Ame Kaze Taiyo,Inc. (5616) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥1.82B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 9.76K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.64
• Revenue Growth: -2.07%
• EPS Growth: 76.07%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 39
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Grocery Stores
• EPS (TTM): 21.24
• Shares Outstanding: 2,415,550
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 10,440
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,756
• PEG Ratio: 5.27
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.16
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.07
• P/FCF Ratio: -129.36
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 44 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥747.00 ▼(-15.11% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is held down primarily by continued losses and historically weak cash flow despite meaningful improvement in 2025, alongside a bearish technical setup (below major moving averages with negative MACD). Valuation is also constrained by a deeply negative P/E and no dividend support.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Sustained top-line expansion over multiple years indicates durable customer demand and market traction for the grocery business model. A larger revenue base improves the companies' ability to leverage fixed costs and supports a pathway to scalable profitability if operating cost control continues.

Narrowing Losses & Cash Burn

A sharp reduction in losses and a near break-even operating cash flow in 2025 reflect improving underlying operations and materially reduced cash burn. This trend enhances runway and reduces reliance on external financing, making sustained recovery toward consistent positive cash flow more plausible.

Improving Leverage

Declining absolute debt and stable equity show an improving balance sheet posture, which increases financial flexibility. Lower leverage relative to prior years reduces solvency risk and leaves more capacity for strategic investments or working-capital support as profitability recovers.

Negative Factors

Sustained Negative Profitability

Persistent negative EBIT and net income mean the company has not yet converted revenue gains into durable profitability. Continued losses erode shareholder value, limit internal funding for growth, and make the business reliant on external capital until operating margins sustainably turn positive.

Weak Cash Generation History

Historically negative operating and free cash flows, including a major 2024 outflow, signal weak cash-generation quality. Until OCF is consistently positive, the firm faces structural funding risk for operations and reinvestment, raising the chance of dilution or higher-cost financing.

Meaningful Leverage vs Earnings Base

Leverage remains material relative to a small or negative earnings base, increasing financial risk if operating volatility returns. With negative ROE, debt service and refinancing needs could constrain strategic options and hamper the firm's ability to invest in margin improvement initiatives.

Ame Kaze Taiyo,Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ame Kaze Taiyo, Inc. engages in providing food related services. It operates an app Pocket Marché, cooperating with local governments to implement initiatives to grow sales pipes for producers and providing study programs with producers. The company was founded by Hiroyuki Takahashi on February 10, 2015 and is headquartered in Hanamaki, Japan.

Ame Kaze Taiyo,Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth over several years and a sharp improvement in 2025 losses and cash burn are positives, but profitability remains negative (EBIT and net income still below zero) and operating/free cash flow have been consistently negative despite improving toward break-even in 2025. Balance sheet leverage is improving with declining debt, but losses have weighed on returns.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded meaningfully over the last several years (from ~¥445m in 2021 to ~¥1.03bn in 2025), showing demand traction. Profitability, however, remains the core issue: EBIT and net income are still negative in every period shown, despite a sharp improvement in 2025 (net loss narrowed to ~¥4m from ~¥164m in 2024). Gross profit is sizable, but operating costs continue to pressure results, leaving the earnings profile not yet consistently sustainable.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks mixed but improving on leverage. Total debt has come down from ~¥350m (2023) to ~¥250m (2025) while equity has been relatively stable (~¥346m in 2024–2025). That said, leverage is still meaningful for the current earnings base (debt was ~0.84x equity in 2024), and the business has generated negative returns on equity in recent years, reflecting that losses have been eroding shareholder value.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has been weak, with operating cash flow negative across the periods shown, including a very large outflow in 2024 (~-¥250m). Free cash flow has also been consistently negative, indicating the company has not yet self-funded operations and reinvestment. A positive sign is the major improvement in 2025 operating cash flow (near break-even at ~-¥4m) and a much smaller free cash flow deficit versus 2024, but overall cash flow quality remains a key risk until consistently positive.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.03B	1.02B	956.52M	635.99M	445.31M
Gross Profit	674.80M	659.72M	569.00M	478.24M	322.88M
EBITDA	-672.00K	-159.75M	-228.41M	-473.05M	-643.21M
Net Income	-4.15M	-163.87M	-182.52M	-322.18M	-568.22M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.01B	1.04B	1.29B	683.55M	606.44M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	458.16M	543.39M	882.97M	400.17M	322.19M
Total Debt	250.00M	290.00M	350.00M	115.02M	3.19M
Total Liabilities	661.17M	696.97M	840.89M	550.51M	442.69M
Stockholders Equity	345.80M	345.95M	449.83M	133.04M	163.75M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-16.46M	-255.39M	-241.76M	-315.14M	-617.12M
Operating Cash Flow	-4.45M	-250.02M	-241.76M	-313.41M	-615.98M
Investing Cash Flow	-44.78M	-89.50M	2.21M	-11.90M	-1.42M
Financing Cash Flow	-36.00M	-60.00K	722.35M	403.30M	3.33M

Ame Kaze Taiyo,Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 880.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:5616, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 880 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 815.55, above the 50-day MA of 868.60, and below the 200-day MA of 1034.89, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -28.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.60 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.20 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:5616.

Ame Kaze Taiyo,Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
2687	79 Outperform	¥2.40B	16.77	―	4.73%	2.93%	-81.08%
4380	78 Outperform	¥5.82B	14.34	―	1.65%	―	―
7544	69 Neutral	¥4.16B	14.44	―	2.18%	―	―
2747	62 Neutral	¥3.79B	-43.28	―	1.55%	0.42%	13.11%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
7515	48 Neutral	¥4.05B	25.11	―	0.67%	5.74%	14.35%
5616	44 Neutral	¥1.82B	-513.50	―	―	-2.07%	76.07%