ORIX (8591) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥4.94T
• Dividend Yield: 3.3%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.50M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.06
• Revenue Growth: 6.21%
• EPS Growth: 11.62%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 33,807
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 105.97
• Shares Outstanding: 1,124,106,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,655,530
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,504,356
• PEG Ratio: 3.26
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.86
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.23
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.93
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥5,350.00
• Price Target Upside: 1.17% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 407.56
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥3.20T

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥5,495.00 ▲(3.91% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/12/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/12/26

The score is driven primarily by strong underlying financial performance (profitability and balance sheet strength) and supportive valuation (low P/E and solid dividend yield). These positives are tempered by weaker technical momentum (negative MACD, sub-20DMA trading) and cash flow inconsistency.

Positive Factors

Diversified Business Model

ORIX’s multi-segment model (leasing, lending, asset management, real estate, insurance, renewables) reduces dependency on any single cycle. Structural diversification supports steadier fee income and cross-selling, improving earnings resilience over the medium term.

Revenue Growth and Margin Improvement

Consistent top-line growth and rising gross/operating margins through 2025 indicate durable operational improvements. Improved margins expand internal funding for reinvestment and shareholder returns, lowering profit sensitivity to modest revenue volatility over several quarters.

Healthy Balance Sheet

A reasonable debt-to-equity profile and solid equity ratio provide ORIX with capacity to originate new financings, absorb asset shocks, and pursue strategic investments without forced asset sales, supporting financial flexibility in the medium term.

Negative Factors

Inconsistent Free Cash Flow

Periods of negative or inconsistent FCF limit ORIX’s ability to reliably fund growth, repay debt, or increase distributions. Even with operating cash above net income, FCF volatility can force reprioritization of capital allocation and raise refinancing timing risk.

Credit and Funding Sensitivity

A meaningful lending and lease book creates structural exposure to funding-cost swings, credit deterioration, and yield compression. Adverse macro or rate moves can depress net interest margins and increase provisions, affecting earnings across multiple quarters.

Volatility from Principal Investments

ORIX’s use of principal and private-equity investments introduces earnings volatility tied to realizations and mark-to-market moves. Such variability can materially swing reported profits and capital availability, complicating medium-term forecasting and allocation.

ORIX Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ORIX Corporation provides diversified financial services in Japan, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Australasia, the Middle East, and internationally. The company's Corporate Financial Services and Maintenance Leasing segment is involved in the finance and fee; leasing and rental of automobiles, electronic measuring instruments, and ICT-related equipment businesses; and provision of life insurance and environment and energy-related products and services. Its Real Estate segment develops, rents, and manages real estate properties; operates facilities; manages residential condominiums and office building; and provides construction contracting, real estate brokerage, and real estate investment advisory services. The company's PE Investment and Concession segment engages in the private equity (PE) investment and concession businesses. Its Environment and Energy segment provides renewable energy; ESCO; retails electric power; sells solar panels and battery electricity storage systems; and recycling and waste management services. The company's Insurance segment sells life insurance products through agents, banks, and other financial institutions, as well as face-to-face and online. Its Banking and Credit segment provides banking and consumer finance services. The company's Aircraft and Ships segment engages in the aircraft leasing and management, and ship-related finance and investment businesses. Its ORIX USA segment offers finance, investment, and asset management services. The company's ORIX Europe segment provides equity and fixed income asset management services. Its Asia and Australia segment offers finance and investment businesses. The company was formerly known as Orient Leasing Co., Ltd. and changed its name to ORIX Corporation in 1989. ORIX Corporation was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

ORIX makes money through multiple, diversified revenue streams tied to financing, fee-based services, and investment returns across its operating segments. (1) Financing and leasing: ORIX earns interest income and lease-related income by providing equipment/asset leasing and other financing solutions to corporate customers; it also generates gains and recurring income from managing leased assets and related services. (2) Lending and credit: It generates interest income and related fees from loans and other credit products (e.g., structured or asset-based financing), with profitability influenced by funding costs, credit performance, and asset yields. (3) Asset management and fees: ORIX earns management fees and performance-related fees by managing assets for clients through asset management platforms and funds; it can also earn advisory/arrangement fees connected to investment vehicles and structured transactions. (4) Principal investments and private equity: ORIX invests its own capital in businesses and funds, generating earnings from dividends, equity-method income, realized gains on sales/exits, and valuation changes (where applicable under accounting rules). (5) Real estate: It earns rental income and property-related revenues from operating, leasing, developing, managing, and selling real estate assets; it may also capture development profits and asset disposition gains. (6) Insurance-related earnings: Through insurance operations, ORIX earns premium income and underwriting results, alongside investment income generated from investing insurance float; results depend on claims experience, pricing, and investment performance. (7) Environmental and infrastructure-related businesses: ORIX earns operating income from businesses such as renewable energy and related infrastructure by developing/owning/operating projects and receiving contracted or market-based sales revenues (e.g., electricity sales), plus potential development and asset monetization gains. Across these streams, ORIX’s earnings are supported by scale in financing, diversified asset portfolios, disciplined capital allocation, and the ability to originate transactions through its domestic and international networks; specific major partnerships contributing to earnings are null.

ORIX Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong income statement (revenue growth and improved margins) and solid balance sheet stability, partially offset by weaker cash flow quality with inconsistent/negative free cash flow periods.

Income Statement

ORIX has demonstrated strong revenue growth, particularly a significant increase from 2021 to 2025. The gross profit margin has improved, indicating efficient cost management. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, with the net profit margin reflecting consistent profitability. The company has shown resilience in a fluctuating market, with stable income growth over multiple years.

Balance Sheet

ORIX's balance sheet shows a balanced leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio that is reasonable for the industry. The company maintains a healthy equity ratio, indicating strong financial stability. The return on equity is solid, reflecting effective use of shareholder funds, although it has experienced slight fluctuations. Overall, the balance sheet is strong, with potential for further optimization.

Cash Flow

The company has faced challenges in maintaining consistent free cash flow, with periods of negative free cash flow affecting the overall cash flow health. However, the operating cash flow remains strong and exceeds net income, indicating operational efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio suggests potential areas for improvement to enhance cash flow stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.13T	2.87T	2.81T	2.66T	2.51T	2.29T
Gross Profit	1.14T	1.20T	1.17T	1.04T	940.79B	812.44B
EBITDA	1.21T	944.66B	916.36B	813.04B	743.78B	655.33B
Net Income	469.53B	351.63B	346.13B	290.34B	317.38B	192.38B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	18.13T	16.87T	16.32T	15.29T	14.27T	13.56T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.42T	1.23T	1.05T	1.26T	971.10B	959.91B
Total Debt	6.71T	6.54T	6.46T	6.01T	5.16T	5.04T
Total Liabilities	13.40T	12.69T	12.30T	11.67T	10.90T	10.46T
Stockholders Equity	4.58T	4.09T	3.94T	3.54T	3.26T	3.03T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	1.20T	1.17T	777.66B	990.65B	1.04T
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	1.27T	1.25T	881.23B	1.03T	1.08T
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-1.31T	-1.36T	-1.14T	-784.99B	-1.18T
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	146.27B	-100.99B	480.70B	-330.47B	20.19B

ORIX Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 5288.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8591, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5288 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5087.85, above the 50-day MA of 5004.02, and above the 200-day MA of 4068.26, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -89.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:8591.

ORIX Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8425	72 Outperform	¥397.28B	8.49	―	3.65%	21.22%	-2.77%
8591	72 Outperform	¥4.94T	10.66	10.32%	3.30%	6.21%	11.62%
8593	72 Outperform	¥2.05T	10.19	8.92%	3.20%	3.42%	22.06%
8566	70 Outperform	¥185.26B	11.64	―	3.30%	7.36%	-3.80%
8572	69 Neutral	¥746.49B	10.93	7.97%	3.48%	6.65%	-4.35%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
8570	66 Neutral	¥341.34B	14.65	3.46%	3.04%	10.31%	-40.64%

ORIX Corporate Events

ORIX Reshapes Management and Structure With New Units and Leadership Shift

ORIX Corporation has announced a series of management and organizational changes effective March 1, 2026, as it refines its corporate structure across business and control units. Executive Officer Reiko Okubo will narrow her remit to focus on the CEO’s Office within the Corporate Strategy and Management Unit, reflecting a clearer separation of responsibilities for new business activities.

In Japan and the Asia-Pacific business, ORIX will set up new Pension Business Promotion and Healthcare & Public Solution departments under its Corporate Business Headquarters, while also creating a new Johoku Area and Johoku Branch Office to sharpen regional coverage. The Corporate Strategy and Management Unit will abolish its New Business Development Department and split Investor Relations and Sustainability into two standalone departments, and the Risk Management Unit will rename its Credit and Investment Information Management Department to Risk Information Management Department, moves that collectively aim to streamline oversight, clarify accountability, and align the organization with evolving client, investor, and regulatory demands.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8591) stock is a Buy with a Yen5999.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ORIX stock, see the JP:8591 Stock Forecast page.