Nabtesco (6268) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥591.54B
• Dividend Yield: 2.13%
• Average Volume (3M): 914.82K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 38.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.05
• Revenue Growth: -2.23%
• EPS Growth: 130.96%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 8,227
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Industrial - Machinery
• EPS (TTM): 35.59
• Shares Outstanding: 118,064,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,274,130
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 914,823
• PEG Ratio: 0.51
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.45
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.79
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥4,995.32
• Price Target Upside: -1.22% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 177.35
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥331.60B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥5,588.00 ▲(10.50% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (better margins and profitability with manageable leverage) and strong technical trend support (price above major moving averages with healthy momentum). These positives are tempered by a relatively expensive valuation (high P/E) and a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Improving Profitability

In 2025 gross margin rose to ~30.5% and net margin to ~5.1%, reflecting better pricing mix and/or cost control. Sustained higher margins increase resilience to cyclical revenue swings, boost free cash flow potential, and improve the firm's ability to invest in product development and higher-value components over the medium term.

Manageable Leverage

A low debt-to-equity ratio (~0.26) and stable equity position provide financial flexibility. This balance-sheet strength supports capex, R&D or strategic investments without heavy refinancing risk, helping the company navigate industrial cyclicality and maintain supplier/customer commitments over the coming quarters.

Free Cash Flow Rebound

A ~19.6B FCF rebound and operating cash flow improvement (FCF covered ~60% of net income) enhance internal funding capacity. Stronger cash conversion increases optionality for reinvestment, dividend support or targeted paydown of debt, improving long-term capital allocation versus prior multi-year weakness.

Negative Factors

Inconsistent Revenue Growth

Revenue volatility and a recent decline weaken the durability of earnings gains: if sales soften, improved margins may not fully offset top-line weakness. Dependence on industrial automation and OEM cycles makes revenue stickiness uncertain, limiting predictability of medium-term profit and cash-flow trends.

Volatile Cash Generation

Despite the 2025 rebound, past multi-year negative FCF and operating cash variability reduce confidence in recurring cash generation. This volatility can constrain steady investments or shareholder returns and increases sensitivity to revenue or margin setbacks over the next few quarters.

Modest Return on Equity

ROE near ~5.8% remains modest, indicating limited capital productivity despite improvement. Low returns can impede the company's ability to compound shareholder value and may require sustained margin expansion or steadier top-line growth to materially lift long-term profitability metrics.

Nabtesco Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nabtesco Corporation manufactures and sells equipment in the industrial, daily life, and environmental fields in Japan and internationally. It operates through Component Solutions, Transport Solutions, and Accessibility Solutions segments. The company offers precision reduction gears for industrial robots' joints; hydraulic equipment, such as traveling unit for crawlers, control valve for mini excavators, and swing unit for hydraulic excavators; railroad vehicle equipment, such as railroad vehicle brake systems, door operating units, test equipment, brake shoes, seat turning equipment, and snow removal devices; and aircraft equipment comprising flight control actuation systems and high voltage electric power distribution units. It also provides air dryers and wedge brake chambers for commercial vehicles, and hydraulic clutch master cylinders for passenger vehicles; engine remote control systems for vessels; automatic doors and platform doors for buildings; automatic filters/sealers for retort pouch foods; and intelligent prosthetic knee joints, electric wheelchairs, stair lift with a wheelchair, and rollator with a speed control system. Nabtesco Corporation was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Nabtesco generates revenue through the sale of its precision machinery and control systems across various industries. Key revenue streams include the manufacturing and sale of reduction gears and actuators for robotics and industrial applications, as well as equipment for rail and automotive sectors. The company also benefits from long-term service contracts and maintenance agreements, providing ongoing revenue beyond initial product sales. Strategic partnerships with major players in the aerospace and defense sectors further bolster its revenue, as these collaborations often involve large-scale projects and specialized solutions tailored to client needs. Additionally, the company’s focus on innovation and technology development positions it to capture emerging market opportunities, particularly in automation and advanced transportation systems.

Nabtesco Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Margins and profitability improved meaningfully in 2025 (higher gross, EBIT, and net margins), and leverage remains moderate. Offsetting factors are inconsistent revenue growth (slight decline in 2025) and historically volatile cash generation despite a 2025 free-cash-flow rebound.

Income Statement

Profitability improved meaningfully in the latest annual period: gross margin rose to ~30.5% (from ~26.9% in 2024) and net margin increased to ~5.1% (from ~3.1%), with EBIT margin also higher (~7.1% vs ~4.6%). However, revenue has been choppy and recently negative (about -1.5% in 2025 after roughly flat-to-down in 2024), indicating growth is not yet consistent. The 2021 results appear unusually strong versus other years, suggesting earnings volatility across the cycle.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable with debt-to-equity at ~0.26 in 2025, still moderate for an industrial company, and equity has been relatively stable. Returns improved in 2025 (return on equity ~5.8% vs ~3.7% in 2024), but remain modest overall, implying the balance sheet is solid yet not highly productive. A key watch item is the upward move in total debt in 2025 versus prior years, which reduces flexibility if earnings soften.

Cash Flow

Cash generation strengthened in 2025: operating cash flow increased and free cash flow rebounded to ~19.6B (after a weak 2024 and negative free cash flow in 2022–2023). Free cash flow covered roughly ~60% of net income in 2025, a healthier conversion than 2024. Still, cash flow has been volatile across the period (including multi-year negative free cash flow), and operating cash flow remains relatively small versus the company’s revenue base, which keeps the cash-flow quality score below the balance sheet and income statement.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	307.91B	323.38B	333.63B	308.69B	299.80B
Gross Profit	93.78B	87.13B	82.66B	76.68B	82.04B
EBITDA	39.08B	31.26B	37.53B	27.66B	112.16B
Net Income	15.70B	10.12B	14.55B	9.46B	64.82B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	463.99B	445.54B	422.06B	459.29B	481.72B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	73.34B	75.17B	77.83B	124.41B	112.77B
Total Debt	71.00B	45.84B	32.43B	31.35B	27.32B
Total Liabilities	175.16B	158.27B	146.17B	196.06B	226.72B
Stockholders Equity	271.93B	270.09B	260.47B	248.70B	239.91B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	19.62B	1.75B	-14.42B	-3.65B	27.04B
Operating Cash Flow	32.82B	26.65B	11.18B	7.72B	36.34B
Investing Cash Flow	-15.72B	-28.73B	-46.30B	13.23B	67.15B
Financing Cash Flow	-13.56B	-4.14B	-13.48B	-13.46B	-57.96B

Nabtesco Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5057.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6268, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5057 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4663.60, above the 50-day MA of 4239.31, and above the 200-day MA of 3355.05, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 211.72 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.37 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.35 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:6268.

Nabtesco Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
6407	75 Outperform	¥375.21B	28.83	―	2.50%	6.16%	17.11%
6622	73 Outperform	¥331.00B	25.60	―	1.65%	14.49%	-21.17%
6268	71 Outperform	¥591.54B	38.64	5.25%	2.13%	-2.23%	130.96%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
6302	59 Neutral	¥769.44B	23.98	0.59%	2.95%	-2.67%	-85.21%
6324	58 Neutral	¥450.99B	94.05	5.62%	0.56%	6.22%	―
6481	55 Neutral	¥624.74B	97.83	1.88%	6.16%	1.98%	-48.28%

Nabtesco Corporate Events

Nabtesco Lifts Profit in FY 2025 and Targets Further Earnings Growth in 2026

Nabtesco reported strong FY 2025 results, with consolidated net sales rising 9.8% to ¥307.9 billion and operating income jumping 60.3%, as profitability improved despite reclassifying its hydraulic equipment business as a discontinued operation. Net income attributable to owners surged 55.1%, return on equity strengthened, and operating cash flow increased, supporting a stable annual dividend of ¥80 per share and a forecast modest increase to ¥82 in FY 2026.

For FY 2026, the company projects net sales growth of 6.2% to ¥327 billion and a 33.6% rise in operating income, signaling confidence in its core continuing businesses even as first-half profit is expected to dip. Non-consolidated forecasts point to softer sales but higher net income, suggesting ongoing portfolio reshaping and efficiency gains, with implications for improved earnings quality and sustained shareholder payouts.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6268) stock is a Hold with a Yen4756.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nabtesco stock, see the JP:6268 Stock Forecast page.

Nabtesco Profit Surges Above FY2025 Forecasts Despite Slight Sales Shortfall

Nabtesco reported its non-consolidated results for fiscal 2025, showing net sales of ¥177.1 billion, slightly below its earlier forecast, but ordinary income and net income significantly outperformed projections. The upside in profitability was driven mainly by stronger MRO sales in its Transport Equipment segment and higher dividend income from subsidiaries, indicating improved earnings quality despite modest revenue underperformance.

The better-than-expected profit figures suggest enhanced operational efficiency and stronger returns from group companies, which may bolster investor confidence in Nabtesco’s ability to generate income beyond top-line growth. This performance underscores the strategic importance of the transport equipment MRO business and internal capital flows in supporting the company’s financial resilience.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6268) stock is a Hold with a Yen4756.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nabtesco stock, see the JP:6268 Stock Forecast page.

Nabtesco Finalizes Split of Hydraulic Business and Sale of Majority Stake to Comer Industries

Nabtesco Corporation has completed the previously announced simplified absorption-type company split of its Hydraulic Equipment Business into a newly established wholly owned subsidiary, Comtesco Corporation, and has transferred 70% of Comtesco’s issued shares to Italian group Comer Industries S.p.A. The transaction, finalized with the business split on December 31, 2025 and the share transfer closing on January 1, 2026, marks a significant reorganization of Nabtesco’s hydraulic operations, though the company expects only a minor impact on its current fiscal year results and has pledged to disclose any further material developments.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6268) stock is a Hold with a Yen4104.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nabtesco stock, see the JP:6268 Stock Forecast page.

Nabtesco Adjusts Share Transfer Timeline Amid Strategic Restructuring

Nabtesco Corporation announced a change in the closing date for the share transfer of its Hydraulic Equipment Business to Comer Industries S.p.A., now scheduled for January 2026 due to delays in obtaining necessary permits. This adjustment is part of a broader strategic move involving a simplified absorption-type company split and the creation of a new entity, Comtesco Corporation, to streamline operations and enhance market competitiveness.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6268) stock is a Hold with a Yen4104.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nabtesco stock, see the JP:6268 Stock Forecast page.