Trusco Nakayama Corporation (9830) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥166.37B
• Dividend Yield: 2.42%
• Average Volume (3M): 120.09K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.73
• Revenue Growth: 9.74%
• EPS Growth: 6.48%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 1,704
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Industrial - Distribution
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 66,008,740
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 121,960
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 120,090
• PEG Ratio: -7.52
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.85
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.50
• P/FCF Ratio: -15.37
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥2,460.00 ▲(2.33% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance: steady growth and a sound balance sheet are offset by weaker cash conversion and negative free cash flow in the last two years. Valuation is supportive with a low P/E and moderate dividend yield, while technicals are cautious as the stock trades below key shorter-term moving averages with weak momentum.

Positive Factors

Recurring MRO demand (business model)

Trusco Nakayama's core MRO distribution model sells consumables, replacement parts and tools that are repeatedly purchased by manufacturers and contractors. This recurring demand creates predictable baseline revenue, supports long-term customer relationships, and favors scale benefits in purchasing, inventory and logistics.

Steady multi-year revenue growth

Consistent top-line growth through 2025 shows sustained market demand and successful distribution scale. Persistent revenue expansion supports investment in inventory, warehousing and service capabilities, enabling better supplier terms and deeper customer penetration that reinforce competitive position over multiple quarters.

Sound balance sheet and rising equity

The company has grown equity alongside assets, providing a stronger capital base to fund operations and capex. Moderate leverage preserves borrowing flexibility and resilience, allowing Trusco to support inventory and logistics investments needed for service levels without extreme solvency pressure over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Weak cash generation / negative FCF

Declining operating cash flow and consecutive negative free cash flow reduce financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns. If working-capital drag or elevated capex persists, the company may need external financing or cutbacks, weakening its ability to sustainably fund growth and inventory needs.

Margin compression

Eroding margins despite revenue gains suggest pricing pressure, rising input costs, or unfavorable product mix. Sustained margin compression would limit free cash generation and returns, making it harder to convert sales into durable profitability and undermining the structural economics of the distribution model.

Rising leverage without better returns

Material increase in debt has not translated into higher shareholder returns, indicating suboptimal capital deployment. Higher leverage raises interest and refinancing risk, reducing downside buffers and flexibility to absorb operational shocks or fund working-capital cycles over the medium term.

Trusco Nakayama Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Trusco Nakayama Corporation operates as a specialized trading company in Japan and internationally. The company engages in the wholesale of machine tools, distribution equipment, environmental safety equipment, and other equipment; and metal products, as well as planning and development of the products under the Trusco brand name. It sells its products to dealers of machine tools, welding consumables, electrical materials, architectural hardware, and tubing materials, as well as do-it-yourself stores, home centers, and other customers. The company was formerly known as Nakayama Kiko Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Trusco Nakayama Corporation in 1994. Trusco Nakayama Corporation was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Trusco Nakayama Corporation generates revenue primarily through the wholesale distribution of its extensive product lineup. The company's revenue model is based on the sale of tools and equipment to retailers and industrial clients, often leveraging bulk purchasing to secure competitive pricing. Key revenue streams include direct sales to businesses in the manufacturing and construction sectors, as well as partnerships with various suppliers to expand their product offerings. Additionally, Trusco Nakayama benefits from maintaining a strong inventory management system, allowing for efficient logistics and timely delivery, which in turn fosters customer loyalty and repeat business. The company may also engage in promotional activities and special contracts that further enhance its revenue potential.

Trusco Nakayama Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Steady multi-year revenue growth and generally solid operating profitability, supported by a sound balance sheet. Offsetting this, margins have compressed, leverage has increased, and cash generation is a major weakness with declining operating cash flow and negative free cash flow in 2024–2025.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily from 2021–2025 (with 2020 the only down year), reaching 320,043B in 2025 with a re-acceleration in growth. Profitability is solid for an industrial distributor, with EBIT margins generally in the mid-to-high single digits and EBITDA margin holding near ~9% in recent years. The key weakness is margin compression: gross margin and net margin have trended down versus 2023–2024 levels, and net income was roughly flat from 2024 to 2025 despite higher sales—signaling rising costs and/or mix pressure.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks sound with equity increasing consistently over time (to 186,252B in 2025), supporting asset growth. Leverage is moderate, with debt-to-equity moving up to ~0.43 in 2025 from ~0.31–0.32 in 2023–2024 as total debt rose materially. Returns on equity are steady in the high single digits, but dipped in 2025 versus 2024—suggesting incremental leverage has not translated into improved shareholder returns yet.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the main weak spot. Operating cash flow declined notably in 2025 (8,183B) versus 2023–2024 levels, and it covered only a small portion of earnings, implying weaker cash conversion. Free cash flow has turned negative in both 2024 and 2025 (after being positive in 2022–2023), indicating elevated investment needs and/or working-capital drag, which reduces financial flexibility if sustained.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	309.80B	320.04B	295.02B	268.15B	246.45B	226.83B
Gross Profit	60.55B	61.18B	61.68B	57.52B	52.16B	40.74B
EBITDA	30.52B	28.39B	26.07B	24.24B	22.04B	24.02B
Net Income	17.33B	15.88B	16.09B	12.27B	10.63B	11.60B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	298.21B	308.36B	270.29B	244.88B	225.21B	223.07B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	56.69B	47.59B	41.35B	43.28B	39.40B	41.47B
Total Debt	80.00B	80.00B	56.50B	50.00B	45.00B	52.00B
Total Liabilities	118.45B	122.11B	96.30B	84.16B	74.20B	80.40B
Stockholders Equity	179.75B	186.25B	174.00B	160.72B	151.00B	142.67B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-10.31B	-6.27B	1.69B	7.25B	7.33B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	8.18B	13.02B	14.80B	12.18B	15.93B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-21.57B	-18.27B	-13.11B	-5.17B	-4.60B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	19.64B	3.24B	1.93B	-9.11B	-2.24B

Trusco Nakayama Corporation Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2404.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:9830, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2404 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2506.40, below the 50-day MA of 2458.82, and above the 200-day MA of 2286.53, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:9830.

Trusco Nakayama Corporation Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8061	79 Outperform	¥103.38B	16.20	―	3.38%	10.74%	-26.50%
3176	78 Outperform	¥54.06B	10.49	―	3.87%	2.66%	-11.41%
8052	73 Outperform	¥60.27B	12.05	―	3.00%	16.06%	31.78%
7128	66 Neutral	¥54.68B	29.50	―	3.24%	-2.85%	-56.68%
9902	64 Neutral	¥75.57B	15.78	―	3.17%	5.95%	23.97%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
9830	61 Neutral	¥166.37B	10.48	―	2.42%	9.74%	6.48%

Trusco Nakayama Corporation Corporate Events

Trusco Nakayama Raises Dividend Forecast Under Unique Payout Policy

Trusco Nakayama has revised its dividend forecast, raising the expected annual dividend for the current fiscal year to 58.50 yen per share from the previously projected 55.50 yen. The year-end dividend is now forecast at 28.50 yen per share, while the second-quarter dividend remains unchanged at 30.00 yen.

The change reflects activation of the company’s unique Trusco Select Dividend policy, which allows up to 10% of planned depreciation expenses to be added to the dividend source when the annual dividend would otherwise fall below the prior year. This mechanism is designed to reconcile continued heavy investment in digital and logistics capabilities with shareholder expectations for dividends, signaling a commitment to both growth and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9830) stock is a Buy with a Yen2873.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trusco Nakayama Corporation stock, see the JP:9830 Stock Forecast page.

Trusco Nakayama Raises Year-End Dividend, Lifts Annual Payout to ¥60

Trusco Nakayama Corporation’s board has approved a year-end dividend of 29.50 yen per share for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, up from the previously forecast 28.50 yen and exceeding the prior year’s year-end dividend of 28.00 yen. This brings the total annual dividend to 60.00 yen per share, compared with 54.00 yen in the previous fiscal year, based on net income per share of 238.72 yen and a consolidated payout ratio of 25%.

The company reaffirmed its dividend policy of targeting stable shareholder returns linked to net income attributable to parent company shareholders, with a baseline consolidated payout ratio of 25% and performance-linked increases when profits surpass certain thresholds. It also outlined mechanisms to cushion dividend volatility, including discretionary additions tied to depreciation expenses if earnings are heavily affected by extraordinary items, signaling a strong commitment to predictability and continuity in dividend payments.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9830) stock is a Buy with a Yen2873.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trusco Nakayama Corporation stock, see the JP:9830 Stock Forecast page.

Trusco Nakayama Lifts Sales and Operating Profit but Sees Slight Earnings Decline in 2025

Trusco Nakayama reported consolidated net sales of ¥320.0 billion for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, up 8.5% year on year, with operating profit rising 14.2% to ¥22.8 billion and ordinary profit up 12.4% to ¥22.5 billion. Profit attributable to owners of parent slipped 1.3% to ¥15.9 billion, as higher profitability was offset by factors that narrowed the bottom line.

The company’s equity increased to ¥186.3 billion and total assets to ¥308.4 billion, though the equity ratio declined to 60.4% from 64.4%. Operating cash flow decreased while financing cash flow turned strongly positive, lifting cash and cash equivalents to ¥47.4 billion, and Trusco raised its annual dividend to ¥60 per share for 2025 but forecasts a lower ¥55.5 per share in 2026 amid projections of modest sales growth and lower profits.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9830) stock is a Buy with a Yen2873.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trusco Nakayama Corporation stock, see the JP:9830 Stock Forecast page.