ORIX (8591) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥5.84T
• Dividend Yield: 3.3%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.50M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.03
• Revenue Growth: 6.21%
• EPS Growth: 11.62%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 33,807
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 105.97
• Shares Outstanding: 1,162,962,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,655,530
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,504,356
• PEG Ratio: 3.26
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.86
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.23
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.93
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥4,970.00
• Price Target Upside: -6.01% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 405.22
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥3.16T

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥6,135.00 ▲(16.02% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/11/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/11/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (especially revenue/profitability and a solid balance sheet) and a constructive earnings outlook with increased dividend and buyback plans. Technicals are supportive but appear stretched, and valuation remains favorable with a moderate P/E and ~3% yield; weaker free-cash-flow consistency is the key offset.

Positive Factors

Diversified business model

ORIX's revenue mix across leasing, lending, asset management, real estate, insurance and renewables reduces single-cycle dependence. This durable diversification cushions earnings, supports stable fee and interest income, and enables capital allocation across cycles over the medium term.

Strong profitability and shareholder returns

Upgraded profit guidance and higher dividend policy reflect sustainable operational strength and excess capital generation. Consistent margin improvement and ROE expansion signal the business can fund growth while returning cash, strengthening long-term investor-aligned capital allocation.

Scaling asset management via strategic JV

The USD 2.5bn PE fund with Qatar Investment Authority marks a structural shift to third-party capital. This expands fee-bearing AUM, lowers capital strain from principal investments, and institutionalizes capital recycling—improving return profile and recurring fee revenue over time.

Negative Factors

Inconsistent free cash flow

Periodic negative free cash flow undermines the company's ability to self-fund investments and sustain payouts without asset sales or higher leverage. Over multiple quarters this can force timing-dependent capital recycling and reduce resilience to funding stress or cyclical downturns.

ORIX USA segment stress

Material losses and impairments in ORIX USA reveal geographic and credit exposure in real estate financing. Recurring credit costs can depress consolidated earnings, consume capital cushions, and limit ability to scale US operations until asset-quality and recovery improve.

Rising project execution costs (Osaka IR)

Significant cost escalation on a large development ties up capital and compresses long-term returns. Even if management expects limited profit impact, persistent inflation and execution risk can reduce IRR, extend payback timelines, and increase financing needs for large projects.

ORIX Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ORIX Corporation provides diversified financial services in Japan, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Australasia, the Middle East, and internationally. The company's Corporate Financial Services and Maintenance Leasing segment is involved in the finance and fee; leasing and rental of automobiles, electronic measuring instruments, and ICT-related equipment businesses; and provision of life insurance and environment and energy-related products and services. Its Real Estate segment develops, rents, and manages real estate properties; operates facilities; manages residential condominiums and office building; and provides construction contracting, real estate brokerage, and real estate investment advisory services. The company's PE Investment and Concession segment engages in the private equity (PE) investment and concession businesses. Its Environment and Energy segment provides renewable energy; ESCO; retails electric power; sells solar panels and battery electricity storage systems; and recycling and waste management services. The company's Insurance segment sells life insurance products through agents, banks, and other financial institutions, as well as face-to-face and online. Its Banking and Credit segment provides banking and consumer finance services. The company's Aircraft and Ships segment engages in the aircraft leasing and management, and ship-related finance and investment businesses. Its ORIX USA segment offers finance, investment, and asset management services. The company's ORIX Europe segment provides equity and fixed income asset management services. Its Asia and Australia segment offers finance and investment businesses. The company was formerly known as Orient Leasing Co., Ltd. and changed its name to ORIX Corporation in 1989. ORIX Corporation was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

ORIX generates revenue through various streams primarily centered around its financial services and asset management operations. Key revenue sources include leasing income from equipment and real estate, interest income from loans and financing services, and management fees from its investment funds. The company has established partnerships with various industries, enabling it to provide tailored financial solutions and expand its clientele. Additionally, its investments in renewable energy projects contribute to long-term revenue through energy sales and government incentives, reinforcing ORIX's commitment to sustainable development while generating consistent cash flow.

ORIX Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong income statement (82) with solid growth and robust margins, supported by a healthy balance sheet (75) with reasonable leverage. The main constraint is weaker cash-flow quality (68) driven by inconsistent/periodically negative free cash flow despite strong operating cash flow.

Income Statement

ORIX has demonstrated strong revenue growth, particularly a significant increase from 2021 to 2025. The gross profit margin has improved, indicating efficient cost management. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, with the net profit margin reflecting consistent profitability. The company has shown resilience in a fluctuating market, with stable income growth over multiple years.

Balance Sheet

ORIX's balance sheet shows a balanced leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio that is reasonable for the industry. The company maintains a healthy equity ratio, indicating strong financial stability. The return on equity is solid, reflecting effective use of shareholder funds, although it has experienced slight fluctuations. Overall, the balance sheet is strong, with potential for further optimization.

Cash Flow

The company has faced challenges in maintaining consistent free cash flow, with periods of negative free cash flow affecting the overall cash flow health. However, the operating cash flow remains strong and exceeds net income, indicating operational efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio suggests potential areas for improvement to enhance cash flow stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.13T	2.87T	2.81T	2.66T	2.51T	2.29T
Gross Profit	1.14T	1.20T	1.17T	1.04T	940.79B	812.44B
EBITDA	1.21T	944.66B	916.36B	813.04B	743.78B	655.33B
Net Income	469.53B	351.63B	346.13B	290.34B	317.38B	192.38B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	18.13T	16.87T	16.32T	15.29T	14.27T	13.56T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.42T	1.23T	1.05T	1.26T	971.10B	959.91B
Total Debt	6.71T	6.54T	6.46T	6.01T	5.16T	5.04T
Total Liabilities	13.40T	12.69T	12.30T	11.67T	10.90T	10.46T
Stockholders Equity	4.58T	4.09T	3.94T	3.54T	3.26T	3.03T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	1.20T	1.17T	777.66B	990.65B	1.04T
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	1.27T	1.25T	881.23B	1.03T	1.08T
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-1.31T	-1.36T	-1.14T	-784.99B	-1.18T
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	146.27B	-100.99B	480.70B	-330.47B	20.19B

ORIX Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5288.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8591, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5288 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5226.90, above the 50-day MA of 4887.48, and above the 200-day MA of 3916.26, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 194.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8591.

ORIX Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8591	76 Outperform	¥5.84T	12.97	10.32%	3.30%	6.21%	11.62%
8425	72 Outperform	¥423.67B	9.00	―	3.65%	21.22%	-2.77%
8593	72 Outperform	¥2.15T	11.72	8.92%	3.20%	3.42%	22.06%
8566	70 Outperform	¥189.88B	14.20	―	3.30%	7.36%	-3.80%
8572	69 Neutral	¥793.18B	14.72	7.91%	3.48%	6.65%	-4.35%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
8570	66 Neutral	¥382.46B	23.43	3.05%	3.04%	10.31%	-40.64%

ORIX Corporate Events

ORIX Announces Leadership Changes to Drive Long-term Growth

ORIX Corporation has announced significant leadership changes, appointing Hidetake Takahashi as the new Chief Executive Officer effective January 1, 2026, while Makoto Inoue will transition to a Corporate Advisor role by June 2026. These changes are part of ORIX’s strategy to implement a new management structure aimed at driving long-term growth, reflecting the company’s ongoing commitment to adapt and thrive in a competitive global market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8591) stock is a Hold with a Yen4640.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ORIX stock, see the JP:8591 Stock Forecast page.