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Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. (JP:6324)
:6324

Harmonic Drive Systems (6324) AI Stock Analysis

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JP

Harmonic Drive Systems

(OTC:6324)

Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
¥2,625.00
▲(4.04%Upside)
Harmonic Drive Systems is currently facing challenges. The most significant factor is its mixed financial performance, characterized by volatile revenue and income, coupled with declining cash flows. In technical analysis, bearish trends and weak momentum indicators further weigh down the stock. Valuation concerns are evident with a high P/E ratio and low dividend yield, making the stock less attractive from an investment perspective.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
The company slightly raised its F3/25 sales guidance from ¥54bn to ¥55.5bn and its OP guidance from -¥0.4n to +¥0.4 as it expects sales in Japan and Europe to exceed its prior estimates.
Humanoid Robot Market
Harmonic Drive stands to benefit directly from the humanoid robot trend with a clear fundamental case.
Order Growth
Consolidated new orders increased by 15% YoY and 12% QoQ this quarter, showcasing a recovering trend.
Negative Factors
Competitive Pressure
Harmonic Drive faces competition from both alternative reducer types and new entrants in SW reducer, its overall share declining from 35+% today to 6% in the long term.
Impairment Loss
HDS will recognize impairment at subsidiary Harmonic Precision, which manufactures special bearings; the company expects to record an extraordinary loss.
Profitability Challenges
SW reducers for humanoids are less profitable than for industrial robots, with its long-term operating margin comparable to that of automotive components.

Harmonic Drive Systems (6324) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Harmonic Drive Systems Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHarmonic Drive Systems Inc. produces and sells precision control equipment and components worldwide. It offers speed reducers, rotary actuators, linear actuators, AC servo motors, and other mechatronics products, as well as HarmonicDrive, a speed reducer for space. The company also provides high-precision planetary-gear speed reducers under the AccuDrive and Harmonic Planetary brands; galvano mirror type optical scanners under the BEAM SERVO brand; and incremental encoders under the Harmonicsyn name. Its products are used in industrial robots, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and other systems. Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyHarmonic Drive Systems generates revenue primarily through the sale of its precision control equipment, specifically harmonic drive gears and actuators. These products are essential for applications requiring precise motion control, such as robotics, aerospace, and semiconductor manufacturing. The company benefits from long-term contracts and partnerships with key players in these industries, ensuring a steady demand for its products. Additionally, Harmonic Drive Systems invests in research and development to maintain its competitive edge and expand its product offerings, which contributes to its ability to capture new market opportunities and sustain revenue growth.

Harmonic Drive Systems Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Harmonic Drive Systems shows a mixed financial position. While the balance sheet is solid with a strong equity base, income statement volatility is concerning due to inconsistent revenue and net income. Cash flow issues, including declining free cash flow, also present risks.
Income Statement
65
Positive
The company shows a mixed income performance over recent years. Gross profit margins remain healthy, although there has been volatility in net income, particularly with a significant loss in 2024. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a notable decline in 2023. The EBIT margin indicates fluctuations in operational efficiency, with a sharp drop in 2024 but some recovery in 2025.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Harmonic Drive Systems has a solid equity base, contributing to a moderate debt-to-equity ratio. The equity ratio is strong, suggesting stability in asset financing. However, the company's financial leverage increased in 2024, which could pose risks if not managed carefully.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
The cash flow statement reveals some strengths and weaknesses. Operating cash flow has been positive but shows a declining trend. Free cash flow was negative in 2020 but turned positive in subsequent years, although it decreased significantly in 2025. The cash flow coverage of net income varies, reflecting volatility in earnings and investment activities.
BreakdownTTMMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue54.23B55.65B55.80B71.53B57.09B37.03B
Gross Profit13.93B14.85B15.61B25.79B22.43B12.58B
EBITDA-18.75B13.03B-17.07B19.94B17.40B8.52B
Net Income-24.76B3.47B-24.81B7.60B6.64B662.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets116.31B113.62B119.14B154.34B143.29B140.03B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments19.10B24.95B20.36B20.81B19.93B21.16B
Total Debt23.59B20.74B23.81B27.37B20.91B9.50B
Total Liabilities38.33B34.68B39.74B50.38B44.43B29.97B
Stockholders Equity77.99B78.94B79.40B103.96B98.86B102.89B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.002.63B7.42B1.78B5.07B8.17B
Operating Cash Flow0.007.52B12.73B10.85B9.88B9.56B
Investing Cash Flow0.001.48B-5.95B-8.66B-19.49B-4.18B
Financing Cash Flow0.00-5.87B-8.12B-1.60B8.12B-3.61B

Harmonic Drive Systems Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price2523.00
Price Trends
50DMA
3075.32
Negative
100DMA
3358.14
Negative
200DMA
3241.04
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-138.49
Positive
RSI
35.69
Neutral
STOCH
7.80
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6324, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2523 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2736.80, below the 50-day MA of 3075.32, and below the 200-day MA of 3241.04, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -138.49 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.80 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:6324.

Harmonic Drive Systems Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
65
Neutral
$10.82B15.595.20%1.89%3.09%-26.84%
51
Neutral
$245.18B69.644.32%0.76%-0.27%
$1.76B22.784.82%2.90%
DEJ9R
€3.51B30.729.67%0.93%
$1.90B14.956.35%1.74%
$2.16B26.894.03%3.28%
$2.56B1,020.490.06%0.03%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:6324
Harmonic Drive Systems
2,523.00
-1,961.16
-43.74%
FMMFF
Fuji
17.88
1.40
8.50%
DE:J9R
Japan Steel Works
45.80
20.41
80.39%
MKMLF
Makino Milling Machine Co
60.11
15.71
35.38%
NCTKF
Nabtesco
15.80
-1.50
-8.67%
SOHVF
Sumitomo Heavy Industries
20.92
-4.39
-17.34%

Harmonic Drive Systems Corporate Events

Harmonic Drive Systems Completes Treasury Share Repurchase
Jun 25, 2025

Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. has completed the repurchase of 77,400 treasury shares, amounting to 230,308,400 yen, as part of a broader initiative approved by the Board of Directors. This strategic move, executed through market purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, is part of the company’s efforts to optimize its capital structure and enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6324) stock is a Buy with a Yen5000.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harmonic Drive Systems stock, see the JP:6324 Stock Forecast page.

Harmonic Drive Systems Reports Parent Company Financials
Jun 19, 2025

Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. announced the finalized financial results for its unlisted parent company, KODEN Holdings Co., Ltd., for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025. The announcement highlights the shareholder composition and the status of major shareholders, providing insights into the ownership structure and governance of the parent company. This information may impact stakeholders’ understanding of the company’s strategic direction and control.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6324) stock is a Hold with a Yen4427.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harmonic Drive Systems stock, see the JP:6324 Stock Forecast page.

Harmonic Drive Systems Maintains Operational Autonomy Amidst Affiliate Relations
Jun 19, 2025

Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. announced that it maintains full autonomy in its operations despite KODEN Holdings Co., Ltd. holding a significant voting stake. The company ensures no operational constraints or inter-company personnel connections with KODEN Holdings, allowing it to independently manage its business and decision-making processes.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6324) stock is a Hold with a Yen4427.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harmonic Drive Systems stock, see the JP:6324 Stock Forecast page.

Harmonic Drive Systems Updates Financial Segment Information
Jun 17, 2025

Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. announced corrections to its previously released consolidated financial results for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025. The corrections pertain to segment information, specifically adjustments in segment assets, but do not affect the overall consolidated financial statements. These changes reflect a reallocation of segment assets and inter-segment eliminations, impacting the company’s reported financials for different geographic regions.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6324) stock is a Hold with a Yen4427.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harmonic Drive Systems stock, see the JP:6324 Stock Forecast page.

Harmonic Drive Systems Executes Treasury Share Repurchase
Jun 4, 2025

Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. announced the repurchase of 83,200 treasury shares for 283,556,500 yen as part of a broader plan approved in January 2025. This strategic move, executed through market purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, is part of a larger initiative to repurchase up to 400,000 shares, aiming to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6324) stock is a Hold with a Yen4427.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harmonic Drive Systems stock, see the JP:6324 Stock Forecast page.

Harmonic Drive Systems Reports Financial Recovery Amidst Sales Decline
May 22, 2025

Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. reported its consolidated financial results for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025, showing a slight decline in net sales by 0.3% compared to the previous year. Despite challenges in operating and ordinary profits, the company achieved a profit attributable to owners of the parent of ¥3,473 million, recovering from a significant loss the previous year. The company’s equity ratio improved to 69.5%, indicating a stronger financial position. Dividends remained consistent at ¥20.00 per share, with a payout ratio of 54.7%. The forecast for the first half of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, anticipates a modest increase in net sales by 1.7%.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6324) stock is a Hold with a Yen4427.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harmonic Drive Systems stock, see the JP:6324 Stock Forecast page.

Harmonic Drive Systems Announces New Business Execution Structure
May 14, 2025

Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. has announced a new business execution structure, which will take effect after the Ordinary General Meeting of Shareholders for fiscal 2024 on June 20, 2025. The structure involves the reelection of key executive officers, maintaining their current responsibilities, which indicates a strategic continuity in leadership. This decision is likely aimed at ensuring stability and sustained growth in the company’s operations and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6324) stock is a Hold with a Yen4427.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harmonic Drive Systems stock, see the JP:6324 Stock Forecast page.

Harmonic Drive Systems Revises Financial Forecast Amid Operational Challenges
May 14, 2025

Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. has revised its financial forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, with slight increases in net sales and profit attributable to owners, but a significant drop in operating profit due to inventory valuation adjustments at its U.S. subsidiary. This revision reflects the company’s ongoing challenges in maintaining operational efficiency, impacting its financial performance and potentially influencing stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6324) stock is a Hold with a Yen4427.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harmonic Drive Systems stock, see the JP:6324 Stock Forecast page.

Harmonic Drive Systems Reports Stable Financial Performance Amid Slight Sales Decline
May 14, 2025

Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. reported its consolidated financial results for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, showing a slight decline in net sales by 0.3% to 55,645 million yen. Despite the challenging financial year, the company managed to achieve a profit attributable to owners of the parent amounting to 3,473 million yen, a significant improvement from the previous year’s loss. The company also maintained its dividend payments and reported a stable financial position with a capital adequacy ratio of 69.5%. The forecast for the first half of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, indicates a modest growth in net sales by 1.7%.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6324) stock is a Hold with a Yen4427.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harmonic Drive Systems stock, see the JP:6324 Stock Forecast page.

Harmonic Drive Systems Reports Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Results
May 14, 2025

Harmonic Drive Systems reported its consolidated financial results for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, showing a slight decrease in net sales by 0.3% to ¥55,645 million. Despite a challenging year with significant drops in operating and ordinary profits, the company achieved a profit attributable to owners of the parent amounting to ¥3,473 million, a substantial recovery from the previous year’s loss. The financial position remains stable with a capital adequacy ratio of 69.5%, and cash flows from operating activities were positive at ¥7,516 million. The company announced a consistent annual dividend of ¥20.00 per share and provided a cautious forecast for the first half of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, due to uncertainties in estimating future financial results.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6324) stock is a Hold with a Yen4427.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harmonic Drive Systems stock, see the JP:6324 Stock Forecast page.

Harmonic Drive Systems Announces Treasury Share Repurchase
May 9, 2025

Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. announced the repurchase of 104,200 of its common shares, amounting to 295,664,800 yen, as part of a broader strategy to buy back up to 400,000 shares. This move, executed via market purchase on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

Harmonic Drive Systems Revises Financial Forecast Amid Impairment Loss
Apr 24, 2025

Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. announced an expected impairment loss of ¥1,189 million for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025, due to signs of impairment in non-current assets held by its subsidiary, Harmonic Precision Inc. Despite this, the company revised its financial forecast upwards, anticipating higher net sales in Japan and Europe, which are expected to result in increased operating and ordinary profits, although profit attributable to owners of the parent is slightly revised downward.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 24, 2025