tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd (JP:6464)
:6464
Japanese Market

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd (6464) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
5 Followers

Top Page

JP:6464

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd

(6464)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Neutral 50 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
¥379.00
▲(7.37% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance, driven by a severe 2025 profitability breakdown and elevated leverage with shrinking equity. Technicals are mixed (price above key averages but negative MACD), while valuation is also mixed due to loss-making earnings offset partly by a ~3% dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Improved cash generation (OCF & FCF)
A meaningful rebound in operating cash flow and positive free cash flow in 2025 provides durable liquidity to fund operations, service debt, and invest in capacity or product improvements. Persistent cash generation would underpin recovery despite accounting losses, improving financial flexibility over months.
Supplier of critical precision components
Supplying essential precision balls to bearing makers and automotive systems creates structural demand and customer stickiness. These components are embedded in long-life industrial and vehicle platforms, which supports stable baseline volumes and pricing power versus noncritical commodity suppliers over the medium term.
Sizable asset base and manufacturing scale
A large asset base signals substantial production capacity and capital-intensity that can support scale advantages and meet large OEM contracts. If utilization and cost control improve, the existing footprint could drive better margins and returns without major near-term capex, aiding medium-term operational recovery.
Negative Factors
Severe 2025 profitability collapse
A large, persistent accounting loss in 2025 indicates structural margin pressure or one-off writedowns that materially weaken earnings power. Such a severe profitability breakdown erodes retained earnings, reduces capacity to self-fund investments, and may force cost cuts or restructurings that weigh on medium-term operational stability.
Elevated leverage and equity erosion
High absolute debt and a sharp drop in equity tighten financial flexibility and raise refinancing or covenant risk. Elevated leverage increases interest burden and reduces room for strategic investments, making the company more vulnerable to prolonged demand weakness and limiting ability to smooth cyclical swings over the coming months.
Revenue downtrend and earnings volatility
A multi-year revenue decline and volatile year-to-year earnings reduce predictability of margins and free cash flow. Weakening top-line suggests either softer end-market demand or competitive pressures; absent a clear structural recovery, revenue erosion limits leverage on fixed costs and constrains sustainable margin improvement.

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd (6464) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells industrial precision balls, rollers, cages, and sheet metal parts worldwide. The company operates through Precision Component Business, Linear Business, and Others Business segments. It offers precision steel balls, including bearing and stainless steel, ballpoint pen, and various metal balls for use in home electronics, such as air conditioners, refrigerators, and vacuum cleaners; and precision rollers and stampings comprising tapered, spherical, cylindrical, and needle rollers, as well as cages, sheet metal stampings, and welded products for transmission, engine, pump, wheel bearing, mining, heavy industry, and railway applications. The company also provides precision ceramic balls, including silicon nitride and alumina oxide balls for use in wind power generators, electric vehicles, and semiconductor manufacturing equipment applications. In addition, it offers ball screws for machine tools, electric injection molding machines, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, industrial robots, and advanced medical equipment applications. Further, the company provides iron and steel, electric power, wind tunnel, and other blowers for steel, thermal power, nuclear power, and other applications; and customized solutions comprising solid plastic balls, specially manufactured products, and glass balls for medical diagnostic tests and devices. Additionally, it is involved in the real estate leasing business. The company was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Katsuragi, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyTsubaki Nakashima generates revenue primarily through the sale of its precision bearings and components to a diverse clientele across multiple industries. The company’s revenue model is based on direct sales to manufacturers and distributors, as well as long-term contracts with key corporate clients in the automotive and industrial machinery sectors. Key revenue streams include standard bearing sales, customized bearing solutions, and aftermarket services. Significant partnerships with major automotive and aerospace companies further bolster its earnings, allowing Tsubaki Nakashima to secure consistent orders and maintain a competitive edge in the market.

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financials are pressured: profitability deteriorated sharply with a very large 2025 net loss and deeply negative EBIT, and revenue has been trending down. Balance-sheet risk is elevated due to high leverage and a meaningful drop in equity in 2025. Offsetting this, 2025 operating cash flow and free cash flow were positive, but cash-flow consistency and the gap versus reported losses remain concerns.
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Profitability has deteriorated materially. After modest profitability in 2024 (about 1.2% net margin) and a stronger 2021, the company swung to very large losses in 2025 (annual net loss of ~¥26.99B, with EBIT also deeply negative). Revenue has also been trending down, with 2024 down ~5.5% and 2025 showing a sharp contraction (as reported). Overall, earnings quality and margin stability look weak, with high volatility year to year.
Balance Sheet
35
Negative
Leverage is elevated for an industrial manufacturer, with debt running around ¥89–93B and debt-to-equity around ~1.5–1.8x (2020–2024). Equity fell meaningfully in 2025 (to ~¥37.3B from ~¥61.5B in 2024), consistent with the large loss, which increases balance-sheet risk. Total assets remain sizable (~¥152–175B historically), but the combination of high leverage and shrinking equity reduces financial flexibility.
Cash Flow
54
Neutral
Cash generation is a relative bright spot recently. Operating cash flow improved to ~¥10.5B in 2025 and free cash flow was positive (~¥8.6B), following weaker/negative free cash flow in 2022–2023 and only modest free cash flow in 2024 (~¥1.2B). The key risk is consistency: cash flow has been volatile across the cycle, and the strong 2025 cash performance contrasts with the very weak reported earnings.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue69.84B75.92B80.34B79.04B67.93B
Gross Profit3.25B10.52B13.16B7.76B13.61B
EBITDA-3.97B6.56B4.58B-4.81B9.38B
Net Income-26.99B912.00M-1.29B-9.09B3.55B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets151.70B174.72B166.08B159.89B157.17B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments34.63B23.06B23.00B24.12B32.52B
Total Debt92.84B92.65B91.32B89.14B84.99B
Total Liabilities114.42B113.21B111.94B109.76B103.81B
Stockholders Equity37.27B61.47B54.11B50.10B53.34B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow8.65B1.17B-3.37B-9.79B3.87B
Operating Cash Flow10.52B4.87B1.41B-4.14B6.26B
Investing Cash Flow1.12B-3.80B-4.89B-3.50B-2.28B
Financing Cash Flow-1.30B-1.91B1.39B-1.76B12.95B

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price353.00
Price Trends
50DMA
352.48
Negative
100DMA
365.32
Negative
200DMA
361.59
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
1.16
Negative
RSI
50.34
Neutral
STOCH
28.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6464, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 353 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 345.60, above the 50-day MA of 352.48, and below the 200-day MA of 361.59, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:6464.

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
¥29.95B13.672.76%7.69%-0.40%
77
Outperform
¥23.46B18.413.31%0.97%-10.47%
75
Outperform
¥42.34B18.003.70%-1.05%-14.70%
73
Outperform
¥15.12B17.313.84%5.57%89.21%
67
Neutral
¥76.21B18.922.82%8.75%177.16%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
50
Neutral
¥14.53B-0.516.98%-11.46%43.93%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:6464
Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd
358.00
-88.00
-19.73%
JP:5659
Nippon Seisen Co., Ltd.
1,370.00
110.61
8.78%
JP:5957
Nitto Seiko Co., Ltd.
811.00
249.95
44.55%
JP:6157
NS Tool Co., Ltd.
940.00
218.53
30.29%
JP:6165
Punch Industry Co., Ltd.
553.00
135.57
32.48%
JP:6480
Nippon Thompson Co., Ltd.
1,074.00
589.45
121.65%

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd Corporate Events

Tsubaki Nakashima to Book ¥900m Gain From U.S. Land Sale
Feb 18, 2026

Tsubaki Nakashima has decided to sell a portion of the non-current assets held by its U.S. subsidiary TN Georgia, Inc., specifically 19 acres of idle land in Cumming, Georgia, to real estate developer Euphoric Development LLC. The move is part of an ongoing review of assets under its mid-term business plan, aimed at better utilizing management resources and enhancing asset efficiency.

The land transfer, valued at about US$7 million, is expected to generate an estimated gain of roughly 900 million yen, which will be recorded as other income in the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026. This gain has already been reflected in the company’s consolidated earnings forecast, underscoring a disciplined approach to balance sheet management without altering previously announced performance guidance.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6464) stock is a Hold with a Yen315.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd stock, see the JP:6464 Stock Forecast page.

Tsubaki Nakashima Releases FY2025 Results and Mid-Term Plan Update with Extensive Disclaimers
Feb 13, 2026

Tsubaki Nakashima has released a FY2025 results presentation that also outlines progress on its Mid-Term Business Plan for 2025–2029. The materials emphasize that the information reflects conditions as of February 13, 2026, may change without notice, and is provided without guarantees of completeness or accuracy.

The company stresses extensive disclaimers around forward-looking statements, noting that projections, plans and targets are based on current assumptions and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. It also clarifies that third-party data cited in the presentation has not been independently verified and that the original Japanese version of the materials takes precedence over the English translation.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6464) stock is a Hold with a Yen315.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd stock, see the JP:6464 Stock Forecast page.

Tsubaki Nakashima Lowers Deferred Tax Asset Reversal at U.S. Unit
Feb 13, 2026

Tsubaki Nakashima has revised the previously estimated reversal of deferred tax assets at its U.S. subsidiary, following a reexamination of the unit’s business plan prompted by changes in the business environment. After discussions with its auditing firm during the FY2025 financial closing process, the reversal amount was finalized at ¥1.6 billion, down from the initially projected ¥2.9 billion.

The ¥1.3 billion reduction in the expected tax asset reversal eases part of the anticipated negative impact on the group’s earnings and balance sheet versus what had been signaled in January. The finalized figures have been reflected in the company’s FY2025 financial statements disclosed on the same day, providing greater clarity for investors and other stakeholders on the tax-related adjustments and the company’s current financial position.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6464) stock is a Hold with a Yen315.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd stock, see the JP:6464 Stock Forecast page.

Tsubaki Nakashima Swings to Deep Loss but Targets Profit Recovery in 2026
Feb 13, 2026

Tsubaki Nakashima reported a sharp downturn for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, with sales falling 8% to ¥69.8 billion and a swing to a hefty net loss of ¥27.0 billion, driven by a ¥22.3 billion operating loss and negative EBITDA, while equity and return on equity deteriorated significantly. The company suspended dividends for 2025 and forecasts no payouts for 2026, yet projects a modest recovery in the next fiscal year with flat sales of about ¥70.0 billion and a return to operating profit of ¥2.5 billion and net profit of ¥0.5 billion, signaling an attempt to stabilize performance after portfolio changes and weaker demand in its key end markets.

Cash flow from operating activities improved to ¥10.5 billion and year-end cash and equivalents rose to ¥34.6 billion, suggesting some financial flexibility despite the sharp earnings setback and reduced equity ratio. The removal of two subsidiaries from the consolidation scope, alongside discontinued operations in linear motion products, underlines an ongoing streamlining of the business as management seeks to restore profitability in cyclical automotive and machine tool–related markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6464) stock is a Hold with a Yen315.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd stock, see the JP:6464 Stock Forecast page.

Tsubaki Nakashima Warns of Heavy Impairment Charges and Deep FY2025 Loss
Jan 30, 2026

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd. has announced substantial impairment losses, inventory valuation losses, and tax-related charges for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, prompting a sharp downward revision to its full-year earnings forecast. The company expects to book around ¥16.7 billion in impairment losses on goodwill and fixed assets in its European and ceramics businesses amid a tougher competitive landscape and slower-than-expected growth in the EV-related ceramics market, though it continues to treat ceramics as a growth field and plans structural reforms and new product launches. In addition, it will record about ¥6.4 billion in inventory valuation losses, mainly tied to obsolete stock at two U.S. plants and in the ceramics unit, and will recognize approximately ¥2.9 billion in income tax expense from the reversal of deferred tax assets and ¥1.5 billion in deferred tax liabilities after revising its group business and dividend policies. As a result, the FY2025 forecast has been cut from a modest loss to a deep net loss of ¥28.4 billion, with basic earnings per share falling to a projected ¥-733.43, underscoring the financial hit from restructuring and market headwinds even as the company signals a strategic reset in its key regions and product lines.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6464) stock is a Hold with a Yen358.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd stock, see the JP:6464 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 18, 2026