Oriental Chain Mfg. Co., Ltd. (6380) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥5.26B
• Dividend Yield: 0.99%
• Average Volume (3M): 7.33K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 25.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.16
• Revenue Growth: 0.73%
• EPS Growth: 56.28%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 153
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories
• EPS (TTM): 46.05
• Shares Outstanding: 1,510,733
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 9,890
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,333
• PEG Ratio: -0.77
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.36
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.62
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.93
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥3,334.00 ▲(10.58% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 11/28/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 11/28/25

The stock's overall score is primarily driven by strong technical momentum, which is the most significant positive factor. However, financial performance concerns, including declining profitability and cash flow issues, weigh on the score. The high valuation further tempers the overall attractiveness of the stock.

Positive Factors

Revenue & Gross Margin Expansion

Sustained revenue growth with a materially higher gross margin implies improved pricing, product mix, or manufacturing efficiency in core chain products. That structural margin uplift supports long-term profitability potential and provides room to absorb operating or input-cost volatility if maintained.

Stable Operating Margins

Relatively stable EBIT/EBITDA margins indicate consistent cost control and manufacturing efficiency across cycles. This operational stability is a durable strength for a capital goods maker, enabling predictable cash generation and better planning for reinvestment or servicing capital structure over the medium term.

Niche Engineered Product Focus

Specialization in engineered chain and power-transmission solutions creates durable demand from industrial customers and technical barriers to entry. Deep product expertise supports long-term customer relationships, aftermarket sales, and differentiated offerings versus commodity suppliers, bolstering structural revenue resilience.

Negative Factors

Declining Net Profit Margin

A falling net margin over recent periods signals rising non-operating costs, higher finance charges, or inefficiencies draining bottom-line returns. Persistently compressed net profitability limits retained earnings and weakens the company's ability to self-fund growth, dividends, or deleveraging over the medium term.

Rising Leverage

Increasing leverage reduces financial flexibility and raises interest and refinancing risk. For a modestly profitable manufacturer, higher debt amplifies vulnerability to demand downturns or input-cost shocks and constrains capital allocation choices for capex, R&D, or shareholder returns over the next several quarters.

Persistent Negative Free Cash Flow

Multi-year negative free cash flow forces reliance on external financing or equity to fund operations and capex. Without a durable turnaround in operating cash conversion, negative FCF undermines balance-sheet repair, limits discretionary investment, and elevates execution risk in sustaining growth and margins.

Oriental Chain Mfg. Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Oriental Chain Mfg. Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells roller chains. It offers standard roller, self-lubricating, extra heavy duty, mini pitch, corrosion and heat resistance, plastic, leaf, hollow pin, double pitch, attachment, top roller, bai speed, conveyor, circular side bow, cable, and agricultural chains, as well as roller chain with outboards, chain coupling, and sprockets. The company was incorporated in 1947 and is headquartered in Hakusan, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Oriental Chain Mfg. Co., Ltd. generates revenue primarily through the sale of its chain products to a broad customer base across multiple industries. The company’s revenue model is centered around direct sales, where it sells its products to wholesalers, distributors, and end-users. Key revenue streams include standard chain products, custom chains tailored to specific applications, and ongoing contracts with industrial clients. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic partnerships with key players in various sectors, enhancing its distribution and market reach. Factors contributing to its earnings also include economies of scale from large production volumes and a strong brand reputation for quality and reliability, which foster customer loyalty and repeat business.

Oriental Chain Mfg. Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

The company exhibits solid revenue growth and stable operational margins. However, declining net profit margins, increased leverage, and negative free cash flow present significant financial risks. Addressing cash flow constraints and improving profitability is crucial for enhancing financial stability and shareholder value.

Income Statement

The company showed a consistent revenue growth trend over the years with a notable increase in gross profit margin, improving from 12.8% in 2020 to 19.3% in 2025. However, net profit margin declined from 3.7% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025, indicating increased costs or inefficiencies. EBIT and EBITDA margins have been relatively stable, suggesting operational control but limited expansion in profitability.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio increased from 0.82 in 2020 to 1.13 in 2025, reflecting rising leverage. The equity ratio decreased marginally from 37.2% in 2020 to 36.2% in 2025, indicating stable but slightly declining equity financing. Return on Equity has decreased from 8.6% in 2024 to 5.4% in 2025, pointing to reduced profitability for shareholders.

Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow has been negative since 2020, with a significant drop in 2025 due to higher capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio turned negative in 2025, indicating cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio also reflects inefficiency in converting profits into free cash.

Breakdown	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.06B	4.08B	3.90B	3.36B	2.93B
Gross Profit	784.60M	777.53M	636.36M	572.28M	425.53M
EBITDA	378.12M	420.16M	345.31M	244.40M	192.19M
Net Income	100.33M	149.23M	93.91M	28.27M	-8.55M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.13B	4.67B	4.23B	4.11B	3.66B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	358.34M	407.18M	300.26M	389.45M	394.68M
Total Debt	2.10B	1.55B	1.40B	1.37B	1.21B
Total Liabilities	3.27B	2.93B	2.68B	2.65B	2.26B
Stockholders Equity	1.86B	1.73B	1.55B	1.46B	1.40B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-513.13M	23.57M	-182.84M	-99.15M	89.50M
Operating Cash Flow	-7.35M	321.96M	80.55M	192.68M	254.16M
Investing Cash Flow	-582.55M	-297.49M	-236.96M	-296.24M	-155.06M
Financing Cash Flow	501.22M	82.59M	64.75M	96.52M	-13.21M

Oriental Chain Mfg. Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 3015.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6380, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3015 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3378.00, below the 50-day MA of 3363.60, and above the 200-day MA of 2496.56, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 68.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:6380.

Oriental Chain Mfg. Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
5962	76 Outperform	¥1.99B	9.50	―	2.78%	-6.93%	-63.68%
6380	69 Neutral	¥5.26B	25.01	―	0.99%	0.73%	56.28%
5952	66 Neutral	¥2.45B	17.21	―	2.75%	0.32%	19.67%
5969	65 Neutral	¥2.51B	-261.54	―	2.52%	-2.79%	-88.80%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
5990	54 Neutral	¥4.63B	23.31	―	3.60%	-4.75%	-178.90%
5950	45 Neutral	¥2.71B	-89.86	―	12.63%	3.39%	-101.03%