Tsubakimoto Chain Co. (6371) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥253.56B
• Dividend Yield: 3.85%
• Average Volume (3M): 182.51K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.88
• Revenue Growth: 1.48%
• EPS Growth: 8.86%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 8,750
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Industrial - Machinery
• EPS (TTM): 59.82
• Shares Outstanding: 106,213,280
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 179,020
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 182,506
• PEG Ratio: 0.35
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.69
• P/FCF Ratio: 23.64
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 81 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥2,856.00 ▲(23.16% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/08/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/08/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (growth with improved profitability and a very conservative balance sheet), supported by attractive valuation (low P/E and solid dividend yield). Technicals also add strength due to a clear uptrend and positive momentum, with the main risk being uneven cash-flow conversion.

Positive Factors

Conservative Balance Sheet

Very low leverage and a growing equity base give Tsubaki durable financial flexibility: it can fund capex, absorb cyclicality, sustain dividends or buybacks, and pursue selective M&A without large refinancing risk, supporting long-term stability and strategic optionality.

Revenue & Margin Expansion

Multi-year revenue expansion with meaningful margin improvement indicates stronger pricing, scale, and operational leverage. Sustained top-line growth and improving margins support durable cash generation, reinvestment capacity, and competitiveness across industrial markets.

Positive Free Cash Flow

Positive and recently rebounding free cash flow underpins the company's ability to self-fund operations, maintenance capex, and shareholder distributions. Persistent FCF, even if variable, strengthens long-term solvency and capital allocation flexibility versus loss-making peers.

Negative Factors

Moderate Cash Conversion

Earnings do not consistently translate into cash at a high rate, leaving room for working-capital swings or capex to erode liquidity in downturns. This mid-tier cash conversion could constrain durable investment or dividend resiliency during weaker demand periods.

Volatile Revenue Growth

While multi-year expansion exists, uneven recent growth suggests sensitivity to cyclical industrial end-markets or project timing. This volatility complicates forecasting, capital allocation and may reduce predictability of long-term earnings and free cash flow generation.

Returns Are Solid but Not Best-in-Class

Improving but moderate returns indicate the business generates acceptable but not industry-leading ROIC. That may limit long-run shareholder upside versus higher-return peers and constrain the scale of reinvestment that yields strong incremental value over cycles.

Tsubakimoto Chain Co. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tsubakimoto Chain Co. manufactures and sells materials handling systems, automotive parts, chains, and power transmission units and components. The company operates through Chain Operations, Motion Control Operations, Mobility Operations, and Materials Handling Operations segments. Its power transmission products include drive, conveyor, and top chains; and hose and cable carrier systems, reducers, high speed lifters, linear actuators, sprockets/pin gear drives, timing belts and pulleys, locking devices, shaft couplings, clutches, electrical controllers, and mechanical protectors. The company's mobility products comprise timing chains, Enedrive chains, power drive chains, and cam clutches. Its materials handling systems include sorting and conveyance system for distribution industry, life science support equipment, newspaper handling systems, automatic material handling systems for car manufacturing factory, bulk handling systems, and metalworking chips handling and coolant processing systems, and other equipment and systems. The company also provides V2X bi-directional electric vehicle (EV) charging systems and monitoring systems. Its products are used in machine tool, automobile, LCD, semiconductor, steel, food, distribution, life sciences, medical equipment, and other industries. The company has operations in Japan, the Americas, Europe, China, South Korea, Asia and Oceania, and Taiwan. Tsubakimoto Chain Co. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Osaka, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Tsubakimoto Chain Co. generates revenue primarily through the sale of its various chain products and systems, which include power transmission chains, conveyor chains, and specialized components for different industries. Key revenue streams come from both domestic and international sales, with a significant portion derived from long-term contracts with major industrial clients in sectors such as automotive and manufacturing. Additionally, the company benefits from partnerships with equipment manufacturers, allowing it to integrate its products into larger systems, thereby increasing its market reach. Tsubakimoto also invests in research and development to innovate and improve existing products, which helps maintain its competitive edge and drive further sales growth.

Tsubakimoto Chain Co. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are strong overall: multi-year revenue expansion and meaningful margin improvement, supported by a conservative balance sheet (very low debt-to-equity and a growing equity base). The main constraint is cash-flow quality—free cash flow is positive but uneven, with only moderate conversion of earnings into cash.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is 281.98B, showing strong multi-year expansion from 193.40B (FY2021) and continued growth versus FY2025 (279.19B). Profitability has improved meaningfully over time: net margin has risen from 4.5% (FY2021) to 8.1% (TTM), with operating margin also stronger than prior years. Strengths are the sustained revenue scale-up and margin expansion; the key weakness is that the latest revenue growth rate (TTM) appears volatile versus recent annual growth, suggesting a potentially less stable near-term growth trajectory.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservative with low leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.10 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), improving from 0.23 in FY2021, while equity has grown steadily (263.80B TTM vs 185.79B FY2021). Returns on shareholders’ capital are solid and improving versus earlier years (8.6% TTM vs 4.7% FY2021). Strengths are deleveraging and a growing equity base; the main weakness is that returns are good but not exceptional, implying profitability is solid rather than best-in-class.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive but somewhat uneven. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is 29.02B and free cash flow is 15.57B, with a sharp rebound in free cash flow growth versus the prior annual period. However, cash conversion is only moderate: free cash flow is ~54% of net income in TTM, and operating cash flow relative to revenue is below 0.5 in recent periods, indicating earnings do not consistently translate into cash at a high rate. Strength is the improved recent free cash flow; weakness is variability and only middling cash conversion.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	281.98B	279.19B	266.81B	251.57B	215.88B	193.40B
Gross Profit	84.62B	82.18B	77.77B	71.25B	62.74B	47.63B
EBITDA	46.30B	44.89B	40.28B	32.33B	33.35B	21.86B
Net Income	22.94B	22.12B	18.55B	13.74B	14.54B	8.71B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	382.00B	371.51B	391.30B	345.88B	332.62B	307.33B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	67.10B	68.72B	77.92B	59.58B	55.44B	48.06B
Total Debt	25.15B	27.99B	30.86B	35.62B	39.23B	42.20B
Total Liabilities	115.93B	109.34B	130.74B	119.30B	122.86B	119.84B
Stockholders Equity	263.80B	259.81B	258.40B	224.40B	207.75B	185.79B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	15.57B	8.14B	27.74B	12.43B	13.00B	18.17B
Operating Cash Flow	29.02B	21.30B	38.58B	21.35B	21.00B	27.89B
Investing Cash Flow	-7.52B	-11.83B	-9.16B	-9.28B	-9.07B	-9.56B
Financing Cash Flow	-19.81B	-21.66B	-15.70B	-9.96B	-7.78B	-4.35B

Tsubakimoto Chain Co. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 2319.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6371, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2319 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2588.75, below the 50-day MA of 2453.18, and above the 200-day MA of 2137.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 52.98 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:6371.

Tsubakimoto Chain Co. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
6371	81 Outperform	¥253.56B	9.64	8.83%	3.85%	1.48%	8.86%
5192	78 Outperform	¥115.32B	15.71	―	4.64%	3.99%	-28.28%
6268	71 Outperform	¥581.48B	28.49	5.25%	2.13%	-2.23%	130.96%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
6408	61 Neutral	¥5.91B	3.03	―	1.37%	-3.05%	―
6324	58 Neutral	¥436.07B	197.68	5.62%	0.56%	6.22%	―
6481	55 Neutral	¥613.88B	-1.51	1.88%	6.16%	1.98%	-48.28%

Tsubakimoto Chain Co. Corporate Events

Tsubakimoto Chain Reports Strong Earnings at Newly Delisted Subsidiary Daido Kogyo

Tsubakimoto Chain Co. has disclosed the third-quarter financial results of its newly delisted and now wholly owned subsidiary Daido Kogyo Co., Ltd., which posted a 2.9% year-on-year increase in net sales to ¥44.27 billion and a sharp improvement in profitability, with operating profit up 28.9% and profit attributable to owners of the parent more than doubling to ¥1.71 billion for the nine months ended December 31, 2025. Daido Kogyo’s solid earnings and stronger balance sheet, with total assets rising to ¥80.95 billion and a higher capital adequacy ratio, come as its shares were delisted from the Tokyo Stock Exchange on December 29, 2025, following a share exchange with Tsubakimoto, after which the company halted dividend and earnings forecasts as it transitions fully into the Tsubakimoto group structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6371) stock is a Buy with a Yen2831.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tsubakimoto Chain Co. stock, see the JP:6371 Stock Forecast page.

Tsubakimoto Chain Posts Higher Nine-Month Profit on Modest Sales Growth, Keeps Forecasts as Daido Kogyo Deal Closes

For the nine months ended 31 December 2025, Tsubakimoto Chain reported a modest 1.4% year-on-year increase in net sales to ¥209.4 billion, while operating profit fell 7.1% and ordinary profit declined 3.3%. Despite the margin pressure, profit attributable to owners of the parent rose 5.5% to ¥15.8 billion, helped by factors that offset weaker operating performance, and basic earnings per share climbed to ¥158.94 following a prior stock split. The balance sheet remained solid, with total assets of ¥382.0 billion and an equity ratio of 69.1%, and the company maintained its full-year forecast calling for slight sales growth but double-digit declines in profit and earnings per share. The dividend outlook for the year ending March 2026 is unchanged at a total of ¥80 per share, signaling an intention to sustain shareholder returns even as profitability softens. Tsubakimoto also disclosed that Daido Kogyo Co., Ltd. became a fully consolidated subsidiary as of 1 January 2026, but said the impact of purchase price allocation has yet to be incorporated into its earnings forecast, leaving potential upside or adjustments to its guidance once the integration effects are quantified.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6371) stock is a Buy with a Yen2831.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tsubakimoto Chain Co. stock, see the JP:6371 Stock Forecast page.

Tsubakimoto Chain to Buy Fractional Shares Tied to Daido Kogyo Share Exchange

Tsubakimoto Chain Co. has resolved to purchase fractional shares arising from its share exchange reorganization that made Daido Kogyo Co., Ltd. a wholly owned subsidiary as of January 1, 2026. Under Japan’s Companies Act, the company will acquire 393 fractional shares of its own common stock allocated to former Daido Kogyo shareholders, paying cash based on the January 28, 2026 closing price on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, a procedural step that tidies up residual holdings from the transaction and helps complete the integration of Daido Kogyo into Tsubakimoto’s corporate structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6371) stock is a Buy with a Yen2670.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tsubakimoto Chain Co. stock, see the JP:6371 Stock Forecast page.

Tsubakimoto Chain Co. Completes Treasury Stock Acquisition

Tsubakimoto Chain Co. has completed the acquisition of 162,700 shares of its own treasury stock, with a total purchase cost of 343,042,600 yen. This acquisition is part of a larger plan approved by the Board of Directors to repurchase up to 6,500,000 shares, aiming to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6371) stock is a Buy with a Yen2340.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tsubakimoto Chain Co. stock, see the JP:6371 Stock Forecast page.