Komatsu Ltd. (JP:6301)
:6301
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Komatsu Ltd.
(6301)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
¥7,133.00
▲(6.46% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/05/26
The score is supported primarily by solid underlying financial quality and reasonable valuation with a meaningful dividend, but is held back by weakening near-term profitability/cash flow signals and cautious FY26 guidance amid tariffs, cost inflation, and softer mining demand; technicals also reflect weak near-term momentum.
Positive Factors
Multi-year revenue and margin expansion
Komatsu's stretch of record annual sales and prior multi-year margin expansion demonstrate durable market positioning and execution. Consistent top-line growth supports scale benefits, aftermarket attachment demand and investment in tech/automation, helping sustain earnings power over coming months.
Negative Factors
Guidance showing profit compression
Management's guidance signals meaningful near-term margin and earnings deterioration driven by mix, tariffs and cost inflation. Lower operating profitability and ROE reduce internal funding capacity and increase reliance on cash generation to meet capex, R&D and payout targets over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Multi-year revenue and margin expansion
Komatsu's stretch of record annual sales and prior multi-year margin expansion demonstrate durable market positioning and execution. Consistent top-line growth supports scale benefits, aftermarket attachment demand and investment in tech/automation, helping sustain earnings power over coming months.
Read all positive factors
Komatsu Ltd. (6301) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥5.63T
Dividend Yield4.06%
Average Volume (3M)2.54M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.5
Beta (1Y)1.36
Revenue Growth0.69%
EPS Growth-12.55%
CountryJP
Employees65,738
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAgricultural - Machinery
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)413.85
Shares Outstanding930,340,640
10 Day Avg. Volume2,633,020
30 Day Avg. Volume2,544,656
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.15
Price to Book (P/B)1.56
Price to Sales (P/S)1.32
P/FCF Ratio23.09
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥7,074.29Price Target Upside5.59% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)416.54
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥4.22T
Komatsu Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Komatsu Ltd. manufactures and sells construction, mining, and utility equipment; and forest and industrial machinery worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Construction, Mining and Utility Equipment; Retail Finance; and Industrial...
How the Company Makes Money
Komatsu makes money primarily by selling heavy equipment and by earning recurring revenue from the installed base of machines in the field. The largest revenue stream is typically the sale of new equipment (e.g., construction and mining machinery ...
Komatsu Ltd. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed picture: strong top-line resilience (record sales), solid aftermarket, retail finance and industrial machinery performances, strategic M&A and technology milestones (AHS, hydrogen POC, reman expansion) and positive cash generation/return actions. However, profitability was materially pressured by volume declines, unfavorable product and regional mix (notably Indonesia and mining), tariff impacts (U.S. tariffs expected to increase materially in FY26) and cost inflation tied to the Middle East situation. Given meaningful operational and macro headwinds offsetting several operational achievements, the balance of positives and negatives is roughly even.Positive Updates
Record Fifth Consecutive Year of Net Sales
Net sales reached a record high for the fifth consecutive year, increasing 0.7% year-on-year to JPY 4,132.8 billion.
Negative Updates
Operating and Net Income Declines
Operating income declined 13.7% year-on-year to JPY 567.3 billion and operating income ratio fell to 13.7% (down 2.3 percentage points). Net income attributable to Komatsu decreased 14.4% to JPY 376.4 billion.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Fifth Consecutive Year of Net Sales
Net sales reached a record high for the fifth consecutive year, increasing 0.7% year-on-year to JPY 4,132.8 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company’s fiscal 2026 guidance assumes FX of JPY150/USD, JPY170/EUR and JPY106/AUD and calls for net sales of JPY 4,118.0 billion (‑0.4% YoY), operating income of JPY 508.0 billion (‑10.5%), and net income of JPY 318.0 billion (‑15.5%), with ROE projected at 9.1%; dividends are JPY 190/share (unchanged) with a consolidated payout ratio of 53.8% and a board‑approved buyback up to JPY 100.0 billion (25 million shares) to be cancelled (total payout including buyback 85.4%). By segment, Construction, Mining & Utility revenue is guided to JPY 3.79 trillion (‑0.4%) with segment profit JPY 440.0 billion (‑10.4%) and a margin of 11.6% (‑1.3 ppt), mining equipment sales JPY 1,858.5 billion (‑2.4%) and construction equipment JPY 1,919.7 billion (+1.5%); Retail Finance revenue JPY 127.5 billion (+1.1%) and profit JPY 36.0 billion (‑1.6%; ROA 2.3%), and Industrial Machinery revenue JPY 239.0 billion (+0.1%) and profit JPY 37.0 billion (‑2.5%; margin 15.5%, ‑0.4 ppt). The outlook factors in JPY 67.8 billion of additional U.S. tariff costs partially offset by JPY 30.0 billion of refunds (net JPY 37.8 billion), a JPY 90.1 billion sales headwind and JPY 18.8 billion cost rise from Middle East turmoil, parts/aftermarket growth (parts sales JPY 1,078.5 billion, +2.2%; aftermarket ratio 53%; aftermarket ex‑FX +3.1%), higher capex/R&D and wage‑related fixed costs, and a commitment to generate JPY 300 billion+ free cash flow annually (≈JPY 1 trillion over 3 years, ex‑M&A).Komatsu Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
83
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Cash Flow
69
Positive
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.13T | 4.10T | 3.87T | 3.54T | 2.80T |
| Gross Profit | 1.26T | 1.32T | 1.21T | 1.04T | 779.58B |
| EBITDA | 733.00B | 820.13B | 767.53B | 646.39B | 457.42B |
| Net Income | 376.39B | 439.61B | 393.43B | 326.40B | 224.93B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 6.42T | 5.77T | 5.64T | 4.88T | 4.35T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 439.70B | 385.57B | 403.18B | 289.98B | 316.67B |
| Total Debt | 1.42T | 1.22T | 1.27T | 1.12T | 1.01T |
| Total Liabilities | 2.72T | 2.43T | 2.44T | 2.20T | 1.99T |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.51T | 3.17T | 3.03T | 2.54T | 2.23T |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 236.70B | 311.31B | 231.83B | 22.94B | 138.01B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 448.96B | 517.17B | 434.78B | 206.47B | 300.97B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -199.23B | -210.67B | -204.43B | -174.25B | -163.64B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -208.54B | -321.42B | -122.03B | -61.88B | -73.80B |
Komatsu Ltd. Technical Analysis
Negative
6700.00
Price Trends
6605.56
Negative
6394.61
Negative
5716.15
Positive
Market Momentum
-129.77
Positive
38.42
Neutral
10.21
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6301, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6700 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6602.55, above the 50-day MA of 6605.56, and above the 200-day MA of 5716.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -129.77 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.21 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:6301.
Komatsu Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | ¥322.36B | 18.05 | ― | 2.99% | 5.65% | 11.14% | |
74 Outperform | ¥85.86B | 6.79 | ― | 4.79% | 0.52% | 20.09% | |
70 Outperform | ¥3.07T | 9.53 | 7.55% | 2.22% | 5.51% | 12.24% | |
69 Neutral | ¥5.63T | 14.52 | ― | 4.06% | 0.69% | -12.55% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | ¥1.06T | 15.32 | 9.16% | 3.98% | 2.49% | -10.13% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Komatsu Ltd. Corporate Events
Komatsu Begins ¥100 Billion Share Buyback With Initial ¥7 Billion Repurchase
May 1, 2026
Komatsu has disclosed the first results of its latest share buyback program, repurchasing 1,070,000 shares of common stock for approximately 7.05 billion yen on April 30, 2026, through market purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. This transaction...
Komatsu Weighs Cutting Minimum Investment Unit to Broaden Investor Base
Apr 28, 2026
Komatsu has outlined its stance on potentially lowering the minimum investment unit of its shares below ¥500,000, acknowledging that a reduced threshold could help attract a wider base of investors and improve liquidity in its stock. The comp...
Komatsu to Maintain ¥190 Dividend, Unlocks Reserves for Capital Flexibility
Apr 28, 2026
Komatsu plans a year-end dividend of ¥95 per share for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, bringing total annual dividends to ¥190 per share, unchanged from the prior year and implying a consolidated payout ratio of 45.9%. Despite proj...
Komatsu Launches ¥100 Billion Share Buyback and Treasury Stock Cancellation
Apr 28, 2026
Komatsu’s board has approved a share buyback of up to 25 million common shares, representing about 2.8% of outstanding stock, for a total consideration of as much as 100 billion yen. The repurchase, to be conducted on the Tokyo Stock Exchang...
Komatsu Profit Slides Despite Higher Sales as Firm Holds Dividend Steady
Apr 28, 2026
Komatsu reported fiscal year 2026 net sales of ¥4.13 trillion, up 0.7% year-on-year, but operating income fell 13.7% and net income attributable to the parent declined 14.4%, reflecting margin pressure despite stable top-line growth. Returns ...
Komatsu Reshapes Top Leadership, Elevates Kusaba as New Representative Director
Feb 16, 2026
Komatsu announced a reshuffle of its top management, appointing Taisuke Kusaba as Representative Director and Senior Executive Officer, effective April 1, 2026, as part of a broader change in its management structure. President and CEO Takuya Imay...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.