ORIX (8591) AI Stock Analysis

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ORIX

(OTC:8591)

Rating:76Outperform

Price Target:

¥4,175.00

▲(5.70% Upside)

ORIX's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are the primary drivers of its high score. The earnings call reinforced confidence with robust profit growth and strategic investments. Technical indicators suggest caution due to overbought conditions, but the overall outlook remains positive.

ORIX (8591) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Market Cap

$4.26T

Dividend Yield3.05%

Average Volume (3M)2.70M

Price to Earnings (P/E)12.0

Beta (1Y)0.94

Revenue Growth3.16%

EPS Growth2.08%

CountryJP

Employees33,807

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength74

IndustryFinancial - Credit Services

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)94.63

Shares Outstanding1,162,962,300

10 Day Avg. Volume2,314,650

30 Day Avg. Volume2,696,880

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.08

Enterprise Value/Revenue3.08

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.37

Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.27

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$3,763.82

Price Target Upside-4.71% Downside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering4

ORIX Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionORIX Corporation provides diversified financial services in Japan, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Australasia, the Middle East, and internationally. The company's Corporate Financial Services and Maintenance Leasing segment is involved in the finance and fee; leasing and rental of automobiles, electronic measuring instruments, and ICT-related equipment businesses; and provision of life insurance and environment and energy-related products and services. Its Real Estate segment develops, rents, and manages real estate properties; operates facilities; manages residential condominiums and office building; and provides construction contracting, real estate brokerage, and real estate investment advisory services. The company's PE Investment and Concession segment engages in the private equity (PE) investment and concession businesses. Its Environment and Energy segment provides renewable energy; ESCO; retails electric power; sells solar panels and battery electricity storage systems; and recycling and waste management services. The company's Insurance segment sells life insurance products through agents, banks, and other financial institutions, as well as face-to-face and online. Its Banking and Credit segment provides banking and consumer finance services. The company's Aircraft and Ships segment engages in the aircraft leasing and management, and ship-related finance and investment businesses. Its ORIX USA segment offers finance, investment, and asset management services. The company's ORIX Europe segment provides equity and fixed income asset management services. Its Asia and Australia segment offers finance and investment businesses. The company was formerly known as Orient Leasing Co., Ltd. and changed its name to ORIX Corporation in 1989. ORIX Corporation was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes MoneyORIX Corporation generates revenue through a diversified business model, with key revenue streams across various sectors. The company earns from leasing and lending services where it provides equipment leasing, automobile leasing, and loans to corporations. In real estate, ORIX makes money through the development, management, and sale of properties, as well as through real estate investment trusts (REITs). The asset management division contributes to earnings via management fees from investment funds and advisory services. ORIX also derives income from its retail banking and insurance operations, offering a range of financial products to individuals, including savings accounts, loans, and insurance policies. Significant partnerships and strategic acquisitions enable ORIX to expand its market presence and enhance its revenue capabilities across all sectors.

ORIX Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025

(Q1-2026)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance with significant net income and pretax profit growth. Successful capital gains and a robust investment pipeline indicate positive momentum. However, challenges in the U.S. market, particularly due to tariffs and interest rates, and a decline in certain segments' profits were noted. The full-year forecast remains under review due to uncertainties.

Q1-2026 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Net Income Growth

Net income for the first quarter was JPY 107.3 billion, an increase of JPY 20.6 billion year-on-year, representing a 24% growth.

Increased ROE and Pretax Profit

Annualized ROE was 10.4%. Pretax profit increased by JPY 35.3 billion year-on-year to JPY 455.5 billion.

Successful Capital Gains

Total capital gain of JPY 45.1 billion from multiple exits, including the sale of Hotel Universal Park Vida.

Share Buyback Progress

Completed acquisition of JPY 40.9 billion out of total JPY 100 billion share buyback program.

Robust Investment Pipeline

Investment pipeline is strong at JPY 2 trillion, focusing on operational investments.

Tourism Growth in Kansai

Kansai International Airport experienced growth in international passenger numbers, and performance is steady.

Strong Performance in Finance and Operations

Finance profit increased by 5% and operations profit increased by 5% year-on-year.

Negative Updates

Challenges in U.S. Business

ORIX USA reported a decrease in profits due to tariffs and high interest rates impacting real estate and investment operations.

Decline in Aircraft and Ship Segment Profits

Segment profit decreased by JPY 1.9 billion, a 16% decline, reaching JPY 9.9 billion due to market factors.

Impairment in Private Equity

Impairment of investment in an equity method affiliate in the U.S. due to tariff impacts.

Under Review Financial Forecast

Full year financial forecast is under review due to market uncertainties and skewed earnings towards the first half.

Company Guidance

During the ORIX Corporation's first-quarter earnings call for the fiscal year ending March 2026, several key financial metrics were highlighted. The company reported a net income of JPY 107.3 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of JPY 20.6 billion, with an annualized ROE of 10.4%. The pretax profit rose to JPY 455.5 billion, up by JPY 35.3 billion from the previous year. The company's capital recycling efforts recorded a capital gain of JPY 45.1 billion, with cash inflows from sales at JPY 130 billion and outflows from new investments at JPY 150 billion. Shareholder returns included the completion of acquiring JPY 40.9 billion of a JPY 100 billion share buyback program. The company also maintained a dividend payout policy of 39% of first-half net income. Additionally, ORIX detailed significant divestments and investments, including the sale of shares in Greenko for USD 1.282 billion and a new investment in AM Green Luxembourg. The company emphasized its strategic focus on maintaining flexibility in shareholder returns and investment strategies amid macroeconomic uncertainties.

ORIX Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ORIX has shown strong revenue and profit growth with stable margins and effective cost management. The balance sheet is solid, though cash flow management could be optimized for further strength.

Income Statement

Very Positive

ORIX has demonstrated strong revenue growth, particularly a significant increase from 2021 to 2025. The gross profit margin has improved, indicating efficient cost management. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, with the net profit margin reflecting consistent profitability. The company has shown resilience in a fluctuating market, with stable income growth over multiple years.

Balance Sheet

Positive

ORIX's balance sheet shows a balanced leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio that is reasonable for the industry. The company maintains a healthy equity ratio, indicating strong financial stability. The return on equity is solid, reflecting effective use of shareholder funds, although it has experienced slight fluctuations. Overall, the balance sheet is strong, with potential for further optimization.

Cash Flow

Positive

The company has faced challenges in maintaining consistent free cash flow, with periods of negative free cash flow affecting the overall cash flow health. However, the operating cash flow remains strong and exceeds net income, indicating operational efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio suggests potential areas for improvement to enhance cash flow stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.87T	2.87T	2.81T	1.63T	1.58T	1.42T
Gross Profit	1.20T	1.20T	1.17T	-18.56B	368.00M	-58.52B
EBITDA	953.72B	926.89B	834.22B	732.43B	687.82B	603.52B
Net Income	351.63B	351.63B	346.13B	290.34B	317.38B	192.38B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	16.87T	16.87T	16.32T	15.27T	14.27T	13.56T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	840.36B	1.21T	1.05T	1.29T	971.10B	959.91B
Total Debt	6.28T	6.28T	6.20T	5.72T	4.87T	4.72T
Total Liabilities	12.69T	12.69T	12.30T	11.84T	10.90T	10.46T
Stockholders Equity	4.09T	4.09T	3.94T	3.36T	3.26T	3.03T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-57.48B	42.53B	-166.99B	186.07B	341.72B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	1.30T	1.24T	913.09B	1.10T	1.10T
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-1.31T	-1.37T	-1.10T	-808.85B	-1.20T
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	149.32B	-85.48B	438.31B	-306.62B	39.88B

ORIX Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price3950.00

Price Trends

50DMA

3578.00

Positive

100DMA

3291.08

Positive

200DMA

3225.47

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

93.80

Positive

RSI

69.15

Neutral

STOCH

76.78

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8591, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3950 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3840.85, above the 50-day MA of 3578.00, and above the 200-day MA of 3225.47, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 93.80 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 69.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8591.

ORIX Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8591	76 Outperform	$4.26T	11.99	9.23%	3.05%	3.16%	2.08%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.10B	11.52	9.93%	3.73%	9.70%	1.14%
AK5	―	€4.44B	13.61	8.40%	―	―	―
CSASF	―	$4.16B	9.54	9.55%	3.45%	―	―
MIUFF	―	$12.12B	11.68	8.77%	3.03%	―	―
8425	72 Outperform	¥371.17B	7.76		3.56%	19.11%	8.89%
8566	61 Neutral	¥181.25B	11.62		3.06%	4.07%	12.68%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JP:8591

ORIX

3,950.00

639.10

19.30%

DE:AK5

ACOM Co

2.78

0.58

26.36%

CSASF

Credit Saison Co

27.49

3.71

15.60%

MIUFF

Mitsubishi UFJ Lease & Finance Company

8.55

1.57

22.49%

JP:8425

Mizuho Leasing Company, Limited

1,318.00

357.28

37.19%

JP:8566

Ricoh Leasing Company,Ltd.

5,860.00

968.47

19.80%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2025