Hoden Seimitsu Kako Kenkyusho Co., Ltd. (6469) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥41.97B
• Dividend Yield: 0.45%
• Average Volume (3M): 108.50K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 36.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.51
• Revenue Growth: 13.61%
• EPS Growth: 94.37%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 649
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Industrial - Machinery
• EPS (TTM): 13.31
• Shares Outstanding: 10,953,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 124,420
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 108,496
• PEG Ratio: 0.33
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.76
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.01
• P/FCF Ratio: -44.98
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 60.9
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥15.10B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥4,295.00 ▲(62.32% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/15/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/15/26

The score is primarily supported by improving operating performance and a generally reasonable balance sheet, but is meaningfully pressured by weak cash flow (negative free cash flow) and a demanding valuation (P/E ~39.9). Technically, the uptrend is strong, yet overbought signals (RSI/Stoch ~85) temper the outlook.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth demonstrates durable demand for the company’s precision machining services, supporting capacity utilization and longer-term customer relationships. Over 2–6 months this trend underpins recurring orders, better planning, and scalable fixed-cost absorption that supports earnings stability.

Improving Margins

Rising gross and operating margins indicate better operational efficiency and pricing power in core machining activities. These structural margin improvements increase cash generation potential and resilience to cost swings, supporting sustained profitability and funding for reinvestment over the medium term.

Reasonable Balance Sheet

Moderate leverage and a solid equity base provide financial flexibility and reduce solvency risk. A near-0.8 D/E and healthy ROE support capacity for selective investments or cyclical buffering without immediate refinancing pressure, preserving strategic optionality across the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Negative Free Cash Flow

Negative FCF and a low cash conversion ratio erode internal funding for capex, working capital and debt reduction. Reliance on external funding or equity to support growth or distributions increases, reducing financial flexibility and raising execution risk over the next 2–6 months if cash generation does not recover.

Rising Liabilities

An upward trend in liabilities increases interest and principal obligations and heightens leverage risk if earnings falter. Persistently rising liabilities can constrain investment choices and necessitate prioritizing debt servicing, which weakens the company's ability to execute strategic initiatives over the medium term.

Profitability Volatility

Variable net income indicates earnings are sensitive to demand cycles, pricing, or cost swings. This reduces predictability of cash flows and complicates budgeting, capital allocation and risk assessment, making sustained margin expansion and steady reinvestment plans harder to rely on over coming quarters.

Hoden Seimitsu Kako Kenkyusho Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hoden Seimitsu Kako Kenkyusho Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells electric discharge machining, industrial gas turbine parts, and other metal products. It also offers aircraft engine parts, servo press machines, surface treatment solutions, dies and moldings, and automotive parts. The company also provides dies-molding, and extrusion dies for aluminum and ceramic honeycomb. Hoden Seimitsu Kako Kenkyusho Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1961 and is headquartered in Yokohama, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

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Hoden Seimitsu Kako Kenkyusho Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth (+5.95%) and improving profitability (net margin up to 4.52%, stronger EBIT/EBITDA margins) support the score, but it is held back by negative free cash flow in 2025, a low operating cash flow to net income ratio (0.71), and rising liabilities despite moderate leverage (debt-to-equity 0.79).

Income Statement

Hoden Seimitsu Kako Kenkyusho Co., Ltd. has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 5.95% increase in the latest year. The gross profit margin for 2025 is robust at 23.32%, and the net profit margin has significantly improved to 4.52% from a previous low in 2023. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also strengthened, indicating improved operational efficiency. However, fluctuations in net income over the years suggest some instability in profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.79 for 2025, reflecting moderate leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is healthy at 7.93%, showcasing effective utilization of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 41.91%, indicating a solid equity base. However, the total liabilities have shown an increasing trend, which could pose risks if not managed well.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges with free cash flow, which was negative in 2025, showing a decline from the previous positive figure in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.71, suggesting less cash conversion from earnings. Such cash flow volatility may impact future investments and financial flexibility.

Breakdown	TTM	Feb 2025	Feb 2024	Feb 2023	Feb 2022	Feb 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	14.05B	12.90B	12.16B	11.68B	12.98B	10.93B
Gross Profit	3.55B	3.01B	2.42B	1.82B	2.68B	1.46B
EBITDA	1.93B	1.42B	898.10M	399.02M	1.47B	585.16M
Net Income	845.70M	583.22M	231.88M	-1.29B	1.41B	-2.84B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	17.76B	17.55B	17.97B	14.83B	15.55B	15.42B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.58B	2.60B	4.13B	1.68B	1.95B	1.52B
Total Debt	5.12B	5.80B	6.45B	5.91B	5.10B	7.04B
Total Liabilities	9.18B	9.29B	10.75B	9.95B	9.29B	10.44B
Stockholders Equity	7.69B	7.36B	6.44B	4.13B	5.61B	4.37B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-288.37M	184.41M	-945.58M	553.91M	-433.41M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	415.03M	1.02B	-129.29M	1.88B	584.13M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-619.22M	-782.15M	-806.76M	601.29M	-1.01B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-1.45B	2.13B	550.98M	-2.05B	600.88M

Hoden Seimitsu Kako Kenkyusho Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 2646.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6469, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2646 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4028.12, below the 50-day MA of 3636.82, and above the 200-day MA of 2333.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 106.89 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:6469.

Hoden Seimitsu Kako Kenkyusho Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
6317	78 Outperform	¥15.86B	15.61	―	3.41%	-3.27%	572.42%
6118	74 Outperform	¥60.50B	24.26	―	2.54%	2.00%	39.80%
6143	69 Neutral	¥69.40B	10.78	7.00%	3.02%	15.78%	―
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
6125	62 Neutral	¥28.84B	-53.89	―	3.56%	-3.85%	-45.64%
6469	62 Neutral	¥41.97B	36.78	―	0.45%	13.61%	94.37%
6135	61 Neutral	¥280.60B	8.88	7.67%	0.91%	9.03%	10.76%