ORIX Corporation (JP:8591)
:8591
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ORIX
(8591)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
¥5,312.00
▲(0.45% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is driven primarily by strong underlying financial performance and a supportive earnings update (high progress vs. full-year guidance plus an expanded buyback), reinforced by an attractive valuation (low P/E and solid yield). Offsetting these positives are weaker technical signals (bearish momentum and trading below key moving averages) and earnings-quality/risk flags cited on the call, including reliance on one-off gains and ongoing credit/valuation uncertainties.
Positive Factors
Diversified segment profit growth
ORIX’s profit growth is broad-based across Finance, Operations and Investments, reducing reliance on any single business. Durable diversification across leasing, asset management, real estate and insurance supports more stable revenue and earnings streams over the next 2–6 months, cushioning cyclical shocks.
Negative Factors
Earnings reliance on one-off gains
Material portions of recent profit were driven by non-recurring disposals (e.g., asset sales), raising earnings volatility. If disposal volumes slow, reported profits and distributable cash could weaken, complicating sustainable dividend and buyback planning and reducing predictability of core earnings.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified segment profit growth
ORIX’s profit growth is broad-based across Finance, Operations and Investments, reducing reliance on any single business. Durable diversification across leasing, asset management, real estate and insurance supports more stable revenue and earnings streams over the next 2–6 months, cushioning cyclical shocks.
Read all positive factors
ORIX (8591) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥5.09T
Dividend Yield3.3%
Average Volume (3M)3.50M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.7
Beta (1Y)1.06
Revenue Growth6.21%
EPS Growth11.62%
CountryJP
Employees33,807
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)105.97
Shares Outstanding1,124,106,600
10 Day Avg. Volume2,655,530
30 Day Avg. Volume3,504,356
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.26
Price to Book (P/B)0.86
Price to Sales (P/S)1.23
P/FCF Ratio2.93
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥5,103.50Price Target Upside-3.49% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)422.69
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥3.34T
ORIX Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ORIX Corporation provides diversified financial services in Japan, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Australasia, the Middle East, and internationally. The company's Corporate Financial Services and Maintenance Leasing segment is involved in the finance...
How the Company Makes Money
ORIX makes money through multiple, diversified revenue streams tied to financing, fee-based services, and investment returns across its operating segments. (1) Financing and leasing: ORIX earns interest income and lease-related income by providing...
ORIX Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 09, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strong set of near-term financial results with record third-quarter cumulative net income, large year-over-year pretax and segment profit gains, active capital recycling and a stepped-up share buyback program. Many of the headline improvements were supported by sizeable one-off investment and disposal gains, while management emphasized continued caution around legacy credit issues (particularly in ORIX USA), banking bond losses, insurance liability valuation dynamics, and a meaningful near-term weakening of inbound tourism from Mainland China impacting Kansai airport and regional real estate. Management preserved the full-year net income forecast and signaled ongoing scrutiny of portfolios and plans for capital-efficient growth.Positive Updates
Record Third-Quarter Cumulative Net Income
Net income for the 9-month period was JPY 389.7 billion, up JPY 117.9 billion year-over-year; achieved 89% of the revised full-year net income forecast of JPY 440 billion.
Negative Updates
Inbound Tourism Impact from China
Mainland Chinese passenger numbers weakened (management cited an approximate ~40% year-over-year decline in recent data), and late-January airline cancellation policies create continued downside pressure on Kansai Airport concession earnings and nearby real estate operations; management expects sustained downward pressure in the near term and potential impact on the next fiscal year.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Third-Quarter Cumulative Net Income
Net income for the 9-month period was JPY 389.7 billion, up JPY 117.9 billion year-over-year; achieved 89% of the revised full-year net income forecast of JPY 440 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ORIX reiterated no change to its full‑year net income guidance of JPY 440.0 billion (9‑month net income JPY 389.7bn, +JPY 117.9bn Y/Y, 89% progress), and reported pretax profits of JPY 567.7bn (+JPY 184.3bn Y/Y). Segment performance was strong: Finance JPY 145.5bn (+8%, 81% progress vs FY plan), Operations JPY 189.5bn (+17%, 79% progress) and Investments JPY 261.4bn (+100%), with total segment profits JPY 596.4bn (+40% Y/Y) and a JPY 28.7bn difference to pretax profit. Capital recycling generated JPY 196.6bn of capital gains, with cash inflows from divestments of JPY 790bn and new investment outflows of JPY 700bn; the share buyback was expanded to JPY 150bn and JPY 128.1bn (85%) had been repurchased by end‑January. Balance‑sheet and capital metrics cited: total assets +JPY 1.2594tn year‑on‑year (ex‑FX +JPY 800bn), long‑/short‑term debt and deposits +JPY 363.4bn, insurance contract liabilities −JPY 234.2bn, shareholders’ equity +JPY 495.2bn (equity ratio 25.3%; leverage excl. deposits ~1.5x), employed‑capital ratio around 90% with a recalculated risk model (maximum‑loss parameter reviewed from ~91% to ~81%); payout target ~39% (≈JPY 153/share on the JPY 440bn forecast). Management said it will continue to pursue sustainable growth and improved capital efficiency and take timely actions in Q4.ORIX Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.13T | 2.87T | 2.81T | 2.66T | 2.51T | 2.29T |
| Gross Profit | 1.14T | 1.20T | 1.17T | 1.04T | 940.79B | 812.44B |
| EBITDA | 1.21T | 944.66B | 916.36B | 813.04B | 743.78B | 655.33B |
| Net Income | 469.53B | 351.63B | 346.13B | 290.34B | 317.38B | 192.38B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 18.13T | 16.87T | 16.32T | 15.29T | 14.27T | 13.56T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.42T | 1.23T | 1.05T | 1.26T | 971.10B | 959.91B |
| Total Debt | 6.71T | 6.54T | 6.46T | 6.01T | 5.16T | 5.04T |
| Total Liabilities | 13.40T | 12.69T | 12.30T | 11.67T | 10.90T | 10.46T |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.58T | 4.09T | 3.94T | 3.54T | 3.26T | 3.03T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 1.20T | 1.17T | 777.66B | 990.65B | 1.04T |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 1.27T | 1.25T | 881.23B | 1.03T | 1.08T |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -1.31T | -1.36T | -1.14T | -784.99B | -1.18T |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 146.27B | -100.99B | 480.70B | -330.47B | 20.19B |
ORIX Technical Analysis
Positive
5288.00
Price Trends
4919.10
Negative
4651.37
Positive
4088.23
Positive
Market Momentum
-22.98
Negative
53.82
Neutral
84.09
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8591, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5288 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4717.15, above the 50-day MA of 4919.10, and above the 200-day MA of 4088.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -22.98 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.09 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8591.
ORIX Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | ¥400.93B | 8.49 | ― | 3.65% | 21.22% | -2.77% | |
72 Outperform | ¥2.11T | 10.19 | 8.92% | 3.20% | 3.42% | 22.06% | |
71 Outperform | ¥5.09T | 10.66 | 10.32% | 3.30% | 6.21% | 11.62% | |
69 Neutral | ¥738.66B | 10.93 | 7.97% | 3.48% | 6.65% | -4.35% | |
68 Neutral | ¥185.57B | 11.64 | ― | 3.30% | 7.36% | -3.80% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
61 Neutral | ¥328.82B | 18.06 | 3.46% | 3.04% | 10.31% | -40.64% |
* Financial Sector Average
JP:8591
ORIX
4,879.00
2,271.14
87.09%
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ORIX Corporate Events
ORIX Reshapes Management and Structure With New Units and Leadership Shift
Feb 27, 2026
ORIX Corporation has announced a series of management and organizational changes effective March 1, 2026, as it refines its corporate structure across business and control units. Executive Officer Reiko Okubo will narrow her remit to focus on the ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.