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Japan Airlines Co
(9201)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
¥3,307.00
▲(18.66% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:08/04/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (profitability recovery and strengthening balance sheet) and supportive technicals (price above major moving averages with positive MACD). Valuation further lifts the score due to a low P/E and solid dividend yield, partially offset by ongoing leverage and only moderate cash-flow conversion.
Positive Factors
Profitability Recovery
Sustained mid-single-digit net margins and double-digit operating margins reflect a structural recovery in core airline economics. Higher margins improve resilience through cycles, support reinvestment and dividends, and indicate better unit economics from pricing, network optimization and cost control.
Negative Factors
Meaningful Absolute Debt
Despite improvement, the absolute debt burden remains large for a cyclical carrier, limiting downside protection. High nominal debt increases interest and refinancing risk, reducing headroom to absorb shocks or pursue opportunistic investments during weaker demand periods.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability Recovery
Sustained mid-single-digit net margins and double-digit operating margins reflect a structural recovery in core airline economics. Higher margins improve resilience through cycles, support reinvestment and dividends, and indicate better unit economics from pricing, network optimization and cost control.
Read all positive factors
Japan Airlines Co (9201) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥1.33T
Dividend Yield3.14%
Average Volume (3M)1.81M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.4
Beta (1Y)0.81
Revenue Growth9.20%
EPS Growth-3.00%
CountryJP
Employees39,076
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)267.09
Shares Outstanding437,143,500
10 Day Avg. Volume2,045,210
30 Day Avg. Volume1,811,506
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.28
Price to Book (P/B)0.86
Price to Sales (P/S)0.55
P/FCF Ratio5.98
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥3,264.44Price Target Upside17.13% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)211.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥2.17T
Japan Airlines Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Japan Airlines Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, offers both scheduled and unscheduled air transport services across Japan and internationally. The company organizes its operations across two primary segments: Air Transportation and Other...
How the Company Makes Money
Japan Airlines makes money mainly by selling air transportation and related services across several revenue streams:
1) Passenger transportation (core revenue)
- Ticket sales: The largest driver is revenue from passenger fares on domestic and int...
Japan Airlines Co Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 03, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a strong operational and financial start to the fiscal year: revenue growth (>10% YoY), record-high Q1 EBIT (JPY45.5 billion, >2x YoY), Q1 beat vs plan (JPY18 billion), healthy cash and positive free cash flow. Growth was broad-based across international, domestic, cargo and LCC operations, and fuel/FX tailwinds supported profits. Notable challenges include higher operating expenses (+JPY29.2 billion YoY), domestic unit price pressure (unit price -5% YoY), some segment shortfalls versus plan (travel and mileage accounting effects), FX valuation losses on CVC holdings, and possible short-term impacts from changes to fuel subsidy schemes. On balance, the positives — strong top-line and large EBIT improvement, cash strength and plan beat — outweigh the negatives, though management highlighted ongoing market uncertainties and the need to execute Q2 to maintain momentum.Positive Updates
Strong Q1 Revenue Growth
Revenues for Q1 were JPY471 billion, an increase of over 10% YoY driven by strong international passenger demand and domestic stimulation efforts.
Negative Updates
Rising Operating Expenses and Modest Unit Profit
Total operating expenses increased JPY29.2 billion YoY to JPY435.4 billion driven by scale, passenger volume and higher personnel costs. Reported unit profit is low at JPY0.9, with variable costs rising alongside passenger/supply growth.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q1 Revenue Growth
Revenues for Q1 were JPY471 billion, an increase of over 10% YoY driven by strong international passenger demand and domestic stimulation efforts.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reaffirmed its full-year EBIT target of JPY200.0 billion and said Q2 is expected to be “in line with plan,” after a strong Q1 (FY2026 Q1) that beat plan by roughly JPY18.0 billion: revenues JPY471.0 billion (+>10% YoY), EBIT JPY45.5 billion (highest-ever Q1; +JPY23.3 billion YoY), revenue growth contribution +JPY47.0 billion and expense increases +JPY29.2 billion (total operating expenses JPY435.4 billion); market moves (Singapore kerosene -18.8%; JPY145.3 vs JPY153.7) added about JPY7.0 billion to EBIT while underlying gains were JPY16.3 billion. Segment metrics: international revenues JPY184.9 billion (+11.4%; pax volume +11.7%; load factor 86.1%, +5.4 pts), domestic revenues JPY134.2 billion (+7.6%; pax +13.3%; load factor 79.5%; unit price -5%), Q2 international pax guided +6% YoY (unit price incl. surcharge -3 pts, net ex-surcharge +2 pts) and domestic pax +5% YoY (unit price -1%); Q1 fuel expense JPY94.0 billion (-JPY0.5 billion YoY), unit profit JPY0.9, cash JPY950.2 billion, capital adequacy 38.7%, net debt/equity negative, operating cash inflow JPY81.0 billion and free cash flow JPY56.7 billion.Japan Airlines Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.07T | 2.01T | 1.84T | 1.65T | 1.38T | 682.71B |
| Gross Profit | 1.45T | 1.45T | 1.02T | 904.00B | 708.84B | 240.19B |
| EBITDA | 357.36B | 390.93B | 330.07B | 302.07B | 224.09B | -59.02B |
| Net Income | 115.88B | 137.60B | 107.04B | 95.53B | 34.42B | -177.55B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.37T | 3.20T | 2.79T | 2.65T | 2.52T | 2.38T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.16T | 1.01T | 749.03B | 713.87B | 639.25B | 494.23B |
| Total Debt | 827.91B | 875.92B | 896.02B | 887.29B | 925.50B | 928.46B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.88T | 1.86T | 1.78T | 1.70T | 1.66T | 1.53T |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.45T | 1.29T | 975.06B | 909.95B | 816.29B | 799.74B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 192.36B | 186.12B | 85.94B | 138.84B | 169.10B | -268.61B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 407.45B | 388.55B | 375.92B | 356.91B | 286.59B | -107.30B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -238.04B | -193.28B | -286.90B | -199.06B | -116.43B | -167.20B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 29.90B | 61.13B | -53.52B | -94.03B | -28.48B | 356.47B |
Japan Airlines Co Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | ¥1.52T | 8.72 | ― | 2.20% | 16.11% | 11.39% | |
72 Outperform | ¥1.33T | 11.43 | 11.29% | 3.27% | 9.20% | -3.00% | |
70 Outperform | ¥649.92B | 12.17 | 8.88% | 1.69% | 4.15% | -26.13% | |
66 Neutral | ¥1.33T | 11.28 | 10.79% | 3.28% | 6.41% | -2.64% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
50 Neutral | ¥7.25B | -9.31 | ― | ― | 5.12% | -117.24% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Japan Airlines Co Corporate Events
Japan Airlines’ Q1 Profit Slumps Despite Double‑Digit Revenue Growth
Aug 3, 2026
Japan Airlines reported revenue of ¥523.7 billion for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, up 11.2% year on year, but profit before tax plunged, with interim profit attributable to owners falling 80.2% to ¥5.4 billion and comprehensive incom...
Japan Airlines to Dispose Treasury Shares for Performance-Linked Executive Pay
Jul 8, 2026
Japan Airlines has approved the disposal of 124,241 shares of treasury stock, worth about 384.8 million yen at 3,097 yen per share, to 11 directors and 29 executive officers under its performance-linked share-based remuneration plan for the FY 202...
Japan Airlines Tightens Executive Pay Link to Performance With New Share-Based Plan
Jul 8, 2026
Japan Airlines has approved the grant of performance-linked share-based remuneration units to six internal directors and 27 executive officers. The plan uses performance share units that will convert into common shares based on achievement against...
JAL Reshapes Jetstar Japan Ownership as Qantas Exits and DBJ Enters
Jul 8, 2026
Through a newly approved agreement, JAL and its partners will restructure the shareholder base of equity-method affiliate Jetstar Japan, bringing in Development Bank of Japan as a new investor while Qantas Group exits via a share buyback and subse...
Japan Airlines Withdraws Shelf Registration After Completing ¥200 Billion Hybrid Stock Offering
Jun 5, 2026
Japan Airlines has withdrawn its shelf registration for its Series 1 Bond-Type Class Stock after fully completing the planned offering under that program. The company had registered up to ¥200 billion of this hybrid equity instrument and has ...
Japan Airlines Sets Dividend Terms for ¥200 Billion Bond-Type Preferred Issue to Fund Fleet Upgrade
May 19, 2026
Japan Airlines has set the annual dividend rate for its Series 1 Bond-Type Class Stock, offering a fixed 4.000% per annum on preferred dividends through fiscal years ending on or before March 31, 2032. For fiscal years ending on or after April 1, ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.