Komatsu Ltd. (6301) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥5.35T
• Dividend Yield: 4.06%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.54M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.27
• Revenue Growth: 0.40%
• EPS Growth: 8.40%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 65,738
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Agricultural - Machinery
• EPS (TTM): 104.02
• Shares Outstanding: 930,340,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,633,020
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,544,656
• PEG Ratio: 0.66
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.26
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.97
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.83
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥6,000.00
• Price Target Upside: 20.00% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥6,463.00 ▲(29.26% Upside)

Komatsu Ltd. scores well in valuation due to its low P/E ratio and high dividend yield, making it attractive for value and income investors. However, the technical analysis indicates bearish market momentum, which is a concern. Financial performance is solid, but recent declines in revenue and free cash flow warrant caution. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events means these factors did not influence the score.

Positive Factors

Strong Profitability and Margins

Komatsu’s sustained gross and operating margins reflect structural scale and cost discipline across heavy equipment manufacturing. High margins provide durable earnings power, support reinvestment in R&D and services, and help absorb cyclical revenue swings over a multi‑quarter horizon.

Multi‑Year Revenue and Earnings Expansion

Material multi‑year growth demonstrates enduring demand and successful scale-up of core businesses. This track record indicates effective execution, rising market penetration, and operating leverage that can sustain earnings resilience through the next several quarters.

Recurring Aftermarket and Services Revenue

A sizeable installed base and connected services create recurring, higher‑margin revenue streams (parts, maintenance, telematics). This diversification reduces reliance on new equipment cycles and supports steadier cash flows and customer lock‑in over multiple quarters.

Negative Factors

Recent Revenue Momentum Slowdown

A notable deceleration in revenue growth weakens near‑term demand visibility for high‑ticket equipment. If prolonged, it can compress operating leverage and delay margin recovery, increasing execution risk for capital allocation and long‑term investment plans across the cycle.

Rising Leverage Reduces Flexibility

Higher leverage versus the prior year diminishes balance sheet optionality, making the company more sensitive to cyclical downturns. Elevated debt can constrain capital spending, M&A or buybacks and increase refinancing risk if equipment demand softens over the coming quarters.

Subpar Cash Conversion of Earnings

Free cash conversion trailing reported profits points to working‑capital swings and elevated investment absorption. Persistently lower cash conversion limits self‑funding of capex and servicing of higher debt, reducing financial resilience during industry cyclicality.

Komatsu Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Komatsu Ltd. manufactures and sells construction, mining, and utility equipment; and forest and industrial machinery worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Construction, Mining and Utility Equipment; Retail Finance; and Industrial Machinery and Others. It offers construction and mining equipment, including electric rope shovels, continuous miners, hydraulic excavators, wheel loaders, bulldozers, motor graders, dump trucks, mini excavators, utility equipment, and other mining equipment. The company also provides forklift trucks; forestry equipment, including harvesters, forwarders, and feller bunchers, as well as forestry-specific machines based on construction equipment; recycling equipment, such as mobile crushers, soil recyclers, and mobile tub grinders; tunneling machines, which comprise shield and tunnel-boring machines, as well as small diameter pipe jacking machines; and diesel engines, hydraulic equipment, and iron and steel castings products. In addition, it offers metal forging and stamping presses, including large presses, and small and medium-sized presses; sheet-metal machines, such as press brakes, shears, laser cutting machines, and fine plasma cutting machines; machine tools, which comprise crankshaft millers, transfer machines, machining centers, grinding machines, and wire saws; excimer lasers for semiconductor lithography tools; thermoelectric modules and temperature-control equipment for semiconductor manufacturing; and defense-related equipment, as well as provides warehousing and packing services. Further, the company provides other specific equipment for demolition, metal recycle, and slag handling; wear parts, periodic replacement parts, attachments, and remanufacturing parts; and retail financing for construction and mining equipment. Komatsu Ltd. was founded in 1884 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Komatsu generates revenue primarily through the sale of heavy equipment and machinery used in construction, mining, and other industrial sectors. The company's revenue model is driven by several key streams: first, the direct sale of new machinery, which constitutes a significant portion of its earnings; second, the sale of used equipment and parts; and third, after-sales services including maintenance and repair, which provide ongoing revenue. Additionally, Komatsu benefits from strategic partnerships with other companies in the construction and mining sectors, enhancing its market reach and product offerings. The company also invests in technology and innovation, such as automation and smart construction solutions, which are increasingly popular in the industry and contribute to its revenue growth.

Komatsu Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and multi-year growth (TTM revenue ~¥4.06T; gross ~31.5%, EBIT ~15.3%, net ~9.8%) support a solid score. Offsetting factors are a sharp slowdown in recent revenue momentum, rising leverage versus the latest annual period (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.47), and cash conversion that trails earnings (TTM FCF ~55% of net income).

Income Statement

Komatsu shows strong profitability and scale: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is ~¥4.06T with solid margins (gross ~31.5%, EBIT ~15.3%, net ~9.8%). Over the last several years, revenue and earnings have expanded materially (from ~¥2.19T revenue and ~¥106B net income in FY2021 to ~¥4.10T and ~¥439B in FY2025), indicating good operating leverage. The key watch-out is the sharp slowdown in recent top-line momentum (TTM revenue growth is notably below the prior year’s level), while margins are slightly softer than the latest annual period.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks generally healthy with moderate leverage: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) debt-to-equity is ~0.47 (up from ~0.38 in FY2025), and equity has grown to ~¥3.36T alongside a larger asset base (~¥6.31T). Returns remain solid (TTM return on equity ~13%), consistent with a well-run industrial manufacturer. The main weakness is rising debt versus the most recent annual report, which reduces flexibility if the cycle turns or demand weakens.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive but less robust than earnings: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is ~¥461B and free cash flow is ~¥252B, implying healthy absolute cash production. However, free cash flow is only ~55% of net income in TTM (and ~60% in FY2025), suggesting working-capital swings and/or elevated investment needs are absorbing cash. Free cash flow has improved versus prior years, but the consistency of converting profits into cash remains the key area to monitor.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.10T	3.87T	3.54T	2.80T	2.19T
Gross Profit	1.32T	1.21T	1.04T	779.58B	581.05B
EBITDA	825.44B	787.01B	658.49B	473.14B	309.67B
Net Income	439.26B	393.43B	326.40B	224.93B	106.24B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.77T	5.64T	4.88T	4.35T	3.78T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	385.57B	403.18B	289.98B	316.67B	243.13B
Total Debt	1.22T	1.27T	1.12T	1.01T	965.85B
Total Liabilities	2.43T	2.44T	2.20T	1.99T	1.77T
Stockholders Equity	3.17T	3.03T	2.54T	2.23T	1.91T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	311.31B	231.83B	22.94B	138.01B	172.58B
Operating Cash Flow	517.17B	434.78B	206.47B	300.97B	354.13B
Investing Cash Flow	-210.67B	-204.42B	-169.52B	-143.57B	-163.06B
Financing Cash Flow	-321.42B	-122.04B	-66.61B	-93.87B	-199.67B

Komatsu Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5000.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6301, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5000 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5528.20, below the 50-day MA of 5233.22, and above the 200-day MA of 4886.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 213.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 80.10 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.47 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:6301.

Komatsu Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
6326	76 Outperform	¥2.70T	15.55	7.16%	2.22%	-3.22%	-29.63%
6432	73 Outperform	¥304.71B	11.27	―	2.99%	0.31%	-11.04%
6301	68 Neutral	¥5.35T	13.60	―	4.06%	0.40%	8.40%
6305	68 Neutral	¥1.07T	14.18	10.54%	3.98%	-2.72%	29.43%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
6395	62 Neutral	¥144.40B	13.13	5.59%	2.86%	10.49%	-5.19%
7105	54 Neutral	¥166.82B	-81.85	―	1.56%	-4.63%	-109.63%

Komatsu Ltd. Corporate Events

Komatsu Posts Lower Nine-Month Profits but Maintains Full-Year Outlook and Dividend Plan

Komatsu reported a modest 1.4% decline in net sales to ¥2.92 trillion for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, with operating income down 10.1% and net income attributable to the parent falling 13.0% year on year, reflecting weaker profitability despite an increase in total assets and shareholder equity. While comprehensive income rose sharply by 33.1%, the company maintained its full-year projections, which still point to mid‑to‑high‑20% declines in profit metrics versus the prior year, and kept its annual dividend forecast unchanged at ¥190 per share, signaling a commitment to shareholder returns amid a softening earnings environment and stable financial position.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6301) stock is a Hold with a Yen6127.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Komatsu Ltd. stock, see the JP:6301 Stock Forecast page.

Komatsu Cancels ¥100 Billion Treasury Shares After Buyback Program

Komatsu Ltd. has completed the cancellation of 20,612,500 shares of its common stock, representing 2.2% of its outstanding shares prior to cancellation, effective December 29, 2025, reducing the total number of shares outstanding to 930,340,620. The canceled shares were acquired through a previously authorized share buyback program of up to 40 million shares or ¥100 billion conducted on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between April 30 and November 28, 2025, under which Komatsu repurchased 20,612,500 shares for approximately ¥100 billion, signaling continued capital management efforts that may support shareholder value and share price metrics through a smaller share base.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6301) stock is a Hold with a Yen5631.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Komatsu Ltd. stock, see the JP:6301 Stock Forecast page.

Komatsu Completes Share Buyback Program

Komatsu Ltd. has completed a share buyback program, repurchasing 2,684,900 shares of common stock for approximately 13.78 billion yen between November 1 and November 27, 2025. This move is part of a broader buyback plan authorized by the Board of Directors, aiming to repurchase up to 40 million shares, indicating a strategic effort to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6301) stock is a Hold with a Yen5631.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Komatsu Ltd. stock, see the JP:6301 Stock Forecast page.

Komatsu Ltd. Reports Progress on Share Buyback Initiative

Komatsu Ltd. has announced the status of its share buyback program, which is part of its strategic financial management. During October 2025, the company repurchased nearly 3 million shares at the Tokyo Stock Exchange, amounting to approximately 15.99 billion yen. This buyback is part of a larger plan approved by the Board of Directors to repurchase up to 40 million shares, with a total budget of 100 billion yen, aimed at enhancing shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6301) stock is a Hold with a Yen5631.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Komatsu Ltd. stock, see the JP:6301 Stock Forecast page.