Matsuda Sangyo Co., Ltd. (7456) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥180.41B
• Dividend Yield: 1.72%
• Average Volume (3M): 76.92K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.95
• Revenue Growth: 32.43%
• EPS Growth: 39.26%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 1,624
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial - Distribution
• EPS (TTM): 194.81
• Shares Outstanding: 26,908,580
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 126,350
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 76,916
• PEG Ratio: 0.32
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.90
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.19
• P/FCF Ratio: -84.72
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 438.5
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥565.00B

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥7,899.00 ▲(49.60% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/26/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/26/26

The score is held back mainly by weak cash flow quality (negative operating and free cash flow despite earnings) and margin compression, partially offset by strong technical uptrend signals and a reasonable P/E with a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Diversified business model

Matsuda Sangyo runs two distinct operating segments—precious metals recycling and food ingredient distribution—creating diversified revenue streams. The recycling/refining network and food wholesaling logistics deliver recurring industrial flows and reduce dependence on any single end market.

Strong top-line and EPS growth

Material revenue and EPS growth metrics reflect expanding sales momentum and improving profitability drivers. Sustained top-line expansion helps amortize fixed costs, supports scale economies across processing and distribution, and underpins medium-term earnings resilience if maintained.

Moderate leverage with acceptable returns

Leverage remains moderate after recent increases and equity has grown, supporting capital stability. A ROE near 11% indicates the business is generating acceptable returns on capital, giving the company structural capacity to access financing and invest while maintaining creditor confidence.

Negative Factors

Weak cash conversion

Operating and free cash flows are materially negative despite reported profits, signaling poor earnings-to-cash conversion. Persistent negative cash flow suggests working-capital volatility or timing gaps, increasing reliance on external funding and constraining capital allocation for capex, dividends, or buybacks.

Margin compression

Significant decline in gross and EBIT margins points to weaker pricing power or rising input costs. Margin erosion reduces operational buffers, making profitability more sensitive to commodity cycles and cost shocks, and limits internal cash available for reinvestment or deleveraging over the medium term.

Rising balance-sheet intensity

An increasing debt ratio alongside asset growth signals higher balance-sheet intensity and somewhat less financial flexibility. Greater leverage amplifies interest and refinancing risks in cyclical periods, potentially forcing conservative capital allocation or costly liability management if cash flows remain weak.

Matsuda Sangyo Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MATSUDA SANGYO Co., Ltd. engages in the precious metals, environmental, and food businesses in Japan. It offers wiring connection, film forming, precious metal, plating, and catalyst materials; jewelry materials and products; precious metal ingots; and instruments for clean rooms, measuring equipment, industrial water treatment systems, and chlorine producing equipment. The company is also involved in the cleaning of semiconductor manufacturing equipment. In addition, it engages in the neutralization and dehydration of waste acids and alkali; incineration of waste oils, acids, alkali, and sludge and waste plastics; crushing of waste plastics, metals, glass, and ceramics; and treatment of waste from the photographic industry. Further, the company sells vacuum thermal recycling equipment and dental materials; collects silver from photographic industry wastes and removed caps; recycles precious metals; and manufactures, imports, and sells medical treatment machinery and equipment, as well as medical articles. Additionally, it offers surimi; marine products, such as fresh and frozen fish, various shellfish, mollusks, and seaweed; agricultural products, including eggs, milk protein, rice, materials for bakeries, canned fruits, dried mashed potatoes, sugar, starch, food additives, dairy products, edible oils, and wheat and bread flour, as well as fresh, frozen, dried, and canned vegetables; and livestock products comprising meat, portion cut meat, beef trimmings, and beef tissues. The company was founded in 1935 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

The company makes money mainly through two operating segments. (1) Precious metals: Matsuda Sangyo generates revenue by purchasing precious metals and precious-metal-bearing materials (including recyclable sources), processing/refining or arranging processing through its network, and selling precious metals and related products to industrial users and other customers. Earnings in this segment are driven by transaction volumes, the spread between purchase costs and sales prices, and fees/margins associated with refining, recycling, and related services. Results can be influenced by precious metal market prices and customer production activity. (2) Food-related business: Matsuda Sangyo earns revenue by wholesaling/supplying food ingredients and products to business customers, capturing distribution margins and service value from procurement, logistics, and sales to food manufacturers, restaurants, and other commercial users. If more specific disclosures such as segment revenue mix, named major customers/partners, or contract structures are not available from the provided prompt, they are null.

Matsuda Sangyo Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong TTM revenue growth (+11.8%) and positive profitability (EBIT margin ~2.9%, net margin ~2.0%) are positives, but margin compression versus prior years and especially negative operating/free cash flow (OCF -14.1B, FCF -17.9B) materially reduce the financial quality score.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is up strongly (+11.8%) and profitability remains positive (EBIT margin ~2.9%, net margin ~2.0%). However, margins have compressed materially versus earlier years (gross margin down from ~11.0% in FY2022 to ~7.2% in TTM, and EBIT margin down from ~5.1% to ~2.9%), indicating weaker pricing power and/or cost pressure despite solid top-line growth.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains moderate with debt-to-equity at ~0.36 in TTM (up from ~0.22–0.26 in FY2022–FY2023), and equity has grown over time, supporting balance sheet stability. Returns are acceptable (ROE ~10.9% TTM), but the rising debt load alongside expanding assets suggests increasing balance-sheet intensity and a bit less financial flexibility than in prior years.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the key weakness: TTM operating cash flow is negative (-14.1B) and free cash flow is also negative (-17.9B), despite positive net income. This continues a pattern of volatile/often weak conversion (free cash flow negative in most years shown), raising concerns around working-capital swings and the reliability of earnings translating into cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	598.11B	468.84B	360.53B	351.03B	272.29B	231.56B
Gross Profit	41.37B	35.20B	30.08B	33.30B	29.95B	24.47B
EBITDA	21.18B	16.79B	13.22B	16.48B	16.02B	10.92B
Net Income	12.49B	9.46B	7.29B	9.70B	9.56B	6.10B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	206.33B	168.90B	148.94B	129.21B	115.80B	104.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	11.37B	12.88B	14.57B	11.76B	11.38B	8.80B
Total Debt	53.60B	33.47B	29.40B	19.24B	16.39B	17.30B
Total Liabilities	101.04B	68.76B	57.56B	44.56B	41.38B	38.66B
Stockholders Equity	104.72B	99.74B	91.11B	84.48B	74.30B	65.49B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-17.91B	-1.06B	-5.94B	-1.13B	4.54B	-3.41B
Operating Cash Flow	-14.09B	2.54B	1.83B	10.65B	7.03B	185.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-5.24B	-6.24B	-7.96B	-12.19B	-2.52B	-3.18B
Financing Cash Flow	16.14B	210.00M	8.08B	1.38B	-2.26B	261.00M

Matsuda Sangyo Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 5280.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:7456, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 5280 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7600.50, below the 50-day MA of 6604.40, and above the 200-day MA of 4656.56, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 397.81 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:7456.

Matsuda Sangyo Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8061	79 Outperform	¥90.06B	14.20	―	3.38%	10.74%	-26.50%
3176	78 Outperform	¥48.38B	5.27	―	3.87%	2.66%	-11.41%
6454	73 Outperform	¥319.95B	21.53	―	1.68%	7.95%	28.36%
8052	73 Outperform	¥55.75B	13.47	―	3.00%	16.06%	31.78%
7456	67 Neutral	¥180.41B	6.77	―	1.72%	32.43%	39.26%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
9830	61 Neutral	¥158.33B	9.98	―	2.42%	9.74%	6.48%

Matsuda Sangyo Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

Matsuda Sangyo Lifts Full-Year Forecast on Precious Metals Rally and Strong Food Margins

Matsuda Sangyo Co., Ltd. has sharply raised its full-year consolidated earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, driven by strong performance in both its precious metals and food business segments. The company now projects net sales of ¥650 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent of ¥14.7 billion, representing gains of 18.2% and 27.8% respectively versus its previous outlook.

Management cited a significant rise in precious metal prices, which has boosted net sales and operating profit beyond initial expectations, as well as improved profit margins in the food business due to stronger sales of products aligned with customer needs. The upward revision underscores Matsuda Sangyo’s improved earnings power compared with the prior fiscal year and signals strengthened financial momentum that may enhance its competitive position and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7456) stock is a Hold with a Yen7402.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Matsuda Sangyo Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:7456 Stock Forecast page.