Mars Group Holdings Corporation (6419) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥54.13B
• Dividend Yield: 4.7%
• Average Volume (3M): 51.56K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.56
• Revenue Growth: -25.28%
• EPS Growth: -24.84%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 640
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
• EPS (TTM): 102.94
• Shares Outstanding: 22,720,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 46,280
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 51,560
• PEG Ratio: -1.37
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.37
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.89
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 81 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥3,765.00 ▲(17.66% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (notably the very low-leverage balance sheet and solid profitability) and supportive valuation (low P/E and strong dividend yield). Technicals are positive but only moderate, with momentum indicators not signaling a strong acceleration.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet

Extremely low leverage and an expanding equity base materially reduce financial risk, improving resilience to property cycles. This conservative capital structure supports steady funding for new developments, strategic investments, and lowers refinancing pressure over the next several quarters.

Strong cash generation

Operating cash flow comfortably covering earnings and FCF tracking net income indicate durable cash conversion. This supports ongoing dividend capacity, reinvestment in projects, and working capital needs, enhancing financial flexibility across development cycles.

Diversified revenue streams & partnerships

A business mix of property sales, rental income, construction fees and government/private partnerships reduces single-source dependency. This diversification smooths cash flows across project timelines and strengthens long-term project pipeline and win-rate in infrastructure work.

Negative Factors

TTM revenue decline

A material trailing-twelve-month revenue drop signals cooling demand or project timing issues, which can compress fixed-cost absorption and margin sustainability. If sustained, reduced scale will limit reinvestment capacity and slow backlog monetization over the next several quarters.

Earnings deterioration

Significant EPS contraction reflects pressure on profitability from lower sales or timing mismatches in project recognition. Declining earnings reduce retained capital for development, may constrain dividends or capex, and weaken ability to pursue large strategic projects.

Historical cash-flow volatility

Intermittent negative free cash flow and variable cash quality increase funding unpredictability for construction and development cycles. This raises reliance on external financing at project peaks and heightens execution and liquidity risk across multi-quarter project timelines.

Mars Group Holdings Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mars Group Holdings Corporation engages in amusement, automatic recognition system, and hotel related businesses. It designs, manufactures, and sells automatic recognition systems, such as RFID, bar code, two-dimensional code, and X-ray inspection systems; electronic devices and information equipment; and mechatronics-related products, including banknote identification machines, card readers, vending machines, and card printers, as well as plans and sells information processing equipment, and provides information processing services. The company is also involved in the software development business; design, construction, and supervision of construction works; hotel operation and related business; real estate leasing and management; content distribution business; and production and sale of printed advertising. In addition, it designs, manufactures, sells, and imports and exports electrical machinery, telecommunications machinery, precision machinery, office machinery and equipment, medical machinery and equipment, and related parts, as well as manufactures and sells stampings, dies, and other machine products. The company was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Mars Group Holdings Corporation generates revenue primarily through its real estate development projects, where it earns income from the sale and leasing of properties. The company also benefits from construction contracts, providing project management services and construction solutions for various infrastructure initiatives. Key revenue streams include profits from property sales, rental income from its portfolio of managed properties, and fees from construction and consultancy services. Strategic partnerships with local governments and private sector entities bolster its capabilities and enhance its market reach, contributing significantly to its earnings.

Mars Group Holdings Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are strong overall: robust profitability, exceptionally low leverage, and solid cash conversion. Offsetting this are a slight TTM revenue decline and a modest TTM free-cash-flow dip versus the prior year, plus historical cash-flow variability.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with healthy gross and net margins and solid operating profitability. Over the last several years the company delivered a step-up in scale and earnings versus earlier periods, but the most recent TTM shows a slight revenue decline versus the prior year, suggesting growth momentum has cooled.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is very conservatively levered, with extremely low debt relative to equity across the time series, which materially lowers financial risk. Equity and assets have expanded over time, supporting a stronger capital base; return on equity is solid recently (though below the prior-year peak), indicating good but slightly moderating efficiency.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is generally strong, with free cash flow closely tracking net income in recent periods and operating cash flow comfortably covering earnings in both annual and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results. However, cash flow quality has shown volatility historically (including a year of negative free cash flow), and the latest TTM shows a modest decline in free cash flow versus the prior year.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	32.70B	42.25B	36.58B	20.35B	15.10B	14.76B
Gross Profit	17.45B	20.85B	19.83B	11.24B	8.46B	8.04B
EBITDA	10.82B	13.30B	12.31B	4.70B	2.12B	1.66B
Net Income	7.06B	8.72B	8.59B	3.14B	1.86B	807.02M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	91.85B	87.00B	83.96B	63.92B	60.14B	57.96B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	37.78B	36.72B	29.70B	23.05B	26.35B	23.58B
Total Debt	625.14M	544.58M	529.33M	563.27M	806.80M	1.10B
Total Liabilities	8.59B	8.77B	12.70B	7.62B	5.89B	5.66B
Stockholders Equity	83.26B	78.23B	71.25B	56.31B	54.24B	52.30B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	7.55B	9.81B	5.11B	-839.17M	1.59B	2.50B
Operating Cash Flow	8.37B	10.65B	6.45B	943.99M	3.57B	2.60B
Investing Cash Flow	-182.67M	-558.62M	-1.64B	-2.11B	423.98M	-590.49M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.79B	-3.07B	1.81B	-2.16B	-1.30B	-1.17B

Mars Group Holdings Corporation Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 3200.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6419, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3200 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3268.50, above the 50-day MA of 3188.40, and above the 200-day MA of 3009.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 18.43 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:6419.

Mars Group Holdings Corporation Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
6419	81 Outperform	¥54.13B	8.36	―	4.70%	-25.28%	-24.84%
6417	79 Outperform	¥528.45B	9.19	21.12%	4.08%	16.05%	27.25%
6257	76 Outperform	¥22.67B	-5.36	―	5.22%	-58.15%	-183.95%
7504	72 Outperform	¥58.18B	15.72	―	2.88%	12.39%	9.81%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
8200	59 Neutral	¥58.00B	54.22	―	0.56%	7.52%	3.37%
8163	55 Neutral	¥51.98B	61.71	―	0.62%	17.12%	-58.47%

Mars Group Holdings Corporation Corporate Events

Mars Group Holdings Posts Profit Decline but Maintains Strong Balance Sheet and Confirms Lower FY2026 Outlook

Mars Group Holdings Corporation reported consolidated results for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, showing a sharp year-on-year decline in performance, with net sales down 27.5% to ¥25.21 billion, operating profit down 31.5% to ¥7.26 billion, ordinary profit down 28.7% to ¥8.06 billion, and profit attributable to owners of the parent falling 23.0% to ¥5.54 billion. Despite weaker earnings and lower basic earnings per share, the company’s financial position remained solid, as total assets rose to ¥91.85 billion and net assets grew to ¥83.26 billion, lifting its equity-to-asset ratio to 90.6%, while the company also continued shareholder returns via dividends, albeit with a lower full-year forecast of ¥150 per share versus the prior year’s commemorative-inflated level. For the full fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, Mars Group is projecting further year-on-year contraction, with net sales expected to drop 11.2% and profit attributable to owners of the parent to decrease 10.5%, signaling a more challenging operating environment but also suggesting that profit margins and capital efficiency remain relatively resilient as no revisions to previously announced forecasts were deemed necessary.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6419) stock is a Buy with a Yen3888.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mars Group Holdings Corporation stock, see the JP:6419 Stock Forecast page.