Komatsu Ltd. (6301) AI Stock Analysis

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Komatsu Ltd.

(6301)

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Neutral 68 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:68Neutral

Price Target:

¥5,631.00

▲(9.00% Upside)

Komatsu Ltd.'s overall score reflects strong financial performance and reasonable valuation, tempered by technical indicators suggesting short-term challenges. The earnings call revealed both significant market challenges and strategic opportunities, balancing the outlook.

Komatsu Ltd. (6301) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Market Cap

¥4.76T

Dividend Yield3.28%

Average Volume (3M)2.54M

Price to Earnings (P/E)11.5

Beta (1Y)1.28

Revenue Growth0.40%

EPS Growth8.41%

CountryJP

Employees65,738

SectorIndustrials

Sector Strength72

IndustryAgricultural - Machinery

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)92.69

Shares Outstanding950,953,100

10 Day Avg. Volume2,633,020

30 Day Avg. Volume2,544,656

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.66

Price to Book (P/B)1.26

Price to Sales (P/S)0.97

P/FCF Ratio12.83

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

¥5,100.00

Price Target Upside-1.28% Downside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering1

EPS Forecast (FY)N/A

Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A

Komatsu Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKomatsu Ltd. (6301) is a leading global manufacturer of construction, mining, and utility equipment, as well as industrial machinery. Founded in 1921 and headquartered in Tokyo, Japan, the company operates in multiple sectors including construction and mining, forestry, and industrial machinery. Its core products include hydraulic excavators, bulldozers, wheel loaders, dump trucks, and various attachments and components, which are designed to enhance productivity and efficiency in various industrial applications.

How the Company Makes MoneyKomatsu generates revenue primarily through the sale of heavy equipment and machinery used in construction, mining, and other industrial sectors. The company's revenue model is driven by several key streams: first, the direct sale of new machinery, which constitutes a significant portion of its earnings; second, the sale of used equipment and parts; and third, after-sales services including maintenance and repair, which provide ongoing revenue. Additionally, Komatsu benefits from strategic partnerships with other companies in the construction and mining sectors, enhancing its market reach and product offerings. The company also invests in technology and innovation, such as automation and smart construction solutions, which are increasingly popular in the industry and contribute to its revenue growth.

Komatsu Ltd. Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2025

(Q3-2025)

Next Earnings Date:Jan 30, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflected a mix of positive achievements, such as record highs in net sales and income, and challenges, particularly in specific regional markets and segments. While the company reported strong performance in retail finance and launched new products, it also faced decreased demand in key regions and rising production costs.

Q3-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Highs in Net Sales and Income

Net sales increased by 1.8% year-on-year to ¥989.2 billion and operating income by 4% to ¥162.6 billion in Q3. Net income rose by 9.7% to ¥108.3 billion, marking third quarter record highs for net sales and income.

Strong Performance in Retail Finance and Industrial Machinery

Retail Finance sales increased by 11.1% year-on-year to ¥30.2 billion, with segment profits up by 22.3%. Industrial Machinery & Others sales increased by 7.5% year-on-year to ¥49.9 billion, with segment profit increasing by approximately 5.7 times.

Improved Market Conditions in Asia

In Q3, net sales in the Construction, Mining & Utility Equipment segment increased in Oceania and Asia, with a notable recovery in demand in Indonesia.

Successful Launch of New Excavator Model

Komatsu launched the PC200i-12 excavator with 3D machine guidance as standard in Japan on December 1, 2024, expected to be available in other markets in FY 2025.

Negative Updates

Decline in Construction and Mining Equipment Segment Profits

Segment profits for Construction, Mining & Utility Equipment decreased by 1.4% to ¥147 billion, with the profit ratio declining by 0.2 points to 16%.

Decreased Demand in Key Markets

Q3 saw a 12% year-on-year decrease in demand in Japan and a 20% decrease in Europe. The full-year demand forecasts for these regions were revised downwards.

Challenges with Foreign Competition in Asia

Concerns about the threat from Chinese manufacturers in Asia persist, affecting strategic decisions and market share considerations.

Increased Production Costs

Higher production costs were driven by increased steel prices, rubber costs, and partner company labor costs.

Company Guidance

In the call, Komatsu provided detailed financial guidance for fiscal 2024 Q3. Key metrics highlighted include a 1.8% year-on-year increase in net sales to ¥989.2 billion, with operating income rising by 4% to ¥162.6 billion, resulting in an operating income ratio of 16.4%. Net income saw a significant increase of 9.7% to ¥108.3 billion, marking a record high for the third quarter. Segment performance varied, with Construction, Mining & Utility Equipment's sales remaining flat at ¥918.2 billion, while Retail Finance and Industrial Machinery & Others segments saw sales increases of 11.1% and 7.5%, respectively. Exchange rates played a crucial role, with the yen at ¥148.8 to the dollar and ¥161.4 to the euro, impacting sales and profitability. Looking ahead, the company projects a decline in demand for fiscal 2024, with specific regional insights provided, such as a 12% decrease in Japanese market demand and a 3% increase in North America. Despite challenges, Komatsu remains optimistic about future growth, particularly in the construction and mining equipment sectors, with ongoing investments in technology and market expansion.

Komatsu Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Komatsu Ltd. shows strong profitability and a stable balance sheet, with a solid gross profit margin and healthy ROE. However, challenges in revenue growth and free cash flow generation are notable, requiring attention to leverage management and cash flow enhancement.

Income Statement

Positive

Komatsu Ltd. demonstrates solid profitability with a consistent gross profit margin around 32% and a net profit margin over 10% in recent periods. However, the company experienced a slight revenue decline in the TTM period, indicating potential challenges in maintaining growth momentum. EBIT and EBITDA margins remain strong, reflecting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a balanced approach to leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is healthy, suggesting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a solid capital structure. However, the increase in total debt over time warrants monitoring.

Cash Flow

Positive

Komatsu's cash flow performance is mixed, with a decline in free cash flow growth in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is moderate, indicating reasonable cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong, but the recent decline in free cash flow growth suggests potential liquidity challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.05T	4.10T	3.87T	3.54T	2.80T	2.19T
Gross Profit	1.30T	1.32T	1.21T	1.04T	779.58B	581.05B
EBITDA	807.16B	825.44B	787.01B	658.49B	473.14B	309.67B
Net Income	420.71B	439.26B	393.43B	326.40B	224.93B	106.24B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.85T	5.77T	5.64T	4.88T	4.35T	3.78T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	448.89B	385.57B	403.18B	289.98B	316.67B	243.13B
Total Debt	1.43T	1.22T	1.27T	1.12T	1.01T	965.85B
Total Liabilities	2.58T	2.43T	2.44T	2.20T	1.99T	1.77T
Stockholders Equity	3.10T	3.17T	3.03T	2.54T	2.23T	1.91T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	268.17B	311.31B	231.83B	22.94B	138.01B	172.58B
Operating Cash Flow	463.02B	517.17B	434.78B	206.47B	300.97B	354.13B
Investing Cash Flow	-216.93B	-210.67B	-204.42B	-169.52B	-143.57B	-163.06B
Financing Cash Flow	-247.76B	-321.42B	-122.04B	-66.61B	-93.87B	-199.67B

Komatsu Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price5166.00

Price Trends

50DMA

5222.75

Negative

100DMA

4986.92

Positive

200DMA

4617.77

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-21.78

Positive

RSI

44.50

Neutral

STOCH

23.43

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6301, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 5166 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5376.65, below the 50-day MA of 5222.75, and above the 200-day MA of 4617.77, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -21.78 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:6301.

Komatsu Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
6432	76 Outperform	¥306.62B	11.36	―	3.12%	0.31%	-11.04%
6395	73 Outperform	€137.17B	23.87	5.59%	3.01%	10.49%	-5.19%
6326	70 Outperform	$2.32T	13.52	7.16%	2.37%	-3.22%	-29.63%
6301	68 Neutral	¥4.76T	11.48	―	3.28%	0.40%	8.41%
6305	64 Neutral	$931.84B	10.66	10.54%	3.74%	-2.72%	29.43%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
7105	54 Neutral	¥164.69B	-80.47	―	1.56%	-4.63%	-109.64%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JP:6301

Komatsu Ltd.

5,166.00

1,133.20

28.10%

JP:6305

Hitachi Construction Machinery Co

4,517.00

1,238.87

37.79%

JP:6326

Kubota

2,105.50

215.75

11.42%

JP:6395

TADANO

1,031.00

-13.69

-1.31%

JP:6432

Takeuchi Mfg.Co., Ltd.

6,430.00

1,584.93

32.71%

JP:7105

Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd.

1,523.00

274.02

21.94%

Komatsu Ltd. Corporate Events

Komatsu Ltd. Announces Dividend Payment from Retained Earnings

Oct 29, 2025

Komatsu Ltd. has announced a dividend payment from retained earnings, with a record date of September 30, 2025. The dividend per share is set at JPY 95, reflecting the company’s policy of maintaining a consolidated payout ratio of 40% or higher. This move highlights Komatsu’s commitment to stable dividend payments and its strategic focus on strengthening its financial position to enhance corporate value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6301) stock is a Buy with a Yen6560.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Komatsu Ltd. stock, see the JP:6301 Stock Forecast page.

Komatsu Ltd. Reports Decline in Financial Performance Amidst Rising Comprehensive Income

Oct 29, 2025

Komatsu Ltd. reported a decline in financial performance for the first half of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, with net sales and operating income decreasing by 3.9% and 8.7% respectively compared to the previous year. Despite the downturn, comprehensive income saw a significant increase of 124.3% from the previous year, indicating potential resilience in certain areas of the business.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6301) stock is a Buy with a Yen6560.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Komatsu Ltd. stock, see the JP:6301 Stock Forecast page.

Komatsu Ltd. Announces Progress in Share Buyback Program

Oct 1, 2025

Komatsu Ltd. announced the status of its share buyback program, revealing that it repurchased 2,165,800 shares for approximately 11.16 billion yen between September 1 and September 30, 2025. This move is part of a larger plan approved by the Board of Directors to buy back up to 40 million shares, representing 4.3% of outstanding shares, by November 28, 2025, with a total budget of 100 billion yen. The buyback is conducted through the Tokyo Stock Exchange and reflects the company’s strategy to enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6301) stock is a Hold with a Yen5100.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Komatsu Ltd. stock, see the JP:6301 Stock Forecast page.

Komatsu Ltd. Reports Progress on Share Buyback Program

Sep 1, 2025

Komatsu Ltd. announced the status of its share buyback program, repurchasing 2,925,100 shares for approximately 14.5 billion yen from August 1 to August 31, 2025. This initiative is part of a larger plan approved by the Board of Directors to buy back up to 40 million shares, reflecting a strategic move to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6301) stock is a Hold with a Yen5300.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Komatsu Ltd. stock, see the JP:6301 Stock Forecast page.

Komatsu Ltd. Corrects Business Performance Presentation

Aug 6, 2025

Komatsu Ltd. announced corrections to its business performance presentation for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, specifically regarding projected tax rates for Japan. These corrections do not affect the overall sales and profit gains report, ensuring stakeholders that the company’s financial outlook remains stable.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6301) stock is a Hold with a Yen4000.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Komatsu Ltd. stock, see the JP:6301 Stock Forecast page.

Komatsu Announces Progress in Share Buyback Initiative

Aug 1, 2025

Komatsu Ltd. announced the status of its share buyback program, revealing that it repurchased 2,877,300 shares for approximately 14.1 billion yen between July 1 and July 31, 2025. This buyback is part of a broader initiative approved by the Board of Directors to repurchase up to 40 million shares, reflecting a strategic move to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6301) stock is a Hold with a Yen4000.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Komatsu Ltd. stock, see the JP:6301 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 01, 2025