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Nabtesco Corporation (JP:6268)
:6268

Nabtesco (6268) AI Stock Analysis

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JP

Nabtesco

(OTC:6268)

Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
¥2,750.00
▲(4.88%Upside)
Nabtesco's strong financial performance, highlighted by solid revenue growth and efficient cash flow, drives its overall score. The positive technical indicators support a bullish outlook, although valuation concerns due to a high P/E ratio temper enthusiasm. The high dividend yield adds an attractive element for investors seeking income.

Nabtesco (6268) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Nabtesco Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNabtesco Corporation manufactures and sells equipment in the industrial, daily life, and environmental fields in Japan and internationally. It operates through Component Solutions, Transport Solutions, and Accessibility Solutions segments. The company offers precision reduction gears for industrial robots' joints; hydraulic equipment, such as traveling unit for crawlers, control valve for mini excavators, and swing unit for hydraulic excavators; railroad vehicle equipment, such as railroad vehicle brake systems, door operating units, test equipment, brake shoes, seat turning equipment, and snow removal devices; and aircraft equipment comprising flight control actuation systems and high voltage electric power distribution units. It also provides air dryers and wedge brake chambers for commercial vehicles, and hydraulic clutch master cylinders for passenger vehicles; engine remote control systems for vessels; automatic doors and platform doors for buildings; automatic filters/sealers for retort pouch foods; and intelligent prosthetic knee joints, electric wheelchairs, stair lift with a wheelchair, and rollator with a speed control system. Nabtesco Corporation was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyNabtesco makes money primarily by designing, manufacturing, and selling a diverse range of precision equipment and system components. The company's revenue streams are largely derived from its motion control solutions, which are integral to various industrial applications. Key revenue segments include the production and sale of precision reduction gears for robotics and automation, hydraulic equipment for construction machinery, and automatic doors for the transportation industry. Nabtesco also generates income from its aerospace components, serving major aircraft manufacturers. Strategic partnerships and long-term contracts with industry leaders, along with continuous innovation and product development, significantly contribute to Nabtesco's earnings.

Nabtesco Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025
(Q2-2024)
|
% Change Since: 25.55%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mixed outlook. While there were strong performances in certain segments like Aircraft Equipment and steady forecasts for profit, challenges in Component Solutions and the Chinese market weighed heavily. The company's proactive cost-cutting measures and growth initiatives balance the negative impacts.
Q2-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Steady Performance in Transport and Accessibility Solutions
The Transport Solutions and Accessibility Solutions segments performed well, offsetting declines in other areas. Accessibility Solutions saw growth and is expected to exceed JPY 100 billion in full-year sales.
Aircraft Equipment Growth
The aircraft equipment segment is achieving its greatest-ever growth, benefiting from both commercial aircraft and Ministry of Defense business.
Full Year Profit Forecast Maintained
Despite challenges, the company maintains its full-year profit forecast of JPY 13.5 billion through cost-cutting measures and optimization efforts.
Positive Outlook for Boeing 737 MAX
Boeing's increased production volume for the 737 MAX is expected to positively impact the company in the current and next fiscal years.
Project 10 Initiative
The company is focused on improving profitability with the Project 10 initiative, aiming for a 10% OP margin by FY 2026 with specific actions leading to a 0.4-point improvement in FY 2024.
Negative Updates
Decline in Component Solutions Sales
Sales in the Component Solutions segment, particularly precision reduction gears, declined due to sluggish robotic demand, leading to an overall sales decrease of 6.4% from the previous year's first half.
Operating Profit Decline
The first half operating profit decreased by 26% year-on-year, impacted by sales declines in Component Solutions and impairment losses from a European subsidiary.
Challenges in China
Continued economic challenges in China affect recovery expectations for precision reduction gears and hydraulic equipment, pushing recovery forecasts to after 2025.
Impacted by Boeing 737 MAX Production Issues
The company experienced negative impacts from Boeing's production limitations on the 737 MAX, although future prospects are now improving.
Company Guidance
During the Q2 2024 earnings call for Nabtesco Corporation (6268.T), Atsushi Habe provided detailed guidance on the company's financial performance and future outlook. The company reported first-half sales of JPY 152.5 billion, a 6.4% decline year-on-year, although it exceeded the April forecast by JPY 1 billion. The operating profit for the period was JPY 6.4 billion, down 26% from the previous year but JPY 1.4 billion above projections. These declines were primarily attributed to the Component Solutions segment, which suffered due to weak robotic demand, while the Transport and Accessibility Solutions segments showed robust performance. The full-year sales forecast remains at JPY 323.7 billion, with operating profit expected to reach JPY 13.5 billion, supported by cost-cutting measures. The company anticipates a recovery in precision reduction gear demand by the first half of 2025 and foresees growth opportunities in aircraft and marine vessel equipment. The company also discussed its strategy for achieving an operating profit margin of 10% by FY 2026 through Project 10, targeting a 0.4-point improvement in profitability for FY 2024.

Nabtesco Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Nabtesco is financially sound with strong revenue growth and stable margins. The company maintains a robust balance sheet and manages its debt levels effectively. Cash flow management is healthy, though high capital expenditures impact net free cash flow.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Nabtesco demonstrates strong performance with steady revenue growth, notably a 2.94% increase from 2024 to 2025 TTM. Gross profit margin is healthy at 26.6% for TTM, while net profit margin is moderate at 3.23% due to increased operating expenses. EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, indicating efficient operations.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The company maintains a robust balance sheet with a strong equity base, as evidenced by a high equity ratio of 59.93%. The debt-to-equity ratio is moderate at 0.21, reflecting a well-managed leverage. Return on equity is reasonable at 4.06%, suggesting effective use of shareholder funds.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Nabtesco's cash flow statement shows a significant increase in free cash flow, growing by 462.97% from 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.61 suggests healthy cash generation from operations, although high capital expenditures impact net free cash flow.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue332.90B323.38B333.63B308.69B299.80B279.36B
Gross Profit88.57B87.13B82.66B76.68B82.04B73.19B
EBITDA32.15B31.26B36.16B32.29B112.16B46.59B
Net Income10.76B10.12B14.55B9.46B64.82B20.50B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets442.52B445.54B422.06B459.29B481.72B351.72B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments77.81B75.17B77.83B126.15B120.59B67.25B
Total Debt56.22B45.84B32.43B31.35B27.32B48.37B
Total Liabilities160.42B158.27B146.17B196.06B226.72B140.08B
Stockholders Equity265.26B270.09B260.47B248.70B239.91B198.03B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow9.85B1.75B-14.42B-3.65B27.04B15.51B
Operating Cash Flow28.13B26.65B11.18B7.72B36.34B34.20B
Investing Cash Flow-22.04B-28.73B-46.30B13.23B67.15B-10.71B
Financing Cash Flow-1.37B-4.14B-13.48B-13.46B-57.96B-17.50B

Nabtesco Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2622.00
Price Trends
50DMA
2348.28
Positive
100DMA
2333.32
Positive
200DMA
2402.46
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
76.90
Negative
RSI
77.87
Negative
STOCH
88.83
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6268, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2622 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2437.16, above the 50-day MA of 2348.28, and above the 200-day MA of 2402.46, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 76.90 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.87 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.83 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:6268.

Nabtesco Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
¥314.57B29.274.03%3.05%2.87%2.48%
65
Neutral
$10.69B15.755.51%1.90%2.72%-26.43%
$1.74B23.134.82%2.92%
$1.74B75.784.32%<0.01%
DEJ9R
€3.62B32.739.67%0.91%
$1.91B14.956.35%1.75%
$2.57B1,039.020.06%3.70%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:6268
Nabtesco
2,622.00
-36.62
-1.38%
FMMFF
Fuji
18.32
2.40
15.08%
HSYDF
Harmonic Drive Systems
18.18
-7.96
-30.45%
DE:J9R
Japan Steel Works
48.80
22.82
87.84%
MKMLF
Makino Milling Machine Co
60.11
18.89
45.83%
SOHVF
Sumitomo Heavy Industries
21.30
-4.46
-17.31%

Nabtesco Corporate Events

Nabtesco Reports Strong Q1 2025 Financial Results
Apr 30, 2025

Nabtesco Corporation reported a strong performance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, with net sales increasing by 13.2% year-on-year to 81,698 million yen and operating income rising by 36.7% to 5,454 million yen. The company maintained its dividend forecast for the year and noted no significant changes in subsidiaries or accounting policies, indicating stable operations and a positive outlook for stakeholders.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 18, 2025