.31 in 2025 (generally ~0.23–0.32 across the period), supported by a sizable equity base. Assets and equity have grown steadily over time, which adds balance-sheet stability. The main watch-out is the upward step in total debt in 2025 versus 2024, and overall returns on equity have been low in recent years (where provided), reflecting subdued profitability rather than balance-sheet strain.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow improved in 2025 (~¥13.7B) and was strong in 2023, but cash generation has been inconsistent year-to-year. Free cash flow was negative in most years (including 2025 and 2024), pointing to ongoing investment or working-capital pressure that limits cash available to shareholders or debt reduction. The cash-flow conversion versus earnings is mixed, with notably weak periods (e.g., negative free cash flow relative to net income in multiple years).

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	116.95B	117.67B	115.61B	122.85B	118.76B	89.71B
Gross Profit	36.99B	37.61B	34.91B	36.41B	34.96B	36.21B
EBITDA	14.68B	14.31B	11.91B	12.21B	10.24B	11.68B
Net Income	3.35B	3.21B	1.62B	1.46B	219.00M	1.74B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	161.00B	178.05B	168.25B	161.10B	147.46B	131.77B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	19.07B	22.03B	20.14B	26.18B	16.12B	14.74B
Total Debt	26.53B	31.48B	24.63B	28.79B	27.95B	19.28B
Total Liabilities	61.84B	73.52B	69.38B	68.56B	57.94B	46.34B
Stockholders Equity	95.75B	101.10B	95.62B	89.40B	86.88B	82.84B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-697.00M	-6.21B	15.32B	-4.86B	-5.10B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	13.70B	10.01B	28.33B	6.91B	8.67B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-13.09B	-9.65B	-25.06B	-15.63B	-17.18B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	2.28B	-1.02B	-2.63B	10.10B	6.68B

Keiyo Gas Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1180.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:9539, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1180 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1235.15, below the 50-day MA of 1202.41, and above the 200-day MA of 1168.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 36.77 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 86.81 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.41 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:9539.

Keiyo Gas Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
1663	81 Outperform	¥128.22B	16.62	―	1.22%	-3.37%	19.40%
9536	76 Outperform	¥94.79B	9.46	9.07%	3.61%	9.39%	77.24%
9543	75 Outperform	¥109.00B	11.03	8.29%	3.89%	1.08%	37.11%
9534	74 Outperform	¥79.09B	6.32	―	2.88%	2.77%	10.64%
9537	69 Neutral	¥20.01B	6.44	―	2.18%	6.66%	―
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
9539	62 Neutral	¥43.32B	13.31	―	1.81%	0.93%	1212.45%