ORIX (8591) AI Stock Analysis

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ORIX

(OTC:8591)

Rating:77Outperform

Price Target:

¥3,771.00

▲(9.15%Upside)

ORIX's stock score is driven by strong technical analysis indicating bullish momentum and a solid financial performance profile with consistent revenue and profit growth. The valuation is reasonable, and the company is focused on long-term strategic improvement, although recent earnings call insights highlight challenges such as impairments and missed forecasts.

Positive Factors

Profit Growth

Management has a slightly more bullish stance now, as they emphasized base profit expansion and have set higher targets than before.

Shareholder Value

The company plans annual share buybacks of ¥100bn, which could positively impact shareholder value.

Negative Factors

Return on Equity

The return on equity is estimated to fall short of 10%, which affects the price-to-book ratio applied in the valuation.

Valuation

The price objective has been lowered from ¥3,730 to ¥3,620 due to revised estimates and assumptions.

ORIX (8591) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Market Cap

¥3.74T

Dividend Yield3.47%

Average Volume (3M)2.77M

Price to Earnings (P/E)11.2

Beta (1Y)0.92

Revenue Growth2.15%

EPS Growth3.00%

CountryJP

Employees33,807

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength68

IndustryFinancial - Credit Services

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)148.32

Shares Outstanding1,162,962,300

10 Day Avg. Volume2,324,070

30 Day Avg. Volume2,765,873

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)0.00

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

¥3,606.15

Price Target Upside4.37% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering3

ORIX Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionORIX Corporation provides diversified financial services in Japan, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Australasia, the Middle East, and internationally. The company's Corporate Financial Services and Maintenance Leasing segment is involved in the finance and fee; leasing and rental of automobiles, electronic measuring instruments, and ICT-related equipment businesses; and provision of life insurance and environment and energy-related products and services. Its Real Estate segment develops, rents, and manages real estate properties; operates facilities; manages residential condominiums and office building; and provides construction contracting, real estate brokerage, and real estate investment advisory services. The company's PE Investment and Concession segment engages in the private equity (PE) investment and concession businesses. Its Environment and Energy segment provides renewable energy; ESCO; retails electric power; sells solar panels and battery electricity storage systems; and recycling and waste management services. The company's Insurance segment sells life insurance products through agents, banks, and other financial institutions, as well as face-to-face and online. Its Banking and Credit segment provides banking and consumer finance services. The company's Aircraft and Ships segment engages in the aircraft leasing and management, and ship-related finance and investment businesses. Its ORIX USA segment offers finance, investment, and asset management services. The company's ORIX Europe segment provides equity and fixed income asset management services. Its Asia and Australia segment offers finance and investment businesses. The company was formerly known as Orient Leasing Co., Ltd. and changed its name to ORIX Corporation in 1989. ORIX Corporation was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes MoneyORIX Corporation generates revenue through a diversified business model, with key revenue streams across various sectors. The company earns from leasing and lending services where it provides equipment leasing, automobile leasing, and loans to corporations. In real estate, ORIX makes money through the development, management, and sale of properties, as well as through real estate investment trusts (REITs). The asset management division contributes to earnings via management fees from investment funds and advisory services. ORIX also derives income from its retail banking and insurance operations, offering a range of financial products to individuals, including savings accounts, loans, and insurance policies. Significant partnerships and strategic acquisitions enable ORIX to expand its market presence and enhance its revenue capabilities across all sectors.

ORIX Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: 2.46%|

Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mixed picture with record net income and increased investment gains offset by significant impairments and missed net income forecasts. The company's strategic focus on ROE improvement and shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks indicates a forward-looking approach, despite current challenges.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Net Income

ORIX achieved a record net income of JPY 351.6 billion, up 2% from the previous year, despite falling short of the forecasted JPY 390 billion.

Increased Investment Gains

The investment category segment profits increased by JPY 56.2 billion compared to the previous year.

ROE Improvement Target

ORIX aims to achieve an ROE of 11% by March 2028 and 15% by March 2035 as part of its long-term vision.

Increased Dividend and Share Buyback

The full year dividend will be JPY 120.01 per share, with an increase in share buybacks to JPY 100 billion, double the usual amount.

Negative Updates

Impairments Affecting Profit

Total impairments of JPY 53.1 billion on a pretax basis were recorded due to conservative forecasts and uncertainties in the market.

Missed Forecasted Net Income

The net income fell short by 9.8% compared to the forecast of JPY 390 billion.

Unachieved Greenko Sale

The sale of Greenko was not executed, affecting the ability to meet the full year forecast net income.

Company Guidance

During the call, ORIX Corporation provided a detailed financial overview for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, reporting a consolidated net income of JPY 351.6 billion, which was a 2% increase from the previous year but 9.8% below the forecast. The company recorded a record high full-year ROE of 8.8% and pretax profit of JPY 480.5 billion, driven by strong performances in segments like PE, Concessions, Aircraft and Ships, and Corporate Financial Services. Despite facing challenges, such as a JPY 53.1 billion impairment, the firm realized investment gains from exits in domestic PE and increased profits from equity method investees. The upcoming fiscal year aims for a net income of JPY 380 billion, supported by plans to continue growing base profit and enhancing shareholder returns through a dividend per share of JPY 132 and share buybacks totaling JPY 100 billion. The company also emphasized its strategic focus on disciplined portfolio management, sophisticated risk management, and new business creation, with an ambitious long-term vision targeting an ROE of 15% and a net profit of JPY 1 trillion by 2035.

ORIX Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ORIX exhibits a strong financial profile with consistent revenue and profit growth, supported by stable margins and effective cost management. The balance sheet reflects solid financial health with reasonable leverage and strong equity ratios. However, challenges in maintaining consistent free cash flow suggest areas for improvement in cash flow stability.

Income Statement

Very Positive

ORIX has demonstrated strong revenue growth, particularly a significant increase from 2021 to 2025. The gross profit margin has improved, indicating efficient cost management. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, with the net profit margin reflecting consistent profitability. The company has shown resilience in a fluctuating market, with stable income growth over multiple years.

Balance Sheet

Positive

ORIX's balance sheet shows a balanced leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio that is reasonable for the industry. The company maintains a healthy equity ratio, indicating strong financial stability. The return on equity is solid, reflecting effective use of shareholder funds, although it has experienced slight fluctuations. Overall, the balance sheet is strong, with potential for further optimization.

Cash Flow

Positive

The company has faced challenges in maintaining consistent free cash flow, with periods of negative free cash flow affecting the overall cash flow health. However, the operating cash flow remains strong and exceeds net income, indicating operational efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio suggests potential areas for improvement to enhance cash flow stability.

Breakdown	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.87T	2.81T	1.63T	1.58T	1.42T
Gross Profit	1.20T	1.17T	-18.56B	368.00M	-58.52B
EBITDA	926.89B	834.22B	732.43B	687.82B	603.52B
Net Income	351.63B	346.13B	290.34B	317.38B	192.38B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	16.87T	16.32T	15.27T	14.27T	13.56T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.21T	1.05T	1.29T	971.10B	959.91B
Total Debt	6.28T	6.20T	5.72T	4.87T	4.72T
Total Liabilities	12.69T	12.30T	11.84T	10.90T	10.46T
Stockholders Equity	4.09T	3.94T	3.36T	3.26T	3.03T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-57.48B	42.53B	-166.99B	186.07B	341.72B
Operating Cash Flow	1.30T	1.24T	913.09B	1.10T	1.10T
Investing Cash Flow	-1.31T	-1.37T	-1.10T	-808.85B	-1.20T
Financing Cash Flow	149.32B	-85.48B	438.31B	-306.62B	39.88B

ORIX Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price3455.00

Price Trends

50DMA

3195.86

Positive

100DMA

3071.52

Positive

200DMA

3154.87

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

62.24

Negative

RSI

69.75

Neutral

STOCH

79.04

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8591, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3455 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3336.35, above the 50-day MA of 3195.86, and above the 200-day MA of 3154.87, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 62.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8591.

ORIX Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8591	77 Outperform	¥3.74T	11.25	8.65%	3.47%	2.15%	3.00%
Sector *	62 Neutral	C$15.13B	6.84	19.06%	5.62%	33.28%	-19.39%
AK5	―	€4.05B	12.34	8.40%	3.45%	―	―
CSASF	―	$4.35B	7.10	9.28%	5.00%	―	―
MIUFF	―	$10.98B	12.25	7.65%	0.24%	―	―
8425	72 Outperform	¥328.77B	6.89		4.01%	19.11%	8.89%
8566	61 Neutral	¥170.77B	10.93		3.25%	4.07%	12.68%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JP:8591

ORIX

3,410.00

785.27

29.92%

DE:AK5

ACOM Co

2.52

0.50

24.75%

CSASF

Credit Saison Co

19.70

2.09

11.87%

MIUFF

Mitsubishi UFJ Lease & Finance Company

7.67

1.57

25.74%

JP:8425

Mizuho Leasing Company, Limited

1,163.00

321.78

38.25%

JP:8566

Ricoh Leasing Company,Ltd.

5,510.00

1,237.16

28.95%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 12, 2025