Nabtesco (6268) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $442.34B
• Dividend Yield: 2.29%
• Average Volume (3M): 914.82K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.86
• Revenue Growth: -2.23%
• EPS Growth: 130.96%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 8,227
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Industrial - Machinery
• EPS (TTM): 41.77
• Shares Outstanding: 121,064,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,274,130
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 914,823
• PEG Ratio: -1.43
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.37
• P/FCF Ratio: 252.55
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.67
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.89
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.27
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.39
• 1Y Price Target: $3,500.47
• Price Target Upside: 0.13% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥3,438.00 ▼(-1.66% Downside)

The overall stock score is primarily influenced by stable financial performance and bearish technical indicators. While the company shows strong revenue growth and efficient cost management, technical analysis suggests a bearish trend, and the valuation indicates potential overvaluation. Improving profitability and cash flow conversion could enhance future prospects.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Nabtesco's consistent revenue growth highlights its ability to capture market opportunities and expand its market reach, supporting long-term business stability.

Cash Flow Improvement

Significant improvement in free cash flow indicates enhanced cash generation capabilities, providing financial flexibility for future investments and growth.

Strong Balance Sheet

A strong balance sheet with low leverage ensures financial stability and reduces risk, enabling Nabtesco to withstand economic fluctuations and invest in growth opportunities.

Negative Factors

Low Net Profit Margin

A low net profit margin suggests limited profitability, which could hinder Nabtesco's ability to reinvest in the business and improve shareholder returns over the long term.

Moderate Return on Equity

Moderate return on equity indicates that Nabtesco may not be utilizing its equity base effectively to generate high returns, potentially impacting investor confidence and future growth.

Free Cash Flow Conversion

The low conversion of net income to free cash flow suggests potential liquidity concerns, as a substantial portion of earnings is not translating into cash, limiting operational flexibility.

Nabtesco Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nabtesco Corporation (6268) is a Japanese company specializing in precision machinery and control systems, primarily serving sectors such as transportation, industrial machinery, and robotics. The company is known for its innovative products, including reduction gears for industrial robots, rail vehicle equipment, and automatic brakes for commercial vehicles. Nabtesco operates in multiple segments, including the Aerospace & Defense, Industrial, and Transportation sectors, offering a diverse range of solutions that enhance operational efficiency and safety.

How the Company Makes Money

Nabtesco generates revenue through the sale of its precision machinery and control systems across various industries. Key revenue streams include the manufacturing and sale of reduction gears and actuators for robotics and industrial applications, as well as equipment for rail and automotive sectors. The company also benefits from long-term service contracts and maintenance agreements, providing ongoing revenue beyond initial product sales. Strategic partnerships with major players in the aerospace and defense sectors further bolster its revenue, as these collaborations often involve large-scale projects and specialized solutions tailored to client needs. Additionally, the company’s focus on innovation and technology development positions it to capture emerging market opportunities, particularly in automation and advanced transportation systems.

Nabtesco Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Nabtesco shows stable financial performance with consistent revenue growth and efficient cost management. The balance sheet is robust with low leverage, but profitability metrics like net profit margin and return on equity indicate potential areas for improvement. Cash flow generation has improved significantly, although the conversion of net income to free cash flow could be enhanced.

Income Statement

Nabtesco's income statement shows a solid performance with a consistent increase in revenue, as evidenced by the TTM revenue growth rate of 8.4%. The gross profit margin remains stable around 26.6%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 3.2%, suggesting room for improvement in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are moderate, reflecting steady operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is strong with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21, indicating prudent financial leverage. The return on equity is modest at 4.1%, suggesting moderate profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio is healthy, reflecting a solid capital structure. However, the return on equity has decreased compared to previous years, indicating a potential area for improvement.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a significant improvement in free cash flow growth at 89.25%, indicating enhanced cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.24, showing a reasonable conversion of income to cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.35, suggesting that a substantial portion of net income is not translating into free cash flow, which could be a concern for liquidity.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	336.51B	323.38B	333.63B	308.69B	299.80B	279.36B
Gross Profit	91.04B	87.13B	82.66B	76.68B	82.04B	73.19B
EBITDA	35.51B	31.26B	37.53B	27.66B	112.16B	46.59B
Net Income	12.43B	10.12B	14.55B	9.46B	64.82B	20.50B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	448.27B	445.54B	422.06B	459.29B	481.72B	351.72B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	87.17B	75.17B	77.83B	124.41B	112.77B	64.67B
Total Debt	58.48B	45.84B	32.43B	31.35B	27.32B	48.37B
Total Liabilities	161.08B	158.27B	146.17B	196.06B	226.72B	140.08B
Stockholders Equity	270.93B	270.09B	260.47B	248.70B	239.91B	198.03B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	18.64B	1.75B	-14.42B	-3.65B	27.04B	15.51B
Operating Cash Flow	33.92B	26.65B	11.18B	7.72B	36.34B	34.20B
Investing Cash Flow	-19.69B	-28.73B	-46.30B	13.23B	67.15B	-10.71B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.62B	-4.14B	-13.48B	-13.46B	-57.96B	-17.50B

Nabtesco Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 3496.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6268, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3496 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3422.65, below the 50-day MA of 3533.96, and above the 200-day MA of 2794.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -53.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:6268.

Nabtesco Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
6134	77 Outperform	$282.39B	18.83	6.46%	2.76%	12.95%	46.98%
5631	66 Neutral	€724.49B	38.70	11.66%	0.93%	10.11%	41.98%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
6135	61 Neutral	¥266.09B	16.71	6.63%	0.90%	9.03%	10.76%
6324	59 Neutral	$267.61B	56.89	5.62%	0.73%	6.22%	―
6302	59 Neutral	¥513.17B	151.48	0.59%	2.94%	-2.67%	-85.21%
6268	57 Neutral	$442.34B	27.70	5.25%	2.29%	-2.23%	130.96%

Nabtesco Corporate Events

Nabtesco Completes Strategic Share Buyback

Nabtesco Corporation has completed the acquisition of its own shares, purchasing a total of 2,999,400 common shares at a cost of JPY 9,999,816,100. This move, executed through open market purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, was part of a strategic decision resolved by the Board of Directors to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6268) stock is a Buy with a Yen3452.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nabtesco stock, see the JP:6268 Stock Forecast page.

Nabtesco Advances Share Buyback Strategy

Nabtesco Corporation announced the acquisition of 790,500 of its own shares, costing approximately JPY 2.91 billion, as part of a buyback initiative. This move is part of a broader plan approved by the Board of Directors to acquire up to 4 million shares, reflecting a strategic effort to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6268) stock is a Buy with a Yen3452.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nabtesco stock, see the JP:6268 Stock Forecast page.

Nabtesco Revises FY2025 Financial Forecast Amid Business Reclassification

Nabtesco Corporation announced a revision to its FY2025 consolidated financial forecast, reflecting a decrease in net sales and operating income due to the reclassification of its hydraulic equipment business as a discontinued operation. Despite these changes, the company maintains its dividend forecast, indicating stability in its ongoing operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6268) stock is a Buy with a Yen3452.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nabtesco stock, see the JP:6268 Stock Forecast page.

Nabtesco Reports Strong Financial Growth Amid Strategic Reclassification

Nabtesco Corporation reported a significant increase in its financial performance for the first nine months of FY2025, with net sales rising by 10.5% and net income attributable to owners of the parent increasing by 103.3% compared to the previous year. The company has reclassified its hydraulic equipment business as a discontinued operation, impacting the presentation of its financial results. Despite this reclassification, Nabtesco has revised its full-year forecast, anticipating a 7.2% increase in net sales and a 60.7% rise in operating income, reflecting a strong operational performance and strategic adjustments.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6268) stock is a Buy with a Yen3452.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nabtesco stock, see the JP:6268 Stock Forecast page.

Nabtesco Adjusts Timeline for Hydraulic Equipment Business Split

Nabtesco Corporation has announced a change in the effective date for its absorption-type company split and share transfer agreement with Comer Industries S.p.A., now scheduled for December 2025. This adjustment is due to delays in obtaining necessary permits and approvals, but the company expects minimal impact on its current fiscal year’s operating results.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6268) stock is a Buy with a Yen3452.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nabtesco stock, see the JP:6268 Stock Forecast page.

Nabtesco Announces Share Buyback Progress

Nabtesco Corporation announced the acquisition of 1,138,600 of its own common shares at a cost of JPY 3,530,717,400. This move is part of a larger buyback program approved by the Board of Directors, allowing for the purchase of up to 4 million shares, with a total acquisition cost capped at JPY 10 billion, to be executed by December 30, 2025. This strategic initiative is aimed at enhancing shareholder value and optimizing the company’s capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6268) stock is a Buy with a Yen3452.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nabtesco stock, see the JP:6268 Stock Forecast page.