Komatsu Ltd. (6301) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥5.73T
• Dividend Yield: 4.06%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.54M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.33
• Revenue Growth: 0.40%
• EPS Growth: 8.40%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 65,738
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Agricultural - Machinery
• EPS (TTM): 104.02
• Shares Outstanding: 930,340,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,633,020
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,544,656
• PEG Ratio: 0.66
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.26
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.97
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.83
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥7,168.57
• Price Target Upside: 43.37% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 400.75
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥4.02T

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥7,121.00 ▲(42.42% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/04/26

The score is driven primarily by strong underlying profitability and solid multi-year growth, supported by reasonable valuation and a ~3.25% dividend yield. Offsetting these positives are weaker cash conversion, somewhat higher leverage in the TTM view, and technical indicators that look overextended (high RSI/Stochastics), which raises near-term downside risk.

Positive Factors

Strong profitability and multi-year growth

Sustained margin levels and multi-year revenue/earnings expansion indicate durable operating leverage and efficient cost structure. This scale supports reinvestment in product development, aftermarket capabilities and helps maintain returns through industry cycles, strengthening long-term competitiveness.

Recurring aftermarket, services and digital offerings

A large, recurring aftermarket and digital-services revenue base smooths cyclicality from new-equipment sales, typically offers higher margins, and increases lifetime customer value. Over months to years this stabilizes cash flows and supports margin sustainability and pricing power.

Scale, global dealer network and solid ROE

Large installed base and an extensive distributor/service network create durable competitive advantages in parts/service capture and market reach. A ~13% ROE shows efficient capital deployment, enabling sustained investment in distribution, product support and global expansion.

Negative Factors

Weaker cash conversion versus earnings

Lower FCF conversion implies earnings don’t reliably become spendable cash, reducing ability to de-lever, fund capex or ramp dividends without issuing debt. Over 2–6 months this can constrain strategic flexibility and heighten exposure to working-capital volatility.

Rising leverage reduces financial flexibility

An increase in leverage narrows the buffer for cyclical downturns in construction and mining demand, raising interest and refinancing risk. Higher debt levels can limit optionality on capex, M&A or shareholder returns if industry conditions weaken over coming quarters.

Recent slowdown in top-line momentum

A deceleration in revenue growth undermines the operating-leverage story and may compress margins if fixed costs persist. For a capital-goods manufacturer, sustained slower demand can weaken aftermarket attachment rates and reduce capacity to invest in new products and digital offerings.

Komatsu Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Komatsu Ltd. manufactures and sells construction, mining, and utility equipment; and forest and industrial machinery worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Construction, Mining and Utility Equipment; Retail Finance; and Industrial Machinery and Others. It offers construction and mining equipment, including electric rope shovels, continuous miners, hydraulic excavators, wheel loaders, bulldozers, motor graders, dump trucks, mini excavators, utility equipment, and other mining equipment. The company also provides forklift trucks; forestry equipment, including harvesters, forwarders, and feller bunchers, as well as forestry-specific machines based on construction equipment; recycling equipment, such as mobile crushers, soil recyclers, and mobile tub grinders; tunneling machines, which comprise shield and tunnel-boring machines, as well as small diameter pipe jacking machines; and diesel engines, hydraulic equipment, and iron and steel castings products. In addition, it offers metal forging and stamping presses, including large presses, and small and medium-sized presses; sheet-metal machines, such as press brakes, shears, laser cutting machines, and fine plasma cutting machines; machine tools, which comprise crankshaft millers, transfer machines, machining centers, grinding machines, and wire saws; excimer lasers for semiconductor lithography tools; thermoelectric modules and temperature-control equipment for semiconductor manufacturing; and defense-related equipment, as well as provides warehousing and packing services. Further, the company provides other specific equipment for demolition, metal recycle, and slag handling; wear parts, periodic replacement parts, attachments, and remanufacturing parts; and retail financing for construction and mining equipment. Komatsu Ltd. was founded in 1884 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Komatsu primarily makes money by selling heavy equipment and related solutions to customers in construction, mining, and industrial/infrastructure end markets. A major revenue stream is the sale of new machinery (e.g., construction and mining equipment), typically through a global network of subsidiaries and distributors, where revenue is recognized upon delivery/transfer of control of equipment and associated solutions. A significant and often recurring source of earnings comes from aftermarket activities tied to its installed base: replacement parts, maintenance and repair services, and component rebuilds/overhauls, which can provide ongoing revenue over the life of each machine. Komatsu also generates revenue from value-added offerings that support equipment operation and uptime, including machine monitoring/telematics and other digital or site-optimization solutions when bundled with equipment sales or sold as services. In addition, Komatsu can earn income through equipment financing or leasing support offered to customers via financing arrangements (if applicable in a given region/transaction), which facilitates equipment purchases and can create interest/fee-based income alongside machinery sales. Overall profitability is influenced by equipment demand cycles (construction and commodity/mining cycles), mix between new equipment and aftermarket, pricing and input costs, foreign exchange movements given its global operations, and the effectiveness of its dealer/distributor channel and service network in capturing parts and service revenue.

Komatsu Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and multi-year expansion (TTM revenue ~¥4.06T; gross ~31.5%, EBIT ~15.3%, net ~9.8%), but tempered by slowing recent top-line momentum, rising leverage vs the latest annual period (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.47), and weaker cash conversion (TTM FCF ~55% of net income).

Income Statement

Komatsu shows strong profitability and scale: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is ~¥4.06T with solid margins (gross ~31.5%, EBIT ~15.3%, net ~9.8%). Over the last several years, revenue and earnings have expanded materially (from ~¥2.19T revenue and ~¥106B net income in FY2021 to ~¥4.10T and ~¥439B in FY2025), indicating good operating leverage. The key watch-out is the sharp slowdown in recent top-line momentum (TTM revenue growth is notably below the prior year’s level), while margins are slightly softer than the latest annual period.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks generally healthy with moderate leverage: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) debt-to-equity is ~0.47 (up from ~0.38 in FY2025), and equity has grown to ~¥3.36T alongside a larger asset base (~¥6.31T). Returns remain solid (TTM return on equity ~13%), consistent with a well-run industrial manufacturer. The main weakness is rising debt versus the most recent annual report, which reduces flexibility if the cycle turns or demand weakens.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive but less robust than earnings: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is ~¥461B and free cash flow is ~¥252B, implying healthy absolute cash production. However, free cash flow is only ~55% of net income in TTM (and ~60% in FY2025), suggesting working-capital swings and/or elevated investment needs are absorbing cash. Free cash flow has improved versus prior years, but the consistency of converting profits into cash remains the key area to monitor.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.06T	4.10T	3.87T	3.54T	2.80T	2.19T
Gross Profit	1.28T	1.32T	1.21T	1.04T	779.58B	581.05B
EBITDA	783.49B	820.13B	767.53B	646.39B	457.42B	304.19B
Net Income	399.24B	439.61B	393.43B	326.40B	224.93B	106.24B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.31T	5.77T	5.64T	4.88T	4.35T	3.78T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	428.74B	385.57B	403.18B	289.98B	316.67B	243.13B
Total Debt	1.53T	1.22T	1.27T	1.12T	1.01T	965.85B
Total Liabilities	2.76T	2.43T	2.44T	2.20T	1.99T	1.77T
Stockholders Equity	3.36T	3.17T	3.03T	2.54T	2.23T	1.91T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	252.31B	311.31B	231.83B	22.94B	138.01B	172.58B
Operating Cash Flow	460.73B	517.17B	434.78B	206.47B	300.97B	354.13B
Investing Cash Flow	-194.88B	-210.67B	-204.43B	-174.25B	-163.64B	-163.06B
Financing Cash Flow	-250.59B	-321.42B	-122.03B	-61.88B	-73.80B	-199.67B

Komatsu Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 5000.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6301, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 5000 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7164.50, below the 50-day MA of 6708.14, and below the 200-day MA of 5404.33, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -74.78 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.88 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:6301.

Komatsu Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
6301	75 Outperform	¥5.73T	12.01	―	4.06%	0.40%	8.40%
6432	73 Outperform	¥297.56B	12.67	―	2.99%	0.31%	-11.04%
6395	70 Outperform	¥158.34B	7.33	9.45%	2.86%	10.49%	-5.19%
6345	70 Outperform	¥86.64B	15.03	―	4.79%	1.68%	18.85%
6305	67 Neutral	¥1.16T	13.34	9.16%	3.98%	-2.72%	29.43%
6326	65 Neutral	¥2.94T	13.56	7.55%	2.22%	-3.22%	-29.63%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

Komatsu Ltd. Corporate Events

Komatsu Reshapes Top Leadership, Elevates Kusaba as New Representative Director

Komatsu announced a reshuffle of its top management, appointing Taisuke Kusaba as Representative Director and Senior Executive Officer, effective April 1, 2026, as part of a broader change in its management structure. President and CEO Takuya Imayoshi will remain in his role, while current Representative Director and Senior Executive Officer Takeshi Horikoshi will step down from the board and become an adviser after the June 2026 shareholders’ meeting.

Kusaba, a long-time Komatsu executive with extensive experience in development, overseas operations, and technology leadership, including roles at Komatsu America and as CTO, will join Imayoshi as one of the company’s two Representative Directors. The move underscores Komatsu’s emphasis on strengthening its leadership bench and technology-driven development capabilities as it navigates its next phase of corporate strategy and global growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6301) stock is a Buy with a Yen7991.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Komatsu Ltd. stock, see the JP:6301 Stock Forecast page.

Komatsu Posts Lower Nine-Month Profits but Maintains Full-Year Outlook and Dividend Plan

Komatsu reported a modest 1.4% decline in net sales to ¥2.92 trillion for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, with operating income down 10.1% and net income attributable to the parent falling 13.0% year on year, reflecting weaker profitability despite an increase in total assets and shareholder equity. While comprehensive income rose sharply by 33.1%, the company maintained its full-year projections, which still point to mid‑to‑high‑20% declines in profit metrics versus the prior year, and kept its annual dividend forecast unchanged at ¥190 per share, signaling a commitment to shareholder returns amid a softening earnings environment and stable financial position.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6301) stock is a Hold with a Yen6127.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Komatsu Ltd. stock, see the JP:6301 Stock Forecast page.

Komatsu Cancels ¥100 Billion Treasury Shares After Buyback Program

Komatsu Ltd. has completed the cancellation of 20,612,500 shares of its common stock, representing 2.2% of its outstanding shares prior to cancellation, effective December 29, 2025, reducing the total number of shares outstanding to 930,340,620. The canceled shares were acquired through a previously authorized share buyback program of up to 40 million shares or ¥100 billion conducted on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between April 30 and November 28, 2025, under which Komatsu repurchased 20,612,500 shares for approximately ¥100 billion, signaling continued capital management efforts that may support shareholder value and share price metrics through a smaller share base.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6301) stock is a Hold with a Yen5631.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Komatsu Ltd. stock, see the JP:6301 Stock Forecast page.